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2020 Election Thoughts


hogan873

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4 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Living in a decimated rust belt town, this is a real thing.  Towns have to figure out how to reconfigure themselves for a 21st century workforce, as well as how to retrain a 1970's workforce for jobs that exist today.

How have communities and businesses reacted? Whose role is it to retrain that 1970s workforce?

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37 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Biden going to win GA, PA, NV, and AZ. Trump already knows. There’s a reason he filed lawsuits in GA and PA already. He’s going to lose a close race in both.

I have been avoiding Trump & family as well as anything too partisan lately....what exactly is the basis of the lawsuit?  Meaning, what is their circular logic for it?

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Trump essentially has to pray for a furious comeback in Arizona, hold onto GA and try and hold the gap in PA. 

He loses any of those states, it's pretty much over. Only other possibility, he loses AZ, but wins NV, and it we receive...probably the most fitting outcome for 2020, a 269/269. 

 

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Just now, Dan of Steel said:

Trump essentially has to pray for a furious comeback in Arizona, hold onto GA and try and hold the gap in PA. 

He loses any of those states, it's pretty much over. Only other possibility, he loses AZ, but wins NV, and it we receive...probably the most fitting outcome for 2020, a 269/269. 

 

Biden is at 264 counting Arizona, so how does he get to 269? 

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2 minutes ago, chw42 said:

This new Arizona data gives Trump some life. 80k from Maricopa that went 58-42 to Trump.

Kelly will be one of the principal reasons for the Biden win.  Kelly at 4.6% up, Biden at "just" 2.8%.

Without the motivation to go out and also vote for Senate, it's arguable that Trump would have had enough of his loyal and "highly motivated" voters to take the state.

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5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Arizona votes out are almost exclusively in Biden strongholds. It's over there.

Not true. The last batch was from Maricopa County and was Trump 59%; They have said that early votes that come in towards the end in AZ are typically R friendly. I guess I'd rather be Biden than Trump but it'll probably come down to the wire.

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2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Kelly will be one of the principal reasons for the Biden win.  Kelly at 4.6% up, Biden at "just" 2.8%.

Without the motivation to go out and also vote for Senate, it's arguable that Trump would have had enough of his loyal and "highly motivated" voters to take the state.

Kelly's up more because there aren't third parties for the senate race. Although I think he is getting more votes than Biden.

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2 minutes ago, Heads22 said:

Not true. The last batch was from Maricopa County and was Trump 59%; They have said that early votes that come in towards the end in AZ are typically R friendly. I guess I'd rather be Biden than Trump but it'll probably come down to the wire.

This is key. It all depends on the type of vote. Also don't assume that mail in voting in AZ will have similar margins to what we've seen in the Midwest.

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Looking for now like we'll still be waiting until around lunchtime Thursday (CST) before Nevada results clarified

 

 

https://lasvegassun.com/news/2020/nov/04/nevada-official-more-results-may-come-wednesday-af/

 

Early results showed Joe Biden with a slim lead over President Donald Trump in Nevada, but it was too early to declare a winner in the race Wednesday with a large number of ballots yet to be counted.

The top elections official in the most populous county said more results will be released Thursday morning that include mail-in ballots received on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Biden was leading Wednesday afternoon by less than 8,000 votes.

Clark County Registrar of Voters Joe Gloria said at a news conference Wednesday afternoon that he did not have a number for how many ballots had been received but uncounted in the Las Vegas area.

The Nevada Deputy Secretary of State for Elections Wayne Thorley said in a text message earlier Wednesday that the state would likely release some additional results that afternoon but said a few hours later that the state would wait until Thursday morning.

Election officials in Washoe County, Nevada's second-largest which includes Reno, said Wednesday afternoon that they would not be releasing more results until 10 a.m. Thursday morning.

In Las Vegas, Gloria said he would be holding daily 10 a.m. news conferences until all ballots were counted, including provisional ballots that were cast by voters taking advantage of same-day registration, electronic ballots sent to overseas voters or for disabled voters.

Results released so far have not included mail-in ballots received on Election Day, along with any mail ballots postmarked later than Nov. 3 that arrive over the next week and any provisional ballots.

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https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/president/

Politico has already given AZ to Biden, for another example of the different takes on that site...compared to other news organizations holding back on a call.

264-214

Trump would have to sweep Nevada, PA, NC and GA, as we've been saying for almost 24 hours now.

 

 

"When Will We Finally Get Results In Unprojected States?" Podcast

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/when-will-we-finally-get-results-in-unprojected-states/

 

 

Steve Coats

Fox decision desk is still standing by their decision to call Arizona for Biden.
"while additional votes are being counted, we do not believe that this will change the tenor or the texture of the race, and we strongly believe that our call will stand, and that’s why we’re not pulling back the call.”

 

Edited by caulfield12
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