2020 Election Thoughts

[KrankinSox]

This election comes down to 9 states:

AZ, GA, FL, NC, PA, OH, MI, WI, and MN.

Trump needs FL, OH and 4 others. I think he gets FL and OH. I think he gets AZ, GA, and NC.

Can he win PA, MI, WI, or MN? The polls would indicate no but they looked similar in 2016 and he won 3 of those states and only lost MN by 1 point.

I think Biden wins because Trump needs too many things to go right but I think this is a close race.

[Dick Allen]

31 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

For sure.  One area I’d be excited though is giving him 4 more years to really hammer China.  I think more of the world will have to fall in line regarding China if he gets another term.  This is probably the best thing for the world on a macro level.   A Biden win is probably a forever pass for China.  

He's really hammered them already. He got the Chinese trade deficit down from $437 billion to $435 billion, and all it took was Americans paying more taxes, err tariffs on Chinese goods, and a big socialist bailout to the most well off farmers. BTW, the US trade deficit overall is up 20% during this administration's time. 

 

[turnin' two]

I can't stand either candidate.  I'm voting for Kanye.  The idea of Kim K. as first lady really amuses me.  So that's what I'm going for.  

 

I live in Illinois, by the way, so my vote doesn't really matter. 

Edited October 28, 2020 by turnin' two

[hogan873]

33 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

This election comes down to 9 states:

AZ, GA, FL, NC, PA, OH, MI, WI, and MN.

Trump needs FL, OH and 4 others. I think he gets FL and OH. I think he gets AZ, GA, and NC.

Can he win PA, MI, WI, or MN? The polls would indicate no but they looked similar in 2016 and he won 3 of those states and only lost MN by 1 point.

I think Biden wins because Trump needs too many things to go right but I think this is a close race.

Texas is now being discussed as a toss-up, but I'm not sure I believe that.  I think Trump wins FL, OH, GA, and possibly NC.  Biden wins PA, WI, MI, MN, and AZ.  If two of FL, OH, and PA go to Biden, I think it's over.  Hell, if FL goes to Biden early on election night it could be called pretty quickly.

Going to be a crazy night and most likely days after.

[Quin]

Florida has a chance to be one of the first states called - this is because they are equipped to rapidly count mail in ballots.

If Biden wins it -  because Trump is hemorrhaging elderly voters due to COVID - Trump needs to run the table. On the flip side, Trump has strong support amongst the Cuban American community.

Trump is currently in a bad spot in every swing state except Ohio and Texas. In Ohio he has a narrow lead. Texas is currently trending Biden and is having massive voter turnout after being one of the most dismal voter turnout states in the nation for years.

I understand "polls were wrong" is a meme from 2016, but they had Trump within the margin of error. 538's model, especially post-Comey, gave Trump a 1-in-3 shot. That's a big shot. Also, new models and polling are much more heavily focused on swing states this time around and designed to account for crunch, undecideds breaking, etc. Essentially, all the factors that broke for Trump.

Obviously, something can swing his way, but he's playing heavy defense and desperately needs good news. Unfortunately for him, his campaign is strapped for cash whereas Biden and Biden allies are flush with cash, the Trump campaign is falling ass-backwards with a dumb headline daily, and Trump's rallies are walking super spreader events which has likely cost him Wisconsin. 

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

I also predict, if Trump is retained, he starts treating a lot more republicans like he treats democrats.

I think there are a fair amount of scared Republicans who also want Trump to lose.  They can't say it out loud for fear of having the Trump Cult aimed at them, but they are there.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Jerksticks said:

For sure.  One area I’d be excited though is giving him 4 more years to really hammer China.  I think more of the world will have to fall in line regarding China if he gets another term.  This is probably the best thing for the world on a macro level.   A Biden win is probably a forever pass for China.  

For what?  More business loans?

[southsider2k5]

12 minutes ago, Quin said:

Florida has a chance to be one of the first states called - this is because they are equipped to rapidly count mail in ballots.

If Biden wins it -  because Trump is hemorrhaging elderly voters due to COVID - Trump needs to run the table. On the flip side, Trump has strong support amongst the Cuban American community.

