Dodgers sign Bauer (3/102, opt-outs, 40-45-17)

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

They weren't expecting to have a full house on opening day but they were hoping to have 20-25%.  

As I said, what was going to happen as the holidays approached was no secret as of September. You are saying these people are fools.

[35thstreetswarm]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Yes, sure, but look at where those teams are now, along with the Indians...maybe, just maybe, the Astros are a playoff team for another year or so, but they’ve already peaked.

Wisconsin, for example, has been fortunate with the Brewers, Packers and Bucks, but how long can their luck hold out?

Is it possible to imagine Buffalo as one of the four best MLB teams, no way, right?

Twenty five years ago, they were still one of the best AAA markets in existence, but even that has faded.

 

It feels like it will take a long time for the Central divisions to get back again to where they were from 2006-2016.

The only example I can think of running against the entire “Coastal Trend” is Pac 10 football and basketball falling off the last five years.  On the football side, it’s 50-75% the SEC and Saban Effect and the power of national t.v. contracts and first round draft pick bonuses. And, of course, the NCAA’s not quite professional sports, but even there you have Florida and Texas in play in terms of the SEC.  Same reason for the existence of MD and Rutgers in the B10.

(Of course, the Marlins, A’s and Rays are MLB anomalies that would take some additional time to explain.)

 

Tune in to the Super Bowl in, oh, two days 

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Permit "Evil Caulfield" to reiterate this stance is myopic. Nearly all MLB teams run through cycles, primarily fueled by player development regardless of revenue. 

• The Dodgers went over 30 years without winning despite consistent Top 5 revenue numbers throughout this period. Now they have Andrew Friedman, so they will likely continue in a permanent state of excellence with these folks in charge. Reinsdorf/LaRussa/Williams/Hahn are not in the same universe in competence. 
• The Yankees have gone over a decade without a World Series, despite a decent GM. This is the third longest non WS stretch since the Ruth era (1963-1976 & 1979-1995).
• Toronto will likely play once again in Buffalo (or their spring training site in Florida), and unlike most cheap-ass teams including the White Sox have significantly increased 2021 spending, despite the almost certain chance they will not return to their home city until 2022 at the earliest.

Ownership has by and large failed in the sole reason of their existence, to maintain the integrity of the competition and put the best product possible on the field. This must be fixed in the next CBA, even if it takes one or more years without baseball to do so. I believe players will successfully negotiate meaningful changes which will also increase salaries for most of members, while at the same time pushing the owners in a direction to operate in both the short and long term interests of the sport (which will also help continue ever increasing club valuations).

Regarding the other sports:

• The NFL/Packers are in a league with a tight window of player salaries, and unlike the pathetic Bears have proven they can compete in any era (championships in 7 of 10 decades) because they have a competent FO and ownership committed to winning. 
• The NBA is a player driven league. It's harder to attract the top player to Milwaukee, but a competent FO can (and did) draft one. 
• The two Rose Bowl Circle-Jerk conferences have sucked at football since the University of Chicago left the conference. The Big "Ten" (sic) is primarily a basketball conference. Outside of Papa Sam Gilbert's "Pyramid Scheme of Success" and a few Coach Robinson led teams, the PAC 12 is primarily a non revenue sports league.

College Football National Championships (AP/UPS Era (1950) to present):

• 22.5 Southeastern: Alabama (10 + 3 Split); Louisiana State (3 + 1 Split); Florida 3; Tennessee 2; Auburn (1 + 1 Split); Georgia 1.
• 12.5 Independents: Notre Dame (3 + 1 Split); Miami, Fla 3; Pennsylvania State 2; Brigham Young 1; Pittsburgh 1; Syracuse 1; Michigan State 1.
• 12.0 Big 7/8/12: Oklahoma (6 + 1 Split); Nebraska (3 + 2 Split); Texas 1; Colorado (1 Split).
• 7.5 Atlantic Coast: Clemson 3; Florida State 3; Maryland 1; Georgia Tech (1 Split).
• 6.0 "Big" 7/8/10: "thee" Ohio State University (3 + 2 Split); Minnesota 1; Michigan State (1 Split); Michigan (1 Split).
• 5.5 Pacific 10/12: Southern California (3 + 3 Split); Washington (1 Split); California Los Angeles (1 Split).
• 2.5 Southwest: Texas (2 + 1 Split).
• 1.5 Big East: Miami Florida (1 + 1 Split).

