How the Phillies Rebuild failed

[Jack Parkman]

40 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

But that is what a rebuild looks like.  Not everyone makes it, and MLB is hard.  Most don't get it right away.

And even in terms of struggles, both guys only sucked for a year and a half before figuring it out. Not every rookie is good, but both guys emerged in their 2nd full season. 

I don't think the Phillies ever had someone like Moncada, Giolito and Robert who were consensus top 5 prospects in baseball at one point in their minor league careers, with Moncada being #1 in some publications. 

We have to realize how lucky we are as Sox fans to have those three guys. 

Edited December 5, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Quin]

1 hour ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

The second wave would be nice, but you need to be a world series contender in the first place. Trading a guy like Thompson is absolutely something that should be done if it improves our roster now. 

I said hesitant, not unwilling.

For a guy like Nimmo (pre-Cohen) or in a Snell package? Hell yes.

For rentals - I'm a little slower on the trigger.

39 minutes ago, poppysox said:

You are making the same point I apparently didn't get across.  By many people's standards, the WS justifies the Cubs trades and free-agent signings at the point we are at now in the rebuild.  Four short years later they are no longer a serious contender.  You use Thompson and Kelly as examples of prospects some would unload in potential trades.  I have seen Madrigal, Kopech, Cease, Vaughn, and others used as trade bait as well.  Just not my thing.

I think pretty much no one outside of Enos Sarris had seriously used Vaughn as trade bait.

Kopech and Cease both have high ceilings, but are now in a condensed timeline. Cease is hopefully given second life with Katz. Kopech hopefully is still the same after surgery and an additional season off. They've really only been floated for other starting pitchers, in which case you're seeing the other one and Dunning take the last two spots in the rotation. There are only two open starting spots (assuming they add to the rotation), so you need to have one of Kopech, Cease, or Dunning in the bullpen, Charlotte, or traded. The diplomatic answer will probably be Kopech in AAA to rebuild strength.

Madrigal I'd hold onto, but Mendick allows you to have an open ear on Madrigal's value. 

 

[southsider2k5]

18 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

And even in terms of struggles, both guys only sucked for a year and a half before figuring it out. Not every rookie is good, but both guys emerged in their 2nd full season. 

I don't think the Phillies ever had someone like Moncada, Giolito and Robert who were consensus top 5 prospects in baseball at one point in their minor league careers, with Moncada being #1 in some publications. 

Maikiel Franco was supposed to be that guy.

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Maikiel Franco was supposed to be that guy.

I don't think Franco was ever top 5 or even top 10 in baseball. 

Keith Law was the low man on Moncada before his debut and he had him at 6. 

Edited December 5, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Dominikk85]

2 hours ago, poppysox said:

You are making the same point I apparently didn't get across.  By many people's standards, the WS justifies the Cubs trades and free-agent signings at the point we are at now in the rebuild.  Four short years later they are no longer a serious contender.  You use Thompson and Kelly as examples of prospects some would unload in potential trades.  I have seen Madrigal, Kopech, Cease, Vaughn, and others used as trade bait as well.  Just not my thing.

I wrote this already in the other thread but again here: the cubs didn't have a short window, they had six years averaging 93.8 wins with 5 over 90, 5 postseasons, 2 nlcs and 1 ws

The cubs since 2015 won

2015: 97 (nlcs)

2016: 103 (WS)

2017: 92 (nlcs)

2018: 95 (WC)

2019:84 (no playoffs)

2020: 34 (92 pace, lost WC)

 

That is a fantastic, very long window and I would immediately sign up for that for the sox.

 

 

[michelangelosmonkey]

23 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

I wrote this already in the other thread but again here: the cubs didn't have a short window, they had six years averaging 93.8 wins with 5 over 90, 5 postseasons, 2 nlcs and 1 ws

The cubs since 2015 won

2015: 97 (nlcs)

2016: 103 (WS)

2017: 92 (nlcs)

2018: 95 (WC)

2019:84 (no playoffs)

2020: 34 (92 pace, lost WC)

 

That is a fantastic, very long window and I would immediately sign up for that for the sox.