Trump is currently in a bad spot in every swing state except Ohio and Texas. In Ohio he has a narrow lead. Texas is currently trending Biden and is having massive voter turnout after being one of the most dismal voter turnout states in the nation for years.

I understand "polls were wrong" is a meme from 2016, but they had Trump within the margin of error. 538's model, especially post-Comey, gave Trump a 1-in-3 shot. That's a big shot. Also, new models and polling are much more heavily focused on swing states this time around and designed to account for crunch, undecideds breaking, etc. Essentially, all the factors that broke for Trump.

Obviously, something can swing his way, but he's playing heavy defense and desperately needs good news. Unfortunately for him, his campaign is strapped for cash whereas Biden and Biden allies are flush with cash, the Trump campaign is falling ass-backwards with a dumb headline daily, and Trump's rallies are walking super spreader events which has likely cost him Wisconsin. 

The dirty tricks campaign that worked in 2016 is utterly failing in 2020.  Even if it were actually true, because it is a Trump product, 2/3 of the country won't believe it.

[mqr]

20 minutes ago, Quin said:

Florida has a chance to be one of the first states called - this is because they are equipped to rapidly count mail in ballots.

If Biden wins it -  because Trump is hemorrhaging elderly voters due to COVID - Trump needs to run the table. On the flip side, Trump has strong support amongst the Cuban American community.

Trump is currently in a bad spot in every swing state except Ohio and Texas. In Ohio he has a narrow lead. Texas is currently trending Biden and is having massive voter turnout after being one of the most dismal voter turnout states in the nation for years.

I understand "polls were wrong" is a meme from 2016, but they had Trump within the margin of error. 538's model, especially post-Comey, gave Trump a 1-in-3 shot. That's a big shot. Also, new models and polling are much more heavily focused on swing states this time around and designed to account for crunch, undecideds breaking, etc. Essentially, all the factors that broke for Trump.

Obviously, something can swing his way, but he's playing heavy defense and desperately needs good news. Unfortunately for him, his campaign is strapped for cash whereas Biden and Biden allies are flush with cash, the Trump campaign is falling ass-backwards with a dumb headline daily, and Trump's rallies are walking super spreader events which has likely cost him Wisconsin. 

I think it's also worth noting that it was pretty significantly understated how much people HATED Clinton. Plenty of people don't like Joe (AMA) but he has the benefit of this being a referendum on 4 years of Trump.  

[Quin]

7 minutes ago, mqr said:

I think it's also worth noting that it was pretty significantly understated how much people HATED Clinton. Plenty of people don't like Joe (AMA) but he has the benefit of this being a referendum on 4 years of Trump.  

Additionally, undecideds broke for Trump last go around.

This time it's flipped.

[he gone.]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Less than 20 years ago it was illegal to be gay in this country in many states. Several of the people who voted that it should be a crime to be gay if a state says so are still on the Supreme Court today. Have you ever had to worry about being thrown in jail for what you do in your bedroom? It is still legal in many states to deny people housing for being gay or fire them for it. Would you be ok with losing your house? 

The only reason I can type this is a prescription drug I’m on. I’m nonfunctional without them. I’m currently on an ACA plan. Without it I’m uninsurable. Unemployable. Bankrupt. Non functional and in terrific pain. I’ve got a new job now that will cover insurance for the next 2 years, but without prescriptions, you basically kill me. Get rid of the ACA and you literally leave me stuck in bed struggling to get out if this job ends.

For some people this isn’t the difference between a 0 and 10% capital gains tax.

That's really projecting on pretty mild commentary from my end. You bolded my part where i said I don't get why politics evokes such raw emotion, and took it to a whole different conversation. I guess I'll address your take - but i'm not sure what it accomplishes.

People can be gay, straight, bi, or act like they're a pet cat for all i care. people weren't going around arresting people on the streets for being gay ... so although this may be a sensitive topic, it's really being blown out of proportion on your take. Which is kind of politics in general ... we focus on the tangible stuff to dumb it down for the  mass public to be able to latch on & then blast those issues everywhere in 20 second snippets and soundbites. its ADHD and lowest common denominator. We focus on "sensationalized" topics while ignoring the real problems, why they're problems, why did the pop up, and how did we get there. 

