Convince Me: Marcus Stroman

[bmags]

Looking for our takes people.

I just can’t seem to make up my mind on Stroman. I am this man personified

I don’t think he’s bad. He’s kinda good. But he feels like that “solid B” free agent that Sox pay 80% of the what the A free agents get but get only 50% of the production.

Is anyone really pro or really anti Stroman and could let me know what you got? 

[Kyyle23]

Has he ever had any arm issues?  I know he hurt his calf this past summer but can't remember if he has had any issues with elbow or shoulder 

[South Side Hit Men]

No.

Hiring an actual pitching coach residing mentally and physically in the current millennium should help improve the current staff. 
 

Still surprised Kenny’s clubhouse snitch was finally shown the door, must have been a quid pro quo for Renteria or something else.

Edited October 21, 2020 by South Side Hit Men

[ChiSoxJon]

Really wanted us to draft him in '12 and have always liked him, but at this point, I think he's highly overvalued

[fathom]

Read where he said he’s looking to throw a lot more splitters next year.  And yes, the Sox were extremely close to picking him. From all accounts, he was their choice if Hawkins was picked before them.

[SonofaRoache]

To be honest, his overall production will remind you of Quintana. Very solid pitcher but nothing remarkable or memorable. On our team if all goes right, he is a number 3 where he belongs, possibly a number 4. This being if Kopech is the man quickly. 

Edited October 22, 2020 by SonofaRoache

[iWiN4PreP]

My interest in Stroman has increased since reading his tweets on his performance.

[Jose Abreu]

36 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

My interest in Stroman has increased since reading his tweets on his performance.

He's all the " scientific" aspects of Trevor Bauer but without the harassment scandals

[HaroldSouthside]

I’d rather not have Stroman. Just the classic White Sox “middle of the road and affordable” free agent signing that rarely works out on the southside. 
 

I really wish Bauer didn’t have baggage. 
 

(get Scherzer on a Covid-related discount)

[ChiSox59]

Keuchel deal or less I like him.

anything more than 3/55 or so and I’d pass.

[bmags]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

Read where he said he’s looking to throw a lot more splitters next year.  And yes, the Sox were extremely close to picking him. From all accounts, he was their choice if Hawkins was picked before them.

I like the splitter and sox success with sinkers recently, but with a change to pitching coach not sure if I should care about that.

[Leonard Zelig]

He really should pitch for Houston just because of his name. 

[Buehrle>Wood]

Are we even sure hes cool with the clubhouse? He did side with TA over the bat flip thing but thats all if I remember right. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

I think this is a fair topic. I think Stroman makes sense for the following reasons:

1. This link suggests that there will be some sort of budget, which will preclude spending on top targets in FA.

2. The system still has talent, but is shallow. When you look at it, of the top 10 there will be a lot of graduations, leaving scant reserves from which to trade to improve the 26 man roster. [Seriously, it'll be Kopech, a handful of former prep SPs, and Adolfo atop the prospect lists, once Vaughn arrives here next season.]

3. This guy sucked this year. I mean, he really, really really sucked. Seriously, he sucked out loud at baseball this season. He had the worst BB/9 among SPs in MLB. In a competitive window, this team can't count on him, until he can get his shit sorted. He needs to start 2021 in Charlotte or Schaumburg, and fvkcing get his BB/9 down to a level that won't make you dry heave. 

4. This guy is yet another SP who is on his way to bustville. Maybe he's a reason for Coop no longer being here, but he sucked even more than the guy in #3.

5. Over 162, this team will not even make it to the post season if it attempts to start the season with the guys under #3 &#4 in the starting rotation. Back in 2000, the SOX failed to make the postseason, due to an unreliable #5 SP. As currently comprised [Giolito-Keuchel-Dunning-Cease-Lopez], there's no prayer of making the postseason in a regular 162 game grind. Even if the SOX added Bauer, he can't pitch 3 times a week, and you'd have to hold your heaves for Cease and Lopez starts.

6. The payroll will require creativity to maintain future flexibility, when you consider that RF and a closer and an additional BP arm or two are needs, in addition to the gaping holes in the starting rotation. This is particularly important, if this team wants to retain the ability to add throughout the competitive window, and not just blow the entire payroll load in one offseason.

7. This list of FA SPs shows one or two top-end options, and then a cavalcade of geezing geezers, and other vets with their share of questions. If they propose Odorizzi having a market value of $17MM, I'd much rather have Stroman at ~half of that or less, PLUS Q at ~half of that as well.

8. He's had a strong GB rate rate over the course of his career, which could help him provide a good amount of IP, and lessen the burden on the BP over 162.

