Offseason Targets

[Flash]

I believe the economic environment will remain uncertain and probably net negative. There will be moves made but I see it as unlikely for the Sox to commit to Bauer or anyone with a significant price tag save for a mid-priced rotation piece or two (Quintana, Smiley, Paxton, etc.). I do think it is reasonable to expect trades and quite possible we target a RF'r and or starting pitcher for a package of minor league assets. I can see us pursuing Lance Lynn for a package led by Stiever plus. 

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Flash said:

I believe the economic environment will remain uncertain and probably net negative. There will be moves made but I see it as unlikely for the Sox to commit to Bauer or anyone with a significant price tag save for a mid-priced rotation piece or two (Quintana, Smiley, Paxton, etc.). I do think it is reasonable to expect trades and quite possible we target a RF'r and or starting pitcher for a package of minor league assets. I can see us pursuing Lance Lynn for a package led by Stiever plus. 

I think our financial situation is much better than people probably realize.  Obviously the pandemic will have an impact, but I think we’ll able our financial assets before we need to start trading our limited minor league capital.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

I think our financial situation is much better than people probably realize.  Obviously the pandemic will have an impact, but I think we’ll able our financial assets before we need to start trading our limited minor league capital.

I agree with this but they'd also have to pay the players that they trade for. People act like it's either or. 

[Flash]

15 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I agree with this but they'd also have to pay the players that they trade for. People act like it's either or. 

No doubt, but unlikely they trade for anyone attached to an outsized financial commitment. My only caveat is if they hire TLR to a short term (2yrs) deal. He and JR might want to go out with a bang. No other reason to entertain LaRussa or for LaRussa to take the job.

[Chicago White Sox]

33 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I agree with this but they'd also have to pay the players that they trade for. People act like it's either or. 

Fully agree.  Just saying hopefully we can go sign someone at market value rather than trade for someone who may provide some surplus value.

[Flash]

According to Hahn, MLB will lose >$3B in 2020. While thats an avg of $100M/team. Teams that rely on ticket sales for the bulk of revenue will suffer the most. I don't know how much the Sox will lose in 2020 but hard to see any team anxious to add to their losses in 2021 and my guess is teams will go the other way. In Sox case, they shed significant payroll that can be reallocated to fill most urgent needs. Will be interesting to see what happens with Colome. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think our financial situation is much better than people probably realize.  Obviously the pandemic will have an impact, but I think we’ll able our financial assets before we need to start trading our limited minor league capital.

So entering year 2 of the contention years, still in a pandemic and next year is CBA /possible strike how do you see the Sox payroll ? Do you think it ever gets up to $150M ? Is it higher lower or the same (Approx. $120) for next year ?

[oneofthemikes]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

So entering year 2 of the contention years, still in a pandemic and next year is CBA /possible strike how do you see the Sox payroll ? Do you think it ever gets up to $150M ? Is it higher lower or the same (Approx. $120) for next year ?

I think that Ricky's firing is a sign that the Sox are going to get really serious about winning it all and that the payroll will reflect that. My gut says that somewhere in the neighborhood of $140M is where we end up this season.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

9 minutes ago, Flash said:

According to Hahn, MLB will lose >$3B in 2020. While thats an avg of $100M/team. Teams that rely on ticket sales for the bulk of revenue will suffer the most. I don't know how much the Sox will lose in 2020 but hard to see any team anxious to add to their losses in 2021 and my guess is teams will go the other way. In Sox case, they shed significant payroll that can be reallocated to fill most urgent needs. Will be interesting to see what happens with Colome. 

This sentiment is being echoed throughout baseball. It's fairly obvious owners are telling fans and maybe even the players that teams will be biting the bullet. To me it tells the players sign early probably for less than you want or wait it out and see if there's any chance the pandemic  doesn't make next season as bad financially as  2020 .The  non tender deadline will be a major hint at what the off season holds in store.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 minutes ago, oneofthemikes said:

I think that Ricky's firing is a sign that the Sox are going to get really serious about winning it all and that the payroll will reflect that. My gut says that somewhere in the neighborhood of $140M is where we end up this season.

I just don't see that happening. I see the firing as a sign that says maybe a new manger/pitching coach with the young players getting hopefully better and more experienced will get better results with the same  payroll and what we spend will be commensurate with money departed through Free agency and those non tendered + arbitration raises.

