Mazara and Right Field Thread

[michelangelosmonkey]

4 hours ago, tray said:

There were a lot of people who squealed when some us us suggested moving Moncada to third base in order to free up second for the eventual arrival of Madrigal.

They argued that second base was Moncada's "natural" position. Others suggested moving TA to CF.   None of those suggestions were crazy when they were made. Sometimes you just have to see how a player adjusts to a position and make a talent  evaluation from  there. .

Fast forward to Spring Training 2021.  I would like to see Engel start in CF and Robert in RF for a few games ....just to see how that works out.  Just try it.

 Long term, I look at Luis Robert as a prototypical  RFer.  He is a big man who might put more weight/muscle mass on in coming years.

Practically, I  do not want to see Robert  diving for balls in both gaps at high speed.   I want to minimize his risk for injury by playing him in RF and that is where his plus arm would be more valuable.

Engel  has developed into a full time major league player...as a center fielder.

Just my two cents.

More cents:  EE and Mazara are toast.  Bring Leury back , try to sign McCann, and try to sign Cespedes.

 

The problem with this argument is...Robert as a rookie was one of the best defensive CF's in baseball.  His RZR (Revised zone rating) was the highest of any CF...meaning he gets to everything.  The only real liability that he had was catching balls over the wall...but given his athleticism I feel like he will figure that out too.  I like Engel but I like even more the idea of Ken Griffey, JR 2.0 gobbling every fly ball into CF for the next decade.  

[The Hawk]

3 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

The problem with this argument is...Robert as a rookie was one of the best defensive CF's in baseball.  His RZR (Revised zone rating) was the highest of any CF...meaning he gets to everything.  The only real liability that he had was catching balls over the wall...but given his athleticism I feel like he will figure that out too.  I like Engel but I like even more the idea of Ken Griffey, JR 2.0 gobbling every fly ball into CF for the next decade.  

I never thought of Robert going over to right field. That's an interesting idea. I do like left handed throwing right fielders though because of the ball hit down the line and the subsequent play to 2nd base being easier to execute.

[RagahRagah]

4 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Wait...so if I "implore you" you will teach me?   Let me get my chair.   To summarize so you know where to start teaching me...to this point you have taught me: That Poker is a higher intellectual pursuit and not random outcomes determined by the flip of a card because, shut up.  That the process of winning at poker is a dispassionate calculation of the odds and then wagering based on those odds (you didn't actually say that but I'm trying to help you).  That even if you lose in the short term at poker while following an intellectual process, since most of the people you are playing against are dumbasses, in the long term you will win.  That poker = baseball free agency (I have to use a bit of magic to make that leap but I've already forgone logic on the non-randomness of a card game so what do I have to lose at this point?).  That Hahn was not following a process in free agency but was in fact...what...randomly signing people...alphabetically signing people?  That the outcome of Hahn's free agency tenure of signing Abreu, Robert, McCann, Grandal and Keuchel was the result of luck...like drawing to an inside straight and having it come up five times...making those successes actual failures because his process was bad.  That we need to ignore where the White Sox team is right now, talent wise,  because any positive results are an illusion because...math.  That I don't play poker professionally, in fact I'm probably dumb and don't win at neighborhood poker.  That disagreeing with you makes me a fluff ranter.   I think that's about it...so...take it away Professor.  

Yes. What you just said about poker is mostly true. Coin flips are definitely involved but they do not dictate every play. Making bad decisions will generally result in you not having good results. Without adhering to this logic, there's no way to even explain how pros make consistent money.

The relation to baseball is by saying is that if you make decisions where the odds are in your favor than vice-versa, the overall outcomes will be better. Just like in poker. Just like in life in general.

It's extremely simple. And no, a decision is not a good decision simply because the result is bad. Consistently bad decisions lead to consistently bad results. Again, you don't commend a broken clock for being right twice a day; you fix the damn clock.

