Dodgers sign Bauer (3/102, opt-outs, 40-45-17)

[Balta1701]

4 hours ago, bmags said:

I just want to add some context to the fWAR numbers because I felt it helpful.

Season | fWAR | Lynn's Qualified STarter rank by fWAR (2011 removed as it was partial)
2012 | 2.6 | 39
2013 | 3.3 | 34
2014 | 3.6 | 20
2015 | 3.2 | 32
2016 | (injured DNQ)
2017 | 1.2 |51
2018 | 2.8 | 33
2019 | 6.3 | 3
2020 | 1.5 |21

While 3 WAR might not seem that crazy, for much of his career Lynn has been a top 30 pitcher. Last year he was sandwiched by Keuchel and Carrasco. in 2018 he was at 2.9 WAR and Greinke was at 2.9 despite 200 IP.

I expect Lynn will be a top 30 pitcher and think he'll be a top 20 pitcher, and hope he'll be a top 10. He's proven he can be those things.

The question I'd ask in reply is...If I told you you were trading for a consistent 3 WAR pitcher, with good playoff experience, but with only 1 year of control and a $9.3 million salary this year, would you give up Dunning+ for that? I wouldn't. He may not have the playoff experience, but even coming off injury, Dunning is a guy who is under team control for 6 years with several games in the majors where he showed he can get big league pitchers out. He would have a legit shot at putting up 3 WAR this year, and Dunning + an extra $9 million to spend would very likely be preferable when you consider the extra control. He put up 0.7 in 2020 in only 8 starts as a true rookie coming off injury.

This discussion started because someone said that the White Sox had paid the price for a 5-7 WAR pitcher, and I think that's fairly accurate. If you told me I was getting a 6 WAR pitcher, with 1 year of control remaining and a $9.3 million salary, I'd say "Yes Dunning+ is a sensible trade for that", you lose a lot of control but your rotation now has another all star who can match up with anyone." So one of a couple things needs to happen - either Lynn needs to be that 2019 version, or the White Sox need to win the world series so that we say "eh Lynn wasn't all that great but who cares here's a trophy."

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

The question I'd ask in reply is...If I told you you were trading for a consistent 3 WAR pitcher, with good playoff experience, but with only 1 year of control and a $9.3 million salary this year, would you give up Dunning+ for that? I wouldn't. He may not have the playoff experience, but even coming off injury, Dunning is a guy who is under team control for 6 years with several games in the majors where he showed he can get big league pitchers out. He would have a legit shot at putting up 3 WAR this year, and Dunning + an extra $9 million to spend would very likely be preferable when you consider the extra control. He put up 0.7 in 2020 in only 8 starts as a true rookie coming off injury.

This discussion started because someone said that the White Sox had paid the price for a 5-7 WAR pitcher, and I think that's fairly accurate. If you told me I was getting a 6 WAR pitcher, with 1 year of control remaining and a $9.3 million salary, I'd say "Yes Dunning+ is a sensible trade for that", you lose a lot of control but your rotation now has another all star who can match up with anyone." So one of a couple things needs to happen - either Lynn needs to be that 2019 version, or the White Sox need to win the world series so that we say "eh Lynn wasn't all that great but who cares here's a trophy."

If you told me that you'd be leaving out "who for the past two years has been a top pitcher after a pitching change that increased his K% while maintaining his control".

And do I think that the sox paid the price of a 5-7 WAR pitcher? 

There is a big difference between a 5 and 7 war pitcher. 7 WAR pitchers indicate pretty much the best pitchers in baseball. In 2016, there wasn't even one. Chris Sale was a 5 WAR pitcher. Would Dane Dunning, by himself, get Chris Sale if he was on the last year of his deal at 9 million? No.

5 WAR is usually top 10. And looking up and down the list, I kind of find it hard to believe that Dane Dunning alone - a pitcher I like but is a sinker-slider pitcher that throws low 90s and has had TJ, where if he gets it again is almost certainly done - gets them.

