2020 Election Thoughts

[pcq]

No reason not to call NV based on remaining votes says Nate Silver. Burn down the mission.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Texsox said:

Isn't that explained by rural areas being the last to be hit by the virus and most likely to be conservative? More coincidence than anything else. 

Well, yes. That's the why they have the most cases right now.

[mqr]

 

[Texsox]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Well, yes. That's the why they have the most cases right now.

So why did liberal cities get hit first?

[KipWellsFan]

Okay I will bite on this question Krankin is asking about Russia and 2016. Sorry to be long winded...

I'm not sure Trump and his people technically colluded deliberately with Russia. But I believe some of them were so inexperienced, inept, and so completely ignorant of the national security implications that they actually became entangled with hostile agents. Did Trump say some dumb stuff that allowed people to accuse him of colluding? Yes probably. Remember when he said “Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing”? So that's probably on him. A serious politician with a keen sense of national security would never say something like that.

And I don't think my conclusion is raving of a crazy leftist. It's probably a rational and reasonable concern. I thought that is essentially what the Muller investigation found. So I went back and looked at it now, and provide this summary of conclusions of the Muller Report:

• Russia did interfere in an election and it was "sweeping and systematic.
• That members of the Trump administration welcomed the interference as they believed it would benefit them
• There were some links between people in the Trump campaign and individuals tied to the Russian government. And some of these individuals lied or obstructed the investigation into these ties.

On top of this, it is my belief that at least one individual close to Trump (Rudy Giuliani) is STILL, knowingly or not, working with people with ties to the Russian government. As explained in this article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/giuliani-biden-ukraine-russian-disinformation/2020/10/15/43158900-0ef5-11eb-b1e8-16b59b92b36d_story.html

All that being said, I don't know if any of this had any material impact on the 2016 election.

But getting caught up in this mess with one of your country's greatest enemies seems pretty serious no? Reasonable Americans could have serious apprehension about this story without being leftists.

And now that I've written all this I can't remember how it is relevant to this situation.

Edited November 6, 2020 by KipWellsFan

[Balta1701]

Just now, Texsox said:

So why did liberal cities get hit first?

Lots of travel, particularly coming from Italy. Denser populations. No one knew how to respond correctly because the government wasn't giving the correct information that they had.

Now, everyone knows how to respond, but one person is telling people not to follow those rules, and conservative counties are following him.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, KipWellsFan said:

All that being said, I don't know if any of this had any material impact on the 2016 election.

The steady drumbeat of leaked emails was an entire free campaign handed to his party and the press just fell for every single story about it for weeks. For 80,000 votes spread among 3 states? Easy. 

[Danny Dravot]

@KipWellsFan I think that's a very fair and accurate summary of that situation. Personally lean right and I don't think it's the rantings of a crazed leftist at all. Kudos.

[Texsox]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Lots of travel, particularly coming from Italy. Denser populations. No one knew how to respond correctly because the government wasn't giving the correct information that they had.

Now, everyone knows how to respond, but one person is telling people not to follow those rules, and conservative counties are following him.

We're still seeing cases in liberal cities. I believe diseases don't care if you're liberal or conservative anymore than if you are gay or straight.

[KipWellsFan]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

The steady drumbeat of leaked emails was an entire free campaign handed to his party and the press just fell for every single story about it for weeks. For 80,000 votes spread among 3 states? Easy. 

Very well could be. But I honestly don't know the nitty gritty of all that stuff.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Texsox said:

We're still seeing cases in liberal cities. I believe diseases don't care if you're liberal or conservative anymore than if you are gay or straight.

No, but they care whether the person next to you is wearing a mask and social distancing. 

Can you name one prominent Republican discouraging those things? I'll give you a hint, he hosted an event that produced >40 cases in early October. At the White House.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, KipWellsFan said:

Very well could be. But I honestly don't know the nitty gritty of all that stuff.

The margin in those 3 states was so narrow that the Russian influence and the media's coverage of it easily made a difference, just like a number of factors. I mean, the Comey letter definitely mattered that much also. The voter suppression efforts easily made a difference. Take away any of those things and the election is frighteningly narrow but Trump loses.

[pcq]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The margin in those 3 states was so narrow that the Russian influence and the media's coverage of it easily made a difference, just like a number of factors. I mean, the Comey letter definitely mattered that much also. The voter suppression efforts easily made a difference. Take away any of those things and the election is frighteningly narrow but Trump loses.

Not to forget Fred Flintstone laundered the report and  Mueller said you cannot indict a sitting president. 

[Soxbadger]

16 minutes ago, Danny Dravot said:

@KipWellsFan I think that's a very fair and accurate summary of that situation. Personally lean right and I don't think it's the rantings of a crazed leftist at all. Kudos.

Also that doesnt mean Trump "stole" the election.

Americans still bear responsibility for going to the polls and voting for him.

Sometimes in sports their is a bad call or whatever, but you gotta play through it.

