2020 Election Thoughts

[Soxbadger]

I think Americans will do the right thing. I think at the end of the day we are a country that respect's differences, that we may not all agree, but we have a basic belief in fairness and equality.

If things go the other way, I dont really know how I will feel.

Edited October 28, 2020 by Soxbadger

[ron883]

8 hours ago, Markbilliards said:

I am assuming that's sarcasm?  Or no?  I just hope that whoever wins, wins by a good enough margin that the other isn't yelling about recounts for the next month.

If Trump loses, you can guarantee that he will say it was rigged and refuse to concede the results, lol. Either way I think there will be unrest after the election.

Biden wins: Trump will without question say it was rigged and that he didn't lose fairly. The perception of him losing just kills him. He will not concede. This will divide the country even further. Tensions will rise.

Trump wins: mass protesting and subsequent rioting/looting. Looters have been emboldened in the recent year. Tensions are already high and this will just set things off if it happens. I'm guessing there will be mass protesting and rioters/looters taking advantage of the situation. 

Either way, I think things get ugly, unfortunately. 

[WilliamTell]

I don't know why but I just have a feeling that Trump "wins." I highly doubt he'll win the popular vote, but obviously that doesn't matter. And maybe I'm thinking this because I just feel like it's highly unlikely for Biden to be up like 8-10% like most of these polls are saying. What I am confident about is this overload of absentee voting is going to be extremely chaotic if the results are actually close because I don't trust either party. Honestly I wish we had a stronger or more viable third or fourth parties for options because both of the main one's annoy me to the point of not being able to have any interest on politics these days. Take my opinion with a grain of salt, it's from someone who's going to vote, but hasn't been gauging as much of an interest as I probably should have.

Edited October 28, 2020 by WilliamTell

[The Beast]

6 hours ago, WilliamTell said:

I don't know why but I just have a feeling that Trump "wins." I highly doubt he'll win the popular vote, but obviously that doesn't matter. And maybe I'm thinking this because I just feel like it's highly unlikely for Biden to be up like 8-10% like most of these polls are saying. What I am confident about is this overload of absentee voting is going to be extremely chaotic if the results are actually close because I don't trust either party. Honestly I wish we had a stronger or more viable third or fourth parties for options because both of the main one's annoy me to the point of not being able to have any interest on politics these days. Take my opinion with a grain of salt, it's from someone who's going to vote, but hasn't been gauging as much of an interest as I probably should have.

How would a viable third party candidate get on the scene though? It seems like the closest to third party was Ross Perot and Ralph Nader or maybe Jill Stein. Bernie Sanders is an independent who campaigns with the Democratic Party. And then there is an assortment of other parties on the ballot, but don’t poll well enough to make debates. I’m just not sure what views a third party candidate could offer that could convince more voters than the two major parties, or how a third party candidate could be funded, short of self funding.

Also, do we think the polling is wrong and that droves of people are lying to pollsters?

Edited October 28, 2020 by The Beast

[NWINFan]

My mail arrived at 8:30 last night and that was not the first time that it came that late. The sabotaging of the US Mail is a crime, and to commit this crime to drive down the vote is a bigger crime. We need major reform regarding elections. There is no excuse for this shit.

[WilliamTell]

2 hours ago, The Beast said:

How would a viable third party candidate get on the scene though? It seems like the closest to third party was Ross Perot and Ralph Nader or maybe Jill Stein. Bernie Sanders is an independent who campaigns with the Democratic Party. And then there is an assortment of other parties on the ballot, but don’t poll well enough to make debates. I’m just not sure what views a third party candidate could offer that could convince more voters than the two major parties, or how a third party candidate could be funded, short of self funding.

Also, do we think the polling is wrong and that droves of people are lying to pollsters?

With our political structure I don't think there's a chance at in increase in a 3rd party. That's the one thing both parties can agree on. Honestly I think this is just a game to a lot of our political leaders (like Trump) but that's just my opinion. I don't know, I just don't really feel like I identify with either party therefore I guess I'm an independent haha.

[mqr]

2 hours ago, The Beast said:

How would a viable third party candidate get on the scene though?

Almost literally impossible without a fundamental reworking of how elections work. 