That’s very exhaustive research.

Of course, past trends aren’t indicative of future performance.

The Buffalo of 2021 could never support an MLB franchised permanently based there.

The Dodgers have made the playoffs every year since 2013.   Like the Braves’ run in the 90’s and early 2000’s (and now again), not many WS titles but consistent success.

Right now, the Dodgers, Padres and Braves are the three best teams in baseball, and the Yankees/Red Sox don’t look anything like they did in the past.  The Yankees still spend, but even they have limits, and Cohen is desperate to make a big splash.   Outside of those five teams, it would be even money in Vegas against the other 25 teams in baseball for the next 3-4 WS titles.

 

[caulfield12]

15 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Tune in to the Super Bowl in, oh, two days 

Pat Mahomes, Tom Brady or Matt Rodgers are not macro trends indicative of anything geographically but the critical nature of the QB position in the NFL, and scouting.  Watch the Packers without Rodgers, or Patriots without Brady.

Not to mention there are very few MLB players drafted who can make a team-transforming impact in their draft year or second season in the game.

[Heads22]

Almost should refer to this as a 1-year, $40 million deal with two player options.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

10 hours ago, southsideirish71 said:

Yeah, I for one want nothing to do with the current NL Cy Young winner.  I can't wait to look at August when Carlos Rodon is giving up a long home run to Cruz.  Hey we might lose this game, but at least he didn't do something on Twitter.  Glad you have your principles.  

 

I could give a fuck if he puts on a puppet show on Twitter every Friday if he is the best pitcher available.  I want that on my team.  These principled people who don't want X person because it hurts their sensibilities are funny.  I would rather get the best available player.  The same people who hated AJ before he was here loved him here.  Dennis Rodman, sure when he was with Detroit you hated him.  I want the best player.  If he is doing something illegal then no.  Dont want him.  But because he has X opinion or uses twitter or makes something about himself.  Good lord. 

Amen. Half the people here, if they were young professional athletes who chose to reveal more about themselves would be thought of as douches too. Does everyone really have to act the same way and hide their inner self to please everyone ?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 1/13/2021 at 7:03 AM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I think he could get a $35M AAV in a shorter  3 yr. contract just not in a 7 or 8 year contract. It's what he could get in those 4th , 5th and 6th years that might be holding things up.

Part of my discussion with SS2k5

4 hours ago, bmags said:

And the mets offer was 3/105 so I think @southsider2k5 wins the thread.

 

9 hours ago, bmags said:

pretty good.

 

[Dominikk85]

Essentially the contract is a two year contract with a safety cushion player option. Bauer will certainly take the 85m in the first two years but the 17m he will only take if he is very bad or very hurt.

So most likely he will opt out after year two which the dodgers are probably planning for in their payroll structure.

[GradMc]

16 hours ago, southsideirish71 said:

Yeah, I for one want nothing to do with the current NL Cy Young winner.  I can't wait to look at August when Carlos Rodon is giving up a long home run to Cruz.  Hey we might lose this game, but at least he didn't do something on Twitter.  Glad you have your principles.  

 

I could give a fuck if he puts on a puppet show on Twitter every Friday if he is the best pitcher available.  I want that on my team.  These principled people who don't want X person because it hurts their sensibilities are funny.  I would rather get the best available player.  The same people who hated AJ before he was here loved him here.  Dennis Rodman, sure when he was with Detroit you hated him.  I want the best player.  If he is doing something illegal then no.  Dont want him.  But because he has X opinion or uses twitter or makes something about himself.  Good lord. 

Ain't no second three-peat without Rodman.

[GradMc]

16 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

That's such a horrible deal for anybody but the Dodgers.  Whatever.  He was never in play.  The opt outs are just poison.

But it's LAD that is standing in Hahn's way of achieving multiple championships.

Until the Sox are owned by affluent sportsmen that càn compete with LAD, the Sox may contend but not win.

Do you really think LAD fans àre tossing and turning in their sleep worrying about the 100 plus million the team owners may end up paying Bauer?

They have expectations.

The Reinsdorf Experience in any other major market wouldn't have lasted 3 years let alone 40.

