Sox acquire Lance Lynn for Dane Dunning and Avery Weems

[joejoesox]

2 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

The fact that he’s a FA in a year and Sox could have just signed him then. 

that's exactly the reason why they made this deal lol.  jerry prefers a pitcher on a cheap/1 year deal vs expensive/5 year deal

[longshot7]

I heard a Rangers podcast speculate Lynn might be willing to extend if traded to the right place.  We'll see. -- not like the Sox to trade for a rental without a plan.

[ron883]

The more I think about this, the more I like it. Lance Lynn has been a top 5 pitcher in the entire MLB the past 2 seasons. He is a bona fide #1 starter. This is a HUGE addition to the team. Our starting rotation is playoff caliber now. Very strong 1-3 pitchers. 

The Cubs traded Gleyber Torres for half a season of Chapman. THAT is an overpay. They would do the trade again if they could, too.

Furthermore, it's possible the Sox could lock him up another year or two. He's old and he may want to take the guaranteed money. 

[mqr]

6 minutes ago, Sarava said:

I like adding Lynn. But what are they going to do a year from now when Lynn and Dunning are gone? I guess they're gambling that Kopech and Crochet will be ready then.

It’s more than likely they’d be looking for an upgrade from dunning anyway. 

[longshot7]

33 minutes ago, GradMc said:

Reinsdorf is never going after key marque acquisitions like Bauer and Springer.

The White Sox being run like a major market team in a market team will never happen with this ownership.  

 

Some of us remember the offseason when the Sox signed the #1 hitting and pitching FAs in the offseason...... and the team was still mediocre. (1997 btw)

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Lance Lynn is an Indiana boy. He still comes back to the Brownsburg, IN area (suburb of Indy). That could bode well for chances of an extension.

[Sarava]

6 minutes ago, mqr said:

It’s more than likely they’d be looking for an upgrade from dunning anyway. 

I looked at Dunning as likely a 3 or 4, but possibly between a 2 and 5. Its hard to envision them wanting to completely get rid of him a year from now. That's just a bad take. 

[ron883]

Just now, Sarava said:

I looked at Dunning as likely a 3 or 4, but possibly between a 2 and 5. Its hard to envision them wanting to completely get rid of him a year from now. That's just a bad take. 

If he had a Reynaldo Lopez-esque season, it's possible

[Jose Abreu]

1 hour ago, Quin said:

Not gonna lie, this looks like a cringey photoshop.

I thought this was possible too but someone asked Passan and it's real

 

[Jack Parkman]

28 minutes ago, mqr said:

With a lot less flexibility. 

What good does having flexibility do if you don't ever use it? 

[Jose Abreu]

I'm pretty much down the middle on this move. I really liked Dunning but Lynn is awesome and it feels good to be on this side of trades again. Hoping we can extend him for another year or two though. Lynn, Joc, and Q would be a good offseason. All three are very underrated on this board IMO

[mqr]

1 minute ago, Sarava said:

I looked at Dunning as likely a 3 or 4, but possibly between a 2 and 5. Its hard to envision them wanting to completely get rid of him a year from now. That's just a bad take. 

It’s incredibly unlikely that you would be comfortable going into 2021 with Dane Dunning as your 3rd starter.

hes thrown like 80 innings over two years and probably won’t get past like 140 this year.

He’s probably going to be a solid piece at some point, but they don’t have time to wait around and find out and there’s 10 other guys who could be just as good  

 

 

[chw42]

2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I thought this was possible too but someone asked Passan and it's real

 

Holy crap, did Jeff Passan just validate Not Steve Cishek? 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I thought this was possible too but someone asked Passan and it's real

 

Well holy fuck, that's more shocking to me than the Lynn trade itself. 

[YoYoIsMyHero]

5 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I thought this was possible too but someone asked Passan and it's real

 

Jeff Passan is the man. Gives NSC his due, and even gives him a few minutes to announce the trade first before he had to pull the trigger. 

[VAfan]

Dane Dunning in 2020. Here are his games.

