Convince Me: Marcus Stroman

[Balta1701]

13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Its like people don't pay any attention to reality and instead waste their times in their feelings.  MLB is looking at a 3 BILLION dollar loss this year.  If you put the Sox somewhere in the middle of the revenue pack, which this team usually is, that puts about us shouldering about the average of a $100,000,000 loss in revenues.  The Sox were valued at $1.65 billion, so we are talking about a loss equal to something like 6% of the franchises total valuation.  Digging even deeper, Forbes pegged the Sox with operating revenue of $285 million in 2019.  Let's be generous and say between what's on the book, and what is off of the books, they really bring in $500 million a year.  20% of that revenue is gone, with no promise that it will be back in 2020.  So you expect things to go on like normal with a minimum of a 20% hit to the bottom line?

Hahn already tipped his cards to this winter, essentially saying they might have to wait and see how things develop this winter.  Nothing about this off season will be normal.  It also won't just be the White Sox.  We are seeing team after team with much healthier bottom lines than the White Sox talking about cutting dollars this winter.  The Yankees are talking about cutting payroll.  That franchise put up almost $700 million in revenue according to Forbes last year.  Add their off of the books stuff, they are easily over a billion.  Get past your hurt feelings, and look at the new reality. 

With the shortened season, spotrac shows the league average payroll at $59 million. That means total player salary for 30 teams comes to $1.8 billion. 

When they didn’t have to pay staff to open ballparks, does that claimed loss make any sense? It still does not to me. 

The White Sox’s payroll this year was $43 million. If revenue was 0, that means everyone else would have to blow through $57 million, without having to pay any ballpark employees. Revenue of course is not zero, so all the other staff have to blow what, $100 million to believe that number? 

[RagahRagah]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

who?

Wow. Really?

Last 2 years free agents: Cole (yes, no way it was gonna happen but it could have), Wheeler, Corbin, McHugh, Eovaldi, Ryu, Lynn and that's not even the total list. I don't think going after Gio Gonzalez was a bad move, but that one just didn't work out. But that's no excuse to not go after TOR starters or at least another solid option (besides Dallas, who I was fine with as a tier 2.5 option seemingly at best at the time).

Not to mention a lot of decent relievers that have been out there the last couple years that we didn't have, either. Luckily, some guys in our pen are coming into their own but that's besides the point.

Edited October 22, 2020 by KonerkoFan1

[bmags]

37 minutes ago, KonerkoFan1 said:

Wow. Really?

Last 2 years free agents: Cole (yes, no way it was gonna happen but it could have), Wheeler, Corbin, McHugh, Eovaldi, Ryu, Lynn and that's not even the total list. I don't think going after Gio Gonzalez was a bad move, but that one just didn't work out. But that's no excuse to not go after TOR starters or at least another solid option (besides Dallas, who I was fine with as a tier 2.5 option seemingly at best at the time).

Not to mention a lot of decent relievers that have been out there the last couple years that we didn't have, either. Luckily, some guys in our pen are coming into their own but that's besides the point.

You have a strange way of defining young and quality. I assumed you meant young which only wheeler/cole were true on that list. McHugh is a 33 year old spot starter. Lynn is 35, Ryu is 33. I have no qualms about missing out on Eovaldi. Corbin would have been good, but that was also pre-2019 season where I don't mind them still waiting it out.

[RagahRagah]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

You have a strange way of defining young and quality. I assumed you meant young which only wheeler/cole were true on that list. McHugh is a 33 year old spot starter. Lynn is 35, Ryu is 33. I have no qualms about missing out on Eovaldi. Corbin would have been good, but that was also pre-2019 season where I don't mind them still waiting it out.

My apologies, I should have stated and / or.

And I believe I am correct. At least a few of those names were definitely worth going after in spending the money on. Lynn and McHugh were a little older but both serviceable at the very least.

And frankly people's recent obsession with age is also amusing to me as well. As soon as someone is even approaching 30 all of a sudden no one seemingly thinks they are worth a shit anymore and it is mind-boggling to me. Lynn is dealing and could have been had easily, who cares how old he is? We also have had the money to spare to take at least 1 risk anyway.

You even somewhat agreed with me about the rest so I'm not sure where your quarrel is. As I stated, those guys were absolutely worth going after and  not having done so (frankly you having "no qualms" is irrelevant) so has put us in a pickle (imagine that after so many people were shortsighted here and complained we were acquiring "too much" pitching) where we are now essentially aiming for the moon with ONE TOR guy who for multiple reasons will likely not end up here. 