 

TL/DR: Bauer can help in a playoff series, but he can't pitch more than once every five days. Just to be able to GET TO the playoffs, and to enable Cease re-find the strike zone, I'd rather sign 2 veteran SPs [Stroman/Q], and only have to gamble on Dunning as the #5.

 

Edited October 22, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[southsider2k5]

9 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I think this is a fair topic. I think Stroman makes sense for the following reasons:

1. This link suggests that there will be some sort of budget, which will preclude spending on top targets in FA.

2. The system still has talent, but is shallow. When you look at it, of the top 10 there will be a lot of graduations, leaving scant reserves from which to trade to improve the 26 man roster. [Seriously, it'll be Kopech, a handful of former prep SPs, and Adolfo atop the prospect lists, once Vaughn arrives here next season.]

3. This guy sucked this year. I mean, he really, really really sucked. Seriously, he sucked out loud at baseball this season. He had the worst BB/9 among SPs in MLB. In a competitive window, this team can't count on him, until he can get his shit sorted. He needs to start 2021 in Charlotte or Schaumburg, and fvkcing get his BB/9 down to a level that won't make you dry heave. 

4. This guy is yet another SP who is on his way to bustville. Maybe he's a reason for Coop no longer being here, but he sucked even more than the guy in #3.

5. Over 162, this team will not even make it to the post season if it attempts to start the season with the guys under #3 &#4 in the starting rotation. Back in 2000, the SOX failed to make the postseason, due to an unreliable #5 SP. As currently comprised [Giolito-Keuchel-Dunning-Cease-Lopez], there's no prayer of making the postseason in a regular 162 game grind. Even if the SOX added Bauer, he can't pitch 3 times a week, and you'd have to hold your heaves for Cease and Lopez starts.

6. The payroll will require creativity to maintain future flexibility, when you consider that RF and a closer and an additional BP arm or two are needs, in addition to the gaping holes in the starting rotation. This is particularly important, if this team wants to retain the ability to add throughout the competitive window, and not just blow the entire payroll load in one offseason.

7. This list of FA SPs shows one or two top-end options, and then a cavalcade of geezing geezers, and other vets with their share of questions. If they propose Odorizzi having a market value of $17MM, I'd much rather have Stroman at ~half of that or less, PLUS Q at ~half of that as well.

8. He's had a strong GB rate rate over the course of his career, which could help him provide a good amount of IP, and lessen the burden on the BP over 162.

 

TL/DR: Bauer can help in a playoff series, but he can't pitch more than once every five days. Just to be able to GET TO the playoffs, and to enable Cease re-find the strike zone, I'd rather sign 2 veteran SPs [Stroman/Q], and only have to gamble on Dunning as the #5.

 

I don't know why this would be a surprise. 

[RagahRagah]

Tl;dr summary:

As much as we're all happy Hahn canned Ricky and Coop, the fact we even have to have this conversation with all valid points relevant to it (ie. Good or not, Stroman reeks of that typical White Sox aura for seeking pitching) is a testament to how badly he failed to acquire quality, young starting pitching last year and at the deadline when there were a good amount to be had.

IMO getting Bauer is an absolute must, Stroman or no Stroman.

Edited October 22, 2020 by KonerkoFan1

[bmags]

10 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I think this is a fair topic. I think Stroman makes sense for the following reasons:

1. This link suggests that there will be some sort of budget, which will preclude spending on top targets in FA.

2. The system still has talent, but is shallow. When you look at it, of the top 10 there will be a lot of graduations, leaving scant reserves from which to trade to improve the 26 man roster. [Seriously, it'll be Kopech, a handful of former prep SPs, and Adolfo atop the prospect lists, once Vaughn arrives here next season.]

3. This guy sucked this year. I mean, he really, really really sucked. Seriously, he sucked out loud at baseball this season. He had the worst BB/9 among SPs in MLB. In a competitive window, this team can't count on him, until he can get his shit sorted. He needs to start 2021 in Charlotte or Schaumburg, and fvkcing get his BB/9 down to a level that won't make you dry heave. 

4. This guy is yet another SP who is on his way to bustville. Maybe he's a reason for Coop no longer being here, but he sucked even more than the guy in #3.

5. Over 162, this team will not even make it to the post season if it attempts to start the season with the guys under #3 &#4 in the starting rotation. Back in 2000, the SOX failed to make the postseason, due to an unreliable #5 SP. As currently comprised [Giolito-Keuchel-Dunning-Cease-Lopez], there's no prayer of making the postseason in a regular 162 game grind. Even if the SOX added Bauer, he can't pitch 3 times a week, and you'd have to hold your heaves for Cease and Lopez starts.

