The Blake Snell Thread

[poppysox]

15 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If budgets didn’t exist I’m sure this would more or less be the plan.

I am well aware of budgets and that is why I have advocated a willingness to accept much less than the top tier FAs.  I will not be unhappy if we simply upgrade RF, sign a top pitcher for the pen, and a couple of Q type starters for depth.  What I have been emphatic about is not trading top prospects.  I actually believe the FO has the money to sign Bauer and/or Springer.  Of course, none of us really know what JR is willing to spend.  I am of course hopeful.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

20 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

So you think they will stay pat this offseason?

I already gave one answer to this but I didn't address what i think the Sox specifically will do as I lumped them in with the rest of the teams. The honest answer is I don't know . If staying pat means the same payroll as last year that means they have moves to make since they lost about $30M worth of payroll if both Mazara and Rodon get non tendered. Raises for some guys lower that to around $25M .

So the real question is will they go beyond that $25M ? The answer to this should be yes if they are seriously about having a good chance at the World Series . However all the "money will be spent" talk was pre- Covid. My best guess is they disappoint us and start talking about adding at the trade deadline  when the vaccination picture should be much clearer if not already resolved.

Of course they could shock me and sign Bauer which is what I would do.

[poppysox]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t know what this means.

It means that it takes a long time to develop a system rich in prospects like we currently have.  We probably have 20 players currently with star potential to one degree or another.  Those prospects were paid for with years of losses and the trading of stars like Sale, Q and Eaton.  I don't want them traded away when there are free agents available to fill available holes.  

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, turnin' two said:

So just for the record, Snell has thrown 7 or more innings one time since the beginning of the 2019 season.  And that was in April 2019.  Some of that is the Rays, but some is elevated pitch counts.  

He has made 30 starts exactly one time in his career.  I know wins don't matter, but he has won 7 or more games 1 time in his career.  That speaks of his inability to go deep into games to me.  He has pitched more than 130 innings once in his career.  He has struck out more than 150 once.  He has had a WHIP beneath 1.2 once.  The year he won the Cy Young, his ERA was more than a run lower than his FIP. 

He had one magnificent season, and has been a good pitcher otherwise.  He isn't the guy Sale was  when the Sox traded him, he isn't even close, and no one should make that mistake.  

Honestly, at what the price would likely be, I'm going to pass.  And not only because trading with the Rays is horrifying.  

I don't believe it is the ability to go late into games, but rather the computers telling TB to take him out.  In 2020, he trailed the leading innings man on Tampa by 7 IP.  In 2019 he had the injury, but in 2018, he led the team with 180 IP.  The Rays just don't have guys going very deep.  The only pitcher they had go over 200 innings in the last 5 years was Archer, who hit a max of 201.

[southsider2k5]

52 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

1) We aren't signing Bauer

2) We aren't going to trade for Snell, we aren't that loaded with prospects or money to make something like that smart.

3) We aren't going to ever acquire or sign Conforto. Mets will keep him with their billions of dollars now. 

4) We are likely going to get 2 B or C level starting pitchers this offseason. Or more likely, trade for Lynn.

5) For the OF, Springer seems like a possibility, but more in the 15% chance range than over 50%. Lots of teams seem in on him, Mets with billions of dollars, Blue Jays need a prime CF.

 

Honestly, this offseason fucking blows for the W'Sox. 

Our time was with signing Harper. 

Welp, see you next year!

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

I don't believe it is the ability to go late into games, but rather the computers telling TB to take him out.  In 2020, he trailed the leading innings man on Tampa by 7 IP.  In 2019 he had the injury, but in 2018, he led the team with 180 IP.  The Rays just don't have guys going very deep.  The only pitcher they had go over 200 innings in the last 5 years was Archer, who hit a max of 201.

This may be part of Tampa's general philosophy on keeping pitchers healthier and keeping value high and taking them out before they get hit hard. I'm more concerned about trading with TB than most organizations. I really don't think Snell goes anywhere this off season . Tampa might sniff around and see how desperate teams are for him but ultimately they don't trade him before the start of the season.

[maloney.adam]

If they sign Springer, I don’t think we’re going to be trading for Snell. I think it will be either Lynn, or Darvish. I know a lot of people are high on Musgrove but there are better backend SP’s on the market that we can sign.

Edited November 24, 2020 by maloney.adam

[turnin' two]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

I don't believe it is the ability to go late into games, but rather the computers telling TB to take him out.  In 2020, he trailed the leading innings man on Tampa by 7 IP.  In 2019 he had the injury, but in 2018, he led the team with 180 IP.  The Rays just don't have guys going very deep.  The only pitcher they had go over 200 innings in the last 5 years was Archer, who hit a max of 201.

It is both.  As I referenced, it is definitely Tampa to a degree, but he was also over 90 pitches in 5 innings in nearly half of his starts this year (5/11).  That's more than a quick computer related hook.

