Offseason Targets

[SCCWS]

6 hours ago, hi8is said:

That said - It is not a stretch to say that Vaughn has the talent to become the best hitter on this team.
 

He is that talented.

Hopefully the organization can find him a position. RF may be a stretch so it could be IB by default. Not DH as some have said. 

[ChiSox59]

2 hours ago, SCCWS said:

Hopefully the organization can find him a position. RF may be a stretch so it could be IB by default. Not DH as some have said. 

I think it’ll be 60% Jose 1B and 40% Vaughn (once he arrives in late April). Other DHs. 

In 22, 70% Vaughn 1B and 30% Jose. 

Then its Vaughn’s position. By then, Eloy will be the DH. 

[southsider2k5]

47 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think it’ll be 60% Jose 1B and 40% Vaughn (once he arrives in late April). Other DHs. 

In 22, 70% Vaughn 1B and 30% Jose. 

Then its Vaughn’s position. By then, Eloy will be the DH. 

Those are pretty specific numbers for not having hired the guy who is going to fill out the line up cards yet.

[ChiSox59]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Those are pretty specific numbers for not having hired the guy who is going to fill out the line up cards yet.

They're just my estimates.  I didn't know we couldn't pontificate until a manager was hired.  Noted.  

[Eminor3rd]

15 hours ago, greg775 said:

The Kansas chancellor who is a doctor said that he thinks we won't be close to normal until this time in 2021. So that makes you wonder ... will ballclubs have reduced attendance or no attendance again next season? I guess the TV contracts still stuff dollars in the owners' pockets, but don't the lack of parking and ticket sales hurt teams at least a bit? Sounds like it could be another season of reduced profits. The doctor/chancellor also said he doesn't think we'll ever return to what we considered normal before. Doesn't this scare sports owners a bit? At least baseball is outdoors but I would think it insane for owners to give studs contracts of say 45 million over 3 years.

The lack of fans in attendance (which erases not only ticket and concession revenue, but the majority of merchandise revenue and nearly a majority of corporate revenue) absolutely brutalizes the bottom line, whether or not you include parking. 

Every team is hurting badly, every team is afraid of not being at full strength next year, nearly every team is afraid that "normal" will never again be realized (potential for a very different and permanent set of policies on entry procedures and capacity limits for public events) and I believe that will lead to a very risk-averse offseason in terms of spending.

[YourWhatHurts]

3 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think it’ll be 60% Jose 1B and 40% Vaughn (once he arrives in late April). Other DHs. 

In 22, 70% Vaughn 1B and 30% Jose. 

Then its Vaughn’s position. By then, Eloy will be the DH. 

 

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Those are pretty specific numbers for not having hired the guy who is going to fill out the line up cards yet.

Those numbers would assume the new hire is at least fairly competent, reasonable, and legitimately interested in the development of our young players.

We shouldn't hire anyone who would want to put Vaughn in at a lesser clip than that.

[YourWhatHurts]

On 10/19/2020 at 11:49 AM, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Stanton? No way he could cost much in a trade with his contract.. right?

lol what a completely idiotic idea

[greg775]

3 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think it’ll be 60% Jose 1B and 40% Vaughn (once he arrives in late April). Other DHs. 

In 22, 70% Vaughn 1B and 30% Jose. 

Then its Vaughn’s position. By then, Eloy will be the DH. 

Jose's gotten to where he is defense is average now. He's not a liability at first. I even think it's above average but I won't argue. With the way Jose likes to play every day, there's no way Vaughn plays first 40 percent of the time. Jose will play it 85 percent IMO. Almost every day with Vaughn the Sunday lineup guy at 1B. Now DH? Vaughn,

Edited October 21, 2020 by greg775

[greg775]

2 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

The lack of fans in attendance (which erases not only ticket and concession revenue, but the majority of merchandise revenue and nearly a majority of corporate revenue) absolutely brutalizes the bottom line, whether or not you include parking. 

Every team is hurting badly, every team is afraid of not being at full strength next year, nearly every team is afraid that "normal" will never again be realized (potential for a very different and permanent set of policies on entry procedures and capacity limits for public events) and I believe that will lead to a very risk-averse offseason in terms of spending.

