Dodgers sign Bauer (3/102, opt-outs, 40-45-17)

[YourWhatHurts]

I'm sure Bauer hired his agent based on her extraordinary negotiating skills and wealth of experience, doing something....

But regardless, he's the same guy who asked for an arb number that involved 420 and 69 in it, and likely lost his case and some extra money in large part because of it.  And he turned around and threw the ball into the stands or towards the stands when getting pulled out of his last Indians appearance in a public hissy fit.

For an overpaid #3 starter, I don't really think he's worth that much of a headache.  

Hoepfully Cease and Kopech develop as desired, because if they do, people will forget about all of this outside help stuff rather quickly.

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

I'm sure Bauer hired his agent based on her extraordinary negotiating skills and wealth of experience, doing something....

But regardless, he's the same guy who asked for an arb number that involved 420 and 69 in it, and likely lost his case and some extra money in large part because of it.  And he turned around and threw the ball into the stands or towards the stands when getting pulled out of his last Indians appearance in a public hissy fit.

For an overpaid #3 starter, I don't really think he's worth that much of a headache.  

Hoepfully Cease and Kopech develop as desired, because if they do, people will forget about all of this outside help stuff rather quickly.

This is the nerd saying he didn't want to date the prom queen because she wears too much make up, knowing damn well she has no idea who he even is.

[oldsox]

39 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

I'm sure Bauer hired his agent based on her extraordinary negotiating skills and wealth of experience, doing something....

But regardless, he's the same guy who asked for an arb number that involved 420 and 69 in it, and likely lost his case and some extra money in large part because of it.  And he turned around and threw the ball into the stands or towards the stands when getting pulled out of his last Indians appearance in a public hissy fit.

For an overpaid #3 starter, I don't really think he's worth that much of a headache.  

Hoepfully Cease and Kopech develop as desired, because if they do, people will forget about all of this outside help stuff rather quickly.

Who has she represented before?

[raBBit]

45 minutes ago, oldsox said:

Who has she represented before?

She represents Puig too. Pretty sure she is yet to get a contract for her players because Puig’s contract with ATL got nixed when he tested positive for COVID. 

[Quin]

This thread made me want to actually read up on Luba.

Here's a profile from the SF Chronicle

Bullet points

• Attended UCLA on gymnastics scholarship. Attended the same classes as Bauer, they became friends. She took meticulous notes that she didn't let him use.
• She met with his agent (Bauer set it up) - agent said she wouldn't be welcome in the industry due to her gender.
• Agent gave her advice to try and break in; she graduates early, goes to law school, competes at Tulane's Baseball Arbitration Competition
• Interned with Beverly Hills Sports Council, who then recommended her to the MLBPA as a lawyer.
• She sat in on 22 arbitration cases in 2018.
• The Bauer passage:

Quote

Though Luba had known Bauer for a decade, she had to formally pitch him and his father to land the ace as her first client.

“Rachel’s plan made so much sense to me — the value isn’t just determined by what the player does on the field,” Bauer said. “The days of an agent going into a room, getting drinks with the owner, getting them drunk and agreeing to a deal are long gone, but the agency world still seems to feel like players should be compensated on past performance rather than realizing the industry now pays for projected future performance.

“When you realize that shift, the value of negotiating a contract is drastically diminished and players need to be a brand off the field to set them up for what they might want to do afterward.”

 

[iWiN4PreP]

5 hours ago, raBBit said:

She represents Puig too. Pretty sure she is yet to get a contract for her players because Puig’s contract with ATL got nixed when he tested positive for COVID. 

She only recently took on puig

[zisk]

I'd be fine with Kluber or Paxton. Just find out which one has the most gas left in the tank.

[poppysox]

5 hours ago, zisk said:

I'd be fine with Kluber or Paxton. Just find out which one has the most gas left in the tank.

Yep...Kluber & Paxton are both a step ahead of Q in my mind.  I would settle for any of the three.

[hi8is]

8 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Yep...Kluber & Paxton are both a step ahead of Q in my mind.  I would settle for any of the three.

I had been in on Paxton but saw some concerning advanced metrics in another thread which pulled me off him.

[YourWhatHurts]

Of course Bauer would be in favor of getting paid for what he is expected to do in the future instead of what he has done in the past.  

Don't pitch like a true ace, then get paid like a true ace anyway because you are still young and you still plan on doing so in the future.

I'm going to guess that players like Scherzer or Verlander as examples will not be requesting the services of Ms. Luba in the future, at least not any baseball-related ones...

Edited January 10, 2021 by YourWhatHurts

[YourWhatHurts]

5 hours ago, zisk said:

I'd be fine with Kluber or Paxton. Just find out which one has the most gas left in the tank.

We really only need a 1/2 season solution.  These options have some appeal because if it doesn't work, it shouldn't kill us all year, and if it does work, it's excellent added depth.

