Offseason Targets

[thxfrthmmrs]

13 hours ago, Ross Gload Fan said:

Rosario fielding highlights

A lowlight reel of any player is a bad indicator of their skillset, just as I could post videos of Mike Trout missing a catch or striking out to make him look like a bad fielder or hitter. Advanced metrics show that he's an average defender in left with a strong arm, and most of the negatives came from 2019 where he was playing with a bad ankle, he was able to rebound in 2020.

At the risk making it sound like I'm Rosario's agent, I think he's #2 best option after Springer at RF. Pederson is a more well rounded player if he puts it together, but there's too much boom or bust risk, and he's more of a platoon than Rosario. If signing Rosario to a reasonable short term deal would allow the Sox to go after Bauer, or a Kluber/Quintana combo with two closer quality RPs without dealing from the farm, then I am all for it. 

Edited December 2, 2020 by thxfrthmmrs

[asherwood12]

Just now, WBWSF said:

I've lived thru Bill Veecks trading Callison, Cash, Mincher, Romano and Battey after the 1959 season. It had devastating results on the White Sox franchise for years after that. I hope  they don't start trading there young talent again. Vaughn has so much upside, it would be nuts to trade him.

I'd typically agree with you, but you're getting Blake Snell, Proven star and Cy Young winner for many years.. 

[WBWSF]

Just now, asherwood12 said:

I'd typically agree with you, but you're getting Blake Snell, Proven star and Cy Young winner for many years.. 

I'd rather keep the young talent and sign Quintana.

[SonofaRoache]

3 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

I've lived thru Bill Veecks trading Callison, Cash, Mincher, Romano and Battey after the 1959 season. It had devastating results on the White Sox franchise for years after that. I hope  they don't start trading there young talent again. Vaughn has so much upside, it would be nuts to trade him.

This can all be avoided if we sign Bauer. Gio, Bauer, DK, Kopech, and Cease/Dunning should be enough to win in post season from a pitching perspective. You could then bring in a serviceable RF like JBJ, Eaton, or Joc to be more than a doormat against RHP. Add a few bullpen pieces and we'd be ready to compete for a championship without trading core pieces. 

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

A lowlight reel of any player is a bad indicator of their skillset, just as I could post videos of Mike Trout missing a catch or striking out to make him look like a bad fielder or hitter. Advanced metrics show that he's an average defender in left with a strong arm, and most of the negatives came from 2019 where he was playing with a bad ankle, he was able to rebound in 2020.

At the risk making it sound like I'm Rosario's agent, I think he's #2 best option after Springer at RF. Pederson is a more well rounded player if he puts it together, but there's too much boom or bust risk, and he's more of a platoon than Rosario. If signing Rosario to a reasonable short term deal would allow the Sox to go after Bauer, or a Kluber/Quintana combo with two closer quality RPs without dealing from the farm, then I am all for it. 

I'd love to see a reel of Mike Trout making bad plays in the field.

[Y2Jimmy0]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Like I said....I'm not completely sold on Vaughn. I have no doubts about him as a contact hitter, but I'm not sure he's a 30 HR guy. 

I could see him as a guy that hits .300+ every year with a ridiculous OBP but only hits 18-25 HR/season with 35-40 2B. 

I think a guy like Vaughn has value, but I'm not sure how much value he has as a 1B/DH only guy. 

The more I think about it, the more I lean toward him as a trade piece. 

What is your reasoning as to why he's not a 30 home run guy? What is the skepticism based on? 

[thxfrthmmrs]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I'd love to see a reel of Mike Trout making bad plays in the field.

It exists, I'm not going to pull it up. I have seen a 3 minute compilation of MJ missed dunks a while back.

Edited December 2, 2020 by thxfrthmmrs

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

What is your reasoning as to why he's not a 30 home run guy? What is the skepticism based on? 

The fact that he's skeptical/negative about everything?  

