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2020 Election Thoughts


hogan873

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30 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Thank you Donald Trump for grifting off tens of millions in donations for these races and also for pushing the $2k checks that Dems were able to absolutely hammer the GOP with over the final push in these races.

 

 

And also trying to bully Georgia's SOS into overturning their previous election days before the runoff. Regardless of outcome, that will be forever regarded as 4D, intergalactic chess strategy.

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Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Still not 100% convinced Ossoff pulls this off.

He's gonna have to underperform heavily in the rest of the vote to lose this. Still 200k+ votes left, mostly in dem areas. A 20k deficit with that much left isn't insurmountable. 

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1 minute ago, chw42 said:

He's gonna have to underperform heavily in the rest of the vote to lose this. Still 200k+ votes left, mostly in dem areas. A 20k deficit with that much left isn't insurmountable. 

Sounds like 20k early votes in Dekalb which should give Ossoff a good 16k and greatly cut the gap, but damn this still seems very close.

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1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Sounds like 20k early votes in Dekalb which should give Ossoff a good 16k and greatly cut the gap, but damn this still seems very close.

NYT's model says that Ossoff and Warnock are slated to win by 27 and 28% of the remaining vote. That's a huge advantage for the rest of the 233k (that's their estimate). So the estimate the rest of the way is 148K-85K. A 60k margin. If anything, Ossoff actually has some room for error assuming these estimates are correct and he doesn't heavily underperform. 

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1 minute ago, chw42 said:

NYT's model says that Ossoff and Warnock are slated to win by 27 and 28% of the remaining vote. That's a huge advantage for the rest of the 233k (that's their estimate). So the estimate the rest of the way is 148K-85K. A 60k margin. If anything, Ossoff actually has some room for error assuming these estimates are correct and he doesn't heavily underperform. 

That makes me feel better!

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4 minutes ago, chw42 said:

NYT's model says that Ossoff and Warnock are slated to win by 27 and 28% of the remaining vote. That's a huge advantage for the rest of the 233k (that's their estimate). So the estimate the rest of the way is 148K-85K. A 60k margin. If anything, Ossoff actually has some room for error assuming these estimates are correct and he doesn't heavily underperform. 

Sorry what is the rest of the 233,000? Mail votes?

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