Trevor Bauer Thread (Mazara Free Zone)

[Vulture]

I don't see how 11 starts puts Bauer into Strasbourg's range. 17.5 career war vs 33.5 is not even close. Those were an incredible 11 starts but no way he'd keep that up over 30+ starts. Is a team going to put 35 million a year over multiple years to risk getting 2019 production out of him based on 11 starts. You could pay quintana 12 million for the same or better production as Bauer's 2019 numbers. His career numbers are actually lesser than quintana's. Obviously on different trajectories, but if quintana suddenly had a 11 start stretch would that put him at 35 million a year. Their 2019 numbers were actually pretty comparable, except quintana had better HR,BB rates and FIP.

Compare these numbers:

Quintana through age 29: 24.3 WAR, 1314 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.63 FIP

Bauer: 17.5 WAR, 1190 IP, 3.90 ERA, 3.85 FIP

You're probably saying Quintana was never as dominate as Bauer in '20. Maybe not quite, but compare Q's first eleven starts of 2016 to Bauer's '20:

Q: 72 IP, 2.13 ERA, 2.32 FIP, 0.25 HR/9

B: 73 IP, 1.73 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 1.1 HR/9

But what about Bauer's strike out rate? I'd argue giving up less than 1/4 home runs is more valuable than 25% more strikeouts. At any rate, if after 2016, Q declared free agency, would that make Quintana worth a top five salary in the game? He would have already accumalted 20.3 career war, nearly three more than Bauer's entire career at this point, and opened a season with an 11 game stretch nearly as dominant as Bauer's. Would anybody have advocated making him a top five paid player in the game? I don't think so. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to add Bauer, but putting him at Strasburg's level because of eleven dominant starts is ridiculous. Add his last 20 starts prior to those and his ERA is closer to 4.

Edited October 26, 2020 by Vulture

[YourWhatHurts]

21 minutes ago, Vulture said:

I don't see how 11 starts puts Bauer into Strasbourg's range. 17.5 career war vs 33.5 is not even close. Those were an incredible 11 starts but no way he'd keep that up over 30+ starts. Is a team going to put 35 million a year over multiple years to risk getting 2019 production out of him based on 11 starts. You could pay quintana 12 million for the same or better production as Bauer's 2019 numbers. His career numbers are actually lesser than quintana's. Obviously on different trajectories, but if quintana suddenly had a 11 start stretch would that put him at 35 million a year. Their 2019 numbers were actually pretty comparable, except quintana had better HR,BB rates and FIP.

Compare these numbers:

Quintana through age 29: 24.3 WAR, 1314 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.63 FIP

Bauer: 17.5 WAR, 1190 IP, 3.90 ERA, 3.85 FIP

You're probably saying Quintana was never as dominate as Bauer in '20. Maybe not quite, but compare Q's first eleven starts of 2016 to Bauer's '20:

Q: 72 IP, 2.13 ERA, 2.32 FIP, 0.25 HR/9

B: 73 IP, 1.73 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 1.1 HR/9

But what about Bauer's strike out rate? I'd argue giving up less than 1/4 home runs is more valuable than 25% more strikeouts. At any rate, if after 2016, Q declared free agency, would that make Quintana worth a top five salary in the game? He would have already accumalted 20.3 career war, nearly three more than Bauer's entire career at this point, and opened a season with an 11 game stretch nearly as dominant as Bauer's. Would anybody have advocated making him a top five paid player in the game? I don't think so. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to add Bauer, but putting him at Strasburg's level because of eleven dominant starts is ridiculous. Add his last 20 starts prior to those and his ERA is closer to 4.

Great post.

This reminds me of all the nuthuggery around Darvish as of late.  1 year ago he was a shit contract that the Cubs would have given away in a waiver claim.  Remember the bullshit statement about how he didn't want to opt out of his Cubs deal because he was finally "comfortable?"  No, he didn't opt out because no one would give him anything like that on the FA market after his recent seasons.  Then even this time about 6 or 7 months ago -- remember the Sox teeing off on him in ST? -- he was a guy who was coming off a quality 2nd half of the season that had more of the feel of a reclamation project than a top-end starter.  But I've seen mentions on here that the Cubs wouldn't give him up for Cease, etc., and more, like he's really that great.  It's been one season in a row with him.

