Dodgers sign Bauer (3/102, opt-outs, 40-45-17)

[Chicago White Sox]

7 hours ago, BigHurt3515 said:

How in the world can the Angels afford anything? I feel like they give out a big contract every year

They have like 12 guys under control for like $143M and then a bunch of pre-arb guys, so all-in they are probably in the $150Ms from what I can gather.  Add in all the other things (player benefits, minor league contracts) and they should be ~$40M shy of the competitive balance tax threshold of $210M.  That’s important to note as the Angels haven’t paid a luxury-type tax since 2004 and I seriously doubt they do so this year.  

Pitching is what they need though and they could squeeze a $30Mish AAV in there, but it would greatly their reduce ability to improve their bullpen or add to their bench.  That would also reflect a payroll increase and all we know is Moreno said the payroll will not decrease next year.  One other wild card is some past beef between Bauer and the Angels pitching coach from their Indians days.  Doubt that is a deal breaker for the Angels, but Bauer’s personality could be a turnoff for some clubs.

[Bob Sacamano]

Fuck it. Throw out the offer you offered Wheeler and work from there.

(sorry to those who see this thread being revived and think there is any updates).

[fathom]

Just now, manbearpuig said:

Fuck it. Throw out the offer you offered Wheeler and work from there.

(sorry to those who see this thread being revived and think there is any updates).

And add another 40 mil total to it 

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

And add another 40 mil total to it 

Sure.

[SonofaRoache]

3 minutes ago, fathom said:

And add another 40 mil total to it 

I think this is the sweet spot and I would definitely do it. 

[iWiN4PreP]

Trevor Bauer is the gem of the offseason. 

The OF has plenty of MEH options. Nothing perfect, but some fine options at decent costs.

SP is bleek after Bauer. Bauer you can get for just $$$, it would be such a big reward.

plz plz plz sign him (I don't think the W'Sox have a chance, but I'm hoping it works out).

[SoxBlanco]

If JR would just suck it up and pay Bauer (which we know won't happen), are we the instant favorites in the AL?  How about favorites to win it all?

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:

If JR would just suck it up and pay Bauer (which we know won't happen), are we the instant favorites in the AL?  How about favorites to win it all?

We already might be the AL favorites IMO.. With Bauer we would still have to be behind the Dodgers mainly due to their track record.

[Soxnfins]

I think this thread can be derailed since we are 99.99999999% sure JR won't pony up for TB. (Pessimism has set in) 

[Dam8610]

25 minutes ago, Soxnfins said:

I think this thread can be derailed since we are 99.99999999% sure JR won't pony up for TB. (Pessimism has set in) 

Why would they need a bona fide ace and Cy Young winner entering his age 30 season for the next 5-6 seasons that they could have for just money? They just paid 6 years of a 2-4 starter for 1 year of an "ace" who really had 1 good season and is entering his age 34 season. Isn't that enough for you?

Edited December 8, 2020 by Dam8610

[southsideirish71]

On 12/5/2020 at 11:38 PM, BigHurt3515 said:

How in the world can the Angels afford anything? I feel like they give out a big contract every year

Their owner realizes that he cant take his wealth to the next plane of existence.  

[SoxBlanco]

15 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Why would they need a bona fide ace and Cy Young winner entering his age 30 season for the next 5-6 seasons that they could have for just money? They just paid 6 years of a 2-4 starter for 1 year of an "ace" who really had 1 good season and is entering his age 34 season. Isn't that enough for you?

If Lynn has had only 1 good season, then how many has Bauer had?

[Bad Hombre]

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

30 minutes ago, Bad Hombre said:

 

Spoiler alert: The White Sox fanbase isn't mentioned. All you meme makers and photoshop experts have your work cut out for you.

[Sambuca]

33 minutes ago, Bad Hombre said:

 

What a douche.  

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

45 minutes ago, Bad Hombre said:

 

Good.

[RagahRagah]

On 12/8/2020 at 2:02 PM, Dam8610 said:

Why would they need a bona fide ace and Cy Young winner entering his age 30 season for the next 5-6 seasons that they could have for just money? They just paid 6 years of a 2-4 starter for 1 year of an "ace" who really had 1 good season and is entering his age 34 season. Isn't that enough for you?

Perhaps you have Lance Lynn confused with some other pitcher. It's the only possible explanation for a statement so false.

[chetkincaid]

I’ll be glad when Bauer signs elsewhere so we can all stop talking about him. Like I’ve said before, I want him to sign with the Angels to see if throwing money at players like that actually works or not. 

[he gone.]

As i mentioned in another thread, signing bauer makes you instant WS favorites. with a rotation of giolito, bauer, keuchel, lynn you have guys who can all go 7+ a game and give you 200ip. Throw Cease at the 5 and Kopech and Crochet outta the pen to build up innings in 2021 and you're all set. don't need any more bullpen help if you have a bauer. 

 

Come playoff time you could go Angels 2005 series with 4-5 complete games in a row. 

 

Spend $35mm on Hendriks, Quintana/Paxton, and a "squint and maybe" DH/LF/RF util type guy? You're still the same team. You move tiers with Bauer, you don't when spending $35mm in another way. 

[Dam8610]

6 hours ago, RagahRagah said:

Perhaps you have Lance Lynn confused with some other pitcher. It's the only possible explanation for a statement so false.

Other than his standout 6.8 WAR season, Lynn has generally been a 3-3.5 WAR pitcher when healthy, and that's not someone you want as your playoff #2. You could acknowledge that Lynn was on a 4 WAR pace last season, and that would be fair, but people on this thread have tried to pretend that Bauer's near 7 WAR 2020 pace doesn't exist or doesn't matter. You can't have it both ways, either Lynn's 2020 matters because 2020 matters or Bauer's 2020 doesn't matter because 2020 doesn't matter.