As far as what you said about the Sox... no. That was a total utter strawman. The relation is to the manager actually using data and metrics to make the best probable decisions. The analogy is parallel. 

Edited October 28, 2020 by RagahRagah

[michelangelosmonkey]

19 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

Yes. What you just said about poker is mostly true. Coin flips are definitely involved but they do not dictate every play. Making bad decisions will generally result in you not having good results. Without adhering to this logic, there's no way to even explain how pros make consistent money.

The relation to baseball is by saying is that if you make decisions where the odds are in your favor than vice-versa, the overall outcomes will be better. Just like in poker. Just like in life in general.

It's extremely simple. And no, a decision is not a good decision simply because the result is bad. Consistently bad decisions lead to consistently bad results. Again, you don't commend a broken clock for being right twice a day; you fix the damn clock.

As far as what you said about the Sox... no. That was a total utter strawman. The relation is to the manager actually using data and metrics to make the best probable decisions. The analogy is parallel. 

So your argument is...Hahn should make good decisions not bad decisions and if he does this consistently over time the team will be good?  And I had to wade through your insults for that?   It sure seems to me that Hahn has a process, he's following the process and the White Sox now have more talent than I can ever remember them having.    

[The Hawk]

15 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

Yes. What you just said about poker is mostly true. Coin flips are definitely involved but they do not dictate every play. Making bad decisions will generally result in you not having good results. Without adhering to this logic, there's no way to even explain how pros make consistent money.

The relation to baseball is by saying is that if you make decisions where the odds are in your favor than vice-versa, the overall outcomes will be better. Just like in poker. Just like in life in general.

It's extremely simple. And no, a decision is not a good decision simply because the result is bad. Consistently bad decisions lead to consistently bad results. Again, you don't commend a broken clock for being right twice a day; you fix the damn clock.

As far as what you said about the Sox... no. That was a total utter strawman. The relation is to the manager actually using data and metrics to make the best probable decisions. The analogy is parallel. 

Baseball is all about the law of averages when you think about it. The way defenses set up is and has always been about the law of averages and the offenses try and defeat their placement. Pitchers know what pitches can usually get a given hitter out and try and put them in a certain location. They also know which pitches a hitter can handle well and avoid throwing them there. Its all a game within a game. The notion, however, that managers and coaches in the past and some in the present did not take hitter tendencies and abilities in consideration when planning on how to get them out is way over-blown as far as I am concerned. All that has happened is that more information is now available to the managers and coaches in an easier to read format and more timely. 

[The Hawk]

5 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

So your argument is...Hahn should make good decisions not bad decisions and if he does this consistently over time the team will be good?  And I had to wade through your insults for that?   It sure seems to me that Hahn has a process, he's following the process and the White Sox now have more talent than I can ever remember them having.    

Absolutely true. Any GM has to operate within the financial parameters set by the chief executive. My guess is that Hahn convinced Reinny that to win within Reinny's financial parameters, he had to tear the White Sox to the bone and rely on finding young talent from around different sources of baseball. To do that he took basically every good player that the White Sox had at the time with the exception of Abreu and traded them for the prize young players of some contending organization. And he added to these mostly Latin players with high draft picks from the Major league player drafts. All of these moves resulted in what in 2020 is a very talent laden team with more on the way. All within the old skinflints financial parameters. It was a MASTERFUL JOB by Hahn.

[RagahRagah]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

So your argument is...Hahn should make good decisions not bad decisions and if he does this consistently over time the team will be good?  And I had to wade through your insults for that?   It sure seems to me that Hahn has a process, he's following the process and the White Sox now have more talent than I can ever remember them having.    

My thoughts are more directed to whoever is managing. As far as Hahn goes, we needed starting pitching desperately and there were a lot of good arms available that we either didn't get or try to get, and most of his FA signings have been terrible. 

Simply saying we have a lot of talent doesn't make up for bad mistakes. I'd rather be more like the Yankees than the Twins, if you understand what I mean. 