Likewise, Bauer has had his ups and downs.  Sure he pitched like an ace for the brief 60 games season this year.  He also pitched like shit in Cincy the year before.  I think he's a great target and the best FA guy out there but let's seriously pump the breaks when it comes to comparing him to the guys who have been at the top of the league for several or many years.  He's not that guy and he hasn't been that guy.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, Vulture said:

I don't see how 11 starts puts Bauer into Strasbourg's range. 17.5 career war vs 33.5 is not even close. Those were an incredible 11 starts but no way he'd keep that up over 30+ starts. Is a team going to put 35 million a year over multiple years to risk getting 2019 production out of him based on 11 starts. You could pay quintana 12 million for the same or better production as Bauer's 2019 numbers. His career numbers are actually lesser than quintana's. Obviously on different trajectories, but if quintana suddenly had a 11 start stretch would that put him at 35 million a year. Their 2019 numbers were actually pretty comparable, except quintana had better HR,BB rates and FIP.

Compare these numbers:

Quintana through age 29: 24.3 WAR, 1314 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.63 FIP

Bauer: 17.5 WAR, 1190 IP, 3.90 ERA, 3.85 FIP

You're probably saying Quintana was never as dominate as Bauer in '20. Maybe not quite, but compare Q's first eleven starts of 2016 to Bauer's '20:

Q: 72 IP, 2.13 ERA, 2.32 FIP, 0.25 HR/9

B: 73 IP, 1.73 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 1.1 HR/9

But what about Bauer's strike out rate? I'd argue giving up less than 1/4 home runs is more valuable than 25% more strikeouts. At any rate, if after 2016, Q declared free agency, would that make Quintana worth a top five salary in the game? He would have already accumalted 20.3 career war, nearly three more than Bauer's entire career at this point, and opened a season with an 11 game stretch nearly as dominant as Bauer's. Would anybody have advocated making him a top five paid player in the game? I don't think so. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to add Bauer, but putting him at Strasburg's level because of eleven dominant starts is ridiculous. Add his last 20 starts prior to those and his ERA is closer to 4.

You should be paying free agents for what they are projected to do, not what they’ve done in the past.  Obviously past results can be an indicator of future performance, but you can’t just fall back on career WAR and assume that’s who a guy is.  Bauer is a student of the game and is constantly trying to make himself better.  Over the last three years he is 6th overall in fWAR amongst starting pitchers despite a fairly ordinary 2019.  Is he on Cole, deGrom, or Scherzer’s level?  Probably not, but this year he was better than two of them and nearly as good as DeGrom.  Without question Bauer is a #1 caliber starter and one who is capable of being amongst the best in the game when things are clicking.  Given both his talent and durability I think he deserves a contract close to what Strasburg got last offseason.  I think his personality and the pandemic will likely prevent that from happening, but the dude deserves to get paid this offseason and will likely clear $200M.

[Balta1701]

18 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You should be paying free agents for what they are projected to do, not what they’ve done in the past.  Obviously past results can be an indicator of future performance, but you can’t just fall back on career WAR and assume that’s who a guy is.  Bauer is a student of the game and is constantly trying to make himself better.  Over the last three years he is 6th overall in fWAR amongst starting pitchers despite a fairly ordinary 2019.  Is he on Cole, deGrom, or Scherzer’s level?  Probably not, but this year he was better than two of them and nearly as good as DeGrom.  Without question Bauer is a #1 caliber starter and one who is capable of being amongst the best in the game when things are clicking.  Given both his talent and durability I think he deserves a contract close to what Strasburg got last offseason.  I think his personality and the pandemic will likely prevent that from happening, but the dude deserves to get paid this offseason and will likely clear $200M.

