Dodgers sign Bauer (3/102, opt-outs, 40-45-17)

[longshot7]

9 minutes ago, fathom said:

Yes, one title would be worth it

Always worth it.

[ptatc]

13 minutes ago, fathom said:

Yes, one title would be worth it

I can already see the posts from this board a couple years after the WS title. "how could they mismanage the team so badly that they only got one title." "This FO sucks to only get one title out of this group" etc.

[Dominikk85]

3 hours ago, ptatc said:

I can already see the posts from this board a couple years after the WS title. "how could they mismanage the team so badly that they only got one title." "This FO sucks to only get one title out of this group" etc.

Yeah, it is never enough.

However it also could be zero WS, just ask the yankees who are always good since the middle of the decade but never went all the way since 09.

 

 

 

[Dam8610]

14 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Yeah, it is never enough.

However it also could be zero WS, just ask the yankees who are always good since the middle of the decade but never went all the way since 09.

 

 

 

I'm not going to feel bad for the Yankees not winning championships until the White Sox have at least one quarter of the amount of championships the Yankees have.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, Wisebri224 said:

And that's the question.  So if we won 1 sometime between 2021-2023 and then it was busted up, you'd be good?  Because in looking at contracts, in 2023 if you sign Bauer at $35 million, you have $175 million in payroll assuming Vaughn is playing first, one of our Cuban sensations is playing right (and the other is Dh'ing?), two of our kids are SP.  Your bullpen is Hendriks, Bummer, Fry and a bunch of min guys and we still don't have a full roster.  I'm not sure if this window lasts longer than 2 years doing it.  While I agree that if you said we would win it in the next couple years I would be tempted, that's a really short window

Yea I'm good . If Reinsdorf had a better track record of showing he cared about the team making the playoffs I'd agree with you but he doesn't so I don't.

[Vulture]

20 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

You have to multiply the 2.5 by 2.7 to reflect the 60 game 2020 season to get Bauer's 2020 WAR/162 of 6.8. 5.8 + 3.3 + 6.8 = 15.9/3 = 5.3.

That said, even a 4 WAR starter is much better than an "overpaid #3 starter".

Oh so you’re just giving war for those 102 games he didn’t play

[Dam8610]

10 minutes ago, Vulture said:

Oh so you’re just giving war for those 102 games he didn’t play

Reading is fundamental. It specifically says WAR/162 to allow for the shorter 2020 season. I gave Bauer nothing, but rather converted to a pace stat, which I feel is the fairest way to compensate for the shortened 2020 season. He was on a near 7 WAR pace in both 2020 and 2018, but I also decided not to use his injury in 2018 to his favor in the calculation, because the idea is to get a fair measurement of his value.

[Vulture]

Right. The correct way to calculate it would be (x/162 + y/162 + z/60) * 162. The way you did it gives him credit for war he didn’t actually achieve.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Vulture

[justBLAZE]

15 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Not sure if anyone saw his latest YouTube video, but he does a rundown of the things most important to him. Everything sounded good until he got to one. Pitching every 4 days. He wants the team he signs with to have a serious discussion about doing just that. I’m sorry, but that’s ridiculous. Imagine trying to plan out a rotation with one guy going every 4 days. He gives a bunch of options of how he thinks it would work, but it seems incredibly counter productive to put one guy’s regimen over the rest of the team. What a mess. Maybe a team like the Rays would do that, but you’re not going to find a competitive team willing to run that over the course of 162 game season.

Reminds me of that time Machado would only play short.

[Dam8610]

10 minutes ago, Vulture said:

Right. The correct way to calculate it would be (x/162 + y/162 + z/60) * 162. The way you did it gives him credit for war he didn’t actually achieve.

You do realize doing that would provide the exact same result, right? Here, let's try it, just for fun:

5.8/162 = .0358

3.3/162 = .0204

2.5/60 =  .0417

.0358 + .0204 + .0417 = .0978 * 162 = 15.9/3 = 5.3 WAR/162, as I may have stated previously.

