Trevor Bauer Thread (Mazara Free Zone)

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Say Bauer gives ~5 WAR and with an in house RF you get ~1 WAR... so you’re at 6 WAR.

Does something like Stroman and Peterson get you to ~6 WAR?

I’m also in the “get Bauer at all costs” camp. Could totally live with anything in house in right and just wait for us to develop a cost controlled fixture for that spot in the future.

I don’t believe we have a 1 WAR OF in house. Try a -0.5 WAR OF and you’ve got guys like what we have right now.

[bmags]

It's kind of nice knowing bauer is just going for biggest payday. I actually wasn't quite sure what he'd prioritize, but clearly he sees the payday as validation for all of the work he's done.

I used to think cincy had a shot just due to comfort putting Boddy there. But it will be a weird offseason so we'll see what sox can put together.

[bmags]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

I don’t believe we have a 1 WAR OF in house. Try a -0.5 WAR OF and you’ve got guys like what we have right now.

I would put $100 down that leury/Engel could get you 1 WAR.

[wegner]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I’d argue the exact opposite. If you have a great weakness in your lineup, that weakness will always find a way to cost you games, particularly on defense. Remember that if we ant a title, teams like the Dodgers are standing in the way - how do those lineups and rotations stack up? At least give me a guy who can field out there, if he can’t hit well I can live with catching the ball. 

I don't disagree with you there.  I was actually joking about Palka but would be fine with Engel out there due to his defense.  If I have to choose between a top of the rotation starter or a top RF, I really think this team needs more starting pitching so the choice is not close to me.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

I would put $100 down that leury/Engel could get you 1 WAR.

Engel is a fair reply, do we still have him this year though? He's arb-1 right?

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Engel is a fair reply, do we still have him this year though? He's arb-1 right?

I'm saying combining the production between them it would > WAR but we have Engel on Arb-1 and leury on a 3.5/mill club option

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, bmags said:

I would put $100 down that leury/Engel could get you 1 WAR.

I am in this camp.  Leury will give you league average production and a plus glove.  Engel will give you a gold glove and a crappy bat.  That is enough to be a plus contribution.

[35thstreetswarm]

57 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Question:

If you could have Bauer sign with the Sox but that meant having to live with Blake Rutherford in right field... would you do it?

Consider that all reports out of Schaumburg were that Blake has turned a corner and was showing a lot of his power potential realized.

Also consider that Bauer makes our 1 - 3 SP amazing and really sets us up well in filling the 4/5 spots.

Final consideration would be spreading out resources for another lower tier starting pitcher and signing a more impactful MLB proven right fielder.

What do you think?

Of course.  (Or substitute Engel).  Our lineup is loaded with or without a big-ticket RF addition.  Yes it would be nice to have a potential All-Star at every position, but it's a luxury, not a necessity.  

[hi8is]

Seems like we’re all on the same page then. Bauer of bust.

Hell, let him pick the pitching coach as a part of your “pitch” to him. ?

He also grew up in my home town so that’d be fun.

[wegner]

Just now, hi8is said:

Seems like we’re all on the same page then. Bauer of bust.

Hell, let him pick the pitching coach as a part of your “pitch” to him. ?

He also grew up in my home town so that’d be fun.

I'd let him be the pitching coach after watching his video breakdown of Giolito's no-no 

[hi8is]

1 minute ago, wegner said:

I'd let him be the pitching coach after watching his video breakdown of Giolito's no-no 

Yea, he should be afforded that choice if it’s truly his pick... and knowing of him, wouldn’t be surprised if he went that route and gave the “position” of pitching coach to a doctor from an Ivy League school. ?

[beautox]

To quote the words of Official White Sox Sponsor Beggar's Pizza he is "laying it on thick".

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I’d argue the exact opposite. If you have a great weakness in your lineup, that weakness will always find a way to cost you games, particularly on defense. Remember that if we ant a title, teams like the Dodgers are standing in the way - how do those lineups and rotations stack up? At least give me a guy who can field out there, if he can’t hit well I can live with catching the ball. 

But in the playoffs - an extra TOR guy is better than filling your worst position. If they are a defensive blackhole that is a seperate issue, but Engel can cover that even if he can't hit.  Just find him a platoon partner and spend on the TOR guy if you can.  With this team - I'd spend all my money on pitching.  

