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2020 Election Thoughts


hogan873

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2 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Brexit was within MoE.

Australian polling missed badly in last year's elections because they were all herding the results.

 

But at the same time, 2018 US polls were pretty good. So were 2012, though they overstated GOP votes.

I don't remember that at all but the pain of that day may be distorting my memory. Brexit was a 42/58 split with a 3+ either way.

I lost more money on that day than any day in my life because of polls and etc. Learned a lot that day.

1. Don't invest in currencies
2. Don't trust polls

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1 minute ago, Texsox said:

Didn't the president have to nominate someone before the Senate could get started? 

Yep...both Obama and Trump did their jobs.  Senate did its job as well.  Obama told McCain that elections have consequences.  I'm surprised this is such a hard concept to follow.

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1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I don't remember that at all but the pain of that day may be distorting my memory. Brexit was a 42/58 split with a 3+ either way.

I lost more money on that day than any day in my life because of polls and etc. Learned a lot that day.

1. Don't invest in currencies
2. Don't trust polls

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

 

It was pretty close in the end and trending towards Leave. It was definitely still a shock, but was within the margin. Kinda like 2016.

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2 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Yep...both Obama and Trump did their jobs.  Senate did its job as well.  Obama told McCain that elections have consequences.  I'm surprised this is such a hard concept to follow.

And you're not bothered by some of the senators and their hypocrisy? 

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5 minutes ago, Iwritecode said:

It's like you're purposely missing the point.

I get the point.  When the rules of the Senate don't work to your point of view you want to make up new rules.  Because Republicans control the Senate they get to take up a nomination or not.  Because Democrats control the House they can impeach the President if they feel like it.  What's not to like?  I remember when the two sides played nice because they knew that one day the roles would be reversed.  Them days are gone my friend.

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7 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Yep...both Obama and Trump did their jobs.  Senate did its job as well.  Obama told McCain that elections have consequences.  I'm surprised this is such a hard concept to follow.

Yes, because clearly people who vote for the POTUS don't matter unless the people also vote for Senators that support that party...

Think about how stupid your sentence is. The goal of elections isn't to fracture the legislative body and not allow a POTUS to get anything accomplished; if that was the case, the POTUS would be elected by the Senate. 

You keep saying elections have consequences, but it appears Republicans weren't themselves willing to deal with those consequences because they just pretended the people never voted for Obama.

McConnell openly bragged about blocking everything of Obama's; that's not politics buddy, that's abusing the power you were given, and IGNORING the people and the vote to push one narrative in absence of the people's voice.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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Just now, mqr said:

Has there been any early counts yet?

By law they can't announce until all the polls close. I believe it was enacted after the Reagan landslide was announced at noon and voter turnout was nil on the west coast.

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1 hour ago, Texsox said:

By law they can't announce until all the polls close. I believe it was enacted after the Reagan landslide was announced at noon and voter turnout was nil on the west coast.

Mostly meant exit polls and turnout counts and the like

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2 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

The allegations against Hunter and Joe are at most corrupt business dealings and not treason, though.

Joe is certainly in a compromised position with any deals where he makes trade deals with the Chinese.  Time will tell if his actions were treason or not.  A biased press does not help get to the bottom of these revelations but they will come out eventually.  On a side note...why do you suppose contributions to the Clinton Foundation dried up after she lost her bid for the Presidency?  Maybe the Chinese were hoping to have access to Joe Biden.  Crooks!

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6 minutes ago, mqr said:

Mostly meant exit polls and turnout counts and the like

Exit polls in the US are typically not the most reliable and will be useless this year given that over 100M people voted early and we expect heavy partisan splits.

 

 

E: you can track voting turnout by party registration, but that doesn't really tell you a whole lot. Until this year, West Virginia had far more registered Dems than Reps! Lots of ancestral voter registrations, and about a third of the electorate is No Party Affiliation at all.

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5 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Joe is certainly in a compromised position with any deals where he makes trade deals with the Chinese.  Time will tell if his actions were treason or not.  A biased press does not help get to the bottom of these revelations but they will come out eventually.  On a side note...why do you suppose contributions to the Clinton Foundation dried up after she lost her bid for the Presidency?  Maybe the Chinese were hoping to have access to Joe Biden.  Crooks!

Maybe they were sending money to the Trump Foundation instead. Oh, wait..

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11 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Joe is certainly in a compromised position with any deals where he makes trade deals with the Chinese.  Time will tell if his actions were treason or not.  A biased press does not help get to the bottom of these revelations but they will come out eventually.  On a side note...why do you suppose contributions to the Clinton Foundation dried up after she lost her bid for the Presidency?  Maybe the Chinese were hoping to have access to Joe Biden.  Crooks!

Clinton and Hunter Biden arent running for office in case you weren't aware.  While we are on the subject of being compromised along with a relative, how is it that Ivanka goes to China with her dad and comes back with 40+ Patent approvals by the Chinese government and let's also talk about the undisclosed Trump Chinese bank account that he withdrew 15 million from?

it's weird how you keep talking about these people who aren't running for office but you never talk about the one in office  

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5 minutes ago, Tony said:

No no no. You aren't getting out of this with that response. It's only pointless to argue politics when you don't have an answer. 

How do I want highly populated states to pick the President? Explain that to me. I want every single vote, if you are in Chicago, Little Rock or Bumfuck Idaho to count exactly the same. The person with the most votes wins. Explain to me why that makes LESS sense than the electoral college system, which boils down the entire election to 3-4 states. In 2020, Florida and Pennsylvania will decide this election...for the entire country. Why do those two states get to have so much power, by my vote in Illinois can basically be thrown away because we always vote one way. Why vote then if my vote doesn't mean anything? If you lived in Florida, why is your vote more important than mine? That doesn't seem right, does it? 

I don't want to hear about who you voted for, I don't care. I want you to explain why you support the current system and so far you have given me ZERO REASONS 

Once you start unraveling the premise of United *States* you have to rewrite the constitution. That federalism is core to the principals of our Constitution.

I can't imagine the fights over election results. Every election will be a repeat of Bush - Gore only nationally as every precinct gets recounted. 

It also prevents one or two major cases of election fraud from changing the results. Now you would need to coordinate in many states you make a difference.

Again, it also forces candidates to at least make a token attempt at covering all 50 states.

 

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24 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Joe is certainly in a compromised position with any deals where he makes trade deals with the Chinese.  Time will tell if his actions were treason or not.  A biased press does not help get to the bottom of these revelations but they will come out eventually.  On a side note...why do you suppose contributions to the Clinton Foundation dried up after she lost her bid for the Presidency?  Maybe the Chinese were hoping to have access to Joe Biden.  Crooks!

The President owes hundreds of millions of dollars to the bank of China.

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