[Dam8610]

On 12/8/2020 at 2:18 PM, SoxBlanco said:

If Lynn has had only 1 good season, then how many has Bauer had?

2 in the last 3, sandwiched by a typical Lance Lynn production season of 3.3 WAR. And Bauer doesn't cost 6 years of Dane Dunning, just money. Oh, and a second round pick that likely won't amount to anything, can't forget about that.

[SoxBlanco]

14 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

2 in the last 3, sandwiched by a typical Lance Lynn production season of 3.3 WAR. And Bauer doesn't cost 6 years of Dane Dunning, just money. Oh, and a second round pick that likely won't amount to anything, can't forget about that.

The point is that you pegged Bauer as a bona fide ace and Lynn as an “ace” who has only had one good season, when in reality, they are very similar. Even if you only focus on the last three years when Bauer has really taken a step forward, their WARs are 11.6 and 11.1. Not as big of a gap as you made it sound. 

People can use stats to paint any picture they want to help fit a narrative. One could say Bauer has had only ONE full season with an ERA under 4, and it’d be crazy to pay somebody like that close to $30M per year. Or if you don’t like ERA, you could say that Bauer has had only ONE season with a WAR above 3.3. 

And I’m not trying to say I wouldn’t want Bauer. I would love to sign him. But Lynn is a great addition, and I can at least understand the hesitancy to sign somebody like Bauer to a huge contract. 

[Rowand44]

5 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

The point is that you pegged Bauer as a bona fide ace and Lynn as an “ace” who has only had one good season, when in reality, they are very similar. Even if you only focus on the last three years when Bauer has really taken a step forward, their WARs are 11.6 and 11.1. Not as big of a gap as you made it sound. 

People can use stats to paint any picture they want to help fit a narrative. One could say Bauer has had only ONE full season with an ERA under 4, and it’d be crazy to pay somebody like that close to $30M per year. Or if you don’t like ERA, you could say that Bauer has had only ONE season with a WAR above 3.3. 

And I’m not trying to say I wouldn’t want Bauer. I would love to sign him. But Lynn is a great addition, and I can at least understand the hesitancy to sign somebody like Bauer to a huge contract. 

And pegged Dane as a 2-4 starter for the next 6 years when we have 0 clue what he is.  

[RagahRagah]

42 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Other than his standout 6.8 WAR season, Lynn has generally been a 3-3.5 WAR pitcher when healthy, and that's not someone you want as your playoff #2. You could acknowledge that Lynn was on a 4 WAR pace last season, and that would be fair, but people on this thread have tried to pretend that Bauer's near 7 WAR 2020 pace doesn't exist or doesn't matter. You can't have it both ways, either Lynn's 2020 matters because 2020 matters or Bauer's 2020 doesn't matter because 2020 doesn't matter.

I consider myself a stat guy, but when people simply narrow their tunnel vision down to WAR and look at or consider nothing else it is just worth an eye roll and little else.

Edited December 13, 2020 by RagahRagah

[Dam8610]

3 hours ago, chetkincaid said:

I’ll be glad when Bauer signs elsewhere so we can all stop talking about him. Like I’ve said before, I want him to sign with the Angels to see if throwing money at players like that actually works or not. 

This is the sad reality of the situation. Jerry is too cheap to turn this organization into one like the Dodgers, even when he has the opportunity to do so.

1 hour ago, BrianAnderson said:

As i mentioned in another thread, signing bauer makes you instant WS favorites. with a rotation of giolito, bauer, keuchel, lynn you have guys who can all go 7+ a game and give you 200ip. Throw Cease at the 5 and Kopech and Crochet outta the pen to build up innings in 2021 and you're all set. don't need any more bullpen help if you have a bauer. 

 

Come playoff time you could go Angels 2005 series with 4-5 complete games in a row. 

 

Spend $35mm on Hendriks, Quintana/Paxton, and a "squint and maybe" DH/LF/RF util type guy? You're still the same team. You move tiers with Bauer, you don't when spending $35mm in another way. 

This is fantasy, but I like it. Also don't think it would take $35 million on a long term deal. $28 million probably gets it done.

2 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

The point is that you pegged Bauer as a bona fide ace and Lynn as an “ace” who has only had one good season, when in reality, they are very similar. Even if you only focus on the last three years when Bauer has really taken a step forward, their WARs are 11.6 and 11.1. Not as big of a gap as you made it sound. 

People can use stats to paint any picture they want to help fit a narrative. One could say Bauer has had only ONE full season with an ERA under 4, and it’d be crazy to pay somebody like that close to $30M per year. Or if you don’t like ERA, you could say that Bauer has had only ONE season with a WAR above 3.3. 

And I’m not trying to say I wouldn’t want Bauer. I would love to sign him. But Lynn is a great addition, and I can at least understand the hesitancy to sign somebody like Bauer to a huge contract. 

If you look for ways to devalue Bauer or put Lynn in the same tier, you can find them, I agree. But if you're honestly looking to evaluate likely outcomes, Bauer was a full WAR better than Lynn in 60 games last year (Bauer 2.5 vs. Lynn 1.5), and he's going into his age 30 season, meaning he's likely to have some of his best production going forward, and it is likely to align with the prime years of the competitive window the White Sox have worked so hard to build. Lynn is going into his age 34 season, had a very anomalous 2019 and came back down closer to his normal production in 2020. That doesn't seem like a pitcher who will give you 5-7 WAR in 2021 or after if he signs an extension. If you're comparing the two, and financial considerations aren't a major factor, Bauer is the player I'd take 10 of 10 times, even leaving out the idea of giving up a cost controlled asset like Dunning for Lynn.