Dodgers sign Bauer (3/102, opt-outs, 40-45-17)

[maloney.adam]

14 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Thanks, agreed. Unless there is a fundamental change in how Reinsdorf operates a team, or announces a $40m-$60m increase in payroll on a go forward basis, not sure why anyone thinks he is signing with the White Sox. 

I tried watching one of his videos posted here, and turned it off a few minutes in, with about a half hour remaining.

Haven't watched enough to judge whether he is a dbag based on his videos, but one only needs to watch his actions/antics on the field or in the clubhouse to reach that conclusion.

 

Wow he threw that ball for a homerun. The centerfielder didn’t even move. Luckily nobody got hurt.

Edited December 20, 2020 by maloney.adam

[RagahRagah]

11 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

He's old for a MLB player and definitely on the downward trending end of the aging spectrum. He's the type of player you expect to consistently lose value over the next several seasons. This is the biggest reason it was a bad trade.

I do not disagree there. I said that as soon as the trade was made. But acting as though Lynn is not a good pitcher having a surge of his career is dishonest.

[Dam8610]

10 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

I do not disagree there. I said that as soon as the trade was made. But acting as though Lynn is not a good pitcher having a surge of his career is dishonest.

It seems unsustainable as evidenced by his 2020. The Sox paid a 5-7 WAR price for what is likely to be a 3 WAR pitcher, which has been my point all along.

[Jerksticks]

50 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

It seems unsustainable as evidenced by his 2020. The Sox paid a 5-7 WAR price for what is likely to be a 3 WAR pitcher, which has been my point all along.

How on earth did we pay a 5-7 WAR price 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

It seems unsustainable as evidenced by his 2020. The Sox paid a 5-7 WAR price for what is likely to be a 3 WAR pitcher, which has been my point all along.

 I think by the reactions of the board it seems pretty equal for and against the trade which tells me it did what trades are supposed to do. Equal value for equal value. There's no such thing as a perfect trade. Some will like it and some won't. They needed a guy who showed he can be a Top 10 type pitcher in the AL and that's what they got for a year because that's seemed to be the only way to get that kind of pitcher and not give up a lot of prospects and not add a lot to the payroll. 

I don't hope you are wrong. I hope Lynn lives up to his billing and Dunning fulfills his potential. But most of all I hope Lynn can get us deep into the playoffs while we watch Kopech and others accumulate the innings they need to fulfill their potential under the guidance of Katz.

[NotHahn]

4 hours ago, ScooterMcGee said:

Not me. If you're a dick, I don't care who you are, get off my team. Puig was a stud talent-wise for the Dodgers for a few years there. If I were a Dodgers fan, I would have LOATHED him. And that stupid tongue thing he always did was so annoying. 

And if Trout was a "dick" would you want him on the Sox? Would you loath the best player to ever play for the Sox?

[South Side Hit Men]

3 minutes ago, NotHahn said:

And if Trout was a "dick" would you want him on the Sox? Would you loath the best player to ever play for the Sox?

Give Tony a few more weeks and a blockbuster trade with Anaheim* and he will get'er done.

2021 Chicago White Sox

RF A Eaton LF K Schwarber CF M Trout 1B A Pujols  DH  J Turner 3B J Donaldson C Y Molina SS C Owings 2B N Madrigal

OF A Engel DH A Vaughn INF D Mendick C T Flowers

SP T Bauer SP L Lynn SP D Keuchel SP A Wainwright SP M Kopech 

CL L Hendricks SU A Bummer  SU T Rosenthal SU  G Crochet RP D Robertson RP Z Burdi RP M Foster RP J Fry

40 Man: C Z Collins 1B J Burger 1B G Sheets INF C Owings OF A Duvall OF B Rutherford SP D Cease SP J Stiever SP C Anderson SP/RP C McHugh RP C Heuer RP T Johnson RP J Lambert RP E Marshall

* = Anaheim receives L. Giolito, T. Anderson, L Robert and J. Abreu for $200M, M. Trout and A Pujols. Trades E Jimenez to Minnesota for J. Donaldson. Signs FA K Schwarber, J Turner, Y Molina, C Owings, T Flowers, T Bauer, A Wainwright, L Hendricks, T Rosenthal, D Robertson, A DuVall, C Anderson and C. McHugh.