[Flash]

13 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I just don't see that happening. I see the firing as a sign that says maybe a new manger/pitching coach with the young players getting hopefully better and more experienced will get better results with the same  payroll and what we spend will be commensurate with money departed through Free agency and those non tendered + arbitration raises.

I tend to agree unless they bring in TLR which would indicate to me they plan to go for it and possibly increase spending.

[he gone.]

Man, what a great game last night, and overall series. Ultimately what I'm scared of is the Sox becoming the Braves over the next two years. Like you look at that Braves team and you say, it's solid, if not a great team right? But really did they have a chance at winning the WS last year, or even this year? The offense is Top 3-5 in the league, there's no denying that. And they almost took out the Dodgers pitching with those bats, but ultimately 7 games in 7 days + then another 7 games against a team like the Rays? It would have been a huge upset for them to win. 

Now, I know that is going to be a controversial statement, because in the past people have not liked this stance ... I'll continue to have it. Pitching and pitching depth wins championships. What I am afraid of is becoming the Braves ... having a top 3-5 offense and squandering away 2 very, very prime seasons in a 4-7 year window. The Braves were a bit unfortunate with Hamels and Soroka and w those two healthy, one can make a very prudent argument of them actually being the better team v. the dodgers. However, without it, they were stuck with Fried & a very young Ian Anderson as their anchors & the rest being a hope in a prayer. Now a hope and a prayer can get your the ALCS/NLCS, but to knock a WS caliber team out in 7 games will be tough. 

RF is a hole, we know that. But you can fill a RF with a Puig, Engel, Mazara, Markakis, etc. etc. (i purposely picked replacement level players) and get away with it. What you can't get away with is having Dylan Cease (as he was this year ... prospects don't grow linearly and still has a chance to be a stud) or the likes starting a pivotal game 4 or 5/coming in a big situation over and over. Giolito is the man. Keuchel .... should have enough in him until he shows otherwise, and should still be able to be a #3 for the next few years. Kopech has the stuff to be our Ian Anderson for sure. Cease? I dont know. Dunning has some Buehrle/Keuchel lite in him & with this offense behind him? Should be a very, very serviceable 3-4 guy for a long time IMO. Crochet? Seems like flexor injuries appear, and then re-appear, feel like I can't count on him being healthy in the next 2 years (complete hunch). All this to say ... we NEED a top of the rotation guy this year more than anything. We need depth. We need to emulate the dodgers where you can trade a Maeda, lose a kershaw for a game and still have a may, gonsolin, urias ready to step up and pitch. That will be the key to our success. Our offense is there. We need that Bauer, Stroman, or acquisition arm. Otherwise I fear we will be the Braves in 2021 and 2022 ... losing close series, being oh so close, but not getting over that hump, which when you look back on it, are going to be prime years to miss opportunities on. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

So entering year 2 of the contention years, still in a pandemic and next year is CBA /possible strike how do you see the Sox payroll ? Do you think it ever gets up to $150M ? Is it higher lower or the same (Approx. $120) for next year ?

I thought $140M was a pretty reasonable target for 2021 with the potential for a little higher.  I still think that’s possible depending on their view on fan attendance next year.  The fact they are paying Ricky money not to manage the Sox next year has me optimistic.  I don’t think there’s any chance they reduce payroll though as we still make plenty on our TV deals and don’t have any financing or debt that will will impact our near term cash flow and put us in a dangerous spot without fan revenue.

[Flash]

Boy, I'd take Atlanta's pitching staff over ours or LA's for the foreseeable future. Anderson, Fried, Sorotka, Wright...throw in Toussaint, Wilson, Minter and they are stacked with young fireballers. Braves should be contenders for the foreseeable future if they stay healthy.

[bmags]

19 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

Man, what a great game last night, and overall series. Ultimately what I'm scared of is the Sox becoming the Braves over the next two years. Like you look at that Braves team and you say, it's solid, if not a great team right? But really did they have a chance at winning the WS last year, or even this year? The offense is Top 3-5 in the league, there's no denying that. And they almost took out the Dodgers pitching with those bats, but ultimately 7 games in 7 days + then another 7 games against a team like the Rays? It would have been a huge upset for them to win. 

