Mazara and Right Field Thread

[thxfrthmmrs]

I too believe there is an outside chance Mazara could break out, otherwise he's an below average RF and DH for us. And I would only bring him back for $2-3M if it meant that we sign Bauer and have to save on elsewhere, otherwise we should look for a better replacement.

[Capital G]

Get a good manager that will play him correctly. Sign Joc and play him against righties and engel against lefties.

Then sign cespedes for the future. 

Save your real $ for sp.

[The Hawk]

4 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If you’re talking all players at all positions none of this is remotely true.

I've been always talking about right fielders. He had a .785 OPS in 2019 and .745 in 2017. His power numbers have been over-all good for the right field position. People do different extracts of data and some of the data that they are grabbing reflects anyone who played a right field position or even one inning. Another pulls data from a source which has listed only players who reach the "minimum" number of ABs to be eligible for end of season awards.  Now there are people listing all players at all positions and changing the metric from home-runs to OPS.

I'm done. I care less what anyone thinks about Mazara frankly. 

[The Hawk]

9 hours ago, RagahRagah said:

Clearly you're a person who has never actually played poker at anything other than a home game level so obviously I'm not going to get anywhere with you here; saying there are "52 outcomes" where it pertains to card playing is about the biggest oversimplification I've ever witnessed someone use; to the point if absurdity. Using statistics is how you consistently win at poker, just like pretty much anything else in life.

Your arguments were invalidated for the most part and just like the other poster I sparred with you consistently failed to address the counter points and instead just go off on, as I said, fluff rantings. It's not going too far to simply point out a fact.

You're way in over your head and don't even grasp what you are talking about.

Wow you sure like to belittle people. Now, you talk about a guy never having played poker at all. Saying that using statistics is how you "consistently win at poker" is pretty funny.  Keep believing that is all that you need to do and see how your bank account will survive it.

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

Wow you sure like to belittle people. Now, you talk about a guy never having played poker at all. Saying that using statistics is how you "consistently win at poker" is pretty funny.  Keep believing that is all that you need to do and see how your bank account will survive it.

This is why casinos stay in business.

[Balta1701]

34 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

I too believe there is an outside chance Mazara could break out, otherwise he's an below average RF and DH for us. And I would only bring him back for $2-3M if it meant that we sign Bauer and have to save on elsewhere, otherwise we should look for a better replacement.

A guy with an outside chance of breaking out is a great candidate to be signed by the 2018 White Sox. A team with no plans to compete.

[Orlando]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

A guy with an outside chance of breaking out is a great candidate to be signed by the 2018 White Sox. A team with no plans to compete.

Mazara is the perfect fit for the Tigers or something 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Orlando said:

Mazara is the perfect fit for the Tigers or something 

If the 1 or 5 or whatever percent chance of him breaking out comes true, I don’t care. I worry about the 95% chance of him not breaking out and us losing the first round of the playoffs again while needing offense. At least bring in someone decent.

[thxfrthmmrs]

14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

A guy with an outside chance of breaking out is a great candidate to be signed by the 2018 White Sox. A team with no plans to compete.

If you sign Bauer and spends $45M on pitching, your options for RF/DH will limited. I’m ok with paying $2.5M to Mazara and let him get some ABs at DH and play some occasion OF until Vaughn is ready.

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

If you sign Bauer and spends $45M on pitching, your options for RF/DH will limited. I’m ok with paying $2.5M to Mazara and let him get some ABs at DH and play some occasion OF until Vaughn is ready.

As a depth piece that’s totally fine.  But we should strive to do better with our RF hole and under no circumstance do you offer him arbitration.

[Balta1701]

29 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

If you sign Bauer and spends $45M on pitching, your options for RF/DH will limited. I’m ok with paying $2.5M to Mazara and let him get some ABs at DH and play some occasion OF until Vaughn is ready.

Frankly, you don't sign Bauer and leave that much of a gaping hole there. If you're spending that kind of money, spend $8 million and take on Calhoun's contract from the D-Backs like you should have done last year. You don't invest that kind of money in your pitching staff and then go cheap on RF - even Rick Hahn figured that out in 2015 and 2016 (he couldn't figure out that Melky Cabrera and Alex Gordon were going to be bad contracts, but he knew he couldn't leave those holes open on his "competitive" teams). 

If you can't afford that last sliver of money, you can't afford Bauer. Team already has $105 million in guaranteed contracts for 2022 and that's before Giolito, Marshall, Fry, Engel, Ruiz, Cordero, and Lopez hit arbitration - add in $30m for Bauer to that and do the math yourself with any nontenders you want. You can't tell me that "I have a payroll limit of $140 million in 2021 and I just spent all I had on pitching", and then just have guaranteed $150 million in contracts for 2022 (or set yourself to have to trade Giolito because of it). 

