Dodgers sign Bauer (3/102, opt-outs, 40-45-17)

[Jack Parkman]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Sure, some people are adjusting their go-forward projections due to past performance, but there will be at least couple teams who feel he’s a 5 to 6 win pitcher over next handful years and that will ultimately set his marker above $30M/year.

They can have him then. 

The highest I'd be willing to go is 27-28M AAV on a 5 year deal. So 5/140 is my top offer and if they beat that then so be it. I already feel uncomfortable there. 

Edited December 4, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

They can have him then. 

The highest I'd be willing to go is 27M AAV on a 5 year deal. Do the math. 

I’d easily do 5/$150M with Bauer.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, fathom said:

Especially someone like Bauer that is always trying to reinvent himself and showed significant improvement last year.

100% agree.

[bmags]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

100% agree.

He was also having an incredible 2018 until Abreu hit a comebacker off his ankle and broke it.

[shakes]

48 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’d easily do 5/$150M with Bauer.

I'd do it without blinking. He's the type of pitcher that puts the Sox at the top of the heap in the AL, and allows them time to develop other pitchers and see what they have.

I was in for Wheeler last year and think Bauer is better. I still think he should easily be their #1 FA target. There's ways to solve the other holes on the team, but I just don't like any of the other options for a TOR starter.

 

And just to add, it's why I thought it was so important to get Wheeler last year. 4-5 year contracts for these type of pitchers is ideal. I think people haven't paid attention to what it takes to get FA pitching. Ascending pitchers, who can throw innings, and make adjustments like these guys aren't easy to come by and may not be around and gettable again. We are never dipping into the Garret Cole type market, so this needs to be where the Sox make a move.

Edited December 4, 2020 by shakes

[YourWhatHurts]

47 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

That’s not how valuation works and baseball is managed by a bunch of Ivy Leaguers and legit data scientists who know how to forecast appropriately.

 

46 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You are so off here it’s not even funny.

People like Jim Bowden make trades.  Long-time scouts and medical staff provide input.  At the end of it all is an owner who really knows little if anything about baseball who makes decisions.  

Way to grossly overstate the importance of a few poindexters running numbers.  MLB clubs have a shitload of money and can grossly overpay for all kinds of basic services.  The Astros were hiring out of NASA.  What a fucking joke.  If you're a baseball fan and you happen to be employed by NASA maybe you leave for a fatter check and a dream job.  You get to be a kid again, go play with your toys, etc.  But just because some legitimate scientist took a baseball job does not mean that the baseball job needed to be done by some scientist from NASA.  

If some guy from NASA makes your blizzard for you at Dairy Queen it is still a blizzard and it's still Dairy Queen and just about anyone can still  do it.

BTW I agree with Jack.  Bauer is not, nor has he ever been, in Strasburg/DeGrom/Sale/Scherzer/Kershaw/Greinke/Price/Verlander etc. territory when those guys all got their huge deals.  If someone wants to pay an Aston Martin price for a BMW, fine, let them, and I hope it's not us.  jerry reinsdorf is never going to operate with the kind of payroll that allows a team to absorb the mistakes of overspending by $6-10M or so on so many players.  He's already going to be doing it with your boy Grandal.

[southsider2k5]

I quit reading at "Poindexter" because there was going to be a complete lack of substance and all feelings based garbage. 

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Going to guess like a 3/105 so he can get another bite on the apple.

I don’t know how no one suggested this over the last 2 hours but the obvious answer is 5/150 with an opt out after 2 or 3 years (by a professional organization that offers contracts like that). Gets him back to FA after the virus and lockout messes.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, YourWhatHurts said:

 

People like Jim Bowden make trades.  Long-time scouts and medical staff provide input.  At the end of it all is an owner who really knows little if anything about baseball who makes decisions.  

Way to grossly overstate the importance of a few poindexters running numbers.  MLB clubs have a shitload of money and can grossly overpay for all kinds of basic services.  The Astros were hiring out of NASA.  What a fucking joke.  If you're a baseball fan and you happen to be employed by NASA maybe you leave for a fatter check and a dream job.  You get to be a kid again, go play with your toys, etc.  But just because some legitimate scientist took a baseball job does not mean that the baseball job needed to be done by some scientist from NASA.  