Hahn royally fucked up where it pertains to pitching the last few seasons.

Edited October 22, 2020 by KonerkoFan1

[Vulture]

There's a big difference between a loss of revenue and a loss. Mlb TV revenue alone is greater than mlb payroll.

[ron883]

Not gonna lie, for some reason I feel a short pitcher like him won't age well. I don't have any proof back that though so it is probably innacurate. It's probably just irrational fear after seeing how poorly Lincecum aged. 

The guy is only 5'7" though. He's even shorter than Nick Madrigal. 

[pcq]

On 10/22/2020 at 9:58 AM, Two-Gun Pete said:

Oh, its not a surprise to those of us who have been paying attention to the way this org operates. As it has been said, "If someone shows you who they are through their actions, you should believe them."

I included that item as #1 on the list, so that those who think we have a snowball's chance in hell of signing a top end FA are confronted with real-world conditions in this org. I included item #6 as further evidence of this org's very real budgetary constraints, whether one believes them to be legit or not.

 

That aside, we'll get to read the usual, tired posts of "would, could or should" arguments all offseason. As in variations of:

"If I were JR, I WOULD sign Bauer!" Or,

"The SOX have plenty of money. They COULD sign Bauer!" Or,

"Bauer's really good at baseball. They SHOULD sign him, no matter what!"

 

We've read variations of these same 3 arguments ad nauseum about pretty much every top FA in pretty much every offseason. Yet, Machado, Harper, Gerrit Cole, and even Wheeler signed elsewhere. While I could be wrong about the SOX having budgetary constraints that will (once again) preclude siging top end FAs, I also think we're seeing a decades-long trend of them generally not doing so.

YMMV.

I don't think signing Bauer is realistic though they have been bidding in recent years. Do they have the operating capital right now. I don't see the ballparks opening until mid season with a lot of empty seats.

[Flash]

On 10/22/2020 at 12:02 PM, Balta1701 said:

With the shortened season, spotrac shows the league average payroll at $59 million. That means total player salary for 30 teams comes to $1.8 billion. 

When they didn’t have to pay staff to open ballparks, does that claimed loss make any sense? It still does not to me. 

The White Sox’s payroll this year was $43 million. If revenue was 0, that means everyone else would have to blow through $57 million, without having to pay any ballpark employees. Revenue of course is not zero, so all the other staff have to blow what, $100 million to believe that number? 

Payroll (Forbes) @ 54% of Revenue (2018). It is not clear what the revenue line is/was for 2020 but safe to assume the Sox will lose in the neighborhood of $40-$50M. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

3 hours ago, pcq said:

I don't think signing Bauer is realistic though they have been bidding in recent years. Do they have the operating capital right now. I don't see the ballparks opening until mid season with a lot of empty seats.

After JR whined like an overpriviledged b**** about losing money during the pandemic, I think it's a guarantee that they wont sign Bauer. 

At the same time, even as good as Bauer is, I don't think its prudent to blow all of your payroll flexibility on one guy. That is, when this rotation needs TWO FA SPs, IMO. And a closer, and a RFer, and another BP arm or two.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

After JR whined like an overpriviledged b**** about losing money during the pandemic, I think it's a guarantee that they wont sign Bauer. 

At the same time, even as good as Bauer is, I don't think its prudent to blow all of your payroll flexibility on one guy. That is, when this rotation needs TWO FA SPs, IMO. And a closer, and a RFer, and another BP arm or two.

They definitely don’t need three relievers signed to major league contracts.  I’d wager they add just one reliever and go with Bummer, Marshall, Crochet, Heuer, Foster, Fry, and probably have López compete against Lambert for the long reliever role.  That’s all assuming they add two legit starters.  If they add just one, I think they go sign a veteran swingman to provide some protection for Cease or whoever gets the final rotation spot.

[Bob Sacamano]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

They definitely don’t need three relievers signed to major league contracts.  I’d wager they add just one reliever and go with Bummer, Marshall, Crochet, Heuer, Foster, Fry, and probably have López compete against Lambert for the long reliever role.  That’s all assuming they add two legit starters.  If they add just one, I think they go sign a veteran swingman to provide some protection for Cease or whoever gets the final rotation spot.

I'm going to guess Crochet is a starter in the minors next year while they manage his workload. Would look to see him called up right before September to pitch out of the pen though. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

They definitely don’t need three relievers signed to major league contracts.  I’d wager they add just one reliever and go with Bummer, Marshall, Crochet, Heuer, Foster, Fry, and probably have López compete against Lambert for the long reliever role.  That’s all assuming they add two legit starters.  If they add just one, I think they go sign a veteran swingman to provide some protection for Cease or whoever gets the final rotation spot.