[thxfrthmmrs]

22 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Frankly, you don't sign Bauer and leave that much of a gaping hole there. If you're spending that kind of money, spend $8 million and take on Calhoun's contract from the D-Backs like you should have done last year. You don't invest that kind of money in your pitching staff and then go cheap on RF - even Rick Hahn figured that out in 2015 and 2016 (he couldn't figure out that Melky Cabrera and Alex Gordon were going to be bad contracts, but he knew he couldn't leave those holes open on his "competitive" teams). 

If you can't afford that last sliver of money, you can't afford Bauer. Team already has $105 million in guaranteed contracts for 2022 and that's before Giolito, Marshall, Fry, Engel, Ruiz, Cordero, and Lopez hit arbitration - add in $30m for Bauer to that and do the math yourself with any nontenders you want. You can't tell me that "I have a payroll limit of $140 million in 2021 and I just spent all I had on pitching", and then just have guaranteed $150 million in contracts for 2022 (or set yourself to have to trade Giolito because of it). 

The need for RF is overblown. I am completely fine with "settling" for Leury/Engel platoon as the primary RF if it meant signing Bauer, Q, and another BP arm. You could never have enough pitching, it's a tired saying but it's true. Leury/Engel is 1 WAR player in 100 ABs this year, SSS, but even if you use 2019 stats, it's a reasonable projection. Mazara in this case is just a DH and occasional RF for cheap. Calhoun had a great short season, but he's broke out at age 33, and won't come free in a trade either. If Jerry is willing up open up the wallet for another $6M, I am ok to make a trade for him, but I won't give up on signing Bauer if it meant I couldn't trade for someone like Calhoun. I don't get the argument. It's easy to say that if you're already spending $50M in free agency, what's another $6M, but there's gotta be a hard limit somewhere.

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

The need for RF is overblown. I am completely fine with "settling" for Leury/Engel platoon as the primary RF if it meant signing Bauer, Q, and another BP arm. You could never have enough pitching, it's a tired saying but it's true. Leury/Engel is 1 WAR player in 100 ABs this year, SSS, but even if you use 2019 stats, it's a reasonable projection. Mazara in this case is just a DH and occasional RF for cheap. Calhoun had a great short season, but he's broke out at age 33, and won't come free in a trade either. If Jerry is willing up open up the wallet for another $6M, I am ok to make a trade for him, but I won't give up on signing Bauer if it meant I couldn't trade for someone like Calhoun. I don't get the argument. It's easy to say that if you're already spending $50M in free agency, what's another $6M, but there's gotta be a hard limit somewhere.

So what happens when your 2022 payroll after signing Bauer is already far above that 2021 limit and, because of the expanded playoffs, you get unlucky and go home in round 2 so your extra revenue is minimal (and look, we could be the best team in baseball and run into a Blake Snell Buzzsaw like the pitch I just watched and that could readily happen because this is baseball and we all know that could happen)? Who do you sell to get down to that limit? Giolito? Anderson? Moncada? Robert?

[thxfrthmmrs]

14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So what happens when your 2022 payroll after signing Bauer is already far above that 2021 limit and, because of the expanded playoffs, you get unlucky and go home in round 2 so your extra revenue is minimal (and look, we could be the best team in baseball and run into a Blake Snell Buzzsaw like the pitch I just watched and that could readily happen because this is baseball and we all know that could happen)? Who do you sell to get down to that limit? Giolito? Anderson? Moncada? Robert?

So what are you suggesting, not sign Bauer at all because of the fear not going far in the playoffs (which the probability is actually higher than the opposite)? What you suggested also goes against the idea to push a limit even more than you need to for a marginal upgrade. And the reason why Bauer is such a good fit for this team is he'll likely come in a one or two year deal, the 2022 payroll is the last thing I would worry about.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

So what are you suggesting, not sign Bauer at all because of the fear not going far in the playoffs (which the probability is actually higher than the opposite)? What you suggested also goes against the idea to push a limit even more than you need to for a marginal upgrade. And the reason why Bauer is such a good fit for this team is he'll likely come in a one or two year deal, the 2022 payroll is the last thing I would worry about.

I'll be completely honest, I think the idea that Bauer is going to sign a 1 year, $60 million deal is complete bullsh*t, and the idea that he's going to look at a 7 year, $220 million deal and turn it down for 1 year and $35 million is equally bullsh*t. He's not dumb. 

[fathom]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I'll be completely honest, I think the idea that Bauer is going to sign a 1 year, $60 million deal is complete bullsh*t, and the idea that he's going to look at a 7 year, $220 million deal and turn it down for 1 year and $35 million is equally bullsh*t. He's not dumb. 

He’s signing for multiple years for the most money he can. He’s made that obvious on his VLog.

[Balta1701]

Just now, fathom said:

He’s signing for multiple years for the most money he can. He’s made that obvious on his VLog.

I mean, if some team was actually willing to offer him $60 million on a 1 year deal expecting there's a good chance he's a 6 WAR pitcher this year, then taking 3 straight 1 year deals then signing a 3-4 year deal makes pretty good sense. You do that to re-shape the game when the economics are strong and it's an interesting proposal that could leave him with a lot more money in his pocket - if the White Sox just missed the playoffs with 92 wins this year, need pitching, and had really big crowds over 81 games, maybe they go nuts and do that for 1 year. 