And in those 40 years they've made the post seasons 6 friggin times and it took a group of journeymen ballplayers having collective career years for them to get pass the first round in the only time they did.

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by GradMc

[Cashman]

30 minutes ago, GradMc said:

But it's LAD that is standing in Hahn's way of achieving multiple championships.

Until the Sox are owned by affluent sportsmen that càn compete with LAD, the Sox may contend but not win.

Do you really think LAD fans àre tossing and turning in their sleep worrying about the 100 plus million the team owners may end up paying Bauer?

They have expectations.

The Reinsdorf Experience in any other major market wouldn't have lasted 3 years let alone 40.

And in those 40 years they've made the post seasons 6 friggin times and it took a group of journeymen ballplayers having collective career years for them to get pass the first round in the only time they did.

 

I agree. If this were Pittsburgh, I think it would be fine. But being in a major market, it honestly is an embarrassment.

[thxfrthmmrs]

From a Dodgers perspective, a front loaded deal with a almost guaranteed opt out in year 3 also helped drive their luxury tax hit down for the first 2 years. This is definitely a unique and beneficial deal on both sides.

[caulfield12]

Let’s not forget that only one of his 13 starts last year was against a team with an above-average offense.
 

The first winner is Bauer, who turned brash self-promotion and two strong seasons into the two highest annual salaries in MLB history. This deal is the validation that baseball’s Mark Zuckerberg has craved all along. It’s a giant middle finger in the faces of all those who questioned his methods, the perfect mic drop for all those who dared to doubt him.

The second is the Padres, the pesky title-less franchise two hours down the coast (without traffic, anyway). Their brilliant moves this offseason baited the rational Dodgers, three months after winning the World Series, into overspending for a starting pitcher they don’t need. Even if the Dodgers are still the better team this season, such a deal could prove restrictive for them and give San Diego the advantage moving forward.

.....

After all, this is the same person who told Sports Illustrated two years ago, “I want to be a billionaire. Not for any other reason than just to say I did it.”

So the Dodgers are tied to him for at least two years. Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw and Corey Seager—two of their best and most beloved players—are set to become free agents after this season. Keeping one, or both of them, will become more difficult with so much invested in Bauer, especially with Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler expected to get significant raises through arbitration and Mookie Betts making more than $20 million next year. The Dodgers are projected to spring well above the luxury tax line with Bauer on the books. Will ownership have the stomach to stay on that course for much longer? If so, it'd make Los Angeles the only franchise seemingly willing to do so for an extended period.

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/02/06/trevor-bauer-dodgers-contract-unintended-consequences

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ScootsMcGoots]

I'm not sure this has been posted yet, but...

2021 Salaries/Payrolls:

Bauer: 40 M

Pirates: 42.8 M

Indians: 52.6 M

Orioles" 59.8 M

Holy......

[NWINFan]

GradMc is right. The lower expectations for Chicago teams came from continued losing. From 1946-2004, there was only one Chicago team in the World Series coming from a two-team market. So, any time a Chicago team finally made it to the post-season, fans were expected to kiss the feet of ownership. Now that each team has won a Series in this century, I guess that is it for the expectations game. The rebuild has turned a corner. We will now see how serious this team is about real winning.

[poppysox]

13 minutes ago, ScooterMcGee said:

I'm not sure this has been posted yet, but...

2021 Salaries/Payrolls:

Bauer: 40 M

Pirates: 42.8 M

Indians: 52.6 M

Orioles" 59.8 M

Holy......

Can't help but think....that's not good for baseball.  Teams need to have an absolute salary floor and ceiling.

[EloyJenkins]

14 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Can't help but think....that's not good for baseball.  Teams need to have an absolute salary floor and ceiling.

A salary cap would be impossible at this point with so much separation between the top and bottom three. MLB lacks the amazing national TV deals thst NBA and NFL have. But a floor is absolutely necessary and i hope the players union wont sign next CBA until at least 85 million floor is in place. 

 

[CentralChamps21]

2 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

A salary cap would be impossible at this point with so much separation between the top and bottom three. MLB lacks the amazing national TV deals thst NBA and NFL have. But a floor is absolutely necessary and i hope the players union wont sign next CBA until at least 85 million floor is in place. 

 

A salary cap and/or floor would have to be accompanied by sharing of local TV revenue.