Now, I know that is going to be a controversial statement, because in the past people have not liked this stance ... I'll continue to have it. Pitching and pitching depth wins championships. What I am afraid of is becoming the Braves ... having a top 3-5 offense and squandering away 2 very, very prime seasons in a 4-7 year window. The Braves were a bit unfortunate with Hamels and Soroka and w those two healthy, one can make a very prudent argument of them actually being the better team v. the dodgers. However, without it, they were stuck with Fried & a very young Ian Anderson as their anchors & the rest being a hope in a prayer. Now a hope and a prayer can get your the ALCS/NLCS, but to knock a WS caliber team out in 7 games will be tough. 

RF is a hole, we know that. But you can fill a RF with a Puig, Engel, Mazara, Markakis, etc. etc. (i purposely picked replacement level players) and get away with it. What you can't get away with is having Dylan Cease (as he was this year ... prospects don't grow linearly and still has a chance to be a stud) or the likes starting a pivotal game 4 or 5/coming in a big situation over and over. Giolito is the man. Keuchel .... should have enough in him until he shows otherwise, and should still be able to be a #3 for the next few years. Kopech has the stuff to be our Ian Anderson for sure. Cease? I dont know. Dunning has some Buehrle/Keuchel lite in him & with this offense behind him? Should be a very, very serviceable 3-4 guy for a long time IMO. Crochet? Seems like flexor injuries appear, and then re-appear, feel like I can't count on him being healthy in the next 2 years (complete hunch). All this to say ... we NEED a top of the rotation guy this year more than anything. We need depth. We need to emulate the dodgers where you can trade a Maeda, lose a kershaw for a game and still have a may, gonsolin, urias ready to step up and pitch. That will be the key to our success. Our offense is there. We need that Bauer, Stroman, or acquisition arm. Otherwise I fear we will be the Braves in 2021 and 2022 ... losing close series, being oh so close, but not getting over that hump, which when you look back on it, are going to be prime years to miss opportunities on. 

Had the Braves won last night I think they could beat Rays. I don't think there is much talent diff between them and Rays. Dodgers talent diff feels much higher but their rotation has not played up to potential in playoffs last decade.

Anderson and Fried were filthy and they are only gaining Soroka next year. That's a big 3 that rivals anyone. Wright got rocked in the CS but can definitely become a good-to-great piece.

If anything I think Braves should be happy. In early august it was looking like their wealth of pitching was falling apart. Between injuries and players like folty and touissant falling off of a cliff, along with FA signings like hamels not playing and soroka injured, it was rough. Then Anderson and Fried dominate and you remember that if players from a group of prospects become elite and not just good it does so much for a rebuild.

They have Pache arriving for good. Riley and Waters probably for good. Money that went to a sandoval or markakis and ozuna can be redistributed to plug up holes.

[bmags]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

I thought $140M was a pretty reasonable target for 2021 with the potential for a little higher.  I still think that’s possible depending on their view on fan attendance next year.  The fact they are paying Ricky money not to manage the Sox next year has me optimistic.  I don’t think there’s any chance they reduce payroll though as we still make plenty on our TV deals and don’t have any financing or debt that will will impact our near term cash flow and put us in a dangerous spot without fan revenue.

I think this is the long and short of it for what they have to play with. I wouldn't be surprised if new TV deal + shortened season meant sox plugged their losses in 2020. And that's a big reason why FA signings may delay. Teams may wait to see likelihood of starting 2021 with fans, maybe being more optimistic if the nov 2020 J&J vaccine drops.

[Flash]

Will take a ballsy move for a team to pursue big $$ free agents w/o visibility into 2021 revenue. I doubt the usual suspects like Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox step up. Mets might be interesting given new ownership and will likely be players for McCann but I can't imagine teams increasing payroll unless/until the revenue outlook turns positive. I think the Sox can sit back and select from the non-tendered at bargain prices while also exploring the trade market. I think they will lose McCann due to so many teams needing catching but, for me, the wild card is Colome. He will have suitors and we will likely need to exceed $10M/yr.  

[Dominikk85]

Is is not great but I could see the Sox going for Jake odorizzi. He was very bad but he is only 30 and was limited to 13 innings with some injuries this year (hit by a pitch, blisters) and the Sox could hope for a bounce back if he is cheap enough. 