I agree, they need 2 legit starters, not one great (but expensive) starter. I favor Q/Stroman for this offseason.

I then ship Cease and his vomit-inducing 5+ BB/9 the fvkc down to Charlotte, with the express orders that he doesn't see MLB again until he gets his shit sorted. I also want to make use of his (I think) only remaining option to do so.

I think you then only have to suffer through a competition between Dunning and Lopez for the 5th SP. I think Lambert and Stiever have options, so off they go to Charlotte.

 

Insofar as the BP goes, I think Colome is as good as is available now for the closer. But, my rule of thumb is that EVERY offseason you need to add a bullpen arm or two. So, it may be 2 BP arms, or 3. Remember that Crochet will be better served to try to stretch him out to be a SP. Also, I feel like Bummer hasnt been injured since I started this post, so he'll likely be due for another one by the time the season starts.

[Chicago White Sox]

37 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I agree, they need 2 legit starters, not one great (but expensive) starter. I favor Q/Stroman for this offseason.

I then ship Cease and his vomit-inducing 5+ BB/9 the fvkc down to Charlotte, with the express orders that he doesn't see MLB again until he gets his shit sorted. I also want to make use of his (I think) only remaining option to do so.

I think you then only have to suffer through a competition between Dunning and Lopez for the 5th SP. I think Lambert and Stiever have options, so off they go to Charlotte.

 

Insofar as the BP goes, I think Colome is as good as is available now for the closer. But, my rule of thumb is that EVERY offseason you need to add a bullpen arm or two. So, it may be 2 BP arms, or 3. Remember that Crochet will be better served to try to stretch him out to be a SP. Also, I feel like Bummer hasnt been injured since I started this post, so he'll likely be due for another one by the time the season starts.

You can’t sign guys to guaranteed contracted and have them sit in Charlotte.  So adding these extra arms means some other guys who have proven themselves won’t be with the major league club.  IMO, Bummer, Marshall, Heuer, Foster, & Fry are 100% locks for bullpen spots.  Given his lack of innings, I really think that Hahn is going to have Crochet pitch out of the bullpen next year and then stretch him out in 2022.  That’s six spots already accounted for.  To me you add one back-end guy and then just let López battle whoever for the long-man role.  I’m all for adding some guys via trade or waiver pick-up that can sit in AAA and serve as depth, but I don’t think it’s realistic to expect a lot of additions to the major league pen.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

22 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You can’t sign guys to guaranteed contracted and have them sit in Charlotte.  So adding these extra arms means some other guys who have proven themselves won’t be with the major league club.  IMO, Bummer, Marshall, Heuer, Foster, & Fry are 100% locks for bullpen spots.  Given his lack of innings, I really think that Hahn is going to have Crochet pitch out of the bullpen next year and then stretch him out in 2022.  That’s six spots already accounted for.  To me you add one back-end guy and then just let López battle whoever for the long-man role.  I’m all for adding some guys via trade or waiver pick-up that can sit in AAA and serve as depth, but I don’t think it’s realistic to expect a lot of additions to the major league pen.

What about Cordero? He should make the team in my opinion, he is good if he’s not used and abused by Ricky.

[Chicago White Sox]

27 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

What about Cordero? He should make the team in my opinion, he is good if he’s not used and abused by Ricky.

He’s got an option left and would be next man up for me.  Good problem to have.

[macsandz]

On 10/22/2020 at 2:07 PM, KonerkoFan1 said:

My apologies, I should have stated and / or.

And I believe I am correct. At least a few of those names were definitely worth going after in spending the money on. Lynn and McHugh were a little older but both serviceable at the very least.

And frankly people's recent obsession with age is also amusing to me as well. As soon as someone is even approaching 30 all of a sudden no one seemingly thinks they are worth a shit anymore and it is mind-boggling to me. Lynn is dealing and could have been had easily, who cares how old he is? We also have had the money to spare to take at least 1 risk anyway.

You even somewhat agreed with me about the rest so I'm not sure where your quarrel is. As I stated, those guys were absolutely worth going after and  not having done so (frankly you having "no qualms" is irrelevant) so has put us in a pickle (imagine that after so many people were shortsighted here and complained we were acquiring "too much" pitching) where we are now essentially aiming for the moon with ONE TOR guy who for multiple reasons will likely not end up here. 

Hahn royally fucked up where it pertains to pitching the last few seasons.

By signing Keuchel and not kidnapping Wheeler with the highest ransom? 

