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2020 Election Thoughts


hogan873

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Nevada looks safe for Biden, based on the expected split of votes still to be counted.  Georgia may be slipping to Biden (it's going to be very close either way).  Arizona still looks like it could stay in Biden's column.  And Pennsylvania is up for grabs, with remaining votes looking blue.

Many more paths for Biden than Trump, but things could change.  Hopefully this is resolved by today or tomorrow.  Then, if Biden wins, we'll have to deal with lame duck Donald for a couple months.  It'll be loud, insane, and whiny.

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54 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

Slim but not zero.  I think their best hope is for both GA races to go to a runoff and then win both of those.  In that scenario, the Senate would be split 50/50, and Harris would be the tiebreaker...if Biden wins.

As it stands now, it looks like it might be 51/49 GOP after the runoff in January.

I’d say 2 runoffs seem all but certain. 

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Latest slug of votes in PA went 92% to Biden.  Votes coming in from the Philadelphia area are running about 80% Biden, but the expected remainder should/could be higher for Biden as they are mail-in votes.  If there are enough votes left to count, it's looking promising for Biden.

Trump's attack on voting by mail is backfiring in states that count their mail-in votes last.  It looked like big leads for him in PA, GA, MI, and WI before mail-in votes were counted.  Now he may possibly lose all four states.  Possibly.

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3 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

Latest slug of votes in PA went 92% to Biden.  Votes coming in from the Philadelphia area are running about 80% Biden, but the expected remainder should/could be higher for Biden as they are mail-in votes.  If there are enough votes left to count, it's looking promising for Biden.

Trump's attack on voting by mail is backfiring in states that count their mail-in votes last.  It looked like big leads for him in PA, GA, MI, and WI before mail-in votes were counted.  Now he may possibly lose all four states.  Possibly.

It is trending in that direction.  If the small possibility of Biden winning all of PA, GA, NV & AZ is there...I hope it happens.  Just so that his contention of the results will be much more difficult for them to spin since the EC will be a much greater spread.

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2 hours ago, hogan873 said:

Nevada looks safe for Biden, based on the expected split of votes still to be counted.  Georgia may be slipping to Biden (it's going to be very close either way).  Arizona still looks like it could stay in Biden's column.  And Pennsylvania is up for grabs, with remaining votes looking blue.

Many more paths for Biden than Trump, but things could change.  Hopefully this is resolved by today or tomorrow.  Then, if Biden wins, we'll have to deal with lame duck Donald for a couple months.  It'll be loud, insane, and whiny.

iIn other words, the same as the last four years.

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42 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

Latest slug of votes in PA went 92% to Biden.  Votes coming in from the Philadelphia area are running about 80% Biden, but the expected remainder should/could be higher for Biden as they are mail-in votes.  If there are enough votes left to count, it's looking promising for Biden.

Trump's attack on voting by mail is backfiring in states that count their mail-in votes last.  It looked like big leads for him in PA, GA, MI, and WI before mail-in votes were counted.  Now he may possibly lose all four states.  Possibly.

And it was the opposite in places that did their early counts first like Ohio and Florida.  It has been interesting to see the movements as those different things are counted.

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Regardless of what happens in the end (a Biden win or a Trump win), the Democratic party needs to take a close look at themselves and figure out how to improve.  There was no blue wave, and taking over the Senate seems unlikely.  Biden may win, but it'll be a close finish and not the same-night whalloping they wanted/expected.  They are out of touch with Latinos, they lost some of the black male vote, and there's still people voting for the other party because of who the Democratic nominee was.

If you look at the field of Democratic hopefuls that entered the race, who was better qualified to take down Trump?  I don't know if there was anyone better, and it's looking like Biden might be just good enough.  And that "just good enough" was helped by some prominent Republicans backing him because he wasn't Trump.  Also, COVID, and Trump's handling of it, helped Biden.

If Biden wins, my guess is Kamala runs in 2024.  Would she be a strong enough candidate to fight off Trump Jr or (shudder) Tucker Carlson?  How does the party as a whole get more voters?  How can they go into 2024 feeling good about their chances?

I obviously don't have the answer, but the party needs to take a close look at themselves.

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1 minute ago, hogan873 said:

Regardless of what happens in the end (a Biden win or a Trump win), the Democratic party needs to take a close look at themselves and figure out how to improve.  There was no blue wave, and taking over the Senate seems unlikely.  Biden may win, but it'll be a close finish and not the same-night whalloping they wanted/expected.  They are out of touch with Latinos, they lost some of the black male vote, and there's still people voting for the other party because of who the Democratic nominee was.

If you look at the field of Democratic hopefuls that entered the race, who was better qualified to take down Trump?  I don't know if there was anyone better, and it's looking like Biden might be just good enough.  And that "just good enough" was helped by some prominent Republicans backing him because he wasn't Trump.  Also, COVID, and Trump's handling of it, helped Biden.

If Biden wins, my guess is Kamala runs in 2024.  Would she be a strong enough candidate to fight off Trump Jr or (shudder) Tucker Carlson?  How does the party as a whole get more voters?  How can they go into 2024 feeling good about their chances?

I obviously don't have the answer, but the party needs to take a close look at themselves.

Yuck to Tuck.

I agree that the Dems need to take a long hard look at themselves.  They kind of just muddled through this and didn't really have a plan outside of we aren't Trump....which depending on how it shapes out still might not work to beat Trump.

I am curious what the Rep Party does PT (Post Trump).  Do these Qanon people keep going?  Do they get the same response with out their leader?  Do they Trump kids want to keep the train going?  It will be interesting for the next 4-8 years to see how it shakes out.  But 100% agreed Dems need to decide on a platform.

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Just now, ScooterMcGee said:

Doesn't biden just need Nevada to win? He already has 264 electoral, only needs 6 more which is exactly the number Nevada has.

Any state he wins next is the final state needed pretty sure

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2 minutes ago, ScooterMcGee said:

Doesn't biden just need Nevada to win? He already has 264 electoral, only needs 6 more which is exactly the number Nevada has.

 

1 minute ago, Kyyle23 said:

Any state he wins next is the final state needed pretty sure

AZ isnt clear. If Trump flips AZ back then NV alone isnt enough.

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