Are we ready to do that right now?

[The Hawk]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is why casinos stay in business.

Yep. I happen to know some very good hold-em poker players, my son included. Some of the smartest "plays" in the world ended up losing a ton of money.

[reiks12]

Man watching Betts in this world series has be daydreaming what it would have been like to have him instead of Mazara. Mercy

[southsider2k5]

22 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

Yep. I happen to know some very good hold-em poker players, my son included. Some of the smartest "plays" in the world ended up losing a ton of money.

Going with feelings over odds repeatedly is the quickest way to fund that casino expansion. 

[The Hawk]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Going with feelings over odds repeatedly is the quickest way to fund that casino expansion. 

What are you arguing, anyway? No one knows what cards are in a blind nor in the down cards of another person's hand. Like it or not, poker is not in itself an odds game per se. Bluffing, betting strategy, trickery of sorts, etc. all play into the game don't they? Bad beats can bankrupt even the most astute odds better

[RagahRagah]

7 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Explain again, Dr Poker, how the eight of hearts would be a better right fielder than Mazara.  None is as smart as you but I'm working on my condescension game and its nice to learn at the foot of the master. 

   

The fact you keep responding with these childish smartass responses instead of actually implore me to explain what I'm talking about tells us everything we need to know. You're not actually trying to learn anything, you're just being a troll.

[RagahRagah]

3 hours ago, The Hawk said:

Wow you sure like to belittle people. Now, you talk about a guy never having played poker at all. Saying that using statistics is how you "consistently win at poker" is pretty funny.  Keep believing that is all that you need to do and see how your bank account will survive it.

It's not funny, it's a bona fide fucking fact.

I could tell you about David Sklansky just for starters. How do you think poker pros consistently stay at the top? You think it's total luck?

Yes, constant use of numbers and statistics is how you consistently win at poker. Any pro in history of the sport will tell you the same thing. The more you play the odds in your favor, the more successful you will be. You don't even need to understand statistics for this, it's just common sense. Have you ever even read a book on poker? Or... math?

I keep explaining my positions and you keep getting passive aggressive. If you had any actual interest in learning anything, you would have poor me to explain myself more rather than just dismiss what I'm saying.

Just as time and time again people have pointed out here, you're purely and simply wrong.

Edited October 28, 2020 by RagahRagah

[tray]

There were a lot of people who squealed when some us us suggested moving Moncada to third base in order to free up second for the eventual arrival of Madrigal.

They argued that second base was Moncada's "natural" position. Others suggested moving TA to CF.   None of those suggestions were crazy when they were made. Sometimes you just have to see how a player adjusts to a position and make a talent  evaluation from  there. .

Fast forward to Spring Training 2021.  I would like to see Engel start in CF and Robert in RF for a few games ....just to see how that works out.  Just try it.

 Long term, I look at Luis Robert as a prototypical  RFer.  He is a big man who might put more weight/muscle mass on in coming years.

Practically, I  do not want to see Robert  diving for balls in both gaps at high speed.   I want to minimize his risk for injury by playing him in RF and that is where his plus arm would be more valuable.

Engel  has developed into a full time major league player...as a center fielder.

Just my two cents.

More cents:  EE and Mazara are toast.  Bring Leury back , try to sign McCann, and try to sign Cespedes.

 

[michelangelosmonkey]

8 hours ago, RagahRagah said:

The fact you keep responding with these childish smartass responses instead of actually implore me to explain what I'm talking about tells us everything we need to know. You're not actually trying to learn anything, you're just being a troll.

Wait...so if I "implore you" you will teach me?   Let me get my chair.   To summarize so you know where to start teaching me...to this point you have taught me: That Poker is a higher intellectual pursuit and not random outcomes determined by the flip of a card because, shut up.  That the process of winning at poker is a dispassionate calculation of the odds and then wagering based on those odds (you didn't actually say that but I'm trying to help you).  That even if you lose in the short term at poker while following an intellectual process, since most of the people you are playing against are dumbasses, in the long term you will win.  That poker = baseball free agency (I have to use a bit of magic to make that leap but I've already forgone logic on the non-randomness of a card game so what do I have to lose at this point?).  That Hahn was not following a process in free agency but was in fact...what...randomly signing people...alphabetically signing people?  That the outcome of Hahn's free agency tenure of signing Abreu, Robert, McCann, Grandal and Keuchel was the result of luck...like drawing to an inside straight and having it come up five times...making those successes actual failures because his process was bad.  That we need to ignore where the White Sox team is right now, talent wise,  because any positive results are an illusion because...math.  That I don't play poker professionally, in fact I'm probably dumb and don't win at neighborhood poker.  That disagreeing with you makes me a fluff ranter.   I think that's about it...so...take it away Professor.