6. The payroll will require creativity to maintain future flexibility, when you consider that RF and a closer and an additional BP arm or two are needs, in addition to the gaping holes in the starting rotation. This is particularly important, if this team wants to retain the ability to add throughout the competitive window, and not just blow the entire payroll load in one offseason.

7. This list of FA SPs shows one or two top-end options, and then a cavalcade of geezing geezers, and other vets with their share of questions. If they propose Odorizzi having a market value of $17MM, I'd much rather have Stroman at ~half of that or less, PLUS Q at ~half of that as well.

8. He's had a strong GB rate rate over the course of his career, which could help him provide a good amount of IP, and lessen the burden on the BP over 162.

 

TL/DR: Bauer can help in a playoff series, but he can't pitch more than once every five days. Just to be able to GET TO the playoffs, and to enable Cease re-find the strike zone, I'd rather sign 2 veteran SPs [Stroman/Q], and only have to gamble on Dunning as the #5.

 

I think this is fair, but unfortunately for his circumstances I think that 17mill is unlikely for Odorizzi this year. He gambled and lost.

Overall it seems like nobody likes stroman that much, nobody hates stroman, either. He's a bit like Keuchel in more than one way there (though some really hated keuchel.)

Last year I really didn't want to soak up salary on B pieces. One difference is I am a full believer that we have a big core now, and we need players we can rely on next year. But after this offseason I don't think we'll really have the flexibility to jump on an A/A+ piece if they become available in the coming years and that's a bummer. But I'd take the fact that our core is what I expected over y'know, what happened to the phils.

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

I don't know why this would be a surprise. 

Oh, its not a surprise to those of us who have been paying attention to the way this org operates. As it has been said, "If someone shows you who they are through their actions, you should believe them."

I included that item as #1 on the list, so that those who think we have a snowball's chance in hell of signing a top end FA are confronted with real-world conditions in this org. I included item #6 as further evidence of this org's very real budgetary constraints, whether one believes them to be legit or not.

 

That aside, we'll get to read the usual, tired posts of "would, could or should" arguments all offseason. As in variations of:

"If I were JR, I WOULD sign Bauer!" Or,

"The SOX have plenty of money. They COULD sign Bauer!" Or,

"Bauer's really good at baseball. They SHOULD sign him, no matter what!"

 

We've read variations of these same 3 arguments ad nauseum about pretty much every top FA in pretty much every offseason. Yet, Machado, Harper, Gerrit Cole, and even Wheeler signed elsewhere. While I could be wrong about the SOX having budgetary constraints that will (once again) preclude siging top end FAs, I also think we're seeing a decades-long trend of them generally not doing so.

YMMV.

Edited October 22, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[bmags]

20 minutes ago, KonerkoFan1 said:

Tl;dr summary:

As much as we're all happy Hahn canned Ricky and Coop, the fact we even have to have this conversation with all valid points relevant to it (ie. Good or not, Stroman reeks of that typical White Sox aura for seeking pitching) is a testament to how badly he failed to acquire quality, young starting pitching last year and at the deadline when there were a good amount to be had.

IMO getting Bauer is an absolute must, Stroman or no Stroman.

who?

[Two-Gun Pete]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

I think this is fair, but unfortunately for his circumstances I think that 17mill is unlikely for Odorizzi this year. He gambled and lost.

Overall it seems like nobody likes stroman that much, nobody hates stroman, either. He's a bit like Keuchel in more than one way there (though some really hated keuchel.)

Last year I really didn't want to soak up salary on B pieces. One difference is I am a full believer that we have a big core now, and we need players we can rely on next year. But after this offseason I don't think we'll really have the flexibility to jump on an A/A+ piece if they become available in the coming years and that's a bummer. But I'd take the fact that our core is what I expected over y'know, what happened to the phils.

Oh, I hear you. 

I happen to think that adding ~340ish or so IP of ~4 to ~4.25 FIP to this rotation is exactly what this team needs. I would love to add Bauer and his ~180ish or so IP of ~3ish FIP, but then we'd all have to vomit on Lopez's and Cease's starts all year long. And, we'd also probably have to go without re-siging colome, and have to live with a black hole in RF as well.

While I share your reservations about "B-level" FAs, looking at Stroman & Q, they're younger, and better than, say Gio Gonzalez. And if signing these two can ALSO allow re-signing Colome and a cromulent, 100 wrc+, +1 or more DRS, ~2.0ish fWAR everyday RFer, I think I'd take it over Bauer and ONLY Bauer signed this offseason.

Edited October 22, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[Bob Sacamano]

11 hours ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Are we even sure hes cool with the clubhouse? He did side with TA over the bat flip thing but thats all if I remember right. 