[Dam8610]

15 hours ago, Vulture said:

The other thing we can do is look at his last 32 actual starts rather than 11 actual starts and 21 hypothetical starts. Based on the previous 21 starts its not in fact safe to say it would have been over 5 WAR

The only reason I can think of to nearly double the influence of a player's worst season in the last 3 is that you have an agenda to devalue that player. There's no other logical reason to do it.

4 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

How on earth did we pay a 5-7 WAR price 

As I've stated many times on this and other threads, Dane Dunning projects by Steamer estimates to be worth 2.4 WAR in 2021. Steamer is very conservative in its projections, and this is with Steamer projecting 149 IP for Dunning. If he's able to increase his IP and maintain the performance level Steamer projects, he becomes a 3 WAR SP. If he can slightly improve his performance while also improving his IP, he becomes a 4 WAR SP. Given that he's entering his age 26 season, both of those outcomes are very attainable. Texas has 6 years of control on Dunning, so he could easily be worth 15-25 WAR for them. I wouldn't give up that kind of asset for a player with one year of control, but were I forced to, I'd want the player I was getting back to be a 5+ WAR player for that year.

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

 I think by the reactions of the board it seems pretty equal for and against the trade which tells me it did what trades are supposed to do. Equal value for equal value. There's no such thing as a perfect trade. Some will like it and some won't. They needed a guy who showed he can be a Top 10 type pitcher in the AL and that's what they got for a year because that's seemed to be the only way to get that kind of pitcher and not give up a lot of prospects and not add a lot to the payroll. 

I don't hope you are wrong. I hope Lynn lives up to his billing and Dunning fulfills his potential. But most of all I hope Lynn can get us deep into the playoffs while we watch Kopech and others accumulate the innings they need to fulfill their potential under the guidance of Katz.

I don't see fan reactions as a good gauge of value, because part of that relies on how knowledgable the fan is and what they care about. I want the Sox to win in 2021, for example, but not at the cost of 2022-2025. That's why I'm critical of the move. Another fan who only cares about winning in 2021 might like the move, but it doesn't make my concern any less valid.

[Flash]

I like Dunning alot but the notion that he will be a 4 WAR SP in '21 is way overly optimistic.  The reality is Lynn is an effective and affordable top half of any rotation arm. For '21 and possibly beyond (assuming extension), he is just a better pitcher than Dunning and no amount of aggressive assumptions re: Dunnings potential performance metrics change the fact that we are a much better team with Lynn on the mound.   

[Dam8610]

5 minutes ago, Flash said:

I like Dunning alot but the notion that he will be a 4 WAR SP in '21 is way overly optimistic.  The reality is Lynn is an effective and affordable top half of any rotation arm. For '21 and possibly beyond (assuming extension), he is just a better pitcher than Dunning and no amount of aggressive assumptions re: Dunnings potential performance metrics change the fact that we are a much better team with Lynn on the mound.   

That is overly optimistic and not what I was saying at all. It's less optimistic to think it could happen in any of 2022-2026, when the Rangers will have Dunning and the Sox may have nothing from this trade.

[Balta1701]

28 minutes ago, Flash said:

I like Dunning alot but the notion that he will be a 4 WAR SP in '21 is way overly optimistic.  The reality is Lynn is an effective and affordable top half of any rotation arm. For '21 and possibly beyond (assuming extension), he is just a better pitcher than Dunning and no amount of aggressive assumptions re: Dunnings potential performance metrics change the fact that we are a much better team with Lynn on the mound.   

Lance Lynn in 2019 was absolutely a “top half of any rotation” arm, but that was the first time in his career he has been that way. if you want evidence for that - how many number 2 starters sign 3 year, $30 million contracts? That’s “back of the rotation, number 4 or 5 starter, innings eater” money, which is probably what we’d  have described Lynn as prior to 2019. 

So the question remains...did Lynn pull a Charlie Morton and find something that made him vastly better late in his career, or did he just have a serious career year that he will not replicate again? Last years peripherals look a lot like the other years of his career outside of 2019, but his ERA is low due to a low BABIP. Could he have kept up a top of the rotation season if it was a full year? 

If you got the Lynn from 2019 and paid Dunning for him, that’s an understandable trade. If you got the numbers from 2018, you wouldn’t be too happy.

[Flash]

Its conceivable he found the fountain of youth or his last 2 years are an aberration. Either way...I'd much rather hand him the ball every 5th day than Dunning. Are you saying you wouldn't?

