Ducksnort Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 I haven't seen this being discussed anywhere else, feel free to move it if it needs to be. I thought it would be interesting to hear what everyone thinks, though. I don't think anyone really knows what exactly is going to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 No chance, almost everyone believes they won’t start the season on time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ducksnort Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 Just now, fathom said: No chance, almost everyone believes they won’t start the season on time Yeah, I think it really depends on the vaccine and how that all shakes out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 I am going to say no, but close. Maybe 120 to 140. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said: I am going to say no, but close. Maybe 120 to 140. Agreed. I'm more in the 100-120 range. If they're going to do 140 they might as well do 162. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Just now, Jack Parkman said: Agreed. I'm more in the 100-120 range. If they're going to do 140 they might as well do 162. Why? If they push the start of the season back by a month, how would they make up the games they missed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Just now, Jack Parkman said: Agreed. I'm more in the 100-120 range. If they're going to do 140 they might as well do 162. I think they will realize that they want to take the time of the entire season, but leave some gaps in the schedule for make ups which are going to be inevitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 I think they will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said: I think they will realize that they want to take the time of the entire season, but leave some gaps in the schedule for make ups which are going to be inevitable. Ok I didn't think of that. Makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MiddleCoastBias Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 29 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: I think they will realize that they want to take the time of the entire season, but leave some gaps in the schedule for make ups which are going to be inevitable. I was going to float this as an idea/question. Like I wonder if they would keep the same length of season on the calendar but trim the schedule to 140 games or less, gives everyone more off days that can be used to make up games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWINFan Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Things will have to change drastically in the near future for MLB to have a full season. Many are still resistant to wearing masks and social distancing. Dark days are ahead and I can't see the season starting on time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hogan873 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 I believe there will be a full season with gradual increasing attendance allowances. Hopefully to 100% by August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
he gone. Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Nope is my strong guess. I think they'll move Spring Training to everybody's respective homes - aka basically intrasquad games and that Spring Training will start when the season was set to start. My guess is a mid-May start and 100-120 game season. I do think you'll see attendance for all games (if allowable by each state/city). So i think you'll see 10k or so at Sox games for the first month maybe, and then move into 50% and possibly 75% dependent on the roll out of the vaccine. I think mostly by playoffs time that everything will be back to "normal" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 They can play 162 if they do it right. April and May should be the divisional setup they had last year.You play your division and the other division only. There also need to be a strict policy of mask wearing and staying out of contact with people. By the end of May the players should be vaccinated and good to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 No, because too many stadiums will have attendance limits early in the year, and this will drop revenue. Even if it's a 50% attendance limit, that's 20,000 tickets missing on opening day. Ownership will not pay full salaries knowing that they cannot receive full gate, and the PA will not agree to anything that reduces the contracts owners agreed to. This has nothing to do with player safety, it will be entirely about money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: No, because too many stadiums will have attendance limits early in the year, and this will drop revenue. Even if it's a 50% attendance limit, that's 20,000 tickets missing on opening day. Ownership will not pay full salaries knowing that they cannot receive full gate, and the PA will not agree to anything that reduces the contracts owners agreed to. This has nothing to do with player safety, it will be entirely about money. If they start fighting over money again, then it could be as little as a 60 or 80 game season. I honestly think that they're not going to come to an agreement and Manfred is going to have to impose a season at a number that the owners find palatable. I do not foresee fans at all this year. If they can get a labor deal for 2022? Sure, there should be fans depending on what the vaccine rollout is like. I don't know if they're having a season in 2022 because the labor discussions are going to be nasty. Both sides think the other is on a different planet, likely Uranus if getting specific. Edited December 7, 2020 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Just now, Jack Parkman said: If they start fighting over money again, then it could be as little as a 60 or 80 game season. I honestly think that they're not going to come to an agreement and Manfred is going to have to impose a season at a number that the owners find palatable. I do not foresee fans at all this year. If they can get a labor deal for 2022? Sure. I don't know if they're having a season next year because the labor discussions are going to be nasty. Both sides think the other is on Uranus. Woof, you make me seem like the most optimistic