Offseason Targets

[iWiN4PreP]

2 minutes ago, tray said:

I liked Jarred Kelenic as LH outfield prospect in the the Draft.   He is a LH bat that can play Center or RF. I would trade Vaughn plus Kopech (or Vaughn plus Cease and Collins) for him. 

I also still like Benintendi, even though his value has diminished some.  Either one could thrive in the White Sox line-up.

Kelenic is too good now... would need to trade way too much to acquire him and even then ... he may just be untouchable 

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m not sure how you’re getting -3.0 fWAR out of Cease or López as we’d hopefully only need one of them to start next year and that’s if we only add one starter.  Bauer, Gioltio, Keuchel, & Dunning would be your 1-4 to open the season. Kopech should be ready at some point for that #5 spot.  We basically would need Cease or López for a couple months (baring injury) and even then we have like seven off-days in April & May which reduces the need for a #5 starter.  I would still add a depth piece, but you could probably survive with a cheaper swing-man if you add the certainty of high end performance that Bauer brings to the table.

I think that if they blow their wad on Bauer, they will have to have either of Lopez or Cease to start the year.

However, since they both have strike-throwing allergies, I'm anticipating that Lopez will start the year in the rotation, and go for -1.5 fWAR, then be DFA'ed. Then, Cease would be called up, and likewise walk the yard every 5th day, and go for another -1.5 fWAR. That's how they'd get to a combined -3.0 fWAR over a 162 game season.

 

The net outcome would be a total of 2.0 fWAR for ~$25MM+/year, assuming Bauer would provide +5.0 fWAR. 

Edited November 1, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[ChiSox59]

9 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I think that if they blow their wad on Bauer, they will have to have either of Lopez or Cease to start the year.

However, since they both have strike-throwing allergies, I'm anticipating that Lopez will start the year in the rotation, and go for -1.5 fWAR, then be DFA'ed. Then, Cease would be called up, and likewise walk the yard every 5th day, and go for another -1.5 fWAR. That's how they'd get to a combined -3.0 fWAR over a 162 game season.

 

The net outcome would be a total of 2.0 fWAR for ~$25MM+/year, assuming Bauer would provide +5.0 fWAR. 

I think the chances that Cease is NOT making starts for the Sox next April is 0% barring trade or injury. 

I hated the idea of trading Cease at the deadline this year. But I would definitely move him for a good fitting RF if JR would do Bauer/Stroman and Quintana (or similar). I don’t see Bauer as only likely though. 

Point is, Sox aren’t giving up on Cease yet. Just like they didn’t give up on Giolito. 

Edited November 1, 2020 by ChiSox59

[poppysox]

5 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

It’s amazing how differently James McCann is valued by his diehard fans on this site vs. other baseball analysts.  Keith Law doesn’t even have him ranked amongst the top 40 free agents.  Fangraphs has him ranked 33rd overall, but only projects him to get a deal around 2/$14M.  I personally think he’s being undervalued, but it does go to show how ridiculous the idea is that’s he suddenly the better catcher than Grandal.  

They obviously don't watch him every day and every play like we do.  Maybe we can keep him at a lower price than some of us think.  Hope so!

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think the chances that Cease is NOT making starts for the Sox next April is 0% barring trade or injury. 

 I hated the idea of trading Cease at the deadline this year. But I would definitely move him if JR would do Bauer/Stroman and Quintana (or similar). I don’t see Bauer as only likely though. 

 Point is, Sox aren’t giving up on Cease yet. Just like they didn’t give up on Giolito. 

I think Cease might start in Charlotte/Schaumburg, because he still has an option. [Or is it 2 options?]

Lopez does not have any options remaining, so if he stays with the SOX, it will have to be in Chicago.

 

That aside, both have sucked, and both have gotten worse over the past few seasons. By sending Cease to MiLB to fvkcing find the fvkcing strike zone, maybe he can yet become a provider of IP, and of positive WAR.  

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I think Cease might start in Charlotte/Schaumburg, because he still has an option. [Or is it 2 options?]

Lopez does not have any options remaining, so if he stays with the SOX, it will have to be in Chicago.

 

That aside, both have sucked, and both have gotten worse over the past few seasons. By sending Cease to MiLB to fvkcing find the fvkcing strike zone, maybe he can yet become a provider of IP, and of positive WAR.  

Yeah, Reylo has had his chances. He’s not starting over Cease. My guess is Reylo is the long man to start the year and could make some spot starts, but not over Cease.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Yeah, Reylo has had his chances. He’s not starting over Cease. My guess is Reylo is the long man to start the year and could make some spot starts, but not over Cease.

Why?