[mqr]

2 hours ago, The Beast said:

Also, do we think the polling is wrong and that droves of people are lying to pollsters?

If those people exist, which I really doubt, it's in states where it doesn't matter who they vote for anyway I would think. 

[StrangeSox]

Our structure does largely lock in a duopoloy, especially at the Presidential level. You need a majority of Electoral Votes, so if a 3rd party started regularly getting a few dozen, we'd regularly have the election being sent to the House (which then has it's own rules as for how they pick a new President). You could go to pure popular vote with a requirement of say 10% margin or simple majority in the first round (e.g. if you won 45%-10%-25%, you're president, or if you get 50%+1), or you could require majority in the first round and then it goes to a top-two runoff. Some states, such as Georgia, already do that for Representative and Senate elections. You could couple new structures like that with ranked choice voting, like Maine now does, where you pick your first and second candidates. So your 3rd party, longshot vote isn't "wasted." They implemented this after the centrist and liberal dem candidates kept splitting about 60% of the vote, allowing the far right governor to win with 40%. It came into play in the 2018 elections.

 

If you want a multiparty democracy, you'd have to fundamentally reform our structure top to bottom I think. Here's a recent example of how a proportional representation parliamentary democracy might look like in America:

 

 

e: potential downsides of structures like this may include situations like Israel's most recent elections, where nobody could form a governing majority in parliament and they had to have 3 or 4 elections before a temporary COVID coalition was able to be formed.

 

There aren't too many Presidential republics compared to parliamentary democracies, and the structure of our particular one is unique given that it was created over two centuries ago. 

 

In a multiparty parliamentary system, I wouldn't be forced to support Biden, and a number of conservatives wouldn't reluctantly be voting for Trump. Our coalitions and politics would look radically different, so it's hard to know exactly how things would shake out.

Edited October 28, 2020 by StrangeSox

[he gone.]

20 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

Brian Anderson's prediction: these candidates have a 50/50 shot of winning

 

?

haha. for an official prediction - everything goes blue, ba dee da dum. we'll be living in a blue house with a blue window with a blue corvette and everything will be blue. 

[Kyyle23]

21 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

haha. for an official prediction - everything goes blue, ba dee da dum. we'll be living in a blue house with a blue window with a blue corvette and everything will be blue. 

 

[Balta1701]

Using 5-4 Supreme Court votes, starting next Tuesday the government begins declaring packages of ballots invalid in major swing states, even tossing out results from some blue states entirely. Ballots are seized from some areas by DHS personnel at gunpoint. Trump declares himself the winner and says that the Democrats committed fraud. Democrats declare Trump to have stolen the election. Trump orders key opposition figures jailed as party takes full control. Some flee country, others in prison. Violence in streets causes Trump to order in army, army follows his orders and puts down opposition, by force in some cases. We watch over the next month as US democratic experiment collapses.

[Soxbadger]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Using 5-4 Supreme Court votes, starting next Tuesday the government begins declaring packages of ballots invalid in major swing states, even tossing out results from some blue states entirely. Ballots are seized from some areas by DHS personnel at gunpoint. Trump declares himself the winner and says that the Democrats committed fraud. Democrats declare Trump to have stolen the election. Trump orders key opposition figures jailed as party takes full control. Some flee country, others in prison. Violence in streets causes Trump to order in army, army follows his orders and puts down opposition, by force in some cases. We watch over the next month as US democratic experiment collapses.

Ill bet against this. 

[he gone.]

I also predict this thread is locked by the time of election night. I never really understand why politics evoke such raw emotions and inability to compromise but that's life i guess. 

My theory on it is like when two people who are super alike hate each other, not realizing they are completely the same person. A good real world example is like a wife and a mother-in-law not liking each other even though the son basically marries a version of his mom. They're the same, but dont realize how alike they are. 

That's politics to me. There's no "conservative" approach when it comes to spending - the deficit is huge regardless of who's in charge - balanced budgets are of old. They both are about the same on war, spending, international relations, socially .. i mean ... there are some differences, but i think those are just echoed and amplified more than they're real. 

The only reason politics is interesting to me is the psychology of humans and how we fight so much about them, but in general fall in line everywhere else. 

[Dick Allen]

1 minute ago, Soxbadger said:

Ill bet against this. 

I wouldn't bet too much. 