Nice post. I'm reading the wrong stuff probably but this is the first I've read anywhere that team owners are at all concerned about anything involving the ownership of their team in the future. Drives me crazy. I just assumed it's all about TV contracts and attendance/parking didn't matter.

[fathom]

Some of the expected deals I’ve seen for Joc blow my mind. I know I wouldn’t want the Sox going into ten million plus for him

[Chisoxfn]

3 minutes ago, fathom said:

Some of the expected deals I’ve seen for Joc blow my mind. I know I wouldn’t want the Sox going into ten million plus for him

Does everyone who suggests Joc would have been better than Mazara realize how bad Joc was in 2020? Dude hit under .200.  Both of them stunk in 2020 and we would have complained with either of them in the lineup.  But yeah - paying $10M+ for a guy coming off a season where he hit <.200, no thank you (although i do assume he'll bounce back).  Bright side is - Joc can play defense.  

[bmags]

15 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Does everyone who suggests Joc would have been better than Mazara realize how bad Joc was in 2020? Dude hit under .200.  Both of them stunk in 2020 and we would have complained with either of them in the lineup.  But yeah - paying $10M+ for a guy coming off a season where he hit <.200, no thank you (although i do assume he'll bounce back).  Bright side is - Joc can play defense.  

He's riskier than he was but there is a big difference here in that Joc Pederson's wRC+ in his career (fuller seasons) have been 116, 128, 100, 126 and 127 until this years 88.

That 88 was 20% better than Mazara's 68.

Mazara's wRC+'s have been 91, 87, 95, 94 and then 68. So he was never as bad as he was this year but he was never a plus offensive player. Pederson was typically 20% better than average offensively.

He is riskier, but I'd certainly put 10 mill down on that while going after Springer and Ozuna. But my priority stays on pitching, i'd put reddick in OF if it meant I could get Bauer + Odorizzi.

[ChiSox59]

Joc is a fine 1 year stop gap if we get into like Feb and couldn’t do better. 
 

Joc being anything more than a fallback option would be very disappointing. We have one major hole in the future lineup and no one knocking at the door to take it anytime soon. Make a deal for a real RF. 

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Joc is a fine 1 year stop gap if we get into like Feb and couldn’t do better. 
 

Joc being anything more than a fallback option would be very disappointing. We have one major hole in the future lineup and no one knocking at the door to take it anytime soon. Make a deal for a real RF. 

This is the way we always talk in october, then the chips start to fall and you realize we won't get all of our A options and we get desperate for someone like Joc.

Last october if someone had a dream offseason of grandal + keuchel + mazara + gio gonzalez they would have been crushed as overly pessimistic. 

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

This is the way we always talk in october, then the chips start to fall and you realize we won't get all of our A options and we get desperate for someone like Joc.

Last october if someone had a dream offseason of grandal + keuchel + mazara + gio gonzalez they would have been crushed as overly pessimistic. 

To further I really think the expectation that we will be spending big this winter might be optimistic.  I know we have a lot coming off of the payroll, but we also have around $20 million in raises to give and a guy like Giolito going to arb for the first time.

[The Hawk]

14 hours ago, hi8is said:

That said - It is not a stretch to say that Vaughn has the talent to become the best hitter on this team.
 

He is that talented.

I'm curious. What do you base that on? I heard the same kind of thing about Robert being the best prospect since Mike Trout from the mouths of many Sox fans also. And at the end of the year, he looked totally lost at the plate. Also, right now, I'd consider Jose as the best hitter in all of baseball and I doubt that many across baseball would share that opinion with me. Perhaps there needs to be a discussion of what determines who the best "hitter" in baseball is?

[hi8is]

14 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

I'm curious. What do you base that on? I heard the same kind of thing about Robert being the best prospect since Mike Trout from the mouths of many Sox fans also. And at the end of the year, he looked totally lost at the plate. Also, right now, I'd consider Jose as the best hitter in all of baseball and I doubt that many across baseball would share that opinion with me. Perhaps there needs to be a discussion of what determines who the best "hitter" in baseball is?