I called you dense at one point, because you were. Other than that I don't believe I insulted you. If you perceive explanation of things as condescension that is your issue. 

Edited October 28, 2020 by RagahRagah

[southsider2k5]

 

[Vulture]

Re-sign McCann, trade Grandal to the catching deprived Mets for Nimmo, and put the money into the pitching staff, is what I would do.

[Sleepy Harold]

4 minutes ago, Vulture said:

Re-sign McCann, trade Grandal to the catching deprived Mets for Nimmo, and put the money into the pitching staff, is what I would do.

Nothing would make big free agents want to come here less than trading Grandal a year into his deal.  

[hi8is]

11 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

So your argument is...Hahn should make good decisions not bad decisions and if he does this consistently over time the team will be good?  And I had to wade through your insults for that?   It sure seems to me that Hahn has a process, he's following the process and the White Sox now have more talent than I can ever remember them having.    

Can we all leave it and avoid more poker references? Please?

@RagahRagah and @michelangelosmonkey... deal?

[Vulture]

1 hour ago, Sleepy Harold said:

Nothing would make big free agents want to come here less than trading Grandal a year into his deal.  

I don't buy that. Players are traded all the time.

[tray]

19 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

The problem with this argument is...Robert as a rookie was one of the best defensive CF's in baseball.  His RZR (Revised zone rating) was the highest of any CF...meaning he gets to everything.  The only real liability that he had was catching balls over the wall...but given his athleticism I feel like he will figure that out too.  I like Engel but I like even more the idea of Ken Griffey, JR 2.0 gobbling every fly ball into CF for the next decade.  

The reply to your very well thought out response is that:

1.My thinking is that Robert's arm would be a more effective defensive weapon in RF than it is in CF. (Although your reference to KG Jr. made me think of his throw in the Black-out Game).

2. Robert had a few awkward plays going back to the wall and timing his leaps.  That is Engel's thing or one of the things he excels at. 

3. It is entertaining to watch Robert cover both gaps and dive for balls, but in in order to mitigate his risk for injury, switch him to RF with Engel in Center.

4. I don't see Engel as a corner outfielder. Hee looks like a decent CFer on the lines of Aaron Rowand.  Engel has paid his dues, and I think he deserves a shot as a starting CFer during Spring Training 2021, if the switch with Robert is considered.  Engel proved that he can hit the ball a long way and had a few clutch blasts. He also seemed to cut down on his sing and miss.

5. Hypothetically, let's say the Sox could acquire Byron Buxton. Wouldn't we then agree to put Buxton in CF and Robert in RF ?  Engel is not in that category, but I  am trying to illustrate that positioning players should not be something that is set in stone.  Many people didn't realize that Moncada  could make all the plays at 3rd so well until they switched him  there. Now he is one of the best 3rd basemen in the game.

 

Edited October 29, 2020 by tray

[Sleepy Harold]

1 hour ago, Vulture said:

I don't buy that. Players are traded all the time.

Trades happen. Typically you don't move your big ticket FA acquisition and largest guaranteed contract (to date) 1 year into his deal to extend a catcher that isn't as good. The way you're treated by the organization does matter to players when they're choosing a new home. 

[Vulture]

McCann has a higher WAR in less games since the beginning of 2019, has longer tenure with the Sox and is generally regarded as better handler of pitchers. Sox have retained almost their entire core with extensions, resigned Abreu etc. The fact they signed long term deals willingly foregoing free agency reflects more than trading Grandal would. A free agent would be attracted to a team that made itself better.  I don't think that potential free agents are worried about Grandal if he's traded in favor of a catcher with a better reputation of handling pitchers, has longer tenure and has outperformed him the last two years. And having McCann and Nimmo is better than Grandal. Probably less expensive too.

Can you actually give an example of a team primed to win trading a player and subsequently being unable to sign free agents?