But when you look at the top 20 lists, you see more pitchers that Dunning could get. That's about a high 3-4 WAR pitcher. So the idea that the sox paid for essentially a top ten pitcher with Dane Dunning doesn't fit to me.

And yes I'd do this trade even though I respect Dunning being the first sox pitcher in 5 years to come up and know what a strike zone is.

[Jose Abreu]

12 minutes ago, bmags said:

If you told me that you'd be leaving out "who for the past two years has been a top pitcher after a pitching change that increased his K% while maintaining his control".

Thank you. I have been far from thrilled with the Sox offseason, but I feel as though the Lynn conversations are often disingenuous. He is far from the same pitcher he was prior to 2019, and that's a good thing. 

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

If you told me that you'd be leaving out "who for the past two years has been a top pitcher after a pitching change that increased his K% while maintaining his control".

And do I think that the sox paid the price of a 5-7 WAR pitcher? 

There is a big difference between a 5 and 7 war pitcher. 7 WAR pitchers indicate pretty much the best pitchers in baseball. In 2016, there wasn't even one. Chris Sale was a 5 WAR pitcher. Would Dane Dunning, by himself, get Chris Sale if he was on the last year of his deal at 9 million? No.

5 WAR is usually top 10. And looking up and down the list, I kind of find it hard to believe that Dane Dunning alone - a pitcher I like but is a sinker-slider pitcher that throws low 90s and has had TJ, where if he gets it again is almost certainly done - gets them.

But when you look at the top 20 lists, you see more pitchers that Dunning could get. That's about a high 3-4 WAR pitcher. So the idea that the sox paid for essentially a top ten pitcher with Dane Dunning doesn't fit to me.

And yes I'd do this trade even though I respect Dunning being the first sox pitcher in 5 years to come up and know what a strike zone is.

Except, that statement applies to 2019, but not really 2020. In 2020, his K-rate dropped from 10.5/9 to 9.5/9, and his career average is 8.9. His K/bb in 2020 was still better than it was for most of his career, but it was not the exceptional numbers seen in 2019. In the 2020 season, his FIP and xFIP were the 2nd worst of his career.

I cannot say at all that he isn't the pitcher he was in 2019, he absolutely could still be. But 2020 should leave at least some concern.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Except, that statement applies to 2019, but not really 2020. In 2020, his K-rate dropped from 10.5/9 to 9.5/9, and his career average is 8.9. His K/bb in 2020 was still better than it was for most of his career, but it was not the exceptional numbers seen in 2019. In the 2020 season, his FIP and xFIP were the 2nd worst of his career.

I cannot say at all that he isn't the pitcher he was in 2019, he absolutely could still be. But 2020 should leave at least some concern.

His K% was the 2nd best of his starting career. His K% had dipped below 20% in 2017 before figuring it out in 2018 and surging to 29% in 2019 -  a year where he was a top 3 pitcher in baseball.

Last year it settled at 26%, which puts him as the 20th best strikeout pitcher among qualified starters.

But regardless, let's say that we were trading for Lance Lynn after his 2019 season, where he was again, the 3rd best pitcher in baseball. Let's say lynn only had 1 year on his deal.

Do we think that Dane Dunning+Avery Weems gets Lance Lynn? Obviously not.

And if he is the 2020 version for a full season - 200 IP, 4.3 FIP...he's a top 20 pitcher. He's Carlos Carrasco/Zac Gallen, two pitchers that provided the same value as him last year. 

[Dam8610]

3 hours ago, Vulture said:

I guess than means after Hershiser threw 59 scoreless innings, the most likely outcome was he’d never allow a run again.

6.8 WAR seasons have been achieved before by starting pitchers.

[tray]

I would have rather passed on Lynn, then pass on Hendriks, and then over-pay a bit for Bauer.

 Dunning for Lynn looks like  a half @ss Rick  Hahn plug-the-holes move. 

This off-season, cast the net for the big fish Trevor Bauer and reel him in. This is go time.