 

 

I don't think people are arguing that the Cubs run was short...the Cubs had a very nice run. Very nice.  In fact if you look at the Cubs core positional players 25 and younger in 2015 they were every bit as good as the White Sox talent in 2020.  The difference between this team and that team is that we have a dozen very exciting pitchers that are 25 and younger AND we haven't spent big yet on free agency.  So if you are telling me that given where the White Sox sit right here...you would take four more playoff appearances and a WS win and then go back into the rebuild I think you are selling short.  I think this team has the potential to make an historic run and we just need a LITTLE bit more patience.  Trade deadline 2021 is when we hit the accelerator hard.  

[Dominikk85]

You wouldn't take 1 ws win and 2 ALCS losses plus another WC?

They could do more but they cubs also could have won another one (or none at all), the postseason does involve some luck.

[35thstreetswarm]

Just so we’re clear, the season we keep labeling “WC” was just a loss in a play-in game.  Doesn’t really count for much.

Averaging wins doesn’t really tell the whole story of their contention trajectory, either.  They had three years of contention.  2018 they were an afterthought that looked dead the second half and it was no surprise they went out with a whimper in the play-in.  By 2019 it was clear it was over.

Not saying a WS and two NLCS isn’t impressive.  But let’s not pretend the Cubs have been some kind of six-year juggernaut. 

Edited December 5, 2020 by 35thstreetswarm

[bmags]

The cubs again huh

[michelangelosmonkey]

3 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

You wouldn't take 1 ws win and 2 ALCS losses plus another WC?

They could do more but they cubs also could have won another one (or none at all), the postseason does involve some luck.

Of course I would take it...the range of outcomes are all over the place.  Still...the Packers had Brett Favre for 16 years and won one SB and lost another...their GM said they were just a fart in the wind.  Patriots had Brady for 19 years and won 6 Super bowls and lost 3.  If you are about to embark on a run would you take the Favre run?  Of course...but you HOPE for the Brady run.   I don't think it's crazy to think that in ten years baseball fans will be HATING the fucking White Sox and all their smug glory.  I don't want to be the team in ten years that looking back ESPN forgot they won another WS and had some competitive teams

       

[35thstreetswarm]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

The cubs again huh

Yep

[bmags]

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't think Franco was ever top 5 or even top 10 in baseball. 

Keith Law was the low man on Moncada before his debut and he had him at 6. 

Yeah I think this gets at it. Even Crawford, though highly rated, was a lot for his defense and athleticism. Addison russel type ranking, they lacked big iffensive prospects.

I think reality is rebuilds that aren’t kicked off with big trades are more like a 5 year process not 3.

Things like the Realmuto trade ended up being counterproductive. They’d probably be feeling much better going into next year with sixto, Nola and wheeler as top 3.

 

[Two-Gun Pete]

4 hours ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

The second wave would be nice, but you need to be a world series contender in the first place. Trading a guy like Thompson is absolutely something that should be done if it improves our roster now. 

I think the way to do it would be to use FA this offseason, to get the team FULLY into the playoff picture. I don't think that this team would need to sign the TOP SP or RF FAs to do that. I think this team could be in the division lead at the trade deadline by adding:

1. A total ~300 IP of ~4-4.25 FIP to the starting rotation between 2 FA SPs,

2. Re-signing Colome to make sure there's at least a 1st half closer,

3. Signing a solution that nets a TOTAL of ~2fWAR/+1 or more DRS/100 or more wrc+.

THEN, at the trade deadline, reassess. Either trade lesser pieces for rentals to finish up a pennant race for 2021, or perhaps some of your prospects pick their heads up enough to contribute down the stretch.

 

Trading away MAJOR pieces NOW, just because we're bored during the offseason would surely shorten the window. This system still has talent. But its top-heavy, and shallow, past the first ~6 or 7 names in the top prospects list. Getting rid of anyone in the top 10 this offseason wouldn't be warranted. I'd rather just use money during the offseason than trade assets.

[Jack Parkman]

48 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yeah I think this gets at it. Even Crawford, though highly rated, was a lot for his defense and athleticism. Addison russel type ranking, they lacked big iffensive prospects.

