How the Phillies Rebuild failed

[bmags]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30442797/how-philadelphia-phillies-botched-their-rebuild-tells-us-tanking%3Fplatform%3Damp

Interesting to reflect on them. Also is Sam Miller’s last article for espn.

I think part of this is even if the Phillies farm was ranked second...it really lacked high end talent. It seemed like the surprise of Hoskins made it seem like there was more there than there was.

I think main issue is Phillies started hitting the gas too early, but they are a weird team.

As the article gets into, a lot of their guys they depend on are performing well! But they both lack depth and also depth alone probably doesn’t get them over the top. They likely need one or two more excellent guys - and it’s not clear where they come from.

I think if I were them I’d let Realmuto go, and trade Nola and Howard, and make a 2019 twins rotation out of the guys on the market.

 

[35thstreetswarm]

Thoughts of the Phillies keep me up at night, because they’re the reminder that none of this is guaranteed to work (a fact the author finds refreshing, but which scares the bejeezus out of me).  The answer to “how did it happen” seems to be “dunno, it just kind of did”, which does not bring me much comfort.

[Dominikk85]

They simply Had too many prospects not working out (Monika, crawford, kingery, velazquez and others).I don't really think they made big mistakes except for their drafts which weren't great apart from bohm who looks ok.

When they hired ochart from driveline the player dev got better but at that time it was too late as the high upside guys were mostly out of the system or high minors already.

[southsider2k5]

Yes, the reinforcements never came and they tried to do everything through free agency.  You need to have a cheap source of talent flowing to the big team, otherwise it all collapses.

[iWiN4PreP]

Their bullpen was the problem, right? They wete awfulllll there

[poppysox]

The lesson learned is to continue the development of the young prospects we have through good coaching (Katz & Cairo).  Surround them with upgrades where we need reinforcements (RF and pitching).  Don't try to win it all with one blockbuster free agent.  Solid well-balanced teams win championships.  In 2005 we had a team with some very good players but certainly no one I would call a superstar.  Our coaching is looking better with the additions of Katz & Cairo and in spite of the negatives TL brings to the job...his teams play up to their abilities.  Guys like Bauer and Springer would be great if we can afford them...but if they fail...we are the Phillies.

[bmags]

21 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

They simply Had too many prospects not working out (Monika, crawford, kingery, velazquez and others).I don't really think they made big mistakes except for their drafts which weren't great apart from bohm who looks ok.

When they hired ochart from driveline the player dev got better but at that time it was too late as the high upside guys were mostly out of the system or high minors already.

Sox and Phil’s to me were in same place in 2018 offseason.

Luckily in 2019, Giolito, Moncada established themselves as stars and Robert put himself on the map.

The Phil’s never had that

[Tony]

11 minutes ago, poppysox said:

The lesson learned is to continue the development of the young prospects we have through good coaching (Katz & Cairo).  Surround them with upgrades where we need reinforcements (RF and pitching).  Don't try to win it all with one blockbuster free agent.  Solid well-balanced teams win championships.  In 2005 we had a team with some very good players but certainly no one I would call a superstar.  Our coaching is looking better with the additions of Katz & Cairo and in spite of the negatives TL brings to the job...his teams play up to their abilities.  Guys like Bauer and Springer would be great if we can afford them...but if they fail...we are the Phillies.

Did you even read the article? 

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

Did you even read the article? 

This board has never needed a transaction more

[poppysox]

5 minutes ago, Tony said:

Did you even read the article? 

Yes I did...what's your point?

[Quin]

1 minute ago, poppysox said:

Yes I did...what's your point?

We did the part the Phillies didn't - prospects succeeding.

The Sox were the specific example used to differentiate from the Phillies.

27 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yes, the reinforcements never came and they tried to do everything through free agency.  You need to have a cheap source of talent flowing to the big team, otherwise it all collapses.

This is why I'm hesitant whenever someone wants to unload someone like Thompson or Kelley - the Phillies and, much more pertinently, the Cubs show you need that second wave badly.

[Tony]

2 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Yes I did...what's your point?

The article is about the Phillies and the failed rebuild. The No. 1 reason Sam Miller gives in this article is  "The Prospects they developed didn't develop all the way." 

Your point was, and has been for quite some time "The Sox shouldn't spend big on a free agent because it could really hurt the team, we have a great core already!" 