My favorite option here is Paxton given the value of a live-armed lefty in the pen, just in case things go south a bit as a SP.

Actually, I am really hoping the Sox are in on Tanaka.

[Eminor3rd]

15 hours ago, YourWhatHurts said:

I'm sure Bauer hired his agent based on her extraordinary negotiating skills and wealth of experience, doing something....

But regardless, he's the same guy who asked for an arb number that involved 420 and 69 in it, and likely lost his case and some extra money in large part because of it.  And he turned around and threw the ball into the stands or towards the stands when getting pulled out of his last Indians appearance in a public hissy fit.

For an overpaid #3 starter, I don't really think he's worth that much of a headache.  

Hoepfully Cease and Kopech develop as desired, because if they do, people will forget about all of this outside help stuff rather quickly.

Overpaid #3 starter =\= reigning Cy Young Award winner

[Dam8610]

1 hour ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Of course Bauer would be in favor of getting paid for what he is expected to do in the future instead of what he has done in the past.  

Don't pitch like a true ace, then get paid like a true ace anyway because you are still young and you still plan on doing so in the future.

I'm going to guess that players like Scherzer or Verlander as examples will not be requesting the services of Ms. Luba in the future, at least not any baseball-related ones...

"Ace" is a very subjective term, but I think it would apply to the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. If not, then I guess you'd have to tell me what you call a pitcher averaging 5.3 WAR/162 over the last 3 seasons. Fangraphs calls it a "Superstar" (their term for a 5-6 WAR player), but what do you call it?

Edited January 10, 2021 by Dam8610

[Eminor3rd]

54 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

"Ace" is a very subjective term, but I think it would apply to the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. If not, then I guess you'd have to tell me what you call a pitcher averaging 5.3 WAR/162 over the last 3 seasons. Fangraphs calls it a "Superstar" (their term for a 5-6 WAR player), but what do you call it?

"Overpaid #3 starter"

Edited January 10, 2021 by Eminor3rd

[Vulture]

1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

"Ace" is a very subjective term, but I think it would apply to the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. If not, then I guess you'd have to tell me what you call a pitcher averaging 5.3 WAR/162 over the last 3 seasons. Fangraphs calls it a "Superstar" (their term for a 5-6 WAR player), but what do you call it?

I’m coming up with an average of 4.0 war per 162 over last three seasons

[SCCWS]

On 1/8/2021 at 3:51 PM, turnin' two said:

I'm having a bit of difficulty envisioning too much of a market for Bauer.    I would think Carrasco takes the Mets out.  Phillies?  Braves?  Marlins?  Don't think so.  The Nats make big moves, and he may fit, but they already have a super expensive rotation.  But maybe.  You can pretty much remove any NL Central team (Cards maybe?  Haven't heard anything but maybe?).  The NL West?  Can't see Colorado being a fit.  SD?  I think they've made their rotation upgrades.  Dodgers?  They seem to be looking in other directions.  Giants?  That's a possibility.  Arizona?  I doubt it.

Yanks?  Haven't heard much, and I believe Bauer and Cole hate each other.Boston?  He doesn't make a ton of sense for them.  Rays?  Yeah right.  Baltimore?  Ha!  Toronto, seems to be a fit, but they seem more focused on Springer.  Oakland?  No way.  Seattle?  He doesn't seem to fit their timeline.  Texas?  Again, they will make big moves, but he doesn't seem to fit their timeline.  Houston?  I can see a fit, but who knows if they are ready to spend like that, and he was really critical of them so maybe some sour grapes as well.  The Angels look like a good fit, but they've been gun-shy and have some really big contracts already.  

I think you can rule out the entire AL Central (except maybe the Sox, for the sake of this post anyways). 

So as potential suitors I would say he has:ts, Cards, Giants, Angels, Jays and maybe for pretend, the Sox.  

Now, I may be completely off, and who knows if these teams are really interested, and maybe the Yanks, BoSox or Dodgers really are interested, and that would change everything.  Of those, I don't even think the Nats are really in play.  I'd guess the Giants are probably the best chance for a big payday.  Then the Jays.  The Angels make sense, but who knows.  

I guess what I'm driving at is, I don't think Bauer has a huge payday in front of him, and maybe the Sox could have a bit of a bargain available if they are sharp and willing.  

Actually Boston has money to spend and they seem very quiet. I thought they would go for Springer but starting pitching is another big need that Bauer could fill. 

[YourWhatHurts]

5 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

Overpaid #3 starter =\= reigning Cy Young Award winner

You mean "Cy Y"

I'd like to note that I actually tried to only spell 37% of the letters in "Cy Young" but I do not believe there is a character for half of a capital "Y" so I just rounded up and gave Bauer the whole "Y."  But adding that full "Y" for Bauer is still rounding up very optimistically because that constitutes 43% of the number of the letters in "Cy Young" while Bauer's award was only good for 37% of a season.