Health insurance for all as an example - I'm for it. I also think Americans, and how they take care of themselves is really sad. Think of America and our lives as a root. That root grows and grows and builds upward. EVerything continues to expand and branch out from our decisions at the root.. well that tree isn't going to be too healthy or grow if it doesn't get the right sunlight, water, nutrients, etc. 

Humans are the same. Healthcare doesn't have to be this crazy expensive solution. We should have schools really highlighting good diets, exercise, etc. Using the science classes to explain food, our bodies etc. instead of just using school to memorize stuff, we should be applying it to our own lives. You do that and you have a healthier, more active population, which cuts down on healthcare costs for things like heart disease, diabetes, mental health, etc. etc. where we are in America is a symptom of the disease we've created over time. And just giving UBI or giving free healthcare doesn't really fix the root of the problem. The root of the problem goes back to the issues previously mentioned. giving free _________ fill in the blank just encourages the same behavior which in then snowballs the issue until it completely rots out and the tree dies. 

Now don't take this as a response to your paragraph and whatever issue you have ... that's not the point of that paragraph ... not sure what you have and nor do i care. its not my business, nor is it my business if you're dressing up as a cat at home. I'm all for provided healthcare & think it truly is the responsiblity of the government to provide it, while at the same time going back to the root of the issue and fixing it for the next generation. They need to clean up the mess they created, but need to also create an atmosphere where it doesnt happen at the same volume go forward.

I also think we need to be cognizant and admit what is driving A LARGE percentage of these issues, which is people's health, which leads to weight issues, back issues, knee issues, diabetes, heart, mental health, etc. etc. which leads to depression which leads to isolation, sometimes crime, etc. etc. etc. Again those aren't straight line correlations, just general correlations. So before people start nit picking specific lines to bold and quote to why my post is so bad, just remember this is in general. 

 

To me it all stems back to really three main things which i think all elections should be about - and what I think America needs to focus on:

Education - needs a complete overhaul. We've raised a society of people who memorize for grades on a test rather than teaching critical thinking skills, how to apply those skills, every day life skills (cooking, trades (construction, heating, plumbing, mechanics), entrepreneurship, business planning, financial planning. Science should be tied to health, to our bodies, to our minds. Math should be tied to construction and financial planning and saving and business planning, computer sciences, etc. Memorizing for tests to get a letter grade so that you can get into an overpriced college to memorize more useless drab bullshit doesn't make us smarter, it makes us stiff, non flexible, robots. There's a reason a large percentage of entrepreneurs are from overseas. our system doesn't incentivize creativity or applying learning. it's all for grades, letters, designations, etc. The world needs less MBA yes men and more thinkers and doers and it stems for a broken schooling system. 

Health - basically what i said above. We are a sick society and i believe a lot stems from that. I think all schools should have dedicated time to sitting one on one with a counselor no matter what, working through home issues, how to deal with those, how to overcome. meditation, yoga, learning yourself, and establishing smart, healthy practice. Setting the precedent for a healthy, sound mind and body is instilling power in the individual to overcome. 

Money - stresses of life are primarily driven by money. The current system is a broke joke. Fix the money and you fix a lot of the above. Money drives people more than anything else in the world. Money is just a value of time expressed in dollars currently. You can read my thoughts on that in the financial thread, but the current system of zero percent interest rates creates a larger divide & puts will this society worse than ever before.

So those are my thoughts. Paint me red or blue or purple. it 100% doesn't matter who's in power this next term or the 10 terms after that if we don't fix the root. 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

That's really projecting on pretty mild commentary from my end. You bolded my part where i said I don't get why politics evokes such raw emotion, and took it to a whole different conversation. I guess I'll address your take - but i'm not sure what it accomplishes.