Specifically, you used the line "Guys like Bauer and Springer would be great if we can afford them...but if they fail...we are the Phillies."

That's not what happened with the Phillies at all. In fact, as Sam Miller notes, their FA additions have worked out quite well all things considered. 

 

If you don't want the Sox to spend big in free agency, that's fine. But you're somehow using this article to try and back up the point you've been trying to make in other threads, and if anything this article speaks to the opposite. Signing big name free agents didn't take down the Phillies rebuild. And even if those FA's would have failed for the Phillies, it still wouldn't have been the thinking taking down the Phillies rebuild. It was the lack of their core developing the way they believed it would. That's the not the case on the South Side thus far. 

[ron883]

8 minutes ago, Quin said:

We did the part the Phillies didn't - prospects succeeding.

The Sox were the specific example used to differentiate from the Phillies.

This is why I'm hesitant whenever someone wants to unload someone like Thompson or Kelley - the Phillies and, much more pertinently, the Cubs show you need that second wave badly.

The second wave would be nice, but you need to be a world series contender in the first place. Trading a guy like Thompson is absolutely something that should be done if it improves our roster now. 

[southsider2k5]

12 minutes ago, Quin said:

We did the part the Phillies didn't - prospects succeeding.

The Sox were the specific example used to differentiate from the Phillies.

This is why I'm hesitant whenever someone wants to unload someone like Thompson or Kelley - the Phillies and, much more pertinently, the Cubs show you need that second wave badly.

Same.  You can fill in spots with free agency, but you have to have the cheap source of talent, because you can't fill all of those holes.  We need to be sure our player development stays at a high level, as does our drafting.  Past that we need to really be  involved internationally.

[Jack Parkman]

12 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Same.  You can fill in spots with free agency, but you have to have the cheap source of talent, because you can't fill all of those holes.  We need to be sure our player development stays at a high level, as does our drafting.  Past that we need to really be  involved internationally.

Sox Scouting has to be better there than everyone else because Jerry has a limit on how much he spends on 16 year olds......it's like he doesn't understand that they're one of the highest ROIs in baseball. They'll sign a bunch of guys in the 800k-1.5M range but no more than that. I think Adolfo was the most expensive 16 year old he signed since the Wilder fiasco and given how that has (not) worked, I doubt he'd be willing to go into 7 figures again. 

Edited December 5, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[fathom]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Sox Scouting has to be better there than everyone else because Jerry has a limit on how much he spends on 16 year olds......it's like he doesn't understand that they're one of the highest ROIs in baseball. 

Yet I bet you almost every other fan base b****es that their front office can’t compete with the Sox in terms of signing Cubans

[Dominikk85]

47 minutes ago, bmags said:

Sox and Phil’s to me were in same place in 2018 offseason.

Luckily in 2019, Giolito, Moncada established themselves as stars and Robert put himself on the map.

The Phil’s never had that

Yeah had giolito and moncada not turned it around after their rocky start it would look much worse for the sox now.

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Sox Scouting has to be better there than everyone else because Jerry has a limit on how much he spends on 16 year olds......it's like he doesn't understand that they're one of the highest ROIs in baseball. They'll sign a bunch of guys in the 800k-1.5M range but no more than that. I think Adolfo was the most expensive 16 year old he signed since the Wilder fiasco and given how that has (not) worked, I doubt he'd be willing to go into 7 figures again. 

I have come around to thinking that they are instead focusing on Cuba since they wont' deal with the 12 and 13 year olds like others.  Hopefully that is it.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Dominikk85 said:

Yeah had giolito and moncada not turned it around after their rocky start it would look much worse for the sox now.

But that is what a rebuild looks like.  Not everyone makes it, and MLB is hard.  Most don't get it right away.

[poppysox]

16 minutes ago, Quin said:

We did the part the Phillies didn't - prospects succeeding.

The Sox were the specific example used to differentiate from the Phillies.

This is why I'm hesitant whenever someone wants to unload someone like Thompson or Kelley - the Phillies and, much more pertinently, the Cubs show you need that second wave badly.

You are making the same point I apparently didn't get across.  By many people's standards, the WS justifies the Cubs trades and free-agent signings at the point we are at now in the rebuild.  Four short years later they are no longer a serious contender.  You use Thompson and Kelly as examples of prospects some would unload in potential trades.  I have seen Madrigal, Kopech, Cease, Vaughn, and others used as trade bait as well.  Just not my thing.