 

Of course this Sox bounce back veteran signing didn't exactly work a lot in the past but he could bounce back to being a solid 4 starter with a high 3s, low 4 Era. 

 

Not a great solution, he could turn into EE/la Roche and get even worse instead o bouncing back and obviously Bauer would be a lot better but if the finances don't allow for it I could see oddorizzi being the guy that Hahn goes for 

[he gone.]

9 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Is is not great but I could see the Sox going for Jake odorizzi. He was very bad but he is only 30 and was limited to 13 innings with some injuries this year (hit by a pitch, blisters) and the Sox could hope for a bounce back if he is cheap enough. 

 

Of course this Sox bounce back veteran signing didn't exactly work a lot in the past but he could bounce back to being a solid 4 starter with a high 3s, low 4 Era. 

 

Not a great solution, he could turn into EE/la Roche and get even worse instead o bouncing back and obviously Bauer would be a lot better but if the finances don't allow for it I could see oddorizzi being the guy that Hahn goes for 

To me guys like Odorizzi (even outside of Statcast info) are just not worth it. If we do another 16 team playoffs I think the Sox are in again, almost no matter what. So if winning during the season isn't as important then giving start to guys like Gio Gonzalez or Odorizzi to me seems like a wasted opportunity to find out what you have in a lot of your younger arms. To me you have to make a deal that bring in a guy who you'd be CONFIDENT with on the mound in Game 6. To me the only real options who fill that are Bauer, Stroman and ... wait for it ... Rich Hill. Now Rich Hill may be 1,000 years old and only can pitch 43 innings a year, but there's no denying his talent when locked in. Plus he fits the Sox mentality for a short contract (1 year) and price (probably $2-5mm). Plus side, just have him on IL or pitching 1-2 innings as a "opener" for the whole season then come playoff time just ramp him up to 3-4 innings and hope for the best. 

[reiks12]

The Yankees are reportedly cutting payroll, this is going to be a brutal offseason for free agents.

[BigHurt3515]

13 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

The Yankees are reportedly cutting payroll, this is going to be a brutal offseason for free agents.

I could see a lot of 1 year deals with and option for a 2nd year.

[EloyJenkins]

12 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

The Yankees are reportedly cutting payroll, this is going to be a brutal offseason for free agents.

yep, Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs all need to get under luxury tax. and with the new CBA looming it is going to be intense. Players will come off as greedy if they hold out for more money and Owners will all be crying poor. Perfect time to steal some FAs!

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

20 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

The Yankees are reportedly cutting payroll, this is going to be a brutal offseason for free agents.

Stanton? No way he could cost much in a trade with his contract.. right?

Edited October 19, 2020 by Squirmin' for Yermin

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Stanton? No way he could cost much in a trade with his contract.. right?

Already have enough DHs's on this team. I'm not taking on that contract and playing him in the outfield on a consistent basis.

Edited October 19, 2020 by soxfan2014

[southsider2k5]

20 hours ago, YourWhatHurts said:

1) Do you have any idea how much better a healthy Chris Sale is than Keuchel?  A significant upgrade is in itself a purpose.

2) Adding more SP I already addressed.  By sending out Keuchel's salary we could theoretically also still add another SP this offseason.  IMO Bauer and Stroman both, and also maybe Gausman, are better than Keuchel.  Paxton and Tanaka if healthy are also better.  There are some real options to make 2 improvements over the guy that Keuchel will be in 2021 through 2023.

3) McCann is a FA.  We maybe can have him back if we want him but he's the biggest C target on the FA market IMO, because only Realmuto is better, but because Realmuto is actually great and will want lots of money and years, only a handful of teams will even bother to bid on him, leaving McCann as the best C target available most likely for most teams.  Even if we could sign him back, Vazquez is a most likely a better player on paper, and Vazquez is already on a much better (and cheaper) contract than McCann will get as a FA.

Seeing as Chris Sale is going to miss some portion of next season, I don't think you can assume that for 2021.  No doubt a HEALTHY Chris Sale is significantly better, but we can't make that assumption anymore, plus we KNOW he is going to miss some portion of the season due to TJS.