[Balta1701]

10 minutes ago, Flash said:

Its conceivable he found the fountain of youth or his last 2 years are an aberration. Either way...I'd much rather hand him the ball every 5th day than Dunning. Are you saying you wouldn't?

It's not even the fountain of youth - he wasn't as good in his youth as he was in 2019. He would need to have found something he never had before. He could have! But every assertion that he's a top 10 pitcher in baseball, or that he's a top half of any rotation pitcher - they all assume he has done so.

Lots of big ifs here. If he's the pitcher he was in 2019, yes I would rather hand him the ball every 5th day than Dunning. If he's the pitcher he was in 2018, then very real chance Dunning looks better on an average day, and he's being paid $9.3 million for that, so I'd much rather have given the ball to Dunning and had another $9 million to spend. And of course, if Dunning continues growing as a pitcher, a very good chance we'd wish we could hand the ball to him in 2022. And if Lynn isn't the pitcher he was in 2019 there's a very good chance we'll hate any extension given to him.

It all comes down to this. If Lynn is the pitcher we saw in 2019, then both the trade and any extension are pretty well justified. If not...well there you go.

[Flash]

We are in violent agreement

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Give Tony a few more weeks and a blockbuster trade with Anaheim* and he will get'er done.

2021 Chicago White Sox

RF A Eaton LF K Schwarber CF M Trout 1B A Pujols  DH  J Turner 3B J Donaldson C Y Molina SS C Owings 2B N Madrigal

OF A Engel DH A Vaughn INF D Mendick C T Flowers

SP T Bauer SP L Lynn SP D Keuchel SP A Wainwright SP M Kopech 

CL L Hendricks SU A Bummer  SU T Rosenthal SU  G Crochet RP D Robertson RP Z Burdi RP M Foster RP J Fry

40 Man: C Z Collins 1B J Burger 1B G Sheets INF C Owings OF A Duvall OF B Rutherford SP D Cease SP J Stiever SP C Anderson SP/RP C McHugh RP C Heuer RP T Johnson RP J Lambert RP E Marshall

* = Anaheim receives L. Giolito, T. Anderson, L Robert and J. Abreu for $200M, M. Trout and A Pujols. Trades E Jimenez to Minnesota for J. Donaldson. Signs FA K Schwarber, J Turner, Y Molina, C Owings, T Flowers, T Bauer, A Wainwright, L Hendricks, T Rosenthal, D Robertson, A DuVall, C Anderson and C. McHugh.

Why do you feel compelled to post such garbage?

[South Side Hit Men]

52 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It's not even the fountain of youth - he wasn't as good in his youth as he was in 2019. He would need to have found something he never had before. He could have! But every assertion that he's a top 10 pitcher in baseball, or that he's a top half of any rotation pitcher - they all assume he has done so.

Lots of big ifs here. If he's the pitcher he was in 2019, yes I would rather hand him the ball every 5th day than Dunning. If he's the pitcher he was in 2018, then very real chance Dunning looks better on an average day, and he's being paid $9.3 million for that, so I'd much rather have given the ball to Dunning and had another $9 million to spend. And of course, if Dunning continues growing as a pitcher, a very good chance we'd wish we could hand the ball to him in 2022. And if Lynn isn't the pitcher he was in 2019 there's a very good chance we'll hate any extension given to him.

It all comes down to this. If Lynn is the pitcher we saw in 2019, then both the trade and any extension are pretty well justified. If not...well there you go.

Good summary.

The primary reason this and Eaton deals were pulled were to avoid spending substantial money in the open market.

I don't think the Sox should sign a Springer or Bauer with their current self imposed payroll limitations. One mistake or substantial injury does not allow you to recover.

That said, I would have been far more comfortable with a Pederson / Bradley Jr. signing at 2/$20M, and signing one or two SPs (C Kluber, T Walker, C Quintana, G Richards A Wainwright's) on the open market.

For a trade, the better alternative would be to trade for a quality ML ready pitcher like Joe Musgrove controllable for years, coupled with a Pederson/Bradley Jr. signing.

They still need at least one backend RP, and should definitely consider getting a $2-$3M catcher in the M Zunino defense first mold and/or a one year $5M-$7M DH rental like Schwarber.