[caulfield12]

Shocking out of McConnell... 

 

As a stream of key swing state votes begins to turn the election in presidential nominee Joe Biden's favor, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., wasted no time in signaling that he would block potential progressive nominees for Cabinet positions if the GOP keeps its grip on the upper chamber.

A source close to the majority leader told Axios that a Republican-controlled Senate would work with Biden to confirm centrist nominees but reject so-called "radical progressives" or other individuals who rankle conservatives.

The source said Republicans would do all they could to limit a Biden agenda, adding: "It's going to be armed camps."

source: Yahoonews.com   Axios

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

Also that doesnt mean Trump "stole" the election.

Americans still bear responsibility for going to the polls and voting for him.

Sometimes in sports their is a bad call or whatever, but you gotta play through it.

Like actually giving one speech in WI and not fighting for MI and PA until the last 2-3 weeks.   Millions spent trying to turn purple states. 

 

NEW DEVELOPMENT: Pro-Trump protesters convinced the fix is in

https://www.ajc.com/politics/election/pro-trump-protesters-convinced-the-fix-is-in/FL44ZCNCCFGIPEL5UEEWSLO6DI/

 

Edited November 6, 2020 by caulfield12

[Danny Dravot]

9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Shocking out of McConnell... 

 

As a stream of key swing state votes begins to turn the election in presidential nominee Joe Biden's favor, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., wasted no time in signaling that he would block potential progressive nominees for Cabinet positions if the GOP keeps its grip on the upper chamber.

A source close to the majority leader told Axios that a Republican-controlled Senate would work with Biden to confirm centrist nominees but reject so-called "radical progressives" or other individuals who rankle conservatives.

The source said Republicans would do all they could to limit a Biden agenda, adding: "It's going to be armed camps."

source: Yahoonews.com   Axios

And? This is exactly how balance of power is supposed to work. As long as they're not roadblocking every nominee just for the hell of it, I see no problem. If Americans wanted Bernie Sanders as Sec of Labor, they'd have given Dems the Senate.

[caulfield12]

"Trump won. I have no doubt,” said Youngo, one of about 100 pro-Trump protesters, who gathered Thursday afternoon outside State Farm Arena chanting “Stop the cheat!” Inside, poll workers feverishly counted ballots, most coming from heavily Democratic parts of the state favoring Biden.

Youngo, who lives in DeKalb County, said she doesn’t trust the process.

“Georgia is a red state,” she said. “The truth is President Trump was way ahead. Now they’re suddenly finding all these Biden votes.”

[KipWellsFan]

43 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Technically (and maybe this is just due to turn out), it is interesting, but I believe I heard a stat from one of the talking heads today (don't remember whom) but Trump had the biggest share of minority vote from any republican since Richard Nixon.  They actually said - as they are analyzing - the place where Trump got worse (2020 vs. 2016) was the white male left him (that isn't to say there wern't plenty of white males who voted for Trump - just not at the same ratio as 2016).  

Can we really say this when so much of the vote still isn't counted? By my rough estimate there are like 5 million uncounted votes in New York and California alone.

I'm not saying it's untrue. But I would want to see the evidence on this one. We might need to wait for a more final vote count for this type of assessment.

[Texsox]

If Biden wins the politicians take over. And that's a good thing. 

Gingrich and Trump will be viewed as the architects of the 21st Century Republican Party. 

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Danny Dravot said:

And? This is exactly how balance of power is supposed to work. As long as they're not roadblocking every nominee just for the hell of it, I see no problem. If Americans wanted Bernie Sanders as Sec of Labor, they'd have given Dems the Senate.

They should just let McConnell appoint them all and then blame him in 2022 when everything has gone to all hell in a handbasket. 

This would be the first President with an oppositional Senate in most everyone's lifetime. 

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, KipWellsFan said:

Can we really say this when so much of the vote still isn't counted? By my rough estimate there are like 5 million uncounted votes in New York and California alone.

I'm not saying it's untrue. But I would want to see the evidence on this one. We might need to wait for a more final vote count for this type of assessment.

That's being stated based on exit polls. You can't connect ballots to demographics without knowing what's on them.

[joejoesox]

[pettie4sox]

51 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

This is true. It wasn't due to turnout, its based on percentages. Trump's numbers among blacks and Latinos were record high for a Republican.

Probably because Kamala and Biden through a bunch of their folk in jail.  I for that very reason didn't vote for Biden.

[Soxbadger]

4 minutes ago, Danny Dravot said:

And? This is exactly how balance of power is supposed to work. As long as they're not roadblocking every nominee just for the hell of it, I see no problem. If Americans wanted Bernie Sanders as Sec of Labor, they'd have given Dems the Senate.

I dont think its fair to say Americans could have done something. Dems likely will win the popular vote by millions of votes.

Hopefully some Republicans are reasonable and bring back normalcy. 

We do better when we work together.