 

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by tray

[Cashman]

5 hours ago, tray said:

I would have rather passed on Lynn, then pass on Hendriks, and then over-pay a bit for Bauer.

 Dunning for Lynn looks like  a half @ss Rick  Hahn plug-the-holes move. 

This off-season, cast the net for the big fish Trevor Bauer and reel him in. This is go time.

 

 

If Lynn can go 6-7ip per start, I think this is going to be a big get.

[EloyJenkins]

3 hours ago, Cashman said:

If Lynn can go 6-7ip per start, I think this is going to be a big get.

Lynn went 6+ innings every start but one last season (and obviously the last game dud)

[GradMc]

On 12/8/2020 at 2:17 PM, southsideirish71 said:

Their owner realizes that he cant take his wealth to the next plane of existence.  

Unlike the one we"ve been stuck with for the last 40 years

[southsider2k5]

 

[ron883]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

 

Good luck, Trev. You ain't getting that much. 

[Dam8610]

37 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

 

Well, now we know why there's been no movement on Bauer. That's insane. He's not getting the 1 year AAV on a 6 year deal.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

Well, now we know why there's been no movement on Bauer. That's insane. He's not getting the 1 year AAV on a 6 year deal.

 

 

 

[VAfan]

Trevor Bauer isn't getting a 5-6 year deal at any price. He's never been nearly consistent enough for a team to bet on him for that long. 

He should go back to his idea of 1-year contracts, and rent himself out as the guy who gives a contending team a better chance to go all the way, where the team doesn't have to take any long term risk. 

[RagahRagah]

5 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

 

 

 

Trevor really does seem like an ignorant person on top of being a dick.

[tdsox17]

15 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

Trevor really does seem like an ignorant person on top of being a dick.

I've said this before. Is this guy and the circus that surrounds him really worth it?

[poppysox]

40 minutes ago, tdsox17 said:

I've said this before. Is this guy and the circus that surrounds him really worth it?

Not in my opinion.  We have the best team chemistry I've ever seen.  He seems like just the  of type of teammate that could screw that up.

[SCCWS]

1 hour ago, RagahRagah said:

Trevor really does seem like an ignorant person on top of being a dick.

In fairness, a lot of the media rumors posted are BS.  Combine ego driven athletes and media people creating stories to keep their name in the news and the circus develops. 

[wegner]

21 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Not in my opinion.  We have the best team chemistry I've ever seen.  He seems like just the  of type of teammate that could screw that up.

They brought back Eaton and hired La Russa....I'm not sure they are concerned about team chemistry all that much.

[Kyyle23]

Bauer doesn't seem to have problems with players, not that I have seen on Twitter.  He just looooooooooves trolling Media and fans 

[poppysox]

3 minutes ago, wegner said:

They brought back Eaton and hired La Russa....I'm not sure they are concerned about team chemistry all that much.

True.

[Sleepy Harold]

1 hour ago, tdsox17 said:

I've said this before. Is this guy and the circus that surrounds him really worth it?

In the short term, it absolutely would be if he continues to pitch at an elite level. I think anything beyond 3 years is where he'd probably wear out his welcome just due his past behaviors. But the Sox hired TLR knowing the frenzy that would follow, as well as bring back the co-founder of the Drake LaRoache Fan Club, so what's one more circus gonna really do? At least this player has a chance of being very impactful on the field.

[hogan873]

I thought his trolling of Heyman was humorous.  We see/hear the media always speculating and/or reporting about players' demands in free agency, but we rarely if ever see the players saying anything.  Bauer may actually be looking for 5-6 years at $30M+, but that does go against the type of contracts he's looked for in the past.  I still think he signs for a short deal (1-2 years) at $30M+ per.  That still probably keeps the Sox from actively pursuing him, though.

But, that would be a lot of attitude on one team.  Add Puig and you'd have a virtual powder keg. ?

[Quin]

Bauer's a dick and doesn't like the fact that there's just, you know, reporting from places that aren't his shit YouTube channel. If he can't control the narrative he shits himself.

It'd be great to have him. But God is he insufferable.