I think reality is rebuilds that aren’t kicked off with big trades are more like a 5 year process not 3.

Things like the Realmuto trade ended up being counterproductive. They’d probably be feeling much better going into next year with sixto, Nola and wheeler as top 3.

 

The bottom line is that the Sox had 3 players that were probable 5+ WAR guys with the potential for more. They all hit. The Phillies never had one guy anywhere close to as good of a prospect as any of Giolito/Moncada/Robert. 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The bottom line is that the Sox had 3 players that were probable 5+ WAR guys with the potential for more. They all hit. The Phillies never had one guy anywhere close to as good of a prospect as any of Giolito/Moncada/Robert. 

 

You’re forgetting Eloy.

[Dam8610]

9 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The bottom line is that the Sox had 3 players that were probable 5+ WAR guys with the potential for more. They all hit. The Phillies never had one guy anywhere close to as good of a prospect as any of Giolito/Moncada/Robert. 

 

That's one of the downsides of this strategy. Your big, important pieces have to hit. You can't miss on those guys, otherwise one rebuild could stretch over a decade.

[Jack Parkman]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You’re forgetting Eloy.

Yeah, that's another top 10 guy. Kopech peaked as a top 15 guy. The Sox had much better talent than Philadelphia. 

IIRC Sanchez was the top guy the Phillies ever had and he was in the 11-15 range. They traded him. 

Edited December 5, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Dam8610]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Of course I would take it...the range of outcomes are all over the place.  Still...the Packers had Brett Favre for 16 years and won one SB and lost another...their GM said they were just a fart in the wind.  Patriots had Brady for 19 years and won 6 Super bowls and lost 3.  If you are about to embark on a run would you take the Favre run?  Of course...but you HOPE for the Brady run.   I don't think it's crazy to think that in ten years baseball fans will be HATING the fucking White Sox and all their smug glory.  I don't want to be the team in ten years that looking back ESPN forgot they won another WS and had some competitive teams

       

Well whatever the White Sox do, I hope they don't cheat to win and make it all hollow and worthless. I'd rather be the Favre Packers because they didn't cheat.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yeah, that's another top 10 guy. Kopech peaked as a top 15 guy. The Sox had much better talent than Philadelphia. 

IIRC Sanchez was the top guy the Phillies ever had and he was in the 11-15 range. They traded him. 

Crawford was top 10, it was just less and less convincing the closer he got to the big leagues. 

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yeah, that's another top 10 guy. Kopech peaked as a top 15 guy. The Sox had much better talent than Philadelphia. 

IIRC Sanchez was the top guy the Phillies ever had and he was in the 11-15 range. They traded him. 

Not that it matters, but didn’t Eloy peak at top 5?

[Jack Parkman]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Not that it matters, but didn’t Eloy peak at top 5?

You're right actually, he did peak top 5 as well. You can't compare the talent difference. Holy crap, the Sox had some damn good prospects. 4 top 5 guys at different times over a 3 year stretch is insane. 

Quality>Quantity I guess. 

What's crazy is that they traded for 3 of them. 

Edited December 5, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

You're right actually, he did peak top 5 as well. You can't compare the talent difference. Holy crap, the Sox had some damn good prospects. 4 top 5 guys at different times over a 3 year stretch is insane. 

Quality>Quantity I guess. 

What's crazy is that they traded for all of them. 

Not Robert!

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Not Robert!

Yup, they didn't trade for him....but they did trade for 3 of them....and I guess the industry was starting to sour a bit on Giolito when they acquired him. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

17 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yup, they didn't trade for him....but they did trade for 3 of them....and I guess the industry was starting to sour a bit on Giolito when they acquired him. 

So are you ready to say RH = genius?   

[Dominikk85]

48 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The bottom line is that the Sox had 3 players that were probable 5+ WAR guys with the potential for more. They all hit. The Phillies never had one guy anywhere close to as good of a prospect as any of Giolito/Moncada/Robert. 

 

The Phillies also had a much worse starting situation because they didn't have several cost controlled players in their prime to trade.

Phillies really tried to ride the core of the 08/09 team till the end and were left with a bunch of expensive washed up guys that couldn't be traded. Kinda like the tigers too now.