[Vulture]

4 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

The only reason I can think of to nearly double the influence of a player's worst season in the last 3 is that you have an agenda to devalue that player. There's no other logical reason to do it.

It’s far more logical looking at his actual performance over his last 32 starts than presuming a hypothetical performance over 21 nonexistent starts

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

 

It all comes down to this. If Lynn is the pitcher we saw in 2019, then both the trade and any extension are pretty well justified. If not...well there you go.

How come there is only one scenario that makes the trade justifiable ? There are variables to performance for both Lynn and Dunning.

[RagahRagah]

12 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

It seems unsustainable as evidenced by his 2020. The Sox paid a 5-7 WAR price for what is likely to be a 3 WAR pitcher, which has been my point all along.

Worst part is even if he has another great year the only way it ends up being worth it is if Dunning busts or Lynn is signed to an extension and stays hot during that period. Or Sox win the WS.

ATM I don't particularly like any of those odds right now.

[Dam8610]

2 hours ago, Vulture said:

It’s far more logical looking at his actual performance over his last 32 starts than presuming a hypothetical performance over 21 nonexistent starts

What makes that more logical, especially if you're already dinging him for his subpar Lance Lynn-like 2019? It's effectively double counting 21 below average (for Bauer) starts in an attempt to confirmation bias your way to a point. Bauer had 2.5 WAR in 11 starts over 60 games. I think it's more than fair to say that in a 162 game, 32 start season, he would've been above 5 WAR, especially when considering that extrapolation leads to 6.8 WAR.

[ScootsMcGoots]

14 hours ago, NotHahn said:

And if Trout was a "dick" would you want him on the Sox? Would you loath the best player to ever play for the Sox?

Edit: Sure wouldn't want him on the team. But hes not a dick.

Edited December 21, 2020 by ScooterMcGee

[bmags]

I just want to add some context to the fWAR numbers because I felt it helpful.

Season | fWAR | Lynn's Qualified STarter rank by fWAR (2011 removed as it was partial)
2012 | 2.6 | 39
2013 | 3.3 | 34
2014 | 3.6 | 20
2015 | 3.2 | 32
2016 | (injured DNQ)
2017 | 1.2 |51
2018 | 2.8 | 33
2019 | 6.3 | 3
2020 | 1.5 |21

While 3 WAR might not seem that crazy, for much of his career Lynn has been a top 30 pitcher. Last year he was sandwiched by Keuchel and Carrasco. in 2018 he was at 2.9 WAR and Greinke was at 2.9 despite 200 IP.

I expect Lynn will be a top 30 pitcher and think he'll be a top 20 pitcher, and hope he'll be a top 10. He's proven he can be those things.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

I just want to add some context to the fWAR numbers because I felt it helpful.

Season | fWAR | Lynn's Qualified STarter rank by fWAR (2011 removed as it was partial)
2012 | 2.6 | 39
2013 | 3.3 | 34
2014 | 3.6 | 20
2015 | 3.2 | 32
2016 | (injured DNQ)
2017 | 1.2 |51
2018 | 2.8 | 33
2019 | 6.3 | 3
2020 | 1.5 |21

While 3 WAR might not seem that crazy, for much of his career Lynn has been a top 30 pitcher. Last year he was sandwiched by Keuchel and Carrasco. in 2018 he was at 2.9 WAR and Greinke was at 2.9 despite 200 IP.

I expect Lynn will be a top 30 pitcher and think he'll be a top 20 pitcher, and hope he'll be a top 10. He's proven he can be those things.

Actually only 3 times was he top 30.  But I too hope he can be top 20.  If he isn't top 20, it seems like it could be a bad trade.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Actually only 3 times was he top 30.  But I too hope he can be top 20.  If he isn't top 20, it seems like it could be a bad trade.

Ok

"I expect him to be top 35"

 

[Vulture]

13 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

What makes that more logical, especially if you're already dinging him for his subpar Lance Lynn-like 2019? It's effectively double counting 21 below average (for Bauer) starts in an attempt to confirmation bias your way to a point. Bauer had 2.5 WAR in 11 starts over 60 games. I think it's more than fair to say that in a 162 game, 32 start season, he would've been above 5 WAR, especially when considering that extrapolation leads to 6.8 WAR.

I guess than means after Hershiser threw 59 scoreless innings, the most likely outcome was he’d never allow a run again.