If some guy from NASA makes your blizzard for you at Dairy Queen it is still a blizzard and it's still Dairy Queen and just about anyone can still  do it.

BTW I agree with Jack.  Bauer is not, nor has he ever been, in Strasburg/DeGrom/Sale/Scherzer/Kershaw/Greinke/Price/Verlander etc. territory when those guys all got their huge deals.  If someone wants to pay an Aston Martin price for a BMW, fine, let them, and I hope it's not us.  jerry reinsdorf is never going to operate with the kind of payroll that allows a team to absorb the mistakes of overspending by $6-10M or so on so many players.  He's already going to be doing it with your boy Grandal.

What in the fuck are you rambling about?  Comparing a $100M+ investment to making a fucking blizzard has got to be the dumbest shit I have ever heard on this board.  There is a reason people a lot smarter than you are paid millions of dollars to make these decisions.  There is a reason all companies (not just baseball) are levering analytics into their decision making process.  People like Jim Bowden are no longer making these decisions because the game passed them by years ago.  Your entitled to have a difference of option on Bauer, but your view that I’m overstating the importance of analytics and the people who work them is laughable.

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I quit reading at "Poindexter" because there was going to be a complete lack of substance and all feelings based garbage. 

I hope this dude is still in high school or something, because what kind of grown ass man actually makes fun of someone else for being smarter than them.

[YourWhatHurts]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What in the fuck are you rambling about?  Comparing a $100M+ investment to making a fucking blizzard has got to be the dumbest shit I have ever heard on this board.  There is a reason people a lot smarter than you are paid millions of dollars to make these decisions.  There is a reason all companies (not just baseball) are levering analytics into their decision making process.  People like Jim Bowden are no longer making these decisions because the game passed them by years ago.  Your entitled to have a difference of option on Bauer, but your view that I’m overstating the importance of analytics and the people who work them is laughable.

You obviously cannot understand much unless it is fed to you via fangraphs so I will try again.

Baseball overhires and overpays because they can.  An overpaid overhire doing the same job that some other person with a less impressive resume who is accustomed to a smaller salary may look impressive to a fat rich owner, but in actuality, it is unnecessary.  You don't need a culinary degree to work at Burger King.  

Jack is right.  At the end of the day, nobody knows.  And no, people like Jim Bowden are still all over the place in various roles in baseball.  Scouting is also still a thing.  The numbers guys are a small part of the puzzle.  But as always you grossly overstate the importance of that part of the puzzle in like every single post you make here.

[YourWhatHurts]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I hope this dude is still in high school or something, because what kind of grown ass man actually makes fun of someone else for being smarter than them.

Smarter?  

Specialization and experience in specialization is what you are talking about.  Specialization yields intelligence over very many fields.  Yet people like you think that some guy who is a data scientist is like the most capable person in the world or whatever.

If some data scientists were really as great as you think they are there wouldn't be so many bad contracts around.  The fact is, like Jack was saying, nobody really knows what the future holds.  Teams spend money in several directions to try to make the best educated guesses they can.  That's all it is.  Nobody really knows.  

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

You obviously cannot understand much unless it is fed to you via fangraphs so I will try again.

Baseball overhires and overpays because they can.  An overpaid overhire doing the same job that some other person with a less impressive resume who is accustomed to a smaller salary may look impressive to a fat rich owner, but in actuality, it is unnecessary.  You don't need a culinary degree to work at Burger King.  

Jack is right.  At the end of the day, nobody knows.  And no, people like Jim Bowden are still all over the place in various roles in baseball.  Scouting is also still a thing.  The numbers guys are a small part of the puzzle.  But as always you grossly overstate the importance of that part of the puzzle in like every single post you make here.

Just because you can't understand it, doesn't mean it doesn't hold value. This thought process is exactly how you end up with an Al Davis or Jerry Jones running an organization into the ground. 

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, YourWhatHurts said:

You obviously cannot understand much unless it is fed to you via fangraphs so I will try again.

Baseball overhires and overpays because they can.  An overpaid overhire doing the same job that some other person with a less impressive resume who is accustomed to a smaller salary may look impressive to a fat rich owner, but in actuality, it is unnecessary.  You don't need a culinary degree to work at Burger King.  

Jack is right.  At the end of the day, nobody knows.  And no, people like Jim Bowden are still all over the place in various roles in baseball.  Scouting is also still a thing.  The numbers guys are a small part of the puzzle.  But as always you grossly overstate the importance of that part of the puzzle in like every single post you make here.