[MeanJoeCrede]

1 minute ago, Dam8610 said:

You do realize doing that would provide the exact same result, right? Here, let's try it, just for fun:

5.8/162 = .0358

3.3/162 = .0204

2.5/60 =  .0417

.0358 + .0204 + .0417 = .0978 * 162 = 15.9/3 = 5.3 WAR/162, as I may have stated previously.

Even I knew that, and I didn't realize there was gonna a math quiz tonite.

[Vulture]

7 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

You do realize doing that would provide the exact same result, right? Here, let's try it, just for fun:

5.8/162 = .0358

3.3/162 = .0204

2.5/60 =  .0417

.0358 + .0204 + .0417 = .0978 * 162 = 15.9/3 = 5.3 WAR/162, as I may have stated previously.

My mistake. Should be (x+y+z)/(162+162+60)*162

[Dam8610]

5 minutes ago, Vulture said:

My mistake. Should be (x+y+z)/(162+162+60)*162

That creates an unfair weight against the 2020 season and STILL comes out at a 4.9 WAR average. So basically, even weighting all the factors one possibly can against Bauer (because none of this analysis gives Bauer the 18-20% premium he should get on his 2018 rate stats for the time he missed in 2018), he still comes out as basically a ~5 WAR pitcher. Are you done arguing that he's an "overpaid #3 starter" yet? Because Fangraphs says 5 WAR is what playoff teams look for from their #1 starters.

[Vulture]

I never said that, you must have me confused with someone else.

[Vulture]

I guess the discrepancy there is bref has Bauer at 1.1 WAR for 2019. Which I would argue is more accurate. No way Bauer was worth 3.3 wins above replacement that year

[ron883]

C'mon Jerry, lay your balls on the table and sign Bauer. Give your boy La Russa the tools he needs to succeed. 

[Dam8610]

16 minutes ago, Vulture said:

I never said that, you must have me confused with someone else.

The whole reason the WAR argument came up was the "overpaid #3 starter" comment. Hopefully whomever believed that has been illuminated to the contrary.

[Vulture]

Well I do agree he’s going to be overpaid if he gets close to what he’s asking for

[Dam8610]

22 minutes ago, Vulture said:

I guess the discrepancy there is bref has Bauer at 1.1 WAR for 2019. Which I would argue is more accurate. No way Bauer was worth 3.3 wins above replacement that year

 

This is exactly why I prefer fWAR for pitchers, because it seems arbitrary to reward or punish a pitcher for the defense and bullpen they have to deal with. Also, you're crazy if you think that 213 innings of basically a league average pitcher isn't worth 3 WAR. There's value in the ability of a starter to take that volume of a workload and provide even league average performance because it takes stress off of your bullpen.

 

9 minutes ago, Vulture said:

Well I do agree he’s going to be overpaid if he gets close to what he’s asking for

What's his ask? At 5/$150 if he produces 20 WAR over the life of the contract (which would be under what I'd expect), it's a $30 million surplus value contract assuming the price of WAR doesn't go up during that period.

[Vulture]

I’m not sure I buy the defense argument, unless the defense didn’t show up for Bauer but it did for Gray, Castillo, Clevinger, Civale etc. Otherwise, those other guys would have been practically unbeatable with a better defense. Interestingly bref and fangraphs are almost identical for his ‘18 and ‘20 seasons.

I thought he was actually asking for even more than that, but if 4 WAR a year is worth 30 million a year wouldn’t there be a lot more guys making 30+ a year? There were 72 players at 4+ war in 2019 for example

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

48 minutes ago, Vulture said:

I’m not sure I buy the defense argument, unless the defense didn’t show up for Bauer but it did for Gray, Castillo, Clevinger, Civale etc. Otherwise, those other guys would have been practically unbeatable with a better defense. Interestingly bref and fangraphs are almost identical for his ‘18 and ‘20 seasons.

I thought he was actually asking for even more than that, but if 4 WAR a year is worth 30 million a year wouldn’t there be a lot more guys making 30+ a year? There were 72 players at 4+ war in 2019 for example

The veteran pitcher and reigning Cy Young Award winner is believed to want a five- or six-year contract worth between $36 and $40 million annually for a total of about $200 million, MLB Network's Jon Heyman reported .