person on the planet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, fathom said: Woof, you make me seem like the most optimistic person on the planet. When I said next year I meant 2022. See edit. They didn't come to an agreement in 2020, why would anything be any different in 2021? Yeah, there's a vaccine rolling out but we're not going to be at herd immunity levels by October. I don't think fans would like to have to provide proof of vaccination to attend a game. Like I said, the MLB owners and MLBPA are on completely different planets and each side thinks the other is on Uranus. It's a joke, that basically implies that one party thinks the other is negotiating things that are non-negotiable, and vice versa. Edited December 7, 2020 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: If they start fighting over money again, then it could be as little as a 60 or 80 game season. I honestly think that they're not going to come to an agreement and Manfred is going to have to impose a season at a number that the owners find palatable. I do not foresee fans at all this year. If they can get a labor deal for 2022? Sure, there should be fans depending on what the vaccine rollout is like. I don't know if they're having a season in 2022 because the labor discussions are going to be nasty. Both sides think the other is on a different planet, likely Uranus if getting specific. I would bet you're right and ownership will impose a season lenght (do they have the right to do that from last year's agreement) but I would also expect more than 60-80 this year because once a vaccine is available it will slow the growth of hospitalizations and that will allow most states to permit some sort of gatherings. You can do >60 game seasons if you can put 50% of the ballpark full. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: I would bet you're right and ownership will impose a season lenght (do they have the right to do that from last year's agreement) but I would also expect more than 60-80 this year because once a vaccine is available it will slow the growth of hospitalizations and that will allow most states to permit some sort of gatherings. You can do >60 game seasons if you can put 50% of the ballpark full. It completely depends on how quickly Pfizer and Moderna can manufacture their vaccine safely and with the proper QA/QC, and how quickly and how many they can get where and at what time. I honestly think it's going to take them a lot of time, probably into June before we start seeing the first vaccinations, and who knows how long it will take them to get the 2nd round out. The other thing is that the demand for those vaccines covers, um, the entire 8.5B population of the planet. Who gets it first, where, and when will be a huge deal. Edited December 7, 2020 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said: It completely depends on how quickly Pfizer and Moderna can manufacture their vaccine safely and with the proper QA/QC, and how quickly and how many they can get where and at what time. I honestly think it's going to take them a lot of time, probably into June before we start seeing the first vaccinations, and who knows how long it will take them to get the 2nd round out. I mean, I don't know that they'll pull of 30 million by the end of the month like they're saying they hope to do, but it would be surprising if the first several million aren't available this month, and in January we're going to upgrade the people running the distribution efforts. I'm hoping I can get in sometime in ~March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: I mean, I don't know that they'll pull of 30 million by the end of the month like they're saying they hope to do, but it would be surprising if the first several million aren't available this month, and in January we're going to upgrade the people running the distribution efforts. I'm hoping I can get in sometime in ~March. Really? I didn't know they were that close to ready for manufacturing. I thought they weren't going to ship the 1st ones out until March/April or something like that. Also, nothing usually goes right in the 1st wave of manufacturing. There is always some delay or fuck up. I can't believe they were investing in manufacturing something that wasn't guaranteed to work. Seems risky from a business standpoint, but I'm glad they did it if that's the case. Lucky it's winter here as it would make sense that the US, Canada and Europe, and other cold weather climates get it first because of the behavior of coronaviruses. Edited December 7, 2020 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Just now, Jack Parkman said: Really? I didn't know they were that close to ready for manufacturing. I thought they weren't going to ship the 1st ones out until April or something like that. Lucky it's winter here as it would make sense that the US, Canada and Europe, and other cold weather climates get it first because of the behavior of coronaviruses. No, the goal is 10+ million doses of the Pfizer vaccine by the end of December, with 30 million being optimistic. The first doses are being distributed in Britain right now. They're hoping to be able to manufacture more doses than that starting in January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: No, the goal is 10+ million doses of the Pfizer vaccine by the end of December, with 30 million being optimistic. The first doses are being distributed in Britain right now. They're hoping to be able to manufacture more doses than that starting in January. The question is how long until we get to 50% vaccinated in the population? That's about the point when we're close enough to herd immunity for things to get back to life BC(before Covid) l. There would still be risks, but they'd be a lot smaller. Edited December 7, 2020 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 That may be late spring/early summer. But even 10% distribution, if targeted to the vulnerable groups, will dramatically reduce deaths and hospitalizations. Governments have clearly shown they will allow some people to get it and die as long as hospitals aren't being fully overwhelmed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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