Lol...baseball is over-hiring by having actual data scientists run their analytics departments?  You got me there bro!  And no, the numbers guys are not a small part of the process.  When evaluating a $100M+ multi-year agreement, you are going to rely on these things called numbers to ensure you know what something is worth so you can determine what you can pay for said asset.  That’s called valuation and it’s not a skill-set a scout possesses.  And don’t get me wrong, scouting is absolutely vital to a front office’s decision-making process, but only when paired with analytical information.  Suggesting to use one or the other exclusively is just plain dumb.

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lol...baseball is over-hiring by having actual data scientists run their analytics departments?  You got me there bro!  And no, the numbers guys are not a small part of the process.  When evaluating a $100M+ multi-year agreement, you are going to rely on these things called numbers to ensure you know what something is worth so you can determine what you can pay for said asset.  That’s called valuation and it’s not a skill-set a scout possesses.  And don’t get me wrong, scouting is absolutely vital to a front office’s decision-making process, but only when paired with analytical information.  Suggesting to use one or the other exclusively is just plain dumb.

Projections are projections, they're not reality. At the end of the day, the game is played on the field. Bauer likely has figured it out, and is a very good pitcher going forward, but It does not mean that he is worth a 30M AAV like the guys who have been and continue to be consistently great. 

[Chicago White Sox]

21 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Projections are projections, they're not reality. At the end of the day, the game is played on the field. Bauer likely has figured it out, and is a very good pitcher going forward, but It does not mean that he is worth a 30M AAV like the guys who have been and continue to be consistently great. 

You’re missing my point.  I’m not saying he’s 100% going to be worth $30M+ going forward, I’m saying he will get a contract at that level because at least one club’s projections (even after discounting for risk) will forecast that type of pitcher going forward and pay accordingly.

[Vulture]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

This is a white sox specific view. But his 2019 was still very productive, its a top 30 pitcher due to the innings he's provided.

The benefit to the white sox is their salaries are going to grow with their young players, so a short term deal would take a lot of the % of our salaries, but then we aren't paying an underperforming guy in 4 years when we need to re-sign a tim anderson. 

If it's a short term deal, I don't think sox would even struggle to trade him at 2019 value if it isn't working out.

If the Sox sign Bauer at 35 per, the Sox will have close to 110 mil committed to seven players for '23, plus Giolito in year 3 arb, along with Kopech and Cease in arb. Over 120 million commited in '22, not including arb players. If Gio pitches close to how we hope, that could easily reach 30+ mil for those three by '23 and conceivably close to maybe 40+ if the other two approach their capabilities, so 140-150+ mil for ten players, not including any RF and RP acquisitions, and with Abreu and Keuchel needing replaced or resigned. Realistically, something like 160-170 committed minmum each of those years, without any other major acquisitions. Add in a couple relief pitchers and RF... If you're going with that kind of inflexibility, wouldn't it be more advisable to spread it around a little better? With relief, RF and SP being immediate needs, even if you're committing 50 mil per over the next three years there, you're at 175-185 mil in '22 and '23, with only 15 million per going to rf and pen. None to DH or LF, presuming Eloy is moved to DH upon Abreu's departure, or rotation additions, which hopefully won't be needed anyway, but you know it never works out that way. Odds are that's going to leave some major holes, particularly on the pitching staff. In sum, we'd have Bauer but we'd be skating on thin ice in RF and DH or LF, along with the bullpen and in the case of some unforeseen yet likely to arise need in the rotation. With a little more wiggle room in '21, sox could fill some of that on one year deals but then they'd have to be replaced with little room to manuever.

Meanwhile, Sox could acquire significant upgrades at starter, RF and the bullpen for little more than 35 million. What if the Sox could sign Sugano at 15-17 million, Peterson/JBJ/Rosario at 9-10, and Hendriks at 10-11?

Then use the other 15 million to sign someone like Quintana, a bench piece like Dahl and one of the derth of serviceable relievers then can probably be had at 1-2 million this year. If both Quintana and Bauer returned to '19 level of production you'd be getting essentially the equivalent

Versus Bauer and 15-17 million to fill out right field and the bullpen with no bench or additional rotation arms. Maybe you could get Colome and Rosario, if youre lucky. That seems somewhat attractive for '21 but increasingly less so, compared to the other route imo, in '22 and '23 with increasing arb costs and holes that will need to be filled.