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

It exists, I'm not going to pull it up. I have seen a 3 minute compilation of MJ missed dunks a while back.

I very clearly remember MJ blowing dunks.  The difference is Rosarios D stats confirm his awfulness.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

7 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

What is your reasoning as to why he's not a 30 home run guy? What is the skepticism based on? 

I won't presume to answer for Jack but I do think the board is very highly optimistic on him and expect him to be with the Sox almost the whole year. That's asking a lot from a guy we last saw in A+. Sure there were glowing reports on him in Schaumburg but it's still a pretty big leap. I won't be the one, like Jack, to question his upside but I'm also not going to assume he's this mega force just waiting to be released on MLB.

I will now ruin this post by saying Yermin !!!

 

[thxfrthmmrs]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I very clearly remember MJ blowing dunks.  The difference is Rosarios D stats confirm his awfulness.

Which stat? He's career UZR/150 is at LF is 2.9, which is pretty respectable, would be even better if you look past the 2019 outlier where he had an injured ankle.

His 17 rARM (outfield runs saved above average) since 2016 leads all active LFs, his arm should be good enough for RF.

[Jack Parkman]

35 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

What is your reasoning as to why he's not a 30 home run guy? What is the skepticism based on? 

I've read reports that see him more as a 20 HR guy, but they all rave about his ability to hit and his approach at the plate. Could he be a 30+ HR guy? sure. I'm not convinced it's likely though. 

I think Youkilis is a good average comp.

In Youkilis's best power years, he hit 27 and 29 HR respectively, and the other years he was in the 16-19 range. 

Also, when Vaughn was in the minors after he was drafted he didn't destroy either level of A ball, so it makes me question him being MLB ready after not even going to AA yet, which is the real testing ground for a hitter. I want to see him at AA before making any judgments about his MLB readiness. If he destroys AA, sure bring him up. 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Which stat? He's career UZR/150 is at LF is 2.9, which is pretty respectable, would be even better if you look past the 2019 outlier where he had an injured ankle.

His 17 rARM (outfield runs saved above average) since 2016 leads all active LFs, his arm should be good enough for RF.

He's been a negative defensive player each of the last five years according to Dwar.  he has also been a negative UZR for 3 of the last 5 years.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

He's been a negative defensive player each of the last five years according to Dwar.  he has also been a negative UZR for 3 of the last 5 years.

You're parsing numbers here a lot. Yes he's been a negative defensive UZR in 3 of the last 5 years - in two of those years, he was -0.3 and -0.1, and that's also while counting time that he spent playing CF for 200 and then 50 innings in each of those years. 

[Jose Abreu]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Also, when Vaughn was in the minors after he was drafted he didn't destroy either level of A ball, so it makes me question him being MLB ready after not even going to AA yet, which is the real testing ground for a hitter. I want to see him at AA before making any judgments about his MLB readiness. If he destroys AA, sure bring him up. 

If you're going to base your opinion of him on a 126 PA sample, you need to have something more than just the results of the PAs. As someone who watched many of them, he was killing the ball and seemed to be pretty unlucky. He had a .270 BABIP which, for a player of his caliber, is probably at least 60 points below what it would actually be over a real sample at A+

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

If you're going to base your opinion of him on a 126 PA sample, you need to have something more than just the results of the PAs. As someone who watched many of them, he was killing the ball and seemed to be pretty unlucky. He had a .270 BABIP which, for a player of his caliber, is probably at least 60 points below what it would actually be over a real sample at A+

It still doesn't change the fact that he's likely a DH and so is Eloy. 

Vaughn is a very good prospect, but honestly I'd rather pencil Eloy in at DH and find other options for LF and as long as Abreu is productive, he's got 1B locked up. Abreu has worked on his defense and is adequate there now. 

What I saw from Vaughn during summer camp was Frank Thomas bad at 1B. 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

It still doesn't change the fact that he's likely a DH and so is Eloy. 