 What is he is "believed to want" and what he actually wants are probably close to the same. But there is some belief that he could take a creative type contract because he wants to win a World Series. On a side note he also wants to be a billionaire. He said so in the SI article from a few years ago.

Bauer also did a Bauer thing getting in a squabble with Heyman shortly after .

https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/trevor-bauer-jon-heyman-feud-twitter-rachel-luba--01etv5mtvnb2

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Dominikk85]

2 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

 

This is exactly why I prefer fWAR for pitchers, because it seems arbitrary to reward or punish a pitcher for the defense and bullpen they have to deal with. Also, you're crazy if you think that 213 innings of basically a league average pitcher isn't worth 3 WAR. There's value in the ability of a starter to take that volume of a workload and provide even league average performance because it takes stress off of your bullpen.

 

What's his ask? At 5/$150 if he produces 20 WAR over the life of the contract (which would be under what I'd expect), it's a $30 million surplus value contract assuming the price of WAR doesn't go up during that period.

In terms of actual contribution to wins bWAR is better because for game results actual runs score matter and two pitchers with a 4.5 era (one with 3.5 fip and one with 5.5 fip) will be worth exactly the same.

However for predicting the future fWAR is better unless you have a 1000 plus inning sample on fip to era trends.

Btw Bref does also adjust for team defense, it is not simply RA9 WAR but still luck can happen.

For example aaron nola had 10 bWAR in 2018 which would make it an all time great season because he had a low RA with very bad team defense, so he kinda got a double benefit as he had a low babip plus the defense adjustment.

 

[iWiN4PreP]

Ive seen conflicting reports on our salary situation but man it woukd be incredible to get bauer... its the only move that’d make me stfu about all the poor decisions like larussa and eaton

[Dam8610]

5 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

In terms of actual contribution to wins bWAR is better because for game results actual runs score matter and two pitchers with a 4.5 era (one with 3.5 fip and one with 5.5 fip) will be worth exactly the same.

However for predicting the future fWAR is better unless you have a 1000 plus inning sample on fip to era trends.

Btw Bref does also adjust for team defense, it is not simply RA9 WAR but still luck can happen.

For example aaron nola had 10 bWAR in 2018 which would make it an all time great season because he had a low RA with very bad team defense, so he kinda got a double benefit as he had a low babip plus the defense adjustment.

 

You just stated why fWAR is better for these conversations. I don't care how Bauer performed for the Reds or Indians, I care how he would likely perform for the White Sox for the next 5 or 6 years were he to sign here. As you stated, fWAR is the much more useful tool for that conversation.

[Dam8610]

7 hours ago, Vulture said:

I’m not sure I buy the defense argument, unless the defense didn’t show up for Bauer but it did for Gray, Castillo, Clevinger, Civale etc. Otherwise, those other guys would have been practically unbeatable with a better defense. Interestingly bref and fangraphs are almost identical for his ‘18 and ‘20 seasons.

I thought he was actually asking for even more than that, but if 4 WAR a year is worth 30 million a year wouldn’t there be a lot more guys making 30+ a year? There were 72 players at 4+ war in 2019 for example

 

4 WAR is worth $36 million per year and players are rarely paid at the market WAR rate because contracts are typically longer to spread out the payment. The Padres don't necessarily want Manny Machado's age 33-36 seasons, but they're willing to pay $30 million AAV for them to get his age 26-32 seasons.

 

6 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

The veteran pitcher and reigning Cy Young Award winner is believed to want a five- or six-year contract worth between $36 and $40 million annually for a total of about $200 million, MLB Network's Jon Heyman reported .

 What is he is "believed to want" and what he actually wants are probably close to the same. But there is some belief that he could take a creative type contract because he wants to win a World Series. On a side note he also wants to be a billionaire. He said so in the SI article from a few years ago.

Bauer also did a Bauer thing getting in a squabble with Heyman shortly after .

https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/trevor-bauer-jon-heyman-feud-twitter-rachel-luba--01etv5mtvnb2

 

I don't see him getting that much, but that tells me that a 5/150 deal is right in the range he might end up taking. I wonder if he would take 5/$150 with a team option for $30 million and a $10 million buyout making it either 5/$160 or 6/$180. Considering the market for his services seems to be small, that might be a deal that gets it done.