People can be gay, straight, bi, or act like they're a pet cat for all i care. people weren't going around arresting people on the streets for being gay ... so although this may be a sensitive topic, it's really being blown out of proportion on your take. Which is kind of politics in general ... we focus on the tangible stuff to dumb it down for the  mass public to be able to latch on & then blast those issues everywhere in 20 second snippets and soundbites. its ADHD and lowest common denominator. We focus on "sensationalized" topics while ignoring the real problems, why they're problems, why did the pop up, and how did we get there.  fix the root. 

You see, this is why people are incensed by politics, because "it didn't happen to me so I declare it doesn't happen or is blown out of proportion" is almost as outrageous as when it actually happens. So while you may not care about it...It matters an awful lot to the people being arrested.

https://slate.com/human-interest/2013/08/gay-people-are-still-being-arrested-for-having-consensual-sex-in-some-red-states-like-louisiana.html

 

[he gone.]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You see, this is why people are incensed by politics, because "it didn't happen to me so I declare it doesn't happen or is blown out of proportion" is almost as outrageous as when it actually happens. So while you may not care about it...It matters an awful lot to the people being arrested.

https://slate.com/human-interest/2013/08/gay-people-are-still-being-arrested-for-having-consensual-sex-in-some-red-states-like-louisiana.html

 

no that falls in line with what i said .... taking a 0.000001% story and acting like its happening everywhere in droves. Yes it sucks. Yes that's wrong. 

No I don't think it should be covered at nauseum when there are so many other issues that are really the core of the problem. 

You fix those problems and I'd bet you don't have people who are so afraid of what they don't know that they're arresting and projecting their own insecurities. 

But that seems to be your way of arguing ... You took something i didn't bring up, brought it up, then i responded in a well reasoned manner, and you find a fringe, one-off story. 

It doesn't actually move anything forward, stuck in neutral arguing that you won an argument that i am not even arguing against you in. around and around we go in a circle. 

[KrankinSox]

This thread made it 3 pages before derailing LOL. Shocked it made it that far.

[he gone.]

agreed. personally i didn't think it would be a mod who would take it there. I brought none of those topics up and wanted nothing to do with taking it there ...

To get it back on track - i think the election will actually go a bit smoother in almost all states than people are anticipating. I do think there will be the normal swing states that may have controversy (Michigan, Florida) and also think Wisconsin will be Red this time around even though it's trending blue by polls. 

My theory on that is more or less Covid cases.. the more there are, the more defiant the people are, the more cases there are, and the more it reflects where their heads are at in regards to things ... in this case i think wisconsin may actually be an upset to Trump. Just a hunch. 

[Soxbadger]

6 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

agreed. personally i didn't think it would be a mod who would take it there. I brought none of those topics up and wanted nothing to do with taking it there ...

To get it back on track - i think the election will actually go a bit smoother in almost all states than people are anticipating. I do think there will be the normal swing states that may have controversy (Michigan, Florida) and also think Wisconsin will be Red this time around even though it's trending blue by polls. 

My theory on that is more or less Covid cases.. the more there are, the more defiant the people are, the more cases there are, and the more it reflects where their heads are at in regards to things ... in this case i think wisconsin may actually be an upset to Trump. Just a hunch. 

Its been many moons since I lived in Wisconsin, but Id guess it will go for Biden.

A big reason is the recent developments with respect to Graham Mertz and Wisconsin football. People in Wisconsin love football. The game Saturday is cancelled, Mertz is out 21 days and may possibly miss the Michigan game. The Badgers are something that brings together the liberal and conservative factions in Wisconsin. There is going to be a lot of anger.

[StrangeSox]

At least per NYT's breakdowns, Trump would need a larger polling miss in his favor than he got in 2016 at this point.

 

Turnout continues to grow

 

 

 

Edited October 28, 2020 by StrangeSox

[Quin]

43 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

agreed. personally i didn't think it would be a mod who would take it there. I brought none of those topics up and wanted nothing to do with taking it there ...

To get it back on track - i think the election will actually go a bit smoother in almost all states than people are anticipating. I do think there will be the normal swing states that may have controversy (Michigan, Florida) and also think Wisconsin will be Red this time around even though it's trending blue by polls. 

