Offseason Targets

[hi8is]

56 minutes ago, KonerkoFan1 said:

Well, sure. But why would we be aiming for a 1 year deal?

Age? Injury concerns?

[RagahRagah]

4 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Age? Injury concerns?

You can at least go for 2 years.

[Flash]

6 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Yeah absolutely not.  I wouldn't trade any of those first 3 straight up.

Don't mean to flog this to death but it got me thinking...is there any pitcher (assuming JR would agree to $30M+/yr. for Cole, DeGrom, Kershaw, Scherzer, etc.) who Sox fans would be okay trading Eloy straight up for? maybe Bieber?

[hi8is]

4 minutes ago, Flash said:

Don't mean to flog this to death but it got me thinking...is there any pitcher (assuming JR would agree to $30M+/yr. for Cole, DeGrom, Kershaw, Scherzer, etc.) who Sox fans would be okay trading Eloy straight up for? maybe Bieber?

Eloy ( 6 years ) + SP FA #3 Type > Ace ( ~2 years ) + FA LF

Edited October 16, 2020 by hi8is

[ChiSox1917]

8 hours ago, striker said:

Bauer strikes out more and markets himself more, but from straight performance Storman and Gausman have performed more consistently and Stroman has actually out performed Bauer on a more consistent basis (FIP).

I like Stroman more because he is a GB pitcher, career 58% vs 41% for Bauer.  Gausman is the least popular one and one whose FIP is trending in the right direction. Gausman could result in similar performance as the other two but cost less, which shouldn't be but is a factor.

Savant likes all three, but Stroman is best at weak contact, which to me is a more sustainable approach.

How much of gausmans trend in the right direction is a result of playing at oracle park this year?  His FIP and xFIP were miniscule at home, but closer to his career average of around 4 on the road.  Dont get me wrong, i like him, but hes a #3/4 pitcher.  

stroman just scares me cause of his build.  I know thats been the concern about him his whole career and hes been great, but it just worries me how he’ll hold up going forward.

bauer is the safest bet to be an ace going forward.  With the exception of 2019, hes steadily gotten better every year.

10 minutes ago, Flash said:

Don't mean to flog this to death but it got me thinking...is there any pitcher (assuming JR would agree to $30M+/yr. for Cole, DeGrom, Kershaw, Scherzer, etc.) who Sox fans would be okay trading Eloy straight up for? maybe Bieber?

Nola, woodruff, marquez, or castillo.  Eloy wouldnt be enough to get any of them straight up though IMO.

[hi8is]

30 minutes ago, ChiSox1917 said:

Nola

Too bad we didn’t draft him instead of Rodon like some here feared we would.

[HaroldSouthside]

Max Scherzer. 
 

Nationals payroll will be north of $150M coming off COVID revenue losses. Consensus is The Washington Baseball Team has the worst farm system in baseball. Scherzer is owed $34.5M on a team that is going absolutely no where next year. 
 

Stiever, another good young arm and 2 lottery tickets ??? Is that enough? Too much?

 

its just a thought as I sit here drinking a beer(s) watching the Braves / Dodgers 

[Flash]

12 minutes ago, HaroldSouthside said:

Max Scherzer. 
 

Nationals payroll will be north of $150M coming off COVID revenue losses. Consensus is The Washington Baseball Team has the worst farm system in baseball. Scherzer is owed $34.5M on a team that is going absolutely no where next year. 
 

Stiever, another good young arm and 2 lottery tickets ??? Is that enough? Too much?

 

its just a thought as I sit here drinking a beer(s) watching the Braves / Dodgers 

Guessing Nats would love to offload that commitment (1 yr. left) but they would have to eat a meaningful amt. of the $34M, depending on the player(s) we send.

[HaroldSouthside]

6 minutes ago, Flash said:

Guessing Nats would love to offload that commitment (1 yr. left) but they would have to eat a meaningful amt. of the $34M, depending on the player(s) we send.

Yep, and in the recent past I would have said no way Jerry is adding significant payroll on pitching, but the Sox seem different lately. Maybe Jerry really will spend some money on pitching.       MAYBE.

[TheCommish]

6 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I'm not sure you sign a single guy to one of those contracts honestly..... Literally..

Also, why only short term deals?