[YourWhatHurts]

^What I'm saying above is that it's a "small sample size" or in Bauer's case a "small s"

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

So Jose Abreu is M\ .... and not MVP. 37%... Duly noted. 

[Dam8610]

11 hours ago, Vulture said:

I’m coming up with an average of 4.0 war per 162 over last three seasons

You have to multiply the 2.5 by 2.7 to reflect the 60 game 2020 season to get Bauer's 2020 WAR/162 of 6.8. 5.8 + 3.3 + 6.8 = 15.9/3 = 5.3.

That said, even a 4 WAR starter is much better than an "overpaid #3 starter".

[Dam8610]

8 hours ago, YourWhatHurts said:

^What I'm saying above is that it's a "small sample size" or in Bauer's case a "small s"

So then please explain the 5.8 WAR full season 2018. I've noticed a lot of people on this board trying to discredit Bauer based on mostly a down 2019 where he only pitched like career average Lance Lynn, which for Bauer is a down year. But these people also seem to discredit his 2020 Cy Young winning performance because it was a short year and pretend like his near 6 WAR 2018 doesn't exist. It's not like Bauer pulled a Lance Lynn and suddenly became elite in one year, then started to show regression back to the mean in the following year. Quite the opposite, he showed dominance previously, had a "down year" where he was a borderline 2 starter, then won the Cy Young. The "it's not sustainable" argument doesn't hold up if he's kept a 5.3 WAR pace over nearly 500 innings. That's not a small sample size according to most here.

[Dominikk85]

Through 2017 Bauer really was just ok (4.3 era) but since 2018 he had two very elite seasons.

He also had a mediocre 2019 and 2020 was shortened so he is not a totally sure thing but the potential is there and 2019 might just be a little fluke in his new self.

He also has been very durable so far which is a plus.

[Dam8610]

6 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Through 2017 Bauer really was just ok (4.3 era) but since 2018 he had two very elite seasons.

He also had a mediocre 2019 and 2020 was shortened so he is not a totally sure thing but the potential is there and 2019 might just be a little fluke in his new self.

He also has been very durable so far which is a plus.

2018 was his age 27 season. Seeing a young, talented pitcher who flashes potential finally put it all together at that age is not uncommon at all. Not every pitcher can be Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, or Chris Sale and just come up to MLB and immediately put all their tools together and become an elite pitcher. Sometimes it's a process that takes time. Even the super conservative Steamer has Bauer worth 11 WAR over the next 3 years (3.8 in 2021, 3.7 in 2022, 3.5 in 2023). Even if you then apply the standard Fangraphs aging curve to him (which is very much against his favor), that makes him 3 WAR in 2024 and 2.5 WAR in 2025, for a 5 year value of 16.5 WAR, which at $9 million/WAR (which I believe is the current going rate), would make Bauer worth a 5 year/$148.5 million contract. Bear in mind that all estimates used in the above analysis are extremely conservative, and I'd expect Bauer, barring injury, to be worth somewhere between 20-25 WAR on a 5 year contract. Rarely do you get an opportunity to get surplus value in a free agent contract. I wish the White Sox would take advantage of it.

[poppysox]

3 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

2018 was his age 27 season. Seeing a young, talented pitcher who flashes potential finally put it all together at that age is not uncommon at all. Not every pitcher can be Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, or Chris Sale and just come up to MLB and immediately put all their tools together and become an elite pitcher. Sometimes it's a process that takes time. Even the super conservative Steamer has Bauer worth 11 WAR over the next 3 years (3.8 in 2021, 3.7 in 2022, 3.5 in 2023). Even if you then apply the standard Fangraphs aging curve to him (which is very much against his favor), that makes him 3 WAR in 2024 and 2.5 WAR in 2025, for a 5 year value of 16.5 WAR, which at $9 million/WAR (which I believe is the current going rate), would make Bauer worth a 5 year/$148.5 million contract. Bear in mind that all estimates used in the above analysis are extremely conservative, and I'd expect Bauer, barring injury, to be worth somewhere between 20-25 WAR on a 5 year contract. Rarely do you get an opportunity to get surplus value in a free agent contract. I wish the White Sox would take advantage of it.

Rick Hahn loves creative incentive base contracts and Bauer seems the type to bet on himself.  They just may find a way to get together.

[Bob Sacamano]

3 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

Through 2017 Bauer really was just ok (4.3 era) but since 2018 he had two very elite seasons.

He also had a mediocre 2019 and 2020 was shortened so he is not a totally sure thing but the potential is there and 2019 might just be a little fluke in his new self.

He also has been very durable so far which is a plus.

He was pitching great in 2019 until Jose Abreu hit a rocket off his ankle and then missed time.