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Japan's top SP could be coming to MLB


southsider2k5

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Just now, southsider2k5 said:

 

The best part of this article is right here:

Two MLB scouts who have a history covering Sugano project him as a strong No. 3 type starter in the majors. Even in what is supposed to be a tight-fisted market, most clubs want to add starting pitching and a few such as the Blue Jays, Giants and White Sox are expected to be a little bolder financially than others.

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4 hours ago, Vulture said:

According to this 2018 article, "he may have to wait until he becomes an international free agent in '21" because the Giants don't post players. I think he would just be an unrestricted FA.  

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/tomoyuki-sugano

If he’s a free agent next year, I have no idea why he would try to come over into this mess. Go play one more year and sign after the lockout ends.

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I've seen a lot of Sugano.

Some thoughts:

- "The Giants don't post players" is true, except when it isn't -- Shun Yamaguchi was posted just last year, and it turned out it was because it was a provision in his FA contract, but it also turned out that a lot of people in the Giants org DIDN'T EVEN KNOW ABOUT the provision. It's entirely possible Sugano also has such a provision, whether it came before or after we all learned about Yamaguchi, as he has been clamoring to be posted for years. Also, there is a near consensus perception among people that cover NPB that the Sugano situation could be viewed as an outlier for the Giants because the guy has been such a hero for them; he's been perceived to have "paid his dues" to the organization. Not only has he been massively successful for them, but he actually got drafted initially by a different team and refused to sign because he wanted to play for the Giants. He sat out a year and got drafted by the Giants the next season, which has become a sort of legendary tidbit in his story to show how much he respected the team. The Giants understand that two-way success stories like Hideki Matsui help their brand. Also, the Giants have clinched their pennant and a trip to the Japan Series, and especially if they win it all, it could be seen as an appropriate "final contribution." All in all, I give it even odds that he's posted. 

- "He should just wait until he's a free agent next year" makes sense in the context of MLB ball, but less so in NPB. Filing for free agency is actually seen as a bad look in NPB, or at least as casting shade upon your team. Unlike here where it's a default and seen as "just business," there's an expectation to have loyalty to your club, and as a result, almost literally everyone who files for domestic or international free agency ends up leaving their team, because if they were gonna stay, they would have negotiated an extension already. Given the mutually respectable dynamic between Sugano and the Giants, being posted could be a much more desirable outcome for his legacy than resorting to filing for free agency. 

- Sugano is legit. I would describe his pitching style as a poor man's Roy Halladay, in that he relies heavily on a slider and a split/change that tunnel extremely well but slash diagonally in different directions. He sits low 90's but can go to the mid-90's when he needs to. He is definitely a command control guy, but commands like five pitches, so he strikes guys out. The raw stuff is a tick below Tanaka when he came over, but the control and polish is equal or better. The velo is a tick below Kikuchi, but the arsenal is wider and the control is two ticks better. He's substantially better than Yamaguchi ever was. The ONE thing that really gives me pause is that, like a lot of NPB pitchers, he throws a lot of high breaking balls. It's possible that with the current uppercut meta, that isn't as dangerous as it used to be, but I can't help but be worried about that.

- He has been pitching with a partially torn UCL for many years. Take that for what it's worth. He has started to become injury prone in non-arm ways over the past few seasons.

- Dude is an absolute gamer. Tons of swagger and a major competitor.

I would love to see this guy on the White Sox, though I have to admit that part of it is that I'm an NPB fanboi. I agree with the #3 projection, and I think with the wide arsenal and expert control, it's safe if he's healthy. That said, there's injury risk, he's on the wrong side of 30, and with any NPB transfer, you have to remember that the ball is different and that can affect different guys in different ways.

Also, the best pitching prospect in the NPB is Yoshinobu Yamamoto. I don't know why no one is talking about him. 

Edited by Eminor3rd
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