Dodgers sign Bauer (3/102, opt-outs, 40-45-17)

[Harry Chappas]

48 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

From an owner's perspective, I think it's a fantastic deal. True value, no fluff. You don't have to pay a guy $25MM when he's 37 and rotting away. 

I agree am I crazy to think that this is not a good deal for Bauer?

He is betting on himself but the guaranteed money is not what I thought he would have gotten.  

[caulfield12]

Albert Belle V.2.

Look at those numbers.   1 1/2 great seasons, a 3.3 fWAR (but hardly worth Lionel Messi of MLB numbers, let alone Yasmani Grandal) and everything else under 3.

Unfortunately, only the Twins offering such a deal would shake the White Sox just a little bit, but they now operate even more conservatively than the White Sox after the Mauer deal went south.

And Belle was unquestionably one of the top 2-3 hitters in MLB back in 1997, along with Bonds, Thomas, Griffey Jr., M. Ramirez, McGwire and Sosa.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trevor-bauer/12703/stats?position=P

 

On top of all that, he might be less marketable than Belle even in terms of butts in the seats.  Heck, not even Zack Greinke.

Edited February 5, 2021 by caulfield12

[RagahRagah]

1 hour ago, tray said:

Fuck Trevor Bauer and Fuck the Dodgers.

Time for MLB to get a grip. 

Salary caps + revenue sharing = Credibility and competitiveness.

Economic Stimulus checks are too big you say?

40 Million / $1,400 = 28,571 people

Sorry to wax about political/social ideology, but wealth inequality in this country just gets uglier every time you see something like this.

Yeah, at some point this shit just needs to stop. There needs to be more even playing ground.

[pcq]

That guy who thinks he is USA Tomorrow is really USA Yesterday. 

[poppysox]

1 hour ago, BamaDoc said:

Thats the crazy part of this, if he is good it is 2-85.  If he gets hurt, say TJ and can't pitch it really becomes 2-105.  All risk by the club.  I mean good for him for getting this kinda deal.

In earlier posts, I questioned if you want Bauer sitting next to young guys you are trying to lock up long term.  How do you ask Gio to take 15-20 if his teammate makes 40-45?

 

1 hour ago, Sox80 said:

It won't matter how much jr has. He will just pocket the extra money.  Seriously fuck that guy!

It is good for Bauer but bad for baseball IMO.  The range from floor to ceiling needs to get fixed.

[South Side Hit Men]

29 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

I agree am I crazy to think that this is not a good deal for Bauer?

He is betting on himself but the guaranteed money is not what I thought he would have gotten.  

I don’t agree. He got max AAV today for the next two seasons, and has the option to either secure more either of the next two off-seasons (will sign a new deal for 2023 unless he is injured).

It’s also great deal for the Dodgers, the only team in baseball willing to spend money correlating with increased revenue in MLB. 

They also limit any long term injury risk/performance decline. Better to spend a few million more upfront and avoid length. The Sox would have been wise to do the same for their recent older signings of Keuchel (35 if vests), Grandal (34) and Hendriks (35), and God forbid they extend Lynn beyond 1 year guaranteed.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

I would pay a lot of money to watch someone try to convince Jerry Reinsdorf it would be smarter to pay more money upfront.  

[Bob Sacamano]

I would have liked a deal like this. Not going to lie.

[caulfield12]

The Giants, Cubs and Red Sox are all going backwards or retrenching.

Other than the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Angels...maybe the Rangers or Padres, who’s going to lead the spending?

MLB has now become FANG vs. the Russell 1000.

Young kids growing up basically in anywhere from the Rust Belt to Midwest to Near West can’t even dream of a World Series.  It’s two coasts and flyover territory, depending on one’s definition of Texas in the new order.

It’s just a reflection of life as we know it in reality.  Chicago will do its best to hold on, but how many markets in the two Central Divisions can realistically even support a superteam?

Edited February 6, 2021 by caulfield12

[YoYoIsMyHero]

10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The Giants, Cubs and Red Sox are all going backwards or retrenching.

Other than the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Angels...maybe the Rangers or Padres, who’s going to lead the spending?

MLB has now become FANG vs. the Russell 1000.

Young kids growing up basically in anywhere from the Rust Belt to Midwest to Near West can’t even dream of a World Series.  It’s two coasts and flyover territory, depending on one’s definition of Texas in the new order.

It’s just a reflection of life as we know it in reality.  Chicago will do its best to hold on, but how many markets in the two Central Divisions can realistically even support a superteam?

Starting to feel like the EPL where there's 6 teams and everyone else just happy to be there. 

[SoCalChiSox]

23 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I would pay a lot of money to watch someone try to convince Jerry Reinsdorf it would be smarter to pay more money upfront.  

Harold....why did we suddenly get tapped out now when I thought after Hendriks there was at least 8m left to spend just on another SP and allegedly another 7m for a bat?

How did that 15m suddenly become 3m overnight? Was it just an inaccurate number to begin with? 

[KrankinSox]

15 minutes ago, YoYoIsMyHero said:

Starting to feel like the EPL where there's 6 teams and everyone else just happy to be there. 