[Soxbadger]

Just now, Dick Allen said:

I wouldn't bet too much. 

I would. 

[Dick Allen]

I also predict, if Trump is retained, he starts treating a lot more republicans like he treats democrats.

[Jerksticks]

3 minutes ago, Tony said:

I've had a similar thought. He's actually had to somewhat restrain himself in order to get re-elected. If he has another 4 years in office but without a re-election hanging over his head..........he's going to go to a level we didn't even think possible for him, which is incredibly scary. 

For sure.  One area I’d be excited though is giving him 4 more years to really hammer China.  I think more of the world will have to fall in line regarding China if he gets another term.  This is probably the best thing for the world on a macro level.   A Biden win is probably a forever pass for China.  

[NWINFan]

7 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I wouldn't bet too much. 

We have to be prepared for anything. Regardless, I don't think a candidate will be able to claim victory on next Tuesday unless it's obvious Biden has won Florida. Without Florida, Trump has no path to the presidency. I also think that Trump has had it and really doesn't want to remain in the job. In any event, I wouldn't put anything past him and he is capable of using time-consuming litigation. Let's hope the election aftermath doesn't get out of hand. If a transition is needed, it needs to be a smooth one.  This has been a horse shit year. We don't need any more drama, and we certainly don't need violence in the streets.

[ron883]

28 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Using 5-4 Supreme Court votes, starting next Tuesday the government begins declaring packages of ballots invalid in major swing states, even tossing out results from some blue states entirely. Ballots are seized from some areas by DHS personnel at gunpoint. Trump declares himself the winner and says that the Democrats committed fraud. Democrats declare Trump to have stolen the election. Trump orders key opposition figures jailed as party takes full control. Some flee country, others in prison. Violence in streets causes Trump to order in army, army follows his orders and puts down opposition, by force in some cases. We watch over the next month as US democratic experiment collapses.

Alex Jones type stuff right here

[BigHurt3515]

When will we get competent candidates to vote for again? I hate having to choose the lesser of two evils.  

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, BrianAnderson said:

I also predict this thread is locked by the time of election night. I never really understand why politics evoke such raw emotions and inability to compromise but that's life i guess. 

My theory on it is like when two people who are super alike hate each other, not realizing they are completely the same person. A good real world example is like a wife and a mother-in-law not liking each other even though the son basically marries a version of his mom. They're the same, but dont realize how alike they are. 

That's politics to me. There's no "conservative" approach when it comes to spending - the deficit is huge regardless of who's in charge - balanced budgets are of old. They both are about the same on war, spending, international relations, socially .. i mean ... there are some differences, but i think those are just echoed and amplified more than they're real. 

The only reason politics is interesting to me is the psychology of humans and how we fight so much about them, but in general fall in line everywhere else. 

Less than 20 years ago it was illegal to be gay in this country in many states. Several of the people who voted that it should be a crime to be gay if a state says so are still on the Supreme Court today. Have you ever had to worry about being thrown in jail for what you do in your bedroom? It is still legal in many states to deny people housing for being gay or fire them for it. Would you be ok with losing your house? 

The only reason I can type this is a prescription drug I’m on. I’m nonfunctional without them. I’m currently on an ACA plan. Without it I’m uninsurable. Unemployable. Bankrupt. Non functional and in terrific pain. I’ve got a new job now that will cover insurance for the next 2 years, but without prescriptions, you basically kill me. Get rid of the ACA and you literally leave me stuck in bed struggling to get out if this job ends.

For some people this isn’t the difference between a 0 and 10% capital gains tax.

[Soxbadger]

11 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

For sure.  One area I’d be excited though is giving him 4 more years to really hammer China.  I think more of the world will have to fall in line regarding China if he gets another term.  This is probably the best thing for the world on a macro level.   A Biden win is probably a forever pass for China.  

China is more successful now then they were 4 years ago in terms of world influence. The TPP was going to be a huge counterbalance and give the US massive economic sway in South East Asia.

Its the equivalent of the United Kingdom thinking in 18th century that by taxing the colonies more they will eventually fall in line.

 

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Alex Jones type stuff right here

I’m ok with being wrong.

[mqr]

Alls I know for a fact is that Lame Duck DJT would be appointment internet.