2020 Election Thoughts

[hogan873]

This could devolve into a bickering mess, but I would hope we could have some good discussions.

What do you think will happen next week?  Who will win the presidency?  Will it be close or a landslide?  Will there be court battles?  Do the Republicans maintain control of the Senate, or do the Democrats take over?

Thoughts on why you think what you predict.

I believe Biden will win, but it won't be a landslide despite some polls.  I think Florida and/or Pennsylvania go to Biden, and that will be the nail in the coffin.  If early voting is any indication, people are fed up and want change.

Indications are that the Democrats take the Senate, but there are a couple races that are too close to call.  I believe McConnell wins but Graham may lose.  The Senate seats in Maine and Arizona may very well flip.  Like with the presidential race, voters want change.

Voter turnout is key.  I think that the more people vote, the greater the chance of a blue wave.  Early voting certainly makes it seem like there will be more people heading to the polls this year, but who knows what election day itself holds.

[StrangeSox]

The only prediction I'm confident in is that turnout will blow 2016 out of the water. Early/mail voting in a number of places has already exceeded the total 2016 vote. We're at something like 67M votes already cast. Texas is already at 87% of their total 2016 vote.

[hogan873]

3 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

The only prediction I'm confident in is that turnout will blow 2016 out of the water. Early/mail voting in a number of places has already exceeded the total 2016 vote. We're at something like 67M votes already cast. Texas is already at 87% of their total 2016 vote.

That's amazing.  I know that COVID has a lot to do with it, but I still think turnout would have been high without it.

[Dick Allen]

The turnout will be great, and a lot of lawyers will get paid with the litigation that will follow. That is my prediction. 

[StrangeSox]

 

[hogan873]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

This is obviously a political thread and I'm sure it will turn nasty at some point....but because this is such a huge event we're going to keep it open and just monitor it. Keep it civil boys and girls. 

Thanks.  My hope was to get some real feedback on what folks think will happen because I really don't know.  So many variables.  If it gets nasty, however, I'll understand if it's 86'd.

[southsider2k5]

The interesting change to me is that all of the last minute "bombshell" type of stuff totally failed to this point.  It seems like most of the country learned from what happened the last time around.  It really also seems like pollsters have adjusted to what happened with the turnout late last time around.  It might be wishful thinking, but it is looking like the Democrats are going to have a big victory next week.  I think the GOP believes that too, hence their rush to get a Supreme Court justice done, but not anything for COVID relief.

[Quin]

My contribution to this thread will be that Kamala Harris made a stop in the Charlotte Knights locker room.

[Jose Abreu]

Texas and Georgia are lowkey inching towards Biden which would certainly be something.

 

I think Biden wins, but we won't know that for sure until maybe a week after election day itself. As I expect a higher proportion of in-person election day voters to be voting for Trump, I think the results on the night of will be either in favor of Trump or very close. That will change as the mail-in/early votes get counted, IMO. Of course, it would also lead to plenty of speculation and accusations...

[he gone.]

My prediction is everything sways back to other side of the pendulum. Generally we just switch of red/blue/red/blue or red/red/blue/blue/red/red/blue/blue. 

 

Never forward, just blaming the others. Human psychology is a weird, weird thing. 

[Kyyle23]

11 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

My prediction is everything sways back to other side of the pendulum. Generally we just switch of red/blue/red/blue or red/red/blue/blue/red/red/blue/blue. 

 

Never forward, just blaming the others. Human psychology is a weird, weird thing. 

Brian Anderson's prediction: these candidates have a 50/50 shot of winning

 

? 

[Dick Allen]

2 hours ago, Tony said:

I still think this thing is going to be close. All signs point to Biden having a strong command of things but I think we've grown so used to chaos.....I just can't let myself get to a point where I think Donald Trump is 100% going to lose. 

There is going to be chaos. A lot of people are talking about 2016 but the polls weren't so wrong back then. Clinton had more votes and it was within the margin of error.  And the chances of that happening twice, seem quite small to me. It's like when the Sox had Boston down 2-0 in the ALDS. Just because the year before the Sawks came back from down 3-0 vs. the Yankees, people were saying they had them right where they wanted them. Not really. Trump eked out some swing state wins. I read where the polling is better now, but the mail in vote count is the big question, and ultimately there may be games played with electors. But there is virtually no chance Biden doesn't win the popular vote, and if it is played straight, probably very little chance he isn't the one elected. But unless it is a total blowout, there are going to be a lot of games played.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Dick Allen

[pcq]

59 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Texas and Georgia are lowkey inching towards Biden which would certainly be something.

 

I think Biden wins, but we won't know that for sure until maybe a week after election day itself. As I expect a higher proportion of in-person election day voters to be voting for Trump, I think the results on the night of will be either in favor of Trump or very close. That will change as the mail-in/early votes get counted, IMO. Of course, it would also lead to plenty of speculation and accusations...

Kayleigh said we deserve to have a winner declared at the end of the election evening. Nov 4 and 5 could be very noisy before The Supremes pronounce Donald as President For Life.

[whitesoxfan99]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

The interesting change to me is that all of the last minute "bombshell" type of stuff totally failed to this point.  It seems like most of the country learned from what happened the last time around.  It really also seems like pollsters have adjusted to what happened with the turnout late last time around.  It might be wishful thinking, but it is looking like the Democrats are going to have a big victory next week.  I think the GOP believes that too, hence their rush to get a Supreme Court justice done, but not anything for COVID relief.

I think one of the big differences is that the bombshell stuff this time was basically bullshit and there are really no links to Joe Biden behaving badly.  On top of that, there are very few undecided voters this time around versus there were quite a few last go around (if you are undecided on the president this late in the game you really should just sit this one out).