[bmags]

58 minutes ago, beautox said:

To quote the words of Official White Sox Sponsor Beggar's Pizza he is "laying it on thick".

If anyone really wants to appreciate bauer I highly recommend lindbergh & sawcheck's the mvp machine.

[wegner]

16 minutes ago, bmags said:

If anyone really wants to appreciate bauer I highly recommend lindbergh & sawcheck's the mvp machine.

Just ordered from the library...thanks for the suggestion bmags.

[chitownsportsfan]

15 minutes ago, bmags said:

If anyone really wants to appreciate bauer I highly recommend lindbergh & sawcheck's the mvp machine.

Indeed.  Still haven't finished the book but got through most of the Bauer stuff.  He's a guy that will always have a chip on his shoulder and is internally motivated.  He's not a guy that will stop working once he gets the big deal. I think his general IQ is overblown (he's a genius in a very narrow field) but that's what you want in a big signing: a hard worker that is smart enough to know how to keep improving or stay at the same level as he ages.

[hi8is]

16 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I think his general IQ is overblown

He had a 4.8 GPA in high school and did so many class units he graduated early as a Junior.

[Two-Gun Pete]

4 hours ago, hi8is said:

Say Bauer gives ~5 WAR and with an in house RF you get ~1 WAR... so you’re at 6 WAR.

Does something like Stroman and Peterson get you to ~6 WAR?

I’m also in the “get Bauer at all costs” camp. Could totally live with anything in house in right and just wait for us to develop a cost controlled fixture for that spot in the future.

I think this is a fair question to pose. Given that Keuchel is on an average $18.5MM contract @ age 32, what would Bauer get at age 29? I'd guess $25MM/5 years; he's on a 1/$17.5MM deal now.

So, with Bauer, I agree that 5 fWAR isn't out of the question. But then, you'd also have to absorb perhaps a -0.5fWAR from Cease, and -0.7fWAR from either Dunning or Lopez, and then potentially overexpose Engel to the tune of another +0.0 fWAR. Also, the bullpen would be gassed by July, while Cease & Lopez or Dunning walk the yard 2 days out of every 5th day.

This would get the SOX to 5-0.7-0.5+0.0= +3.7 fWAR added, because you'd have to depend on unproven commodities for the #4/5 SPs, and hope that Engel won't revert to what his ZIPS projection say he will be.

 

Couldn't Stroman get you to ~3.0fWAR for $12MM, & Q get you ~2.0fWAR for I dunno, $8MM, & then get ~1.5 fWAR out of Puig for $5MM or so? Sure, youd have to absorb -0.5 fWAR out of the 5th starter, but thats only 1 day out of 5. So, you'd be looking at a total of 3+2+1.5-0.5 = 6.0 fWAR, all in.

I'll admit, this wouldn't be without risk, as you'd still have an unproven #5 SP, & you'd have to hope that Puig can be what his projections say that he is now. But, you'd still have more SP depth, and OF depth to hedge your bets.

 

Because of the likely salary constraints, I think I still prefer Stroman & Q as a 2 SP solution, rather than just Bauer. I think there'd be too much negative WAR risk with the other players if you blow all the salary flexibility wad on Bauer. 

Edited October 22, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete
Edited to accurately reflect Engel's ZIPs.

[hi8is]

6 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I think this is a fair question to pose. Given that Keuchel is on an average $18.5MM contract @ age 32, what would Bauer get at age 29? I'd guess $25MM/5 years; he's on a 1/$17.5MM deal now.

So, with Bauer, I agree that 5 fWAR isn't out of the question. But then, you'd also have to absorb perhaps a -0.5fWAR from Cease, and -0.7fWAR from either Dunning or Lopez, and then potentially overexpose Engel to the tune of another -0.5fWAR. Also, the bullpen would be gassed by July, while Cease & Lopez or Dunning walk the yard 2 days out of every 5th day.

This would get the SOX to 5-0.7-0.5-0.5= +3.2fWAR added, because you'd have to depend on unproven commodities for the #4/5 SPs, and hope that Engel won't revert to his usual negative WAR status he'd been in the past.

 

Couldn't Stroman get you to ~3.0fWAR for $12MM, & Q get you ~2.0fWAR for I dunno, $8MM, & then get ~1.5 fWAR out of Puig for $5MM or so? Sure, youd have to absorb -0?5 fWAR out of the 5th starter, but thats only 1 day out of 5. So, you'd be looking at a total of 3+2+1.5-0.5 = 6.0 fWAR, all in.