[Sarava]

Didn't Stroman opt out in 2020? What makes anyone think he wont do that again next year? The pandemic isn't going to go poof and go away, no matter what our president says.

[Vulture]

He guaranteed on his twitter feed a minimum 3.5 war per year to whoever signs him for one

18 minutes ago, Sarava said:

Didn't Stroman opt out in 2020? What makes anyone think he wont do that again next year? The pandemic isn't going to go poof and go away, no matter what our president says.

He guaranteed on his twitter feed a minimum 3.5 war every year to whoever signs him for one.

[southsider2k5]

41 minutes ago, Sarava said:

Didn't Stroman opt out in 2020? What makes anyone think he wont do that again next year? The pandemic isn't going to go poof and go away, no matter what our president says.

YOu only get an opt out if a team is willing to agree to one.

[Two-Gun Pete]

7 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You can’t sign guys to guaranteed contracted and have them sit in Charlotte.  So adding these extra arms means some other guys who have proven themselves won’t be with the major league club.  IMO, Bummer, Marshall, Heuer, Foster, & Fry are 100% locks for bullpen spots.  Given his lack of innings, I really think that Hahn is going to have Crochet pitch out of the bullpen next year and then stretch him out in 2022.  That’s six spots already accounted for.  To me you add one back-end guy and then just let López battle whoever for the long-man role.  I’m all for adding some guys via trade or waiver pick-up that can sit in AAA and serve as depth, but I don’t think it’s realistic to expect a lot of additions to the major league pen.

WRT the bolded, I have to admit that I'm confused. Who did they sign to "guaranteed contracted," that I'm suggesting go to Charlotte? 

Insofar as Crochet goes, its easier to start the "stretching out" process in MiLB than in the 26 man, when you're trying to compete. Whats more, with Crochet having appeared in MLB this year, you've already burned 1 option out of 3. 

2021 you burn a second, & 2022 will be his last option year. That doesn't leave a lot of margin for error in his development. What if he struggles while in Chicago in 2021? What if he gets injured? What if his secondary stuff isn't quite ready for prime time? What if he's tipping pitches, but we don't yet know it? What if the league figures him out, & crushes his confidence?

From my view, it would be better for his development to start him in MiLB in 21 to start stretching him out. He can clearly pitch out of the BP now, but he could eventually provide more value as a starter.

Whats more, this org has shat themselves in terms of SP development; Rodon with his injuries, but ALSO his inability to locate his FB & come up with a reliable 3rd pitch was a failure. Lopez's strike-throwing allergy, and taking away his curve looks like a failure. Cease's walking the yard looks like a failure in the making.  And all 3 did so/are doing so while burning through their option years.

Why not take a more sober view towards developing Crochet? Why must they shit themselves with SP development over and over and over again? We've seen that movie several times before, & I think we should be sick of the sequels.

Its for this reason that I'd rather sign the additional BP arm, & try to use 2021 to maximize Crochet's potential value. If whomever you sign takes a Herrera on the roster, you can always DFA whomever you sign, & then bring up Crochet after a few weeks/months of stretching out. If whomever you sign takes a giant Cease on the team, well then, Crochet will be on a quick flight from Charlotte or Birmingham. 

Edited October 24, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[southsider2k5]

13 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

WRT the bolded, I have to admit that I'm confused. Who did they sign to "guaranteed contracted," that I'm suggesting go to Charlotte? 

Insofar as Crochet goes, its easier to start the "stretching out" process in MiLB than in the 26 man, when you're trying to compete. Whats more, with Crochet having appeared in MLB this year, you've already burned 1 option out of 3. 

2021 you burn a second, & 2022 will be his last option year. That doesn't leave a lot of margin for error in his development. What if he struggles while in Chicago in 2021? What if he gets injured? What if his secondary stuff isn't quite ready for prime time? What if he's tipping pitches, but we don't yet know it? What if the league figures him out, & crushes his confidence?

From my view, it would be better for his development to start him in MiLB in 21 to start stretching him out. He can clearly pitch out of the BP now, but he could eventually provide more value as a starter.

Whats more, this org has shat themselves in terms of SP development; Rodon with his injuries, but ALSO his inability to locate his FB & come up with a reliable 3rd pitch was a failure. Lopez's strike-throwing allergy, and taking away his curve looks like a failure. Cease's walking the yard looks like a failure in the making.  And all 3 did so/are doing so while burning through their option years.

Why not take a more sober view towards developing Crochet? Why must they shit themselves with SP development over and over and over again? We've seen that movie several times before, & I think we should be sick of the sequels.