Better than the NBA

[South Side Hit Men]

26 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The Giants, Cubs and Red Sox are all going backwards or retrenching.

Other than the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Angels...maybe the Rangers or Padres, who’s going to lead the spending?

MLB has now become FANG vs. the Russell 1000.

Young kids growing up basically in anywhere from the Rust Belt to Midwest to Near West can’t even dream of a World Series.  It’s two coasts and flyover territory, depending on one’s definition of Texas in the new order.

It’s just a reflection of life as we know it in reality.  Chicago will do its best to hold on, but how many markets in the two Central Divisions can realistically even support a superteam?

2014: Kansas City

2016: Chicago

2017: Houston

I wouldn’t equate our current situation as long term forever, but unfortunately the players must actually lead a path to greater parity, by negotiating a firm and solid minimum salary ($2M-$4M) and team salary floor. The other alternative is to fight the absurd antitrust exemption in Congress.

If there is to be a cap, total revenue must be fully available for audit by the MLBPA. Unfortunately, owners have been growing auxiliary revenue (internet, television, real estate, gambling, etc.) which they are not currently “sharing”, and by and large choking off salaries.

Owners for the other three leagues have been far more trustworthy, transparent, equitable, and wise is their relationship with their players, the only reason 99% of fans care about the product.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

12 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Harold....why did we suddenly get tapped out now when I thought after Hendriks there was at least 8m left to spend just on another SP and allegedly another 7m for a bat?

How did that 15m suddenly become 3m overnight? Was it just an inaccurate number to begin with? 

They were a little too optimistic about fans being able to attend games.  

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Harry Chappas said:

I agree am I crazy to think that this is not a good deal for Bauer?

He is betting on himself but the guaranteed money is not what I thought he would have gotten.  

This is a very high risk deal for Bauer. It assumes he stays healthy the next 2 years and that the market gets fixed in the next FA deal. He could readily have approached $200 million guaranteed with an opt out from the Mets this year - if he stays healthy and dominates for 2 years, he could still land another $200 million deal and come out substantially ahead. But, some minor back, shoulder, or elbow problems could cost him $100 million or more in career earnings.

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

They were a little too optimistic about fans being able to attend games.  

“Billion dollar business doesn’t understand things that Soxtalk figured out last September. Film at 11.”

[bmags]

And the mets offer was 3/105 so I think @southsider2k5 wins the thread.

[SoCalChiSox]

21 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

“Billion dollar business doesn’t understand things that Soxtalk figured out last September. Film at 11.”

Seriously. 

Have they not been paying attention the last two months when everything has completely gone to hell and even vaccine rollout has been a disaster. 

There was never any scientific projections that everything was going to be back to 100 percent normal by April or anywhere near normal. On what basis did they even make this assumption? Its like a stunning failure to comprehend even the most rudimentary aspects of the pandemic. I can't believe they ever thought the union would roll over and bail them out by agreeing to delay the season.

[fathom]

Just now, SoCalChiSox said:

Seriously. 

Have they not been paying attention the last two months when everything has completely gone to hell and even vaccine rollout has been a disaster. 

There was never any scientific projections that everything was going to be back to 100 percent normal by April or anywhere near normal. On what basis did they even make this assumption? Its like a stunning failure to comprehend even the most rudimentary aspects of the pandemic. I can't believe they ever thought the union would roll over and bail them out by agreeing to delay the season.

Especially given the Governor of this state and the Mayor.

[caulfield12]

50 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

2014: Kansas City

2016: Chicago

2017: Houston

I wouldn’t equate our current situation as long term forever, but unfortunately the players must actually lead a path to greater parity, by negotiating a firm and solid minimum salary ($2M-$4M) and team salary floor. The other alternative is to fight the absurd antitrust exemption in Congress.

If there is to be a cap, total revenue must be fully available for audit by the MLBPA. Unfortunately, owners have been growing auxiliary revenue (internet, television, real estate, gambling, etc.) which they are not currently “sharing”, and by and large choking off salaries.

Owners for the other three leagues have been far more trustworthy, transparent, equitable, and wise is their relationship with their players, the only reason 99% of fans care about the product.

Yes, sure, but look at where those teams are now, along with the Indians...maybe, just maybe, the Astros are a playoff team for another year or so, but they’ve already peaked.

Wisconsin, for example, has been fortunate with the Brewers, Packers and Bucks, but how long can their luck hold out?

Is it possible to imagine Buffalo as one of the four best MLB teams, no way, right?

Twenty five years ago, they were still one of the best AAA markets in existence, but even that has faded.

 

It feels like it will take a long time for the Central divisions to get back again to where they were from 2006-2016.

The only example I can think of running against the entire “Coastal Trend” is Pac 10 football and basketball falling off the last five years.  On the football side, it’s 50-75% the SEC and Saban Effect and the power of national t.v. contracts and first round draft pick bonuses. And, of course, the NCAA’s not quite professional sports, but even there you have Florida and Texas in play in terms of the SEC.  Same reason for the existence of MD and Rutgers in the B10.