Short term deals because they are all on the opposite side of 30. Why lock in older guys when we will need to lock up our own stars?

[Flash]

9 hours ago, ChiSox1917 said:

How much of gausmans trend in the right direction is a result of playing at oracle park this year?  His FIP and xFIP were miniscule at home, but closer to his career average of around 4 on the road.  Dont get me wrong, i like him, but hes a #3/4 pitcher.  

stroman just scares me cause of his build.  I know thats been the concern about him his whole career and hes been great, but it just worries me how he’ll hold up going forward.

bauer is the safest bet to be an ace going forward.  With the exception of 2019, hes steadily gotten better every year.

Nola, woodruff, marquez, or castillo.  Eloy wouldnt be enough to get any of them straight up though IMO.

I'd add Fried, Flaherty, Buehler, Lamet in addition to Burnes. I doubt Elloy would be enough for any straight up. Other than Bauer, no FA pitcher is a needle mover. If we need another top rotation arm (I am in this camp), we will need to trade. We have depth at DH and Eloy has premium trade value despite the visceral reaction to trading him. 

[Jnooch]

Switching gears to offense would anyone step outside the box and consider Tommy La Stella in RF and insurance at 2nd base or 3rd base. LH bat who never strikes out and can be a force between Anderson & Moncada.

 

Anderson

Moncada

Abreu

Jiminez

Grandal

Robert 

Vaughn

La Stella

Madrigal

 

Bench Engle, Leury, Collins, 
Final Piece (pick one) Sanchez. Mendick, Mercedes, Rutheford, etc.

 

would not cost a ton and would allow us to pursue  pitching.

Edited October 16, 2020 by Jnooch

[Jnooch]

2 minutes ago, Jnooch said:

Switching gears to offense would anyone step outside the box and consider Tommy La Stella in RF and insurance at 2nd base or 3rd base. LH bat who never strikes out and can be a force between Anderson & Moncada.

 

Anderson

Moncada

Abreu

Jiminez

Grandal

Robert 

Vaughn

La Stella

Madrigal

 

Bench Engle, Leury, Collins, 
Final Piece (pick one) Sanchez. Mendick, Mercedes, Rutheford, etc.

Vaughn, LaStella and Madrigal barely strike out and would set the table for the big bats.

would not cost a ton and would allow us to pursue  pitching.

 

[ChiSox59]

In an ideal world, we acquire our RF for the next half decade plus this offseason. We have no one in the minors who projects to take that role during this window of contention.

I want SP too, and you can never have enough. But I feel like we project pretty solid there into the future that adding one mid rotation starter to a multi year deal and a back end guy on a 1 year deal is plenty if coupled with a legit RF acquisition.  

[Flash]

5 minutes ago, Jnooch said:

Switching gears to offense would anyone step outside the box and consider Tommy La Stella in RF and insurance at 2nd base or 3rd base. LH bat who never strikes out and can be a force between Anderson & Moncada.

 

Anderson

Moncada

Abreu

Jiminez

Grandal

Robert 

Vaughn

La Stella

Madrigal

 

Bench Engle, Leury, Collins, 
Final Piece (pick one) Sanchez. Mendick, Mercedes, Rutheford, etc.

 

would not cost a ton and would allow us to pursue  pitching.

Can LaStella play RF?

[steveno89]

17 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

i THINK I would rather have Joc on a 2 year deal or something than Brantley on 1.  Honestly his defenses scares the bajesus out of me.. I'd hate to have another bad OF in the corner.

Joc was pretty terrible in 2020 for what it is worth

[fathom]

A trade for Kole Calhoun for one year makes sense if they want a lefty power guy.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

16 hours ago, iWiN4PreP said:

I appreciate your work here... you’ve moved me in a more optimistic position on stroman and gaussman. Im a bit reluctant to concede on the matter based on just a few statistics, but you’ve given me a seed to think about on these two guys with a solid argument. Cheers

My problem with Gausman, as someone who has watched a lot of Gaus over the past few years, is he's a worser version of Javier Vazquez (low stranded rate, elevated HR rate, higher ERA than FIP); that's my favorite comp. Gausman has always been tantalizing because his stuff has been + but he's always gotten in trouble. For a while, the thought was Baltimore had just ruined another arm but then he went to Atlanta and was awful. Now, the changes could have taken time, and he was fantastic this year with the Giants - some of the best KK/BB rates in the game - but that ballpark helps a lot of shitty arms look better... although it couldn't help too much with the K's.