Also extremely relevant to the question of "What will they do during a 7 year contract" is that Bauer is 1.5 years younger than Strasburg was at this point last year. The older the guy is at the end of the contract, the higher the risk per dollar. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

52 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You should be paying free agents for what they are projected to do, not what they’ve done in the past.  Obviously past results can be an indicator of future performance, but you can’t just fall back on career WAR and assume that’s who a guy is.  Bauer is a student of the game and is constantly trying to make himself better.  Over the last three years he is 6th overall in fWAR amongst starting pitchers despite a fairly ordinary 2019.  Is he on Cole, deGrom, or Scherzer’s level?  Probably not, but this year he was better than two of them and nearly as good as DeGrom.  Without question Bauer is a #1 caliber starter and one who is capable of being amongst the best in the game when things are clicking.  Given both his talent and durability I think he deserves a contract close to what Strasburg got last offseason.  I think his personality and the pandemic will likely prevent that from happening, but the dude deserves to get paid this offseason and will likely clear $200M.

My number 1 rule of thumb is never ever sign and pay a guy for a career year in his contract year. Given that this was only 60 games, even more so. When I am evaluating bauer I personally wouldn't even count this past season.

People putting Bauer in elite company are absolutely crazy imo.

This whole student of the game stuff is such nonsense too. Most any youngish pitcher is just like bauer with tech and analytics. He's just vocal about it. 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Chicago White Sox]

11 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

My number 1 rule of thumb is never ever sign and pay a guy for a career year in his contract year. Given that this was only 60 games, even more so. When I am evaluating bauer I personally wouldn't even count this past season.

People putting Bauer in elite company are absolutely crazy imo.

This whole student of the game stuff is such nonsense too. Most any youngish pitcher is just like bauer with tech and analytics. He's just vocal about it. 

Bauer put up a 5.8 win season in 2018.  Why does that season not count?

[Chicago White Sox]

19 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

My number 1 rule of thumb is never ever sign and pay a guy for a career year in his contract year. Given that this was only 60 games, even more so. When I am evaluating bauer I personally wouldn't even count this past season.

People putting Bauer in elite company are absolutely crazy imo.

This whole student of the game stuff is such nonsense too. Most any youngish pitcher is just like bauer with tech and analytics. He's just vocal about it. 

And why did Stone tweet this about him if “any youngish pitcher is just like Bauer”?  I can totally respect not wanting to overpay him if you think he overachieved this year, but discrediting his drive & willingness to learn is complete bullshit and makes me think you just don’t like the dude.

 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Chicago White Sox

[southsider2k5]

One thing Bauer does better than anyone else is tell the rest of the world about how great he is. 

[The Hawk]

I'd say that a starting rotation of Giolitto, Bauer, Keuchel, StarterX, and one of the young guys  is a World Series caliber team starting staff.  This is not the time for this team to think small regarding starting pitching. Its either Bauer or trading for another pitcher of his caliber or two guys of slightly lesser yet good credentials. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

7 hours ago, Leonard Zelig said:

LOL, defensive much?  I simply asked what they offered.

Nah, just tired of reading the same thing every offseason about every top FA year after year after year after year.

Remember, "Harpchado?" Yeah, neither of those guys signed here, and Bauer ain't signing here, either.

[The Hawk]

20 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Nah, just tired of reading the same thing every offseason about every top FA year after year after year after year.

Remember, "Harpchado?" Yeah, neither of those guys signed here, and Bauer ain't signing here, either.

I think that they are going to have a shot because they can afford him, they have an unbelievable offense in front of him, and that they have quality arms around him both in the SP and the pen, particularly if they resign Colome.

Edited October 27, 2020 by The Hawk

[Vulture]

2 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Nah, just tired of reading the same thing every offseason about every top FA year after year after year after year.

Remember, "Harpchado?" Yeah, neither of those guys signed here, and Bauer ain't signing here, either.

Bauer's value has been closer to Grandal or Keuchel than Machado or Harper, or Strasburg, or Cole or Grienke or Kershaw, or any of these top ten contract players, though. If he can get 35 mil a year, more power to him, but I think he's closer to the range of wheeler's value. 

[Jose Abreu]

3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This whole student of the game stuff is such nonsense too. Most any youngish pitcher is just like bauer with tech and analytics. He's just vocal about it. 