[caulfield12]

https://tylerpaper.com/ap/sports/patrick-reusse-modern-baseball-devoid-of-any-of-the-games-past-charm/article_bfce4367-69cb-5aa3-b717-1deb4a6af1fb.html
 

Thus, an e-mail, to Anthony C. Clark.

Dear Tony:

It's good when owners have a chance to rake in a pile of millions. The hope for that to occur is the reason a talented, wacky right-handed starter can fetch $85 million in his first two seasons of a brand-new contract.

And, there's nothing you can do in a salary cap-free environment to make the Eastern-educated, analytics-believing front offices of today's baseball to sign a flawed 30 years-plus position player for more than one year at $8 million, even if you as an ex-player and the agents all remember when they could talk teams into big contracts for 33-year-olds who weren't stars.

It's true that analytic zealots — bringing as they do quick hooks for effective starters, endless relievers, hitters striking out 45% of the time and still in the lineup, only home runs and no rallies — have made 75% of MLB games sparse in action and suffocating in time.

And guess what? Culpable as they are in baseball's dwindling watchability, you're still not going to get the brainiacs to give more than one year and $8 million to Eddie Rosario.

Yes, Tony, the game is gasping, and all you can do by fighting a plan to allow owners to make substantially more honeybuns of hundreds to help pay Trevor Bauer's ransom is to hasten its ruination.

Yours truly … Despondent baseball lifer.

 

[GREEDY]

Insane contract.  

His catcher Will Smith makes 575k a year, or about what Bauer might earn every 3 innings.  

The player's union better get pre-arb money doubled or tripled this CBA. 

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

Insane contract.  

His catcher Will Smith makes 575k a year, or about what Bauer might earn every 3 innings.  

The player's union better get pre-arb money doubled or tripled this CBA. 

Won’t that put small market teams at even more of a disadvantage and also disincentivize, at least somewhat, the construction of a Top 10 farm system?

[GREEDY]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

Won’t that put small market teams at even more of a disadvantage and also disincentivize, at least somewhat, the construction of a Top 10 farm system?

Why would the player's union give a damn about a small market team's ability to build a farm system?

500k a year is not enough for players who have accomplished the impossible.   

Prorated pre-arb contracts are an absolute insult to what these player's have accomplished.  Their window to earn a living is so small, their union better look out for them.  Veteran run player's unions tend to always look after their own, which happen to be veteran players.  

[chitownsportsfan]

25 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

Insane contract.  

His catcher Will Smith makes 575k a year, or about what Bauer might earn every 3 innings.  

The player's union better get pre-arb money doubled or tripled this CBA. 

I'm not a religious person but if I was I'd be praying the union can stay united and present a unified front this round.  The gap between the vets and the young in pay is untenable.  I know, it's a union, nothing matters but seniority, but this is extreme haves and have nots, even for a union.

[GREEDY]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

The gap between the vets and the young in pay is untenable.  I know, it's a union, nothing matters but seniority, but this is extreme haves and have nots, even for a union.

I actually support a star like Bauer getting insane money.  People tune-in to see him pitch.  People buy his jerseys.  Superstars make the league money.

It is the next tier of player that is way out of wack IMHO.  

Adam Eaton is not significantly more valuable to the game/product than a pre-arb outfielder.  I expect him to earn more than an unproven player, but not 16X more.  

 

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

Why would the player's union give a damn about a small market team's ability to build a farm system?

500k a year is not enough for players who have accomplished the impossible.   

Prorated pre-arb contracts are an absolute insult to what these player's have accomplished.  Their window to earn a living is so small, their union better look out for them.  Veteran run player's unions tend to always look after their own, which happen to be veteran players.  

There has always been this “paying one’s dues” in baseball for young players.

Basically, you’re a first rounder with a huge signing bonus or you’re going to spend many years proving doubters wrong.

Now, you are seeing more players in Rounds 2-10 getting money like Kelley, but it has always been a front-loaded game.

We can compare with the NFL and NBA, but first, but top picks in those sports are expected to make instant impacts...whereas the majority of high school picks take 4-5 years to even reach the majors, three if they’re extremely talented.

It’s hard to imagine that changing because the interests of MiLB ownership groups and MLB talent development has never been aligned in a way that there’s ever been a foremost concern about the product minor league teams have to market/sell.