He would be fine if he is signed here.

[Two-Gun Pete]

17 hours ago, bmags said:

I don’t think he’s bad. He’s kinda good. But he feels like that “solid B” free agent that Sox pay 80% of the what the A free agents get but get only 50% of the production.

Is anyone really pro or really anti Stroman and could let me know what you got? 

Last thing I'll post on this. Here's a link from another source that speaks to his elite spin rates, his high GB rates, and his ability to regularly go 6IP in most of his outings. They express why I favor Stroman as part of a 2 FA SP solution this offseason better than I can:

Trashstros fans post about Stroman

Edited October 22, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[bmags]

9 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Oh, I hear you. 

I happen to think that adding ~340ish or so IP of ~4 to ~4.25 FIP to this rotation is exactly what this team needs. I would love to add Bauer and his ~180ish or so IP of ~3ish FIP, but then we'd all have to vomit on Lopez's and Cease's starts all year long. And, we'd also probably have to go without re-siging colome, and have to live with a black hole in RF as well.

While I share your reservations about "B-level" FAs, looking at Stroman & Q, they're younger, and better than, say Gio Gonzalez. And if signing these two can ALSO allow re-signing Colome and a cromulent, 100 wrc+, +1 or more DRS, ~2.0ish fWAR everyday RFer, I think I'd take it over Bauer and ONLY Bauer signed this offseason.

This actually is where I'm at, I just like Odorizzi more than you. But I'd actually be okay with 2 of the following, but especially if we end up L Hendricks, Treinen and depending on scouting/injury report Kela in BP (or colome but I worry about his shoulder).

 

You could convince me on a ton of these as the piece behind Stroman (assuming bauer out of range):

Brett Anderson (33)
Chase Anderson (33) – $9.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Chris Archer (32) – $11MM club option with a $250K buyout
Jake Arrieta (35)
Homer Bailey (35)
Trevor Bauer (30)
Trevor Cahill (33)
Tyler Chatwood (31)
Anthony DeSclafani (31)
Robbie Erlin (30)
Mike Fiers (36)
Kevin Gausman (30)
Gio Gonzalez (35) — $7MM club option with a $500K buyout
Cole Hamels (37)
J.A. Happ (38)
Rich Hill (41)
Merrill Kelly (32) — $4.25MM club option with a $500K buyout
Corey Kluber (35) — $17.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Mike Leake (33) — $18MM mutual option with a $5MM buyout
Wade LeBlanc (36)
Jon Lester (37) — $25MM mutual option with a $10MM buyout
Tommy Milone (34)
Mike Minor (33)
Matt Moore (32)
Charlie Morton (37) — $15MM club option with no buyout
Jimmy Nelson (32) — $2MM club option (can become $9MM mutual option based on innings total)
Ivan Nova (34)
Jake Odorizzi (31)
James Paxton (32)
Martin Perez (30) — $6.25MM club option with a $500K buyout
Rick Porcello (32)
Jose Quintana (32)
Robbie Ray (29) (assume he's more but i'm interested)
Garrett Richards (33)
Tyson Ross (34)
Jeff Samardzija (36)
Anibal Sanchez (37) — $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Matt Shoemaker (34)
Drew Smyly (32)
Masahiro Tanaka (32)
Julio Teheran (30)
Michael Wacha (29)
Adam Wainwright (39)
Taijuan Walker (28)
Alex Wood (30)
Jordan Zimmermann (35)

There are interesting depth pieces this year that could feasibly perform above their heads or at least be a floor of giving legit innings which we can't guarantee Cease can.

[Two-Gun Pete]

21 minutes ago, bmags said:

This actually is where I'm at, I just like Odorizzi more than you. But I'd actually be okay with 2 of the following, but especially if we end up L Hendricks, Treinen and depending on scouting/injury report Kela in BP (or colome but I worry about his shoulder).

 

You could convince me on a ton of these as the piece behind Stroman (assuming bauer out of range):