Welcome to Soxtalk!

[hi8is]

14 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

I'm curious. What do you base that on? I heard the same kind of thing about Robert being the best prospect since Mike Trout from the mouths of many Sox fans also. And at the end of the year, he looked totally lost at the plate. Also, right now, I'd consider Jose as the best hitter in all of baseball and I doubt that many across baseball would share that opinion with me. Perhaps there needs to be a discussion of what determines who the best "hitter" in baseball is?

I think Vaughn can develop into the best hitter on our team. Base that on what he looks like as a prospect from games I’ve watched at the college level and games I’ve watched during his limited professional appearances.

Not only does his physical strength bode well for him but even more so do his mechanics and approach.

He has a massive hit tool and huge power upside. The guy is going to be special.

Robert showed why he was given the praise he received and his need to make adjustments isn’t surprising.

 

[The Hawk]

8 minutes ago, hi8is said:

I think Vaughn can develop into the best hitter on our team. Base that on what he looks like as a prospect from games I’ve watched at the college level and games I’ve watched during his limited professional appearances.

Not only does his physical strength bode well for him but even more so do his mechanics and approach.

He has a massive hit tool and huge power upside. The guy is going to be special.

Robert showed why he was given the praise he received and his need to make adjustments isn’t surprising.

We will see for sure. Its all speculative how a hitter will pan out. Me, I think that Jimenez will possibly win a Triple Crown some day. I've never seen a guy his age with the easy power and ability to spoil terrific pitches. You can really tell how much he absorbs hitting wise from Abreu and also from EE. Whatever Vaughn does, he is at least going to be a good major league middle of the order hitter someday. Robert is another story. He's going to have to be given time to learn how to recognize pitches and make adaptions to his swing to adjust to the stuff they are going to continue to throw him. Right now, he is easy to pitch to, kind of like Anderson was for awhile.

 

[The Hawk]

25 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Welcome to Soxtalk!

Thank you:)

[Eminor3rd]

4 hours ago, greg775 said:

Nice post. I'm reading the wrong stuff probably but this is the first I've read anywhere that team owners are at all concerned about anything involving the ownership of their team in the future. Drives me crazy. I just assumed it's all about TV contracts and attendance/parking didn't matter.

Yeah that's a narrative that is popular, but I'm not sure where it came from. Maybe it used to be that way decades ago before the media explosion in the 90's, not sure.

First of all, tickets themselves are a MASSIVE revenue stream, despite what a lot of people think. For many teams it's actually still the largest single stream. It isn't just people like us on the board buying individual game or season tickets -- the group sales department is a substantial portion of the ticket revenue, as are the premium sales. Just think about how many luxury suites are in the stadium. Companies pay mid six figures to lease them for the season. and the sales department fills the rest of the inventory with group sales. When no one is allowed in the stadium, pick a number between $300 - 800k for each suite and multiply it by however many suites are there, and that's a ballpark of how much revenue is completely gone JUST from that source. And even if you think that there will be fans in the park in some number next year, smart money is the fact that enclosed spaces are going to be accessible LAST, so that money may not be back in 2021 at all.

The other thing people don't understand is how much of the value of corporate sponsorship is tied to fans being in the park. Essentially every team has had to renegotiate EVERY corporate sponsorship contract based on how much value can be actually delivered. All of the value that is tied to tickets, in-park experiences (think batting practice viewing, dinners at bars/restaurants, which are commonly sweepstakes prizes passed along to consumer brands), all kiosks and concourse facing signage, retail co-branding, etc. is impossible to collect on. This year, the ONLY signage worth anything is TV visible signage, and even that is inarguably LESS valuable because it loses all of its impressions from in-park attendance.

Also, you can't forget about concessions/merchandise. People forget about it because that stuff is typically low margin in most industries -- but remember how much a beer costs at a stadium. The margins are NOT small in event settings.

When Ricketts was railed for publicly estimating their losses and everyone thought he was exaggerating -- I can tell you that the numbers he was throwing out passed the smell test.