My theory on that is more or less Covid cases.. the more there are, the more defiant the people are, the more cases there are, and the more it reflects where their heads are at in regards to things ... in this case i think wisconsin may actually be an upset to Trump. Just a hunch. 

Hospitals are currently overwhelmed in Wisconsin. It's hitting hardest in the rural areas, not Madison or Milwaukee.

It's also uncontrolled spread. COVID has proven to be the biggest detriment to Trump. Once it hits a location, people get mad at him.

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, Quin said:

Hospitals are currently overwhelmed in Wisconsin. It's hitting hardest in the rural areas, not Madison or Milwaukee.

It's also uncontrolled spread. COVID has proven to be the biggest detriment to Trump. Once it hits a location, people get mad at him.

South Bends main hospital is turning away peole.

[Quin]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

South Bends main hospital is turning away peole.

Don't worry, the White House has officially ended the COVID-19 pandemic.

[southsider2k5]

The most damning part of it all is how many people who worked for the President absolutely despised the man.  I don't recall it being like this for any other President in my lifetime.

 

[NWINFan]

5 hours ago, mqr said:

I think it's also worth noting that it was pretty significantly understated how much people HATED Clinton. Plenty of people don't like Joe (AMA) but he has the benefit of this being a referendum on 4 years of Trump.  

Clinton just had too much baggage. She's a smart woman, but she doesn't connect with people. People may be leery of Biden, but they don't hate him as a person. And Trump's rallies are falling flat. He's saying stupid things, people are walking away, and he acts like he would rather be somewhere else. This is the strangest election year. And the most stressful. I will be glad when next Tuesday is here and then gone. I don't want to hear about one more stupid poll. I will believe things when all the votes are counted. And I hope all the votes are counted. Do you hear that, Trump? You can't claim victory just because you may be ahead at one point. Even if you do, the claim has no legal standing behind it.

[Soxbadger]

3 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

Clinton just had too much baggage. She's a smart woman, but she doesn't connect with people. People may be leery of Biden, but they don't hate him as a person. And Trump's rallies are falling flat. He's saying stupid things, people are walking away, and he acts like he would rather be somewhere else. This is the strangest election year. And the most stressful. I will be glad when next Tuesday is here and then gone. I don't want to hear about one more stupid poll. I will believe things when all the votes are counted. And I hope all the votes are counted. Do you hear that, Trump? You can't claim victory just because you may be ahead at one point. Even if you do, the claim has no legal standing behind it.

Clinton is actually more likeable than people give her credit for.  The biggest baggage she had was running as the 1st female President. That is a tremendous weight to be under and so I think she played it "safe" in the way she acted. Now that she is out of politics you can actually see her humor and personality. Howard Stern tried to get her on his show to humanize her.

As for every vote counting, we shall see what Trump says if he is losing on November 3. I guarantee he will immediately change his position and say that we should wait for every vote to be counted.

 

[Balta1701]

39 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

And I hope all the votes are counted. Do you hear that, Trump? You can't claim victory just because you may be ahead at one point. Even if you do, the claim has no legal standing behind it.

The Supreme Court would like Pennsylvania voters to know that they will not overrule the state's Supreme Court today on what the deadline is for ballots to arrive, but they may change their mind and come back and toss out ballots after retroactively changing the rules.

Texas Republicans are now asking a court to throw out 100,000 already cast votes from the city of Houston. 

 

[whitesoxfan99]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

The Supreme Court would like Pennsylvania voters to know that they will not overrule the state's Supreme Court today on what the deadline is for ballots to arrive, but they may change their mind and come back and toss out ballots after retroactively changing the rules.

Texas Republicans are now asking a court to throw out 100,000 already cast votes from the city of Houston. 

 

The current republican platform is nothing but voter suppression, racism, (fake) anti-abortion and xenophobia.  They stand for nothing.

This says everything about the modern GOP.  Can’t campaign on any plans for making the future better since they have none so let’s try to get votes tossed out so we can maintain power to continue to grift.  
 

Also more evidence that the Hunter Biden story is complete bullshit is that Tucker Carlson claims damning documents he had vanished.  Of course we all know those never existed because any normal person would have made copies and sent electronically.