Offseason Targets

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Harold's Leg Lift said:

It ain't cheap. 

It is cheaper than Realmuto

[southsider2k5]

13 minutes ago, mqr said:

If it was a short one or two year deal, sure, I don't think that would really affect the Springer or Bauer situation all that much. You're also assuming a lot thinking they want to use money on those two. 

McCann was never coming back to the Sox.  Sure both parties said the right things, but someone is going to both pay him to be a starter, and offer him the time behind the plate as a starter.

[mqr]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

McCann was never coming back to the Sox.  Sure both parties said the right things, but someone is going to both pay him to be a starter, and offer him the time behind the plate as a starter.

I agree

[SoxBlanco]

1 hour ago, SoxBlanco said:

Can someone who is better at finding advanced stats and splits better than I can do a comparison of what we can expect from a Joc/Engel platoon vs what we can expect from Springer for a 162 game season?

Alright, I gave this an attempt using 2019 stats. Here is Springer vs platoon splits of Joc/Engel:

Springer: 556 PA, 39 HR, 0.974 OPS, 156 wRC+

Joc/Engel: 553 PA, 38 HR, 0.907 OPS, 135 wRC+

Edited December 3, 2020 by SoxBlanco

[Vulture]

Is that PA or ABs for Pederson/Engel. I'm seeing 479 ABs not PA for Springer

Edited December 3, 2020 by Vulture

[SoxBlanco]

3 minutes ago, Vulture said:

Is that PA or ABs for Pederson/Engel. I'm seeing 479 ABs not PA for Springer

Good catch, and that makes it even better because now the PA’s are almost identical in the comparison. I’ll edit it. 

I originally had PA for Joc/Engel but AB for Springer accidentally. 

Edited December 3, 2020 by SoxBlanco

[maloney.adam]

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yeah, I disagree with you. Signing an perma-cripple whose numbers are inflated by Coors Field is a bad idea, IMO.

His splits are pretty telling: Dahl career splits A (snicker) 111 wrc+ AT Coors Field? A pathetic 87 wrc+ away? Put in more GLARING terms, an awesome.918 OPS in Coors, but a pathetic OPS of .722 away. (And remember, we'd be getting more of the .722 OPS, since The Rate is away from Coors.)

He only has a 109 wrc+ career against RHP, which really ain't that good, since some of that would have come at Coors. 

Also, his DRS is negative at all OF spots.

 

Also, the fact that Colorado gave up on him must mean that his injuries are more significant than one might suspect at first glance.

 

Were this the 2018-2019 SOX, Dahl might have been worth a gamble. But for the 2021 SOX, he's EXACTLY the wrong player for RF, IMO.

I expect a lot of concern over his injuries. I can understand that. But I looked at DJ Lemahieu's numbers from 2016, his best year with the Rockies at age 27, before he went to the Yankees. Before and after 2016 his highest OPS was .786 with the Rockies. Going to Yankee Stadium didn't hurt him at all. In fact he's had the best 2 seasons of his career. It's pretty simplistic to say we'd get more of his away stats because we are away from Coors. I think you know enough about baseball to know that Home stats are often much better than Road stats for many many players. You can see below how vastly different Lemahieu's stats were in his best season pre Yankees.

I also looked at Dahl's defense on Baseball Savant which uses Statcasts Outs Above Average. 2019 he played more games than he ever had so I view it as the best year to look at his defensive stats. He played all OF positions but had the most attempts in CF. He was a 2 in Runs Prevented and a 2 in Outs Above Average which is a positive.

If you're going to use the Coors Effect be aware there is also a Reverse Coors affect: Mike Petriello at MLB.com, for example, looked at several players with substantial careers both in Colorado and elsewhere, and found the ex-Rockies’ performance on the road rebounding once Coors wasn’t their home field. https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-other-coors-effect/

There is also this older article at Fangraphs that talks about when position players get away from Coors in which ,again, you shouldn't be expecting terrible thins once a player leaves Coors. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/when-position-players-get-away-from-coors-field/

Anyway these are Lemaheiu's Home/Road stats in his best season at Coors.