Bauer, Colome and Rosario, or Sugano, Quintana, Pederson/JBj, Hendriks, Dahl and serviceable reliever, maybe someone like Wisler. I think I'd go with the latter. I imagine Sox are going to need seven starters to make 10+ starts in '21. That gives you Gio, Keuchel, Sugano, Quintana, Dunning, Kopech and Cease. With Crochet pushing Q out in '22 or '23, and Stiever, Thompson and Dahlquist when Keuchel is gone and if Dunning Kopech or Cease flop. Backed by a stacked pen headed up by Hendriks, Bummer and Heuer. Robert, Jimenez, Pederson/JBJ, Dahl and Engel pushed back to defensive sub role, would give a championship caliber depth, along with needed left handed bats, in the OF and DH, along with Vaughn

Granted one could argue Sox should push payroll to 200 million and just as solidly cover the entire 26 man roster while adding Bauer. Not sure how realistic that is though.

[Balta1701]

47 minutes ago, Vulture said:

If the Sox sign Bauer at 35 per, the Sox will have close to 110 mil committed to seven players for '23, plus Giolito in year 3 arb, along with Kopech and Cease in arb. Over 120 million commited in '22, not including arb players. If Gio pitches close to how we hope, that could easily reach 30+ mil for those three by '23 and conceivably close to maybe 40+ if the other two approach their capabilities, so 140-150+ mil for ten players, not including any RF and RP acquisitions, and with Abreu and Keuchel needing replaced or resigned. Realistically, something like 160-170 committed minmum each of those years, without any other major acquisitions. Add in a couple relief pitchers and RF... If you're going with that kind of inflexibility, wouldn't it be more advisable to spread it around a little better? With relief, RF and SP being immediate needs, even if you're committing 50 mil per over the next three years there, you're at 175-185 mil in '22 and '23, with only 15 million per going to rf and pen. None to DH or LF, presuming Eloy is moved to DH upon Abreu's departure, or rotation additions, which hopefully won't be needed anyway, but you know it never works out that way. Odds are that's going to leave some major holes, particularly on the pitching staff. In sum, we'd have Bauer but we'd be skating on thin ice in RF and DH or LF, along with the bullpen and in the case of some unforeseen yet likely to arise need in the rotation. With a little more wiggle room in '21, sox could fill some of that on one year deals but then they'd have to be replaced with little room to manuever.

Meanwhile, Sox could acquire significant upgrades at starter, RF and the bullpen for little more than 35 million. What if the Sox could sign Sugano at 15-17 million, Peterson/JBJ/Rosario at 9-10, and Hendriks at 10-11?

Then use the other 15 million to sign someone like Quintana, a bench piece like Dahl and one of the derth of serviceable relievers then can probably be had at 1-2 million this year. If both Quintana and Bauer returned to '19 level of production you'd be getting essentially the equivalent

Versus Bauer and 15-17 million to fill out right field and the bullpen with no bench or additional rotation arms. Maybe you could get Colome and Rosario, if youre lucky. That seems somewhat attractive for '21 but increasingly less so, compared to the other route imo, in '22 and '23 with increasing arb costs and holes that will need to be filled.

Bauer, Colome and Rosario, or Sugano, Quintana, Pederson/JBj, Hendriks, Dahl and serviceable reliever, maybe someone like Wisler. I think I'd go with the latter. I imagine Sox are going to need seven starters to make 10+ starts in '21. That gives you Gio, Keuchel, Sugano, Quintana, Dunning, Kopech and Cease. With Crochet pushing Q out in '22 or '23, and Stiever, Thompson and Dahlquist when Keuchel is gone and if Dunning Kopech or Cease flop. Backed by a stacked pen headed up by Hendriks, Bummer and Heuer. Robert, Jimenez, Pederson/JBJ, Dahl and Engel pushed back to defensive sub role, would give a championship caliber depth, along with needed left handed bats, in the OF and DH, along with Vaughn

Granted one could argue Sox should push payroll to 200 million and just as solidly cover the entire 26 man roster while adding Bauer. Not sure how realistic that is though.