I'll admit, this wouldn't be without risk, as you'd still have an unproven #5 SP, & you'd have to hope that Puig can be what his projections say that he is now. But, you'd still have more SP depth, and OF depth to hedge your bets.

 

Because of the likely salary constraints, I think I still prefer Stroman & Q as a 2 SP solution, rather than just Bauer. I think there'd be too much negative WAR risk with the other players if you blow all the salary flexibility wad on Bauer.

They’re going to be banking on internal improvements from the Cease / Dunning / Kopech / Lopez group...

Also expect them to either go the ace SP route ( via FA or a trade ) or to address two SP and a RF, like you suggested.

I’m just curious what everyone would rather have.

Myself, I’ve landed in the Bauer camp... which means it isn’t going to happen. ?

[Two-Gun Pete]

8 minutes ago, hi8is said:

They’re going to be banking on internal improvements from the Cease / Dunning / Kopech / Lopez group...

Also expect them to either go the ace SP route ( via FA or a trade ) or to address two SP and a RF, like you suggested.

I’m just curious what everyone would rather have.

Myself, I’ve landed in the Bauer camp... which means it isn’t going to happen. ?

I'll agree, it's a good thought exercise. And I agree that pitching is the most pressing need at the moment.

 

I think I'd rather go the FA route, but I'd rather go with 2 SPs from the middle market than just one top end SP, & hope that Cease/Lopez/Dunning don't walk the yard all year long. 

Also, we're all speculating what the FA market will be like, and what FAs will get. My guess is that the top end of the FAs will get their money, or at least close to what they would "ordinarily" get in a regular year. Im also guessing that mid-level FAs, and guys that sat out (such as Q, Stroman, & Puig) will have to accept smaller and/or shorter offers this winter than usual. 

It will be interesting to see.

Edited October 22, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[joejoesox]

if there was ever a period of time that Hahn was really gonna push Reinsdorf to spend money it would be these next 3 to 4 years

I don't think they wanna ruin a successful rebuild because they were penny pinching

 

[hi8is]

25 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

if there was ever a period of time that Hahn was really gonna push Reinsdorf to spend money it would be these next 3 to 4 years

I don't think they wanna ruin a successful rebuild because they were penny pinching

 

#TheMoneyWillBeSpent!!!!

[The Hawk]

20 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

if there was ever a period of time that Hahn was really gonna push Reinsdorf to spend money it would be these next 3 to 4 years

I don't think they wanna ruin a successful rebuild because they were penny pinching

 

I really don't think that they will have to spend a lot of money going forward in the next couple of years. They will not re-sign EE and probably not McCann along with a couple of others. But they do need to sign a top notch starting pitcher and not go cheap with it. A decent left handed starter would also be good at the back end of the rotation. They're set I think batting order wise with Vaughn joining the club. IF anything, barring injuries, their everyday line-up will be better than last years and that is an understatement really. If they hit on one of their young starting pitchers this team will be very special and the favorite going into next season to win the AL.

[poppysox]

5 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I’d argue the exact opposite. If you have a great weakness in your lineup, that weakness will always find a way to cost you games, particularly on defense. Remember that if we ant a title, teams like the Dodgers are standing in the way - how do those lineups and rotations stack up? At least give me a guy who can field out there, if he can’t hit well I can live with catching the ball. 

Engel!

[AJ'S Cousin]

Engel in Right until someone is available at the trade deadline if we have a normal season. Bauer would be great but unrealistic. Don't think Hahn williams can convince JR to spend the kind of money on a pitcher. It's not his MO.  If Bauer continues on his path of only signing 1 year deals it's going toke 25 million minimum. If Bauer goes for a multi year deal, 125 to 150 million. Sox will never spend it on pitcher these days. 

Stroman is an alternative stop gap and make a decent 4 or 5.  Kopech and Cease need to develop or the next pitching coach can get Lopez's head out of his ass. Which i doubt can happen. 

Crochet is a year away to developing into a starting pitcher. He'll probably end up the route that Sale took, that worked out pretty well  if we all remember. 

The guy we really could use is Jose Q. back, Innings eater but we didn't hit for him. Now we have offense to support any decent pitcher.