Edited October 29, 2020 by Vulture

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Vulture said:

McCann has a higher WAR in less games since the beginning of 2019, has longer tenure with the Sox and is generally regarded as better handler of pitchers. Sox have retained almost their entire core with extensions, resigned Abreu etc. The fact they signed long term deals willingly foregoing free agency reflects more than trading Grandal would. A free agent would be attracted to a team that made itself better.  I don't think that potential free agents are worried about Grandal if he's traded in favor of a catcher with a better reputation of handling pitchers, has longer tenure and has outperformed him the last two years. And having McCann and Nimmo is better than Grandal. Probably less expensive too.

Can you actually give an example of a team primed to win trading a player and subsequently being unable to sign free agents?

Grandal fWAR = 6.9 in 199 games 

McCann fWAR = 3.8 149 games

Even if you increase McCann’s fWAR by 33% to account for the difference in games played it would only be sitting at 5.0.  That means Grandal has provided 40% more value over the past two seasons.  I’m guessing you are using bWAR which doesn’t account for framing in any capacity and is more or less useless for evaluating catchers.

I literally can’t wait for McCann to sign elsewhere so these “trade Grandal” ideas and the “McCann is better than Grandal” comments can end.

[michelangelosmonkey]

3 hours ago, tray said:

The reply to your very well thought out response is that:

1.My thinking is that Robert's arm would be a more effective defensive weapon in RF than it is in CF. (Although your reference to KG Jr. made me think of his throw in the Black-out Game).

2. Robert had a few awkward plays going back to the wall and timing his leaps.  That is Engel's thing or one of the things he excels at. 

3. It is entertaining to watch Robert cover both gaps and dive for balls, but in in order to mitigate his risk for injury, switch him to RF with Engel in Center.

4. I don't see Engel as a corner outfielder. Hee looks like a decent CFer on the lines of Aaron Rowand.  Engel has paid his dues, and I think he deserves a shot as a starting CFer during Spring Training 2021, if the switch with Robert is considered.  Engel proved that he can hit the ball a long way and had a few clutch blasts. He also seemed to cut down on his sing and miss.

5. Hypothetically, let's say the Sox could acquire Byron Buxton. Wouldn't we then agree to put Buxton in CF and Robert in RF ?  Engel is not in that category, but I  am trying to illustrate that positioning players should not be something that is set in stone.  Many people didn't realize that Moncada  could make all the plays at 3rd so well until they switched him  there. Now he is one of the best 3rd basemen in the game.

 

It's not an idiotic idea...If the idea is you want an outfield that has Engel/Robert the argument of having Engel in centerfield is sound.  The problem is that I don't really think Engel is a long term answer to anything...maybe fourth outfielder.   He's 29 years old with 1000 career at bats and only a .618 OPS, which is horrid.  He did have a very good year...but I also think Renteria did a nice job putting Engel in favorable spots to hit.  I see the positive developments you see in him and I think I've made the "why not Engel" argument.  It's just...Robert is amazing in Centerfield.  Having a CF with a canon IS valuable. Having a CF that can hit 35 home runs is much harder to find than it is a RF that hits 35 home runs because...you can put someone like Castellanos in RF and justify his bad defense with his good offense (Sox dodged a bullet on that one) but you cant put a Castellanos in CF.  Your argument about moving Moncada...I think 2b and 3B are roughly equal value defensively and the WS had a guy they think will be great coming up at 2B.   If the WS HAD a 22 year old Buxton in the system that was almost ready for the majors...well then you move Robert for the reasons you state...but that's not Engel.  Engel is just a guy. And honestly...Robert is going to be a top 3 CF in baseball defensively and offensively for 10 years.  Don't fix a problem that isn't there     

[michelangelosmonkey]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Grandal fWAR = 6.9 in 199 games 

McCann fWAR = 3.8 149 games

Even if you increase McCann’s fWAR by 33% to account for the difference in games played it would only be sitting at 5.0.  That means Grandal has provided 40% more value over the past two seasons.  I’m guessing you are using bWAR which doesn’t account for framing in any capacity and is more or less useless for evaluating catchers.