[ron883]

I expect both candidates to peacefully accept the results of the election - if the election is determined in a fair manner.

[Marky Mark]

6 minutes ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

I expect both candidates to peacefully accept the results of the election - if the election is determined in a fair manner.

I am assuming that's sarcasm?  Or no?  I just hope that whoever wins, wins by a good enough margin that the other isn't yelling about recounts for the next month.

[pcq]

1 hour ago, whitesoxfan99 said:

I think one of the big differences is that the bombshell stuff this time was basically bullshit and there are really no links to Joe Biden behaving badly.  On top of that, there are very few undecided voters this time around versus there were quite a few last go around (if you are undecided on the president this late in the game you really should just sit this one out).

I am very concerned about Hunter Biden. I don't really have an issue with  Trump's family working in the White House because I am a family person too. 

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, pcq said:

I am very concerned about Hunter Biden. I don't really have an issue with  Trump's family working in the White House because I am a family person too. 

Let's be honest here.  If you are worried about Hunter Biden and his foreign entanglements, there is no chance you can vote for the President then.

[The Beast]

What do you think will happen next week? We won’t know the results next week. The surge in mail ballots and the ensuing court battles will make this election a second coming of Bush v. Gore unless...turnout and votes clearly declare a winner.

Who will win the presidency?  Will it be close or a landslide?  Will there be court battles? 

My 2016 head and heart still leaves me skeptical that Trump will lose, but I think Biden has a good shot at winning if:

- The overall turnout is high.

- He peels off enough non-college educated voters from Trump in the right states.

- He gets significant Black and suburban turnout in the right states.

- He retakes the blue firewall and Arizona or takes part of the blue firewall and Arizona and North Carolina or wins Florida and loses some of, but not the majority of the blue fire wall.

- If the polls are somewhat true and come out in Biden’s favor.

Do the Republicans maintain control of the Senate, or do the Democrats take over?
 

Democrats win CO, AZ, NC, MI, MN, ME and the GOP win IA, AL, both seats in GA and TX. Democrats get a 51-49 majority in the best case scenario and the worst case they are tied 50-50 or down 51-49 if ME and NC go to the GOP.

[NWINFan]

1 hour ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

I expect both candidates to peacefully accept the results of the election - if the election is determined in a fair manner.

With mail-in votes, there has been little or no history of voter fraud or stolen elections. This is nothing but a smokescreen. I have always been more worried about voter suppression that happens in various ways. Regardless, I voted by absentee ballot, and I had a good reason for doing so. There was nothing unfair about it. 

[Harry Chappas]

I find both candidates to be sub par and as such with probably not even vote for president or I will vote for third party candidate as I need to vote against Kim Foxx.

I have voted for the winning President in every election I have voted in except 1992 which was the first year I voted.

I don't think either candidate is even decent and find it sad that neither party could come up with a true candidate that I could respect.   I felt the same in 2016 but went with Trump because I was kind of done with the Clinton regime.....that was a mistake....now I would love for Hillary to be the option.

 

 

[pcq]

5 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

Texas and Georgia are lowkey inching towards Biden which would certainly be something.

 

I think Biden wins, but we won't know that for sure until maybe a week after election day itself. As I expect a higher proportion of in-person election day voters to be voting for Trump, I think the results on the night of will be either in favor of Trump or very close. That will change as the mail-in/early votes get counted, IMO. Of course, it would also lead to plenty of speculation and accusations...

Georgia has 2M more voters since 2013. I understand some people are standing in long lines. Not sure who. Wow who has to burn all of those ballots? I have wondered how states could have compliance oversight. Greg Palast reports on voting issues. 

[pcq]

1 hour ago, Harry Chappas said:

I find both candidates to be sub par and as such with probably not even vote for president or I will vote for third party candidate as I need to vote against Kim Foxx.

I have voted for the winning President in every election I have voted in except 1992 which was the first year I voted.

I don't think either candidate is even decent and find it sad that neither party could come up with a true candidate that I could respect.   I felt the same in 2016 but went with Trump because I was kind of done with the Clinton regime.....that was a mistake....now I would love for Hillary to be the option.

 

 

I haven't steered wrong since Millard Fillmore ran for re-election. I'm sticking with the Whigs this time around. Should have clarified that Millard was never elected. Zach Taylor got some bad cherries and milk before dying. 

Edited October 27, 2020 by pcq

[ron883]

1 hour ago, Harry Chappas said:

I find both candidates to be sub par and as such with probably not even vote for president or I will vote for third party candidate as I need to vote against Kim Foxx.

I have voted for the winning President in every election I have voted in except 1992 which was the first year I voted.

I don't think either candidate is even decent and find it sad that neither party could come up with a true candidate that I could respect.   I felt the same in 2016 but went with Trump because I was kind of done with the Clinton regime.....that was a mistake....now I would love for Hillary to be the option.

 

 

Agreed on this part. What a complete disaster she has been. Unfortunately there is no chance of her losing. 

[The Beast]

3 hours ago, Harry Chappas said:

I find both candidates to be sub par and as such with probably not even vote for president or I will vote for third party candidate as I need to vote against Kim Foxx.

I have voted for the winning President in every election I have voted in except 1992 which was the first year I voted.

I don't think either candidate is even decent and find it sad that neither party could come up with a true candidate that I could respect.   I felt the same in 2016 but went with Trump because I was kind of done with the Clinton regime.....that was a mistake....now I would love for Hillary to be the option.

 

 

May I ask if any candidates this time around from the primaries appealed to you? Also, can I ask why Biden isn’t decent if Hillary is?