I'd take Gausman over Stroman because I've always been a huge fan of the tools, and it's POSSIBLE - similarly to how I felt about Wheeler last year but on a smaller level - that Gausman actually has his best years in his low-mid 30's as a pitcher as he finally learned how to use his stuff and his mind to get batters out. Small pitchers really don't age as well either; Stroman already has broken barriers with his height, but I don't want to bank on a guy of his stature aging well.

I'm not a fan of Bauer for what he'll cost; he's inconsistent, and a me-first guy. He cheated this year to increase his spin rate - don't mistaken that, he told you himself. That means his results are slightly artificial to me, if people want to enforce the substance on the ball rule for once.

Edited October 16, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[striker]

5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

My problem with Gausman, as someone who has watched a lot of Gaus over the past few years, is he's a worser version of Javier Vazquez; that's my favorite comp. Gausman has always been tantalizing because his stuff has been + but he's always gotten in trouble. For a while, the thought was Baltimore had just ruined another arm but then he went to Atlanta and was awful. Now, the changes could have taken time, and he was fantastic this year with the Giants - some of the best KK/BB rates in the game - but that ballpark helps a lot of shitty arms look better... although it couldn't help too much with the K's.

I'd take Gausman over Stroman because I've always been a huge fan of the tools, and it's POSSIBLE - similarly to how I felt about Wheeler last year but on a smaller level - that Gausman actually has his best years in his low-mid 30's as a pitcher as he finally learned how to use his stuff and his mind to get batters out. 

I'm not a fan of Bauer for what he'll cost; he's inconsistent, and a me-first guy. He cheated this year to increase his spin rate - don't mistaken that, he told you himself. That means his results are slightly artificial to me, if people want to enforce the substance on the ball rule for once.

I think the important differentiator between Stroman, Bauer and Gausman is price and what you can do with that other $. You might be able to get Bauer but not have enough to fill other holes. If you go with Gausman then maybe you can also afford Quintana or Walker, given you a lower end but deeper rotation. I prefer the depth approach over ceiling. Depth helps get you to the playoffs more than ceiling, just ask DeGrom.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

22 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Joc was pretty terrible in 2020 for what it is worth

It's worth nothing.  It was barely a 1/3 of a regular season.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

11 minutes ago, striker said:

I think the important differentiator between Stroman, Bauer and Gausman is price and what you can do with that other $. You might be able to get Bauer but not have enough to fill other holes. If you go with Gausman then maybe you can also afford Quintana or Walker, given you a lower end but deeper rotation. I prefer the depth approach over ceiling. Depth helps get you to the playoffs more than ceiling, just ask DeGrom.

Yeah, I agree to an extent. If you could get a DeGrom over depth at SP I'd likely do that. I just don't think Bauer is in that group.

I'd like Gausman/Quintana over Bauer as well..

[Dominikk85]

36 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

My problem with Gausman, as someone who has watched a lot of Gaus over the past few years, is he's a worser version of Javier Vazquez (low stranded rate, elevated HR rate, higher ERA than FIP); that's my favorite comp. Gausman has always been tantalizing because his stuff has been + but he's always gotten in trouble. For a while, the thought was Baltimore had just ruined another arm but then he went to Atlanta and was awful. Now, the changes could have taken time, and he was fantastic this year with the Giants - some of the best KK/BB rates in the game - but that ballpark helps a lot of shitty arms look better... although it couldn't help too much with the K's.

I'd take Gausman over Stroman because I've always been a huge fan of the tools, and it's POSSIBLE - similarly to how I felt about Wheeler last year but on a smaller level - that Gausman actually has his best years in his low-mid 30's as a pitcher as he finally learned how to use his stuff and his mind to get batters out. Small pitchers really don't age as well either; Stroman already has broken barriers with his height, but I don't want to bank on a guy of his stature aging well.

I'm not a fan of Bauer for what he'll cost; he's inconsistent, and a me-first guy. He cheated this year to increase his spin rate - don't mistaken that, he told you himself. That means his results are slightly artificial to me, if people want to enforce the substance on the ball rule for once.