Its for this reason that I'd rather sign the additional BP arm, & try to use 2021 to maximize Crochet's potential value. If whomever you sign takes a Herrera on the roster, you can always DFA whomever you sign, & then bring up Crochet after a few weeks/months of stretching out. If whomever you sign takes a giant Cease on the team, well then, Crochet will be on a quick flight from Charlotte or Birmingham. 

Crochet wasn't optioned this year.

[southsider2k5]

 

[Chicago White Sox]

38 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

WRT the bolded, I have to admit that I'm confused. Who did they sign to "guaranteed contracted," that I'm suggesting go to Charlotte? 

Insofar as Crochet goes, its easier to start the "stretching out" process in MiLB than in the 26 man, when you're trying to compete. Whats more, with Crochet having appeared in MLB this year, you've already burned 1 option out of 3. 

2021 you burn a second, & 2022 will be his last option year. That doesn't leave a lot of margin for error in his development. What if he struggles while in Chicago in 2021? What if he gets injured? What if his secondary stuff isn't quite ready for prime time? What if he's tipping pitches, but we don't yet know it? What if the league figures him out, & crushes his confidence?

From my view, it would be better for his development to start him in MiLB in 21 to start stretching him out. He can clearly pitch out of the BP now, but he could eventually provide more value as a starter.

Whats more, this org has shat themselves in terms of SP development; Rodon with his injuries, but ALSO his inability to locate his FB & come up with a reliable 3rd pitch was a failure. Lopez's strike-throwing allergy, and taking away his curve looks like a failure. Cease's walking the yard looks like a failure in the making.  And all 3 did so/are doing so while burning through their option years.

Why not take a more sober view towards developing Crochet? Why must they shit themselves with SP development over and over and over again? We've seen that movie several times before, & I think we should be sick of the sequels.

Its for this reason that I'd rather sign the additional BP arm, & try to use 2021 to maximize Crochet's potential value. If whomever you sign takes a Herrera on the roster, you can always DFA whomever you sign, & then bring up Crochet after a few weeks/months of stretching out. If whomever you sign takes a giant Cease on the team, well then, Crochet will be on a quick flight from Charlotte or Birmingham. 

Options are only burned when sent to the minors while on the 40 man, so we haven’t burnt any of Crochet’s options yet and wouldn’t burn one next year under the hypothetical situation.  And let me be clear, I’m suggesting that I would or wouldn’t use Crochet as a reliever, just saying I think that’s ultimately what Hahn does based entirely on his comments so far.  I do want him as a starter long term, but can see why they may be concerned with ramping up his innings too quickly, but candidly I’m no expert in this area.

As for our starting pitching depth, I think Hahn ultimately adds two starters and goes with Dane in the 5th spot.  That means Kopech, Cease, & Stiever all start the season at Charlotte (which is I think is the right approach for Dylan who has so much untapped potential but needs to figure out how to throw strikes and get more movement on his fastball).  From my perspective, that’s plenty of rotation depth that it would allow you to leverage Crochet in the bullpen for a year.  But ultimately I want to do what’s best for Garrett’s development as a starter more than anything.

Regarding the guaranteed contracts piece, I was assuming you meant free agents.  If you meant depth pieces that don’t require 25 man spots then I’m in full agreement.  We can always use a few wild card arms in Charlotte that can help out in the event of injuries.

[ChiSox1917]

16 hours ago, pcq said:

I don't think signing Bauer is realistic though they have been bidding in recent years. Do they have the operating capital right now. I don't see the ballparks opening until mid season with a lot of empty seats.

why?  Theres already 11k fans at the world series games.  There is no justifiable reason not to let fans in the stands next year other than hysteria.  Anything less than half capacity at the start of the year is stupid, and they really should just allow full capacity from the onset.  

12 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

After JR whined like an overpriviledged b**** about losing money during the pandemic, I think it's a guarantee that they wont sign Bauer. 

At the same time, even as good as Bauer is, I don't think its prudent to blow all of your payroll flexibility on one guy. That is, when this rotation needs TWO FA SPs, IMO. And a closer, and a RFer, and another BP arm or two.

Im starting to come around to this.  It cease and lopez could be counted on at all then bauer would be the guy they should target.  Not sure if i like stroman/Q though.  I think if klubers club option is declined they need to go after him. If not, then i think id prefer stroman/gausman as the #3&4 next year.  

Edited October 25, 2020 by ChiSox1917

[soxfan49]

Convince you?

Uh, he's not Reynaldo Lopez or Dylab Cease