Yup. Stroman is extremely into analytics and biomechanics himself, but it hardly gets mentioned

[ron883]

14 hours ago, SouthWallace said:

Maybe because Giolio was already referred to as Gio on Soxtalk long before the Sox signed Gio Gonzalez?  Gio Gonzalez had never pitched for the White Sox before 2020, why would we reserve a nickname for a player that had not been in the org for ages?

Does this mean HoT FiRe is back on the market?

[bmags]

7 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

My number 1 rule of thumb is never ever sign and pay a guy for a career year in his contract year. Given that this was only 60 games, even more so. When I am evaluating bauer I personally wouldn't even count this past season.

People putting Bauer in elite company are absolutely crazy imo.

This whole student of the game stuff is such nonsense too. Most any youngish pitcher is just like bauer with tech and analytics. He's just vocal about it. 

Come on man, give the man his due. Bauer found edgertronic cameras which were used for biology at the time. Driveline would be nothing without him. Simple stuff now like long toss was pretty controversial before him.

Who knows if Giolito would have been as free to experiment in remaking his entire motion without what bauer's tinkering had proven.

And also his 2018 was also very good.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

Yup. Stroman is extremely into analytics and biomechanics himself, but it hardly gets mentioned

Sure, but does that mean every young pitcher in the game is into analytics & biomechanics as much Bauer like Let Ray Ray just claimed?

[southsider2k5]

8 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Nah, just tired of reading the same thing every offseason about every top FA year after year after year after year.

Remember, "Harpchado?" Yeah, neither of those guys signed here, and Bauer ain't signing here, either.

You probably want to log out and sign back in again in six months since you already know what happens.

[Two-Gun Pete]

7 hours ago, Vulture said:

Bauer's value has been closer to Grandal or Keuchel than Machado or Harper, or Strasburg, or Cole or Grienke or Kershaw, or any of these top ten contract players, though. If he can get 35 mil a year, more power to him, but I think he's closer to the range of wheeler's value. 

Who's higher/comparable to him among SPs THIS offseason? Often, what a player can achieve in FA comes down to timing, and the fact that he may be "THE BEST FA" in a given offseason.

Also, Wheeler got 5/$118MM. IMO, if Bauer signs that, this club will be limited in what else they can do this offseason. 

For Bauer, he's 30 years old. This will likely be his one chance to cash in. For him to sign another 1 year deal is him risking his one chance to do so.

Neither he, nor his agent (Boras) will give any discounts. So, he's going to want 5 or more years; any multiyear offer thats fewer than that is likely a non-starter. Given his age and where he is in his career, he shouldn't sign a shorter deal, if he wants to maximize what he can get in FA.

 

And again, this org has yet to sign a $100MM+ offer to a FA, pitcher or not. And equally important, this org doesn't like to sign long term contracts to pitchers.

 

For all of these reasons (and others), Bauer ain't signing here. Yes, the SOX "could," sign him. Maybe the SOX "should" sign him. And sure, for many posters, if they were JR, they "would" sign him. But it ain't gonna happen.

[bmags]

16 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Who's higher/comparable to him among SPs THIS offseason? Often, what a player can achieve in FA comes down to timing, and the fact that he may be "THE BEST FA" in a given offseason.

Also, Wheeler got 5/$118MM. IMO, if Bauer signs that, this club will be limited in what else they can do this offseason. 

For Bauer, he's 30 years old. This will likely be his one chance to cash in. For him to sign another 1 year deal is him risking his one chance to do so.

Neither he, nor his agent (Boras) will give any discounts. So, he's going to want 5 or more years; any multiyear offer thats fewer than that is likely a non-starter. Given his age and where he is in his career, he shouldn't sign a shorter deal, if he wants to maximize what he can get in FA.

 

And again, this org has yet to sign a $100MM+ offer to a FA, pitcher or not. And equally important, this org doesn't like to sign long term contracts to pitchers.

 

For all of these reasons (and others), Bauer ain't signing here. Yes, the SOX "could," sign him. Maybe the SOX "should" sign him. And sure, for many posters, if they were JR, they "would" sign him. But it ain't gonna happen.

Boras is not his agent, he is repped by Rachel Luba.

[southsider2k5]

18 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Who's higher/comparable to him among SPs THIS offseason? Often, what a player can achieve in FA comes down to timing, and the fact that he may be "THE BEST FA" in a given offseason.