Where did that come from? I was under the impression that Vaughn should be a significant improvement in 1b fielding compared to Abreu.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Where did that come from? I was under the impression that Vaughn should be a significant improvement in 1b fielding compared to Abreu.

Read the Addendum. 

I saw a bit of Vaughn during summer camp and he looked like Hurt at 1B. Couldn't throw accurately, dropped a lot of balls, etc. He makes Abreu look like a Gold Glover, and Abreu has put in work to get to average at 1B now. 

[thxfrthmmrs]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

He's been a negative defensive player each of the last five years according to Dwar.  he has also been a negative UZR for 3 of the last 5 years.

Dwar includes positional adjustment, and so obviously he's going to get penalized for being a primarily LF. For comparison take, Alex Gordon, the greatest LF fielder of this generation, and winners of 4 straight GG, accumulated a total of 1 Dwar over the last 6 years.

And on UZR, do you really want to want make an argument based on the 2 years where he was barely negative? Most of which are attributed to his play in CF, which he shouldn't/won't be signed to play?

[Sleepy Harold]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Read the Addendum. 

I saw a bit of Vaughn during summer camp and he looked like Hurt at 1B. Couldn't throw accurately, dropped a lot of balls, etc. He makes Abreu look like a Gold Glover, and Abreu has put in work to get to average at 1B now. 

So Abreu improved his fielding as an "older" player, so why would Vaughn be unable to improve? He's not going to be Evan White or anything, but he's not a butcher either. 

[fathom]

7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Read the Addendum. 

I saw a bit of Vaughn during summer camp and he looked like Hurt at 1B. Couldn't throw accurately, dropped a lot of balls, etc. He makes Abreu look like a Gold Glover, and Abreu has put in work to get to average at 1B now. 

It was like two plays, he’ll be fine. 

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said:

So Abreu improved his fielding as an "older" player, so why would Vaughn be unable to improve? He's not going to be Evan White or anything, but he's not a butcher either. 

I'll disagree about him being a butcher. He's about as playable at 1B as Eloy is in LF. You can live with it because of the bat, but in a perfect world, he's a DH. 

What I saw from Vaughn he needs to put the glove away. 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Read the Addendum. 

I saw a bit of Vaughn during summer camp and he looked like Hurt at 1B. Couldn't throw accurately, dropped a lot of balls, etc. He makes Abreu look like a Gold Glover, and Abreu has put in work to get to average at 1B now. 

 

2 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said:

So Abreu improved his fielding as an "older" player, so why would Vaughn be unable to improve? He's not going to be Evan White or anything, but he's not a butcher either. 

I will admit that the world has slightly changed since 2019, but the scouting reports on his fielding weren't awful in 2019. Generally several places seem to rate his fielding at a 50 on the normal draft scale. 

Quote

Even though some will say he’s undersized for a first baseman (5’11”), Vaughn looks like a natural at the position. Good hands help him with scoops on low throws, even with below average speed Vaughn shows good range and has a strong arm. In 2017 and 2018, Vaughn pitched for Cal, and some believe that if he were just a little bit more athletic, you could put him in a corner outfield spot.

https://www.soxmachine.com/2019/04/25/mlb-draft-profile-andrew-vaughn/

[shakes]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

I'll disagree about him being a butcher. He's about as playable at 1B as Eloy is in LF. 

Sorry, this is nonsense. He played a very good 1B through college. He'll be a plus defender at 1B in time. You seeing a couple of bad spring training plays doesn't mean anything. 

And please produce the reports of him maxing out as a 20 homerun guy. It seems you have an irrational hate for Vaughn. 

[Sleepy Harold]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'll disagree about him being a butcher. He's about as playable at 1B as Eloy is in LF. You can live with it because of the bat, but in a perfect world, he's a DH. 

What I saw from Vaughn he needs to put the glove away. 

From what I saw of him at the Alt Site he looked fine over there. I think comparing his 1B defense to Eloy's LF defense is definitely a reach, but to each his own.