The basic problem is...as a team expecting to compete, after turning huge profits in 2018-2019, with perhaps the best potential for revenue growth with a winning team of any team in all of MLB, in the 3rd largest city in the US, and on top of that a Cubs team no longer expected to compete...a payroll approaching the numbers you say shouldn't be outrageous. But given our experience with this organization, we have to assume those numbers are outrageous, and the pandemic has made it worse.

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Just because you can't understand it, doesn't mean it doesn't hold value. This thought process is exactly how you end up with an Al Davis or Jerry Jones running an organization into the ground. 

While I definitely don't agree with the post you were responding to, Al and Jerry both won three Super Bowls. Al was a great evaluator of talent before he became creepy Al at the end, Jerry being fortunate to hire Jimmy Johnson (third with Switzer). I'd would love a second World Series title before I die.

I'd say the McCaskey family is a better example of inept ownership who refuse to hire qualified professionals to operate their organization.

[southsider2k5]

21 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

While I definitely don't agree with the post you were responding to, Al and Jerry both won three Super Bowls. Al was a great evaluator of talent before he became creepy Al at the end, Jerry being fortunate to hire Jimmy Johnson (third with Switzer). I'd would love a second World Series title before I die.

I'd say the McCaskey family is a better example of inept ownership who refuse to hire qualified professionals to operate their organization.

If that is the standard,  JR is a dream.

[Dam8610]

5 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

They can have him then. 

The highest I'd be willing to go is 27-28M AAV on a 5 year deal. So 5/140 is my top offer and if they beat that then so be it. I already feel uncomfortable there. 

He'll get 6/$180. And the White Sox should be the ones to pay it. Throw in Joc Pederson and a couple of the top end relievers (Hand and Hendriks would be my choices) and go win some championships.

[Jack Parkman]

28 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

He'll get 6/$180. And the White Sox should be the ones to pay it. Throw in Joc Pederson and a couple of the top end relievers (Hand and Hendriks would be my choices) and go win some championships.

No dude.....he hasn't earned that type of pay check. He's had one full season of under a 4.00 ERA, and had a 4.42 as recently as 2019. 

This is insanity. I'd be willing to go over 25M on a 5 or 6 year deal but once you start to approach 30M it's too much and too far. Like 27-28M is my limit. Past that point, It's time to say no mas. 

Even if the Sox signed Bauer to 5/140 or something like that, if he's not close to the guy from 2018 or 2020 then it's a massive budget killer and would derail the window. 

I'm all for signing Bauer at a rate of the Wheeler offer or a little more. Some of the proposed contracts in this thread are batshit crazy. 

 

Edited December 5, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[poppysox]

I don't love the idea of bringing in people from outside the organization for considerably more than the current players get. Make an exception for generational talent but this year's crop of talent is not that.   Jose making 10 million less than Springer doesn't seem right. That said...it is the current system.   If Bauer can be had in the 20-25 million neighborhood I would like him.  If not...Colome and Hendriks along with Joc would complete my off-season.  Katz working with our stable of young guns with a lockdown pen should be very effective.  Joc/Engel and Vaughn make the lineup look very dangerous.

[Flash]

8 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

He'll get 6/$180. And the White Sox should be the ones to pay it. Throw in Joc Pederson and a couple of the top end relievers (Hand and Hendriks would be my choices) and go win some championships.

Would be very surprised if anyone goes 6 years and more surprised at $30/AAV. I think Bauer AAV will come in @$25M. Still a boatload.

[Sleepy Harold]

1 hour ago, poppysox said:

I don't love the idea of bringing in people from outside the organization for considerably more than the current players get. Make an exception for generational talent but this year's crop of talent is not that.   Jose making 10 million less than Springer doesn't seem right. That said...it is the current system.   If Bauer can be had in the 20-25 million neighborhood I would like him.  If not...Colome and Hendriks along with Joc would complete my off-season.  Katz working with our stable of young guns with a lockdown pen should be very effective.  Joc/Engel and Vaughn make the lineup look very dangerous.

If this is your approach, then you better be the gold standard for player development, which isn't the White Sox. Jose had an outstanding 2020, but Springer would make more than Jose because overall, he's a better (and slightly younger) baseball player that plays more valuable positions. I don't think the players would view it as a slight if their club brought in one of the better OFers on the market and in the game to help fortify their roster for their playoff aspirations.