Season	Home / Away	BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wRC	wRAA	wOBA	wRC+
2016	Home	13.7%	9.9%	1.39	.391	.473	.591	1.064	.199	.420	76	36.4	.450	154
2016	Away	6.7%	15.7%	0.43	.303	.353	.395	.747	.092	.351	37	1.9	.326	101

[RagahRagah]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Harold also thinks the Sox desperately want McCann back (at starter dollars) and would still keep Grandal around for some reason.  He clearly has access to some inside info, but let’s not assume everything he says is gospel.  Even the best insiders get shit wrong.  Also, James has just as good of a track record and says we’re still in the mix so no one should be losing hope yet.

I love James but I'm not sure why they would pay serious money to keep him when they are paying good money for a top 3 catcher and have desperate needs elsewhere. Unless they really are gonna go all out and I highly doubt that.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

I love James but I'm not sure why they would pay serious money to keep him when they are paying good money for a top 3 catcher and have desperate needs elsewhere. Unless they really are gonna go all out and I highly doubt that.

Sorry if I wasn’t clear, but Harold is the one saying we’re desperate to bring back McCann and thinks Springer is not happening, while James thinks bringing back McCann would be a waste of resources and that we’re actively pursuing Springer.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Sorry if I wasn’t clear, but Harold is the one saying we’re desperate to bring back McCann and thinks Springer is not happening, while James thinks bringing back McCann would be a waste of resources and that we’re actively pursuing Springer.

James McCann

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

James McCann

Reading comprehension is clearly a problem for me...lol

[Harold's Leg Lift]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Sorry if I wasn’t clear, but Harold is the one saying we’re desperate to bring back McCann and thinks Springer is not happening, while James thinks bringing back McCann would be a waste of resources and that we’re actively pursuing Springer.

Only a fucking idiot would frame this as a me vs James thing.  Grow up you fuckin weirdo.  

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Only a fucking idiot would frame this as a me vs James thing.  Grow up you fuckin weirdo.  

Lol...I’m the weirdo for misreading a post, whereas you have a perverse hatred of Nick Madrigal because he’s short.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You need to consider the hangover effect for Rockies hitters when on the road.

Thanks for that. I think the whole Coors Effect is overblown. I did answer him using several articles from fangraphs and Hardball Times about how players do after leaving Coors and the hangover Effect. LeMahieu got better after he left Coors . I can see how he answered you that he thinks  Dahl's  Rockie road stats would follow him to GRF because GRF is "away" from Coors and created a number only slightly higher to fit his narrative.

I don't expect the Sox to sign him because they will make a decision on RF long before Dahl can pass a physical and sign. But I truly believe that someone will get quite the steal on him if he can stay on the field .

However staying healthy is a HUGE factor even more so than trying to convince someone that the guy can rake and play his position well and for that reason alone he isn't much of an option.

[Bob Sacamano]

This board is in dire need of a move.

[bmags]

13 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:

This board is in dire need of a move.

Man every time people say this we end up signing everth Cabrera or some shit

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I expect a lot of concern over his injuries. I can understand that. But I looked at DJ Lemahieu's numbers from 2016, his best year with the Rockies at age 27, before he went to the Yankees. Before and after 2016 his highest OPS was .786 with the Rockies. Going to Yankee Stadium didn't hurt him at all. In fact he's had the best 2 seasons of his career. It's pretty simplistic to say we'd get more of his away stats because we are away from Coors. I think you know enough about baseball to know that Home stats are often much better than Road stats for many many players. You can see below how vastly different Lemahieu's stats were in his best season pre Yankees.

I also looked at Dahl's defense on Baseball Savant which uses Statcasts Outs Above Average. 2019 he played more games than he ever had so I view it as the best year to look at his defensive stats. He played all OF positions but had the most attempts in CF. He was a 2 in Runs Prevented and a 2 in Outs Above Average which is a positive.

If you're going to use the Coors Effect be aware there is also a Reverse Coors affect: Mike Petriello at MLB.com, for example, looked at several players with substantial careers both in Colorado and elsewhere, and found the ex-Rockies’ performance on the road rebounding once Coors wasn’t their home field. https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-other-coors-effect/

There is also this older article at Fangraphs that talks about when position players get away from Coors in which ,again, you shouldn't be expecting terrible thins once a player leaves Coors. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/when-position-players-get-away-from-coors-field/

Anyway these are Lemaheiu's Home/Road stats in his best season at Coors.