Why would Cease get a chance over Reylo? They both have had BB/9IP > 5. They both have had HR/9IP > 1.5; I think both were among the 10 worst at those tragic numbers last season, and both have gotten worse, compared to 2019.

And exactly what, apart from his "prospect status" has earned Cease another bite of the apple, exactly? He's sucked out loud at baseball, but at least Cease has an option to go get his shit sorted.

[Chicago White Sox]

28 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I think that if they blow their wad on Bauer, they will have to have either of Lopez or Cease to start the year.

However, since they both have strike-throwing allergies, I'm anticipating that Lopez will start the year in the rotation, and go for -1.5 fWAR, then be DFA'ed. Then, Cease would be called up, and likewise walk the yard every 5th day, and go for another -1.5 fWAR. That's how they'd get to a combined -3.0 fWAR over a 162 game season.

 

The net outcome would be a total of 2.0 fWAR for ~$25MM+/year, assuming Bauer would provide +5.0 fWAR. 

So you don’t think Kopech ever factors into the mix?

[tray]

The Sox could have selected  Kelenic instead of Madrigal in the Draft , Now you can't get Kelenic unless you give up a boat load of talent.

The Sox should have released EE mid season and let Vaughn at least DH. If Vaughn raked...even for 20 or 30 games, he would at least have maximized his trade value.

 

[Two-Gun Pete]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So you don’t think Kopech ever factors into the mix?

I think we've learned from TB and especially, from LAD that having a metric fvkc-ton of SP depth is crucial. LAD have lost Greinke, Ryu, and others from their SP depth chart in recent years, and they've kept on trucking. If the SOX had lost either of a Greinke or Ryu-type in the middle of a competitive window, it would likely touch off a rebuild, not another "ho-hum, we're in the LCS again," as it has been for LAD.

 

I think that for roster spots to start the season, its Lopez vs. Rodon, vs. Cease. Rodon's body is made out of glass, and he can't find the strike zone with his FB. At least Lopez has been upright long enough for us to see that he probably sucks. Neither Rodon, nor Lopez have options, so I believe its one or the other. IMO, it should be Lopez, because he's been available.

Cease has sucked a horse's ass, and I don't know why some fall all over themselves to give him a pass. BUT, he still has an option, and maybe more competent coaching can help him find the strike zone with a road map. If the SOX can add to SPs through FA, I would ship Cease and his shitload of walks to Charlotte.

 

Kopech is behind Lopez, Cease, AND Dunning in the depth chart at this point. He's your injury replacement call-up option for this season. In 2022 and beyond, if he can stay healthy and throw strikes, then this org can count on him. Until then, he can join Cease in Charlotte. 

Edited November 1, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I think we've learned from TB and especially, from LAD that having a metric fvkc-ton of SP depth is crucial.

I think that for roster spots to start the season, its Lopez vs. Rodon, vs. Cease. Rodon's body is made out of glass, and he can't find the strike zone with his FB. At least Lopez has been upright long enough for us to see that he probably sucks. Neither Rodon, nor Lopez have options, so I believe its one or the other. IMO, it should be Lopez.

Cease has sucked a horse's ass, and I don't know why some fall all over themselves to give him a pass. BUT, he still has an option, and maybe more competent coaching can help him find the strike zone with a road map.

 

Kopech is behind Lopez, Cease, AND Dunning in the depth chart at this point. He's your injury replacement call-up option at this point.

From my perspective, I’m 100% ok with this being our depth chart:

1. Bauer
2. Giolito
3. Keuchel
4. Dunning
5. Cheap FA Swingman
6. Kopech
7. Cease
8. Lopez
9. Lambert
10. Stiever

[Two-Gun Pete]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

From my perspective, I’m 100% ok with this being our depth chart:

1.  Bauer
2. Giolito
3. Keuchel
4. Dunning
5. Cheap FA Swingman
6. Kopech
7. Cease
8. Lopez
9. Lambert
10. Stiever

The guys in bold have options, whereas Lopez does not. I think Lopez is either your cheap swingman, or 5th starter, or he's off the team.

I don't think that Bauer will end up here, because he will be setting the FA market this offseason to the tune of 9 figures, and 5+ years.  I'd be good with Stroman after Keuchel, and another vet ahead of Dunning to start the season.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

The guys in bold have options, whereas Lopez does not. I think Lopez is either your cheap swingman, or 5th starter, or he's off the team.

I don't think that Bauer will end up here, because he will be setting the FA market this offseason to the tune of 9 figures, and 5+ years.  I'd be good with Stroman after Keuchel, and another vet ahead of Dunning to start the season.