The giants ballpark isn't all that pitcher friendly anymore, they moved in some fences and it played much more neutral this year. No launching pad but also not an extreme pitchers park anymore 

[YourWhatHurts]

32 minutes ago, striker said:

I think the important differentiator between Stroman, Bauer and Gausman is price and what you can do with that other $. You might be able to get Bauer but not have enough to fill other holes. If you go with Gausman then maybe you can also afford Quintana or Walker, given you a lower end but deeper rotation. I prefer the depth approach over ceiling. Depth helps get you to the playoffs more than ceiling, just ask DeGrom.

The ideal model for this rotation will be proven excellence at the top and open spots at the back saved for the developement of our other players.  We already have Keuchel as a depth piece even though he pitched like a top end guy this season.  There should be an attempt to make one addition at the front end and then give Cease and Dunning a spot.  Stroman and Bauer aren't really the ideal top end guys but they're good enough to slot in near the top of this rotation.  

Even if the idea is to one day trade Dunning, if you give him a full season to establish himself at the MLB level then maybe he could be a 1st piece or a big second piece in a deal next year.  We really need to manage the pieces we are trading well.  The farm system quality is going to drop off very fast after our top few guys and it's hard to replenish it while contending.  If we manage things well, we should be able to smartly develop players and then trade others after they have proven to be MLB pieces for the chance to turn the window into a 6-8 year contention window instead of otherwise, which would be like a 3-5 year window only.

[bmags]

43 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

My problem with Gausman, as someone who has watched a lot of Gaus over the past few years, is he's a worser version of Javier Vazquez (low stranded rate, elevated HR rate, higher ERA than FIP); that's my favorite comp. Gausman has always been tantalizing because his stuff has been + but he's always gotten in trouble. For a while, the thought was Baltimore had just ruined another arm but then he went to Atlanta and was awful. Now, the changes could have taken time, and he was fantastic this year with the Giants - some of the best KK/BB rates in the game - but that ballpark helps a lot of shitty arms look better... although it couldn't help too much with the K's.

I'd take Gausman over Stroman because I've always been a huge fan of the tools, and it's POSSIBLE - similarly to how I felt about Wheeler last year but on a smaller level - that Gausman actually has his best years in his low-mid 30's as a pitcher as he finally learned how to use his stuff and his mind to get batters out. Small pitchers really don't age as well either; Stroman already has broken barriers with his height, but I don't want to bank on a guy of his stature aging well.

I'm not a fan of Bauer for what he'll cost; he's inconsistent, and a me-first guy. He cheated this year to increase his spin rate - don't mistaken that, he told you himself. That means his results are slightly artificial to me, if people want to enforce the substance on the ball rule for once.

On the other hand, sox really seem to be in a groove with ground ball pitchers. OTOH, will we have to deal with a pitcher in stroman that might not be able to complete the season due to no pitches thrown this year?

I think I'd be okay with Gausman, I don't like how poor his fastball does even though it should be better but I always love splitfinger pitchers since Jose Contreras. Some combo of gausman, Stroman, Odorizzi is entirely acceptable to me. Especially because they are so easy to spin off if a better pitcher becomes available.

[YourWhatHurts]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

On the other hand, sox really seem to be in a groove with ground ball pitchers. OTOH, will we have to deal with a pitcher in stroman that might not be able to complete the season due to no pitches thrown this year?

I think I'd be okay with Gausman, I don't like how poor his fastball does even though it should be better but I always love splitfinger pitchers since Jose Contreras. Some combo of gausman, Stroman, Odorizzi is entirely acceptable to me. Especially because they are so easy to spin off if a better pitcher becomes available.

The Sox already have Cease, Dunning, Kopech, Stiever, and Crochet at or near the MLB level with Kelly, Thompson, Dalquist, and Vera potentially 2-3 years behind them.  I really don't see why adding 2 of those types helps us win later.  We should be trying to win now and later, and we can't win later if we fail to give opportunities to our own player.  Notice I am already completely omitting Reynaldo which at least some other teams wouldn't do.

Just think about the Cubs for a second.  Their fans have to be excited about Alec Mills, in part because he threw a no-no.  He's got less upside than Phil Humber did.  We're in a great position so we shouldn't ruin it.  We have a list of guys who could be as good or better than all of three of those names by 2022 or even a couple by next year.