Brett Anderson (33)
Chase Anderson (33) – $9.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Chris Archer (32) – $11MM club option with a $250K buyout
Jake Arrieta (35)
Homer Bailey (35)
Trevor Bauer (30)
Trevor Cahill (33)
Tyler Chatwood (31)
Anthony DeSclafani (31)
Robbie Erlin (30)
Mike Fiers (36)
Kevin Gausman (30)
Gio Gonzalez (35) — $7MM club option with a $500K buyout
Cole Hamels (37)
J.A. Happ (38)
Rich Hill (41)
Merrill Kelly (32) — $4.25MM club option with a $500K buyout
Corey Kluber (35) — $17.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Mike Leake (33) — $18MM mutual option with a $5MM buyout
Wade LeBlanc (36)
Jon Lester (37) — $25MM mutual option with a $10MM buyout
Tommy Milone (34)
Mike Minor (33)
Matt Moore (32)
Charlie Morton (37) — $15MM club option with no buyout
Jimmy Nelson (32) — $2MM club option (can become $9MM mutual option based on innings total)
Ivan Nova (34)
Jake Odorizzi (31)
James Paxton (32)
Martin Perez (30) — $6.25MM club option with a $500K buyout
Rick Porcello (32)
Jose Quintana (32)
Robbie Ray (29) (assume he's more but i'm interested)
Garrett Richards (33)
Tyson Ross (34)
Jeff Samardzija (36)
Anibal Sanchez (37) — $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Matt Shoemaker (34)
Drew Smyly (32)
Masahiro Tanaka (32)
Julio Teheran (30)
Michael Wacha (29)
Adam Wainwright (39)
Taijuan Walker (28)
Alex Wood (30)
Jordan Zimmermann (35)

There are interesting depth pieces this year that could feasibly perform above their heads or at least be a floor of giving legit innings which we can't guarantee Cease can.

Whoops, two other reasons why I favor specifically Stroman and Q that I'd forgotten to post last night. Your list above just reminded me. Consider these #s 9 & 10 from my list above:

9. This org has pursued what they thought were "B-level" FAs in the past, such as squandering $7MM on a 34 year old Gio Gonzalez, and $12MM on a geezing geezer in Encarnacion. However, Stroman will only turn 30 this offseason, while Q will turn 32 this offseason. I think they're more likely to retain a decent level of performance, given their ages.

10. Stroman and Q have both had the equivalent of the 2020 season off. (Q went 10 IP for the scrubs.) Like Keuchel before them, who had half of 2019 and half of a normal 2020 season off, this reduced workload at this point in their careers may help them to retain their performances better/for a few more years than "normal" 30/32 year olds.

 

As you just post, yes, this rotation needs a better floor of performances from their #3/4 (Cease/Lopez) are likely to give them. To your point, I think there are other choices than Stroman/Q as solutions in this regard. But for the 10 reasons I mentioned, plus that trashstros fans post, I specifically favor Stroman/Q as FA additions this offseason.

 

Edited October 22, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[southsider2k5]

36 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Oh, its not a surprise to those of us who have been paying attention to the way this org operates. As it has been said, "If someone shows you who they are through their actions, you should believe them."

I included that item as #1 on the list, so that those who think we have a snowball's chance in hell of signing a top end FA are confronted with real-world conditions in this org. I included item #6 as further evidence of this org's very real budgetary constraints, whether one believes them to be legit or not.

 

That aside, we'll get to read the usual, tired posts of "would, could or should" arguments all offseason. As in variations of:

"If I were JR, I WOULD sign Bauer!" Or,

"The SOX have plenty of money. They COULD sign Bauer!" Or,

"Bauer's really good at baseball. They SHOULD sign him, no matter what!"

 

We've read variations of these same 3 arguments ad nauseum about pretty much every top FA in pretty much every offseason. Yet, Machado, Harper, Gerrit Cole, and even Wheeler signed elsewhere. While I could be wrong about the SOX having budgetary constraints that will (once again) preclude siging top end FAs, I also think we're seeing a decades-long trend of them generally not doing so.

YMMV.

Its like people don't pay any attention to reality and instead waste their times in their feelings.  MLB is looking at a 3 BILLION dollar loss this year.  If you put the Sox somewhere in the middle of the revenue pack, which this team usually is, that puts about us shouldering about the average of a $100,000,000 loss in revenues.  The Sox were valued at $1.65 billion, so we are talking about a loss equal to something like 6% of the franchises total valuation.  Digging even deeper, Forbes pegged the Sox with operating revenue of $285 million in 2019.  Let's be generous and say between what's on the book, and what is off of the books, they really bring in $500 million a year.  20% of that revenue is gone, with no promise that it will be back in 2020.  So you expect things to go on like normal with a minimum of a 20% hit to the bottom line?

Hahn already tipped his cards to this winter, essentially saying they might have to wait and see how things develop this winter.  Nothing about this off season will be normal.  It also won't just be the White Sox.  We are seeing team after team with much healthier bottom lines than the White Sox talking about cutting dollars this winter.  The Yankees are talking about cutting payroll.  That franchise put up almost $700 million in revenue according to Forbes last year.  Add their off of the books stuff, they are easily over a billion.  Get past your hurt feelings, and look at the new reality.