Season	Home / Away	BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wRC	wRAA	wOBA	wRC+
2016	Home	13.7%	9.9%	1.39	.391	.473	.591	1.064	.199	.420	76	36.4	.450	154
2016	Away	6.7%	15.7%	0.43	.303	.353	.395	.747	.092	.351	37	1.9	.326	101

To continue how the Reverse Coor Effect works all you really have to look at is the BB% and K %

The theory goes that pitches move less at Coors Field. This makes it a lot easier to see where the pitches are going to end up. You end up judging balls better meaning you walk more and K less. You also hit the ball a lot better. LeMahieu's walks went way down on the road as and his K's went way up. See it better hit it better. Pretty simple. It's really a more significant factor than the altitude.

Now when these same players go on the road all of a sudden the ball is moving all over the place so the adjustment to Road baseball is a lot harder than going from all other Home fields to all other away fields.

Edited December 4, 2020 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[SoxBlanco]

I’m starting to think an offseason of Joc, a couple of mid-tier starters (Quintana and Richards, for example), and a reliever (maybe Colome) is a likely outcome. I know most people would consider that a huge disappointment, but I wouldn’t hate it. We would be taking a 35-25 club, replacing EE and Mazara with Vaughn and Joc/Engel, adding some depth to the rotation, and giving Dunning, Cease, and Kopech a chance to develop/compete for a spot in the rotation. 

Look, I want Bauer or Springer as much as anyone, but if we don’t land one, it won’t be the end of the world like a lot of people here will make it out to be. It would also give us a lot of flexibility to add a starter at the trade deadline or next offseason. 

[whitesoxbrad]

1 hour ago, maloney.adam said:

 

My pick for right field if they go the trade route is Mike yastrzemski, just love everything about him, what do you think?

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, whitesoxbrad said:

My pick for right field if they go the trade route is Mike yastrzemski, just love everything about him, what do you think?

I’d think he’d be quite expense even when considering his age.  I’d rather trade for a starter than burn prospect capital on a RF.

[Dam8610]

7 minutes ago, whitesoxbrad said:

My pick for right field if they go the trade route is Mike yastrzemski, just love everything about him, what do you think?

Wouldn't the price for him be astronomical? I would think that would require a piece the Sox shouldn't trade like Vaughn or Kopech.

[maxjusttyped]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’d think he’d be quite expense even when considering his age.  I’d rather trade for a starter than burn prospect capital on a RF.

Austin Nola is a reasonable comp for Yaz and the price to acquire him was enormous. 1 top ~60 prospect with several other pieces that had significant value heading to Seattle as well.

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I expect a lot of concern over his injuries. I can understand that. But I looked at DJ Lemahieu's numbers

It's pretty simplistic to say we'd get more of his away stats because we are away from Coors.

Ok, so you're using another player (DJ Lemahieu) to justify acquiring a perma-cripple with decidedly pedestrian numbers? Are you serious?

Congratulations! You've successfully deployed  The Chewbacca Defense!

Weren't you also in favor of the Mazara acquisition? 

 

No offense, but squandering time and money on DL Dahl would be fooking stoopud. He honestly ain't that good, and he's always injured. Besides Springer (who I dont think the SOX will sign), there are several better options available.

Joc, JBJ, and FFS, since they're keeping (alleged) rapist Boston around, why not go full heel, and sign Puig?

Oh yeah: speeding tickets or something. 

Fuck, I'd rather re-acquire Avi than waste time and money and effort getting a guy like Dahl who honestly sucks away from Coors, and whose splits v RHP are artificially inflated because of Coors. He offers nothing to a team thats ready to compete. 

 

Dahl, like Mazara and Rodon, need to go to a tanking/rebuilding team to rescue their MLB careers. Underperforming perma-cripples don't need to be anywhere near a team that's trying to win.

[southsider2k5]

A post with the term perma-cripple, yet calling someone else fooking stoopid.

That is some comments section level of cognitive dissonance. 

Just, wow.