My offseason plan is to add the best possible starter and then a cheap swingman who can open the season as our #5.  Given the amount of off-days we have in April & May and possible rainouts, that 5th starter would only be needed for five starts most likely.  I’m not sure we need to spend big on a second starter if we’re getting  enough production out of the top end guy.

That means López starts the season as our long reliever and that Kopech & Cease open up the year in AAA.  I want Kopech slowly building up innings in Charlotte so that we can save him for the stretch run and get an extra year of control.  That means he comes up and takes the #5 spot in June if all is going well.  Cease fills in as needed if there an injury arises or unsurps someone as performance dictates.  The veteran swingman ultimately moves to the pen and López is either moved to shorter stints or is DFAed depending on how he looks.

The Sox aren’t going to give up on Cease this early into his career and they will want to create a path for Kopech to join the rotation at some point.  We need to add depth, but I think they’ll be able to get a decent arm on the cheap who can temporarily hold that #5 spot until one of Kopech or Cease is ready and then move to the bullpen.  Again, I’d rather put resources towards the best possible starter and add cheaper depth then add two mid level starters because I still believe Kopech & Cease will be a big part of the rotation mix at some point in 2021.

[maloney.adam]

Free agency is officially open.

[Chicago White Sox]

Gausman is getting a qualified offer from the Giants.  That means two of the top five starters will require the loss of a draft and Bauer will almost certainly receive a QO as well.  My guess is Tanaka will also get one from the Yankees, although I’d wager Paxton will not.

The real question is do any of these players accept a QO?  Bauer obviously won’t, but no idea about the other guys.  It’s a little scary that the top end of the pitching market could quickly dry up.

[Chicago White Sox]

So it’s offfical, six players receive QOs:

• SP - Trevor Bauer
• SP - Marcus Stroman
• SP - Kevin Gausman
• CA - J.T. Realmuto
• OF - George Springer
• 2B - DJ LeMahieu

[Chicago White Sox]

The Yankees not offering Tanaka a QO is pretty indicative of their financial situation and good news for the mid tier teams looking to spend this offseason.

[poppysox]

2 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

The guys in bold have options, whereas Lopez does not. I think Lopez is either your cheap swingman, or 5th starter, or he's off the team.

I don't think that Bauer will end up here, because he will be setting the FA market this offseason to the tune of 9 figures, and 5+ years.  I'd be good with Stroman after Keuchel, and another vet ahead of Dunning to start the season.

Of course, Bauer is tantalizing but two #3 types + a #5 for depth would work for me.

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Of course, Bauer is tantalizing but two #3 types + a #5 for depth would work for me.

You want to add three starters?

[chw42]

15 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Gausman is getting a qualified offer from the Giants.  That means two of the top five starters will require the loss of a draft and Bauer will almost certainly receive a QO as well.  My guess is Tanaka will also get one from the Yankees, although I’d wager Paxton will not.

The real question is do any of these players accept a QO?  Bauer obviously won’t, but no idea about the other guys.  It’s a little scary that the top end of the pitching market could quickly dry up.

Gausman probably takes that $19 million and runs with it. I'm not sure he'll get more than 30-40 million in a 3 year deal.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Gausman probably takes that $19 million and runs with it. I'm not sure he'll get more than 30-40 million in a 3 year deal.

Fully agree.  Too much downside for him in passing it up.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, maloney.adam said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if all them accept their QO’s. It’s a tough market and they are guaranteed $18.9 for one year.

Only Gausman will IMO.  Something to keep an eye on is that it’s likely none of the big guys decide anything for a while, as Cohen isn’t even in charge of the Mets for a few more weeks.

[maloney.adam]

27 minutes ago, fathom said:

Only Gausman will IMO.  Something to keep an eye on is that it’s likely none of the big guys decide anything for a while, as Cohen isn’t even in charge of the Mets for a few more weeks.

I had deleted the post but I will respond anyways. All of them have until November 11th to accept or not which is next Wednesday so it doesn’t really matter that Cohen isn’t in charge for a few more weeks. There is a deadline on when they need to accept or reject. 

Edited November 1, 2020 by maloney.adam

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, fathom said:

Only Gausman will IMO.  Something to keep an eye on is that it’s likely none of the big guys decide anything for a while, as Cohen isn’t even in charge of the Mets for a few more weeks.

Stroman is the only other who might consider it, but I think he rejects it.

[ScootsMcGoots]

On 10/1/2020 at 7:42 PM, HahnsKiddieTable said:

Trevor Bauer and Castellanos or Ozuna for RF 

 

On 10/1/2020 at 8:16 PM, fathom said:

No to Castellanos. We need guys that can hit tough righties 

Castellanos exercised his option to stay with Cincinatti. So unless you're trading...he's not going anywhere.