In 2019 he was over 90 in 5 innings 4 times, but he had several starts of fewer than 5 innings (9 starts).  And in those 9 starts, he was over 20 pitches per inning ( rate of 100 pitches in 5 innings) in 7 of those starts.  Nine is a lot of starts to not make it 5 innings, by the way, another red flag.  

While some of it is certainly the way Tampa operates, he just  doesn't seem like a guy that will regularly go deep in games to me.   

[Orlando]

??

[Rey21]

1 minute ago, Orlando said:

??

Just don’t see Hahn trading Vaughn AND Kopech which is where talks begin. I think the Padres or Dodgers are more prepared to give up their top guys for Snell than the Sox are. 

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, Rey21 said:

Just don’t see Hahn trading Vaughn AND Kopech which is where talks begin. I think the Padres or Dodgers are more prepared to give up their top guys for Snell than the Sox are. 

The more I think about it, the more I'd be glad to do a deal around Kopech and Madrigal. That's where I'm at, and that's as high as it goes. 

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

The more I think about it, the more I'd be glad to do a deal around Kopech and Madrigal. That's where I'm at, and that's as high as it goes. 

Tampa can do much better

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

Tampa can do much better

Then I'd pass. 

[maloney.adam]

10 minutes ago, Rey21 said:

Just don’t see Hahn trading Vaughn AND Kopech which is where talks begin. I think the Padres or Dodgers are more prepared to give up their top guys for Snell than the Sox are. 

Than we’re not going to outcompete against the Dodgers for World Series Championships. I thought that’s what the point of this rebuild was, to win championships. I’m not saying we should give up all of our top guys but atleast one or two of them to get a player back that will help us achieve that goal of winning championships. 

Edited November 24, 2020 by maloney.adam

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

13 minutes ago, Orlando said:

??

OH MY GOD!!!

[ron883]

Look, the Sox saved a ton of money during the rebuild years. Hahn specifically said that saved money would be spent during the contending years. I don't want some cop out, bullshit excuse about the pandemic draining that saved money. Sox need to pony the fuck up and sign Springer or Bauer, and a less free agent. Don't empty the damn farm in a trade.

The Rays don't often lose trades. I don't want to trade with them TBH. 

Edited November 24, 2020 by Yearnin' for Yermin

[Sox80]

1 minute ago, maloney.adam said:

Than we’re not going to outcompete against the Dodgers for World Series Championships. I thought that’s what the point of this rebuild was. To win championships. 

Not necessarily.  The hope is kopech and crochet become Tor starter's.  In my opinion the sox need to bridge the gap until they are stretched out.  I think they need to keep them both to compete with the big boys like the Dodgers and Yankees in the future.  Just my two sense .

[Harold's Leg Lift]

8 minutes ago, fathom said:

Tampa can do much better

Easily.

[ron883]

9 minutes ago, fathom said:

Tampa can do much better

Those are 2 top 50 prospects that are MLB ready. It's a pretty damn good headliner for a deal.

[ron883]

1 minute ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Easily.

Let's be real, you think a piece of shit is worth more than Madrigal. 

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Look, the Sox saved a ton of money during the rebuild years. Hahn specifically said that saved money would be spent during the contending years. I don't want some cop out, bullshit excuse about the pandemic draining that saved money. Sox need to pony the fuck up and sign Springer or Bauer, and a less free agent. Don't empty the damn farm in a trade.

The Rays don't often lose trades. I don't want to trade with them TBH. 

TLR wants two of whatever you are drinking. 

[maloney.adam]

11 minutes ago, Sox80 said:

Not necessarily.  The hope is kopech and crochet become Tor starter's.  In my opinion the sox need to bridge the gap until they are stretched out.  I think they need to keep them both to compete with the big boys like the Dodgers and Yankees in the future.  Just my two sense .

From what Hahn said in the end of the year presser their window is open now but I see your point of view. Quite frankly, I would prefer them to sign a right fielder and a pitcher for the back end of the rotation in free agency then trade for a top of the rotation pitcher after they fill those holes. Possibly for Lynn. People are high on Musgrove but I don’t see him being a top of the rotation pitcher. 

Edited November 24, 2020 by maloney.adam

[ron883]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

TLR wants two of whatever you are drinking. 

First off, he would probably have 7 or 8.

Haha all I'm saying is they saved ALL that money from the rebuild years. All teams suffered this year. The Sox had a lot of cash left over, though. Completely flopping during free agency is unacceptable here. They need to spend some money, and it sounds like they will with the Springer rumors. 

Edited November 24, 2020 by Yearnin' for Yermin

[BigHurt3515]

Not going to happen, and would cost too much 

[Jack Parkman]

10 minutes ago, BigHurt3515 said:

Not going to happen, and would cost too much 

I learned at SoxTalk that JR thinks championships are too expensive, and that he's just not as dumb as Bill Wirtz to say it out loud.