I literally can’t wait for McCann to sign elsewhere so these “trade Grandal” ideas and the “McCann is better than Grandal” comments can end.

I agree.  Grandal is underappreciated in this board.  I also think that from the beginning the Sox had a Grandal/Collins plan.  I think Collins spent all of 2020 playing in the Sox camp working on his game...and as I have argued often, he's only 25 and a lefty catcher with elite batting eye and power.  The Sox will have Grandal catch 110 games and  Collins catch 50 next year and hopefully that number flips in a couple of years.  McCann just made their plan hard because he's just been so good.  Someone is going to pay him top $ and the White Sox shouldn't throw excess money at a position that they are already solid at.

[The Hawk]

3 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I agree.  Grandal is underappreciated in this board.  I also think that from the beginning the Sox had a Grandal/Collins plan.  I think Collins spent all of 2020 playing in the Sox camp working on his game...and as I have argued often, he's only 25 and a lefty catcher with elite batting eye and power.  The Sox will have Grandal catch 110 games and  Collins catch 50 next year and hopefully that number flips in a couple of years.  McCann just made their plan hard because he's just been so good.  Someone is going to pay him top $ and the White Sox shouldn't throw excess money at a position that they are already solid at.

I think Collins is pretty much a bust as a player. I want Mercedes to be brought to the bigs and get some warranted at bats.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, The Hawk said:

I think Collins is pretty much a bust as a player. I want Mercedes to be brought to the bigs and get some warranted at bats.

I don't have a lot of expectations for Collins, but the kid has had a grand total of 120 scattered MLB PAs.  It is WAY to early to call him a bust, especially because the kid has never really gotten regular playing time.

[Sleepy Harold]

6 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

I think Collins is pretty much a bust as a player. I want Mercedes to be brought to the bigs and get some warranted at bats.

If Yermin gets DH ABs sure. If people think Collins isn't a good catcher, just wait until Yermin is behind the plate. 

[The Hawk]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I don't have a lot of expectations for Collins, but the kid has had a grand total of 120 scattered MLB PAs.  It is WAY to early to call him a bust, especially because the kid has never really gotten regular playing time.

I just have never seen any indication that the guy can hit. Even in the minor leagues his production has been negligible. As a receiver, he is bad blocking balls in the dirt and just looks stiff to me.

[The Hawk]

1 minute ago, Sleepy Harold said:

If Yermin gets DH ABs sure. If people think Collins isn't a good catcher, just wait until Yermin is behind the plate. 

You're right about Mercedes defense but he does mash the ball. His progression through the minor leagues in 2019 was amazing and he had better over-all numbers than Robert did. 

[Bob Sacamano]

5 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said:

If Yermin gets DH ABs sure. If people think Collins isn't a good catcher, just wait until Yermin is behind the plate. 

I honestly don't think Collins will be the backup catcher. One might open up as the DH (keep the seat warm for Vaughn) but I think they will sign a better defensive backup than Collins.

Edit: I wouldn't be opposed to them signing someone like Brantley to DH/get Eloy out of LF once in a while.

Edited October 29, 2020 by manbearpuig

[Sleepy Harold]

3 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

I just have never seen any indication that the guy can hit. Even in the minor leagues his production has been negligible. As a receiver, he is bad blocking balls in the dirt and just looks stiff to me.

You should check out Collins' AAA line last year pre and post his call up. After he was sent back down, he made some adjustments and tore up the IL in almost the same sample size. It doesn't mean that it will fully translate to the majors, but he did seem to turn the corner. 

 

pre callup: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/zack-collins/19181/game-log?type=-2&gds=2019-04-04&gde=2019-06-16&season=&position=C/DH

post: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/zack-collins/19181/game-log?type=-2&gds=2019-07-17&gde=2019-09-02&season=&position=C/DH