Basically, the extent to which these revenue streams return in 2021 is going to depend on what happens politically with regards to the virus over the next six months. And without that knowledge, it's a fool's errand to create a meaningful expense budget. Say what you want about the share of the revenue that you think players should get, but it's as high as it is nominally BECAUSE teams have expected to rely on these revenue streams for a long time. No one is going to know how much money they can actually expect to collect until the offseason is over, so I think it's going to be a lean one for free agency.

Edited October 21, 2020 by Eminor3rd

[The Hawk]

15 hours ago, poppysox said:

My hope is the new pitching coach gets Lopez to work faster.  I hate his slow pace.  

I'd say that he needs to develop a repeatable motion as a first priority.Neither he nor Cease have one of those things.

[SCCWS]

12 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think it’ll be 60% Jose 1B and 40% Vaughn (once he arrives in late April). Other DHs. 

In 22, 70% Vaughn 1B and 30% Jose. 

Then its Vaughn’s position. By then, Eloy will be the DH. 

That seems like a solid approach. 

[greg775]

19 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

Yeah that's a narrative that is popular, but I'm not sure where it came from. Maybe it used to be that way decades ago before the media explosion in the 90's, not sure.

First of all, tickets themselves are a MASSIVE revenue stream, despite what a lot of people think. For many teams it's actually still the largest single stream. It isn't just people like us on the board buying individual game or season tickets -- the group sales department is a substantial portion of the ticket revenue, as are the premium sales. Just think about how many luxury suites are in the stadium. Companies pay mid six figures to lease them for the season. and the sales department fills the rest of the inventory with group sales. When no one is allowed in the stadium, pick a number between $300 - 800k for each suite and multiply it by however many suites are there, and that's a ballpark of how much revenue is completely gone JUST from that source. And even if you think that there will be fans in the park in some number next year, smart money is the fact that enclosed spaces are going to be accessible LAST, so that money may not be back in 2021 at all.

The other thing people don't understand is how much of the value of corporate sponsorship is tied to fans being in the park. Essentially every team has had to renegotiate EVERY corporate sponsorship contract based on how much value can be actually delivered. All of the value that is tied to tickets, in-park experiences (think batting practice viewing, dinners at bars/restaurants, which are commonly sweepstakes prizes passed along to consumer brands), all kiosks and concourse facing signage, retail co-branding, etc. is impossible to collect on. This year, the ONLY signage worth anything is TV visible signage, and even that is inarguably LESS valuable because it loses all of its impressions from in-park attendance.

Also, you can't forget about concessions/merchandise. People forget about it because that stuff is typically low margin in most industries -- but remember how much a beer costs at a stadium. The margins are NOT small in event settings.

When Ricketts was railed for publicly estimating their losses and everyone thought he was exaggerating -- I can tell you that the numbers he was throwing out passed the smell test.

Basically, the extent to which these revenue streams return in 2021 is going to depend on what happens politically with regards to the virus over the next six months. And without that knowledge, it's a fool's errand to create a meaningful expense budget. Say what you want about the share of the revenue that you think players should get, but it's as high as it is nominally BECAUSE teams have expected to rely on these revenue streams for a long time. No one is going to know how much money they can actually expect to collect until the offseason is over, so I think it's going to be a lean one for free agency.

Great post. Like I said, I haven't seen this type of info anywhere, just snide remarks about TV contracts taking care of the owners. I know most people hate Trump but I though it was funny about a line he said yesterday at a rally when I read your line about what will happen "politically" with regards to the virus over the next six months. Trump was telling a North Carolina crowd that NC must be "reopened." He said, "you wait, on Nov. 4, they'll say, 'Everything's open now (after Harris/Biden win). It's all open." It was funny.

But I wish media would write something like you just wrote here. It makes sense that owners are losing top dollar because of the absence of fans.

[oldsox]

On 10/21/2020 at 7:17 AM, poppysox said:

My hope is the new pitching coach gets Lopez to work faster.  I hate his slow pace.  

A long time ago I heard Joe Garagiola say that "If I don't pitch it, you can't hit it."  That might apply here.

Edited October 22, 2020 by oldsox