(Of course, the Marlins, A’s and Rays are MLB anomalies that would take some additional time to explain.)

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by caulfield12

[Harold's Leg Lift]

They weren't expecting to have a full house on opening day but they were hoping to have 20-25%.  

[fathom]

3 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

They weren't expecting to have a full house on opening day but they were hoping to have 20-25%.  

No money for a Vaughn extension?

[Harold's Leg Lift]

21 minutes ago, fathom said:

No money for a Vaughn extension?

I haven't heard anything about an extension but I don't think this years payroll would affect it because that money would come in future years. 

[South Side Hit Men]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Yes, sure, but look at where those teams are now, along with the Indians...maybe, just maybe, the Astros are a playoff team for another year or so, but they’ve already peaked.

Wisconsin, for example, has been fortunate with the Brewers, Packers and Bucks, but how long can their luck hold out?

Is it possible to imagine Buffalo as one of the four best MLB teams, no way, right?

Twenty five years ago, they were still one of the best AAA markets in existence, but even that has faded.

 

It feels like it will take a long time for the Central divisions to get back again to where they were from 2006-2016.

The only example I can think of running against the entire “Coastal Trend” is Pac 10 football and basketball falling off the last five years.  On the football side, it’s 50-75% the SEC and Saban Effect and the power of national t.v. contracts and first round draft pick bonuses. And, of course, the NCAA’s not quite professional sports, but even there you have Florida and Texas in play in terms of the SEC.  Same reason for the existence of MD and Rutgers in the B10.

(Of course, the Marlins, A’s and Rays are MLB anomalies that would take some additional time to explain.)

 

Permit "Evil Caulfield" to reiterate this stance is myopic. Nearly all MLB teams run through cycles, primarily fueled by player development regardless of revenue. 

• The Dodgers went over 30 years without winning despite consistent Top 5 revenue numbers throughout this period. Now they have Andrew Friedman, so they will likely continue in a permanent state of excellence with these folks in charge. Reinsdorf/LaRussa/Williams/Hahn are not in the same universe in competence. 
• The Yankees have gone over a decade without a World Series, despite a decent GM. This is the third longest non WS stretch since the Ruth era (1963-1976 & 1979-1995).
• Toronto will likely play once again in Buffalo (or their spring training site in Florida), and unlike most cheap-ass teams including the White Sox have significantly increased 2021 spending, despite the almost certain chance they will not return to their home city until 2022 at the earliest.

Ownership has by and large failed in the sole reason of their existence, to maintain the integrity of the competition and put the best product possible on the field. This must be fixed in the next CBA, even if it takes one or more years without baseball to do so. I believe players will successfully negotiate meaningful changes which will also increase salaries for most of members, while at the same time pushing the owners in a direction to operate in both the short and long term interests of the sport (which will also help continue ever increasing club valuations).

Regarding the other sports:

• The NFL/Packers are in a league with a tight window of player salaries, and unlike the pathetic Bears have proven they can compete in any era (championships in 7 of 10 decades) because they have a competent FO and ownership committed to winning. 
• The NBA is a player driven league. It's harder to attract the top player to Milwaukee, but a competent FO can (and did) draft one. 
• The two Rose Bowl Circle-Jerk conferences have sucked at football since the University of Chicago left the conference. The Big "Ten" (sic) is primarily a basketball conference. Outside of Papa Sam Gilbert's "Pyramid Scheme of Success" and a few Coach Robinson led teams, the PAC 12 is primarily a non revenue sports league.

College Football National Championships (AP/UPI Era (1950) to present):

• 22.5 Southeastern: Alabama (10 + 3 Split); Louisiana State (3 + 1 Split); Florida 3; Tennessee 2; Auburn (1 + 1 Split); Georgia 1.
• 12.5 Independents: Notre Dame (3 + 1 Split); Miami, Fla 3; Pennsylvania State 2; Brigham Young 1; Pittsburgh 1; Syracuse 1; Michigan State 1.
• 12.0 Big 7/8/12: Oklahoma (6 + 1 Split); Nebraska (3 + 2 Split); Texas 1; Colorado (1 Split).
• 7.5 Atlantic Coast: Clemson 3; Florida State 3; Maryland 1; Georgia Tech (1 Split).
• 6.0 "Big" 7/8/10: "thee" Ohio State University (3 + 2 Split); Minnesota 1; Michigan State (1 Split); Michigan (1 Split).
• 5.5 Pacific 10/12: Southern California (3 + 3 Split); Washington (1 Split); California Los Angeles (1 Split).
• 2.5 Southwest: Texas (2 + 1 Split).
• 1.5 Big East: Miami Florida (1 + 1 Split).

Edited February 6, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I haven't heard anything about an extension but I don't think this years payroll would affect it because that money would come in future years. 

One “niche” the White Sox definitely have...spending millions and millions on 1B/DH types.

With the exception of Abreu, we must have the lowest return on investment of any team in baseball from 2011-2020 at the DH spot.  Realistically, Jimenez and eventually Grandal will be there as well.