Also, Wheeler got 5/$118MM. IMO, if Bauer signs that, this club will be limited in what else they can do this offseason. 

For Bauer, he's 30 years old. This will likely be his one chance to cash in. For him to sign another 1 year deal is him risking his one chance to do so.

Neither he, nor his agent (Boras) will give any discounts. So, he's going to want 5 or more years; any multiyear offer thats fewer than that is likely a non-starter. Given his age and where he is in his career, he shouldn't sign a shorter deal, if he wants to maximize what he can get in FA.

 

And again, this org has yet to sign a $100MM+ offer to a FA, pitcher or not. And equally important, this org doesn't like to sign long term contracts to pitchers.

 

For all of these reasons (and others), Bauer ain't signing here. Yes, the SOX "could," sign him. Maybe the SOX "should" sign him. And sure, for many posters, if they were JR, they "would" sign him. But it ain't gonna happen.

This is also likely to be the worst free agent market in history, so waiting out another year or two may well be a very good idea.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

10 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Bauer put up a 5.8 win season in 2018.  Why does that season not count?

Never said 2018 doesn't count; I said I wouldn't put much stock in his performance this season. 

1. He cheated and openly admitted it (maybe he'll keep cheating going forward because it's not enforced but if not, that needs to be taken into account)
2. Ignoring this past year, Bauer has under 3.3 fWAR in 3 of 4 seasons; if you go by bWAR (which I prefer for evaluating actual results), he has only eclipsed 3 WAR once in his entire career. 

To put a pitcher with the above stats into elite company is crazy imo.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is also likely to be the worst free agent market in history, so waiting out another year or two may well be a very good idea.

Another year = potential lockout. 2 years = free agency at age 32. Big risks.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

Come on man, give the man his due. Bauer found edgertronic cameras which were used for biology at the time. Driveline would be nothing without him. Simple stuff now like long toss was pretty controversial before him.

Who knows if Giolito would have been as free to experiment in remaking his entire motion without what bauer's tinkering had proven.

And also his 2018 was also very good.

Pitchers have been playing long toss for 20+ years; long toss was thrown everyday by pitchers when I was in college in 2005. There were certainly skeptics in the game, but it was common training programs used by pitching coaches across the country.

I'll give you edgertronic and bringing that tool into baseball but the impact of that tool is whatever... 

Giolito tinkered because he was awful and knew he had to change or lose his career. Man you guys really reach on the impact of Bauer. Pitchers have been using data and tech for quite sometime. Pitchers have been changing deliveries and etc forever. 

2018 was great, but every other year counts. To just pretend like he hasn't been an average SP every other year is just dishonest. He certainly isn't elite.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Pitchers have been playing long toss for 20+ years; long toss was thrown everyday by pitchers when I was in college in 2005. There were certainly skeptics in the game, but it was common training programs used by pitching coaches across the country.

I'll give you edgertronic and bringing that tool into baseball but the impact of that tool is whatever... 

Giolito tinkered because he was awful and knew he had to change or lose his career. Man you guys really reach on the impact of Bauer. Pitchers have been using data and tech for quite sometime. Pitchers have been changing deliveries and etc. 

Nolan Ryan was big on long toss.

[bmags]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Pitchers have been playing long toss for 20+ years; long toss was thrown everyday by pitchers when I was in college in 2005. There were certainly skeptics in the game, but it was common training programs used by pitching coaches across the country.

I'll give you edgertronic and bringing that tool into baseball but the impact of that tool is whatever... 

Giolito tinkered because he was awful and knew he had to change or lose his career. Man you guys really reach on the impact of Bauer. Pitchers have been using data and tech for quite sometime. Pitchers have been changing deliveries and etc. 

Pitchers have indeed used the tools that were provided to them. That is not what Bauer did. Yes, when you try to take a view from nowhere view that Giolito "changed his delivery", indeed pitchers have done that. But Giolito did that dramatically over the course of one offseason was the big change, and the use of the core velocity belt is now much more widespread. Bauer helped decentralize the pitching knowledge and gave more power to the players to tinker. You are being obtuse about his impact on the last half-decade.