[southsideirish71]

The big difference is that Hahn and company went out and pre-emptively locked up a good amount of the young talent at pretty damn affordable rates.  We have the crux of our core in it for the long term of the competitive window.  We are at a point to add to tip us over the top.  Not to build the thing.  Our guys so far have hit at a good rate.  Every team has busts but so far, knock on wood, these guys look the part. 

Edited December 5, 2020 by southsideirish71

[Tony]

5 minutes ago, poppysox said:

You are making the same point I apparently didn't get across.  By many people's standards, the WS justifies the Cubs trades and free-agent signings at the point we are at now in the rebuild.  Four short years later they are no longer a serious contender.  You use Thompson and Kelly as examples of prospects some would unload in potential trades.  I have seen Madrigal, Kopech, Cease, Vaughn, and others used as trade bait as well.  Just not my thing.

By many people's standards, the Cubs 2015-2020 run was incredibly successful. Go look around the rest of the league and season by season results. The Cubs making the Championship series 3 years in a row, with a WS Championship right in the middle of it isn't something that is very common. 

Yes, they should have won another one. Yes the window closed sooner than anyone on the North Side would have liked. Theo and Co. made some really bad moves. 

But when Rick made the trades of Sale/Eaton/Q, if you would have told me "What the Cubs did in 2015-2016-2017-2018 is EXACTLY what is going to happen to the White Sox, and their window will close after Year 6." I take that every time........

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, Tony said:

By many people's standards, the Cubs 2015-2020 run was incredibly successful. Go look around the rest of the league and season by season results. The Cubs making the Championship series 3 years in a row, with a WS Championship right in the middle of it isn't something that is very common. 

Yes, they should have won another one. Yes the window closed sooner than anyone on the North Side would have liked. Theo and Co. made some really bad moves. 

But when Rick made the trades of Sale/Eaton/Q, if you would have told me "What the Cubs did in 2015-2016-2017-2018 is EXACTLY what is going to happen to the White Sox, and their window will close after Year 6." I take that every time........

Yeah, I have to agree here. You want more than one WS, but they was a very impressive run. I would take it.

[Jack Parkman]

34 minutes ago, fathom said:

Yet I bet you almost every other fan base b****es that their front office can’t compete with the Sox in terms of signing Cubans

I think Jerry thinks the Cubans are a safer investment, so he spends more there.  I have no idea why Jerry/Kenny/Rick don't go into Japan more then. 

Edited December 5, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[poppysox]

2 minutes ago, Tony said:

By many people's standards, the Cubs 2015-2020 run was incredibly successful. Go look around the rest of the league and season by season results. The Cubs making the Championship series 3 years in a row, with a WS Championship right in the middle of it isn't something that is very common. 

Yes, they should have won another one. Yes the window closed sooner than anyone on the North Side would have liked. Theo and Co. made some really bad moves. 

But when Rick made the trades of Sale/Eaton/Q, if you would have told me "What the Cubs did in 2015-2016-2017-2018 is EXACTLY what is going to happen to the White Sox, and their window will close after Year 6." I take that every time........

 

2 minutes ago, Tony said:

By many people's standards, the Cubs 2015-2020 run was incredibly successful. Go look around the rest of the league and season by season results. The Cubs making the Championship series 3 years in a row, with a WS Championship right in the middle of it isn't something that is very common. 

Yes, they should have won another one. Yes the window closed sooner than anyone on the North Side would have liked. Theo and Co. made some really bad moves. 

But when Rick made the trades of Sale/Eaton/Q, if you would have told me "What the Cubs did in 2015-2016-2017-2018 is EXACTLY what is going to happen to the White Sox, and their window will close after Year 6." I take that every time........

The difference has been that RH used the extensions for Sale/Eaton/Q to get really well compensated in those trades.  He turned around and extended the returns from those deals and signings with the Gio/Eloy/Moncada/Robert extensions.  We are in a position to be the Braves with seemingly endless postseason appearances if we play our cards right.  We have a potential all-star playing at every position except RF.  We have 3 or 4 potential TOR pitchers among our prospects.  There is a very real possibility to have the best 10 year run in this team's history IMO.  The Cubs only accomplished about half of what I'm hoping... for but I know what you're saying.