1. Beat Detroit 5-3. No decision. Pitched 4.1 innings

2. Beat the Royals 5-2. Pitched 5 innings.

3. Beat the Royals 7-4. No decision. 4.2 innings.

4. Beat Pittsburgh 8-1. 6 innings.

5. Beat Minnesota 6-2. 7 innings

6. Lost to Cleveland 4-7. 4 innings.

7. Beat the Cubs 9-5. No decision. 3 innings

8. Lost to Oakland in the playoffs 6-4. Pitched .2 innings, gave up 2 baserunners and was pulled. 

He was given 6.56 runs support in the regular season games he started, never receiving less than 4 runs of support. 

So, in 8 games, Dunning made it to 5 or more innings 3 times, or 37.5% of the time. He gave up 0 runs twice (plus Oakland), and otherwise gave up 3, 3, 2, 4, and 5 runs. 

*************

Meanwhile, I'm not going to lay out all of Lance Lynn's starts. but in 13 starts, he never pitched LESS than 5 innings. He AVERAGED about 6.2 innings per start. 

Dunning gave up 17 runs (15 ER) in 34 innings. Lynn gave up 34 runs (31 ER) in 84 innings. But 10 of those 34 runs were in his last start against Houston. Otherwise, he gave up the following run totals in his starts, 0, 0, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4, 6, 1, 1, 3, 10.  (His only 2 bad games were against Houston.)

He received 4.26 runs per game in support, with 1 run twice, and 3 runs 4 times, plus 4 runs 3 times. In 7 games, Dunning had 4 runs once, 5 runs twice, plus single games of 6, 7, 8, and 9 runs. 

So, if you gave Lance Lynn the kind of run support Dane Dunning received in 2020, he would have been 11-2, or maybe 10-3. 

Plus, let's look at Lynn's 2019 season. 16-11, 3.67 ERA, 208 innings, 246 Ks, 141 ERA+, 7.5 WAR. 

Lance Lynn is a horse. He has the potential to pitch 200 innings. Go into or complete the 7th inning in a ton of his starts. 

**********

So how to evaluate the trade. 

1. The Sox are MUCH better in 2021 with Lance Lynn.  They have a workhorse pitcher they can slot into the top 3 spots who will keep them in just about every game, and will save their bullpen. 

2. Lance Lynn costs only $8 million for 2021. This is way below what his market value should be given his recent production. This won't prevent the Sox from making any other moves they want to make. 

3. Lance Lynn might be extended past 2021. He'll be 34 in May, so he won't command a huge deal for years 2022, and 2023.  He should be the kind of pitcher the Sox can afford. Of course we'd all like the Sox to spend more, but we're likely never going to get there. 

4. Dane Dunning is a maybe pitcher.  Who knows what Dunning's upside is?  It's probably not higher than a 4th or 5th starter, maybe a ceiling of a #3 starter. But for 2021, he wasn't going to give the Sox 30 starts, and he seldom pitched even 5 full innings.  

5. Dane Dunning is older than Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech and only a year younger than Reynaldo Lopez.  If Dunning were 23 or 24, you might be able to take his numbers and project him to become a better pitcher. But he's about to be 26. Lopez had pitched seasons of 188 and 184 innings by Dunning's age. So, even though you have more control of Dunning, he's not going to be a full time starter until 2022 at the earliest, when he'll be 27. The White Sox have lots more arms on the way who may have higher ceilings than Dane Dunning. 

6. Dane Dunning is NOT Shane Bieber. I just had to respond to the post that suggested Dunning's upside was Bieber. Bieber is YOUNGER than Dunning and has already pitched 406 ML innings compared to Dunning's 34.  To even make that comparison is just ridiculous. 

**********

7. Should the White Sox have just signed Trevor Bauer? 

Bauer, will be 30 in January, pitched since 2012, career ERA of 3.9, only had a sub-4 ERA in 2 of 9 seasons, total WAR of 17.5. 

Lynn, will be 34 in May 2021, pitched since 2011, career ERA of 3.57, has had a sub-4 ERA in 8 of 9 seasons (missed 2016), total WAR of 24.2. 

Also, in 2020, Bauer's best year, he fattened up by pitching against DET 2x, PIT 2x, KC 1X. He also faced MIL 3x, Cubs 2x, and White Sox 1x. 

Lynn has been the much more consistent pitcher of the 2. 

When you do a cost comparison, Lynn comes out well ahead of Bauer. 

************

My bottom line.

I'm good with this trade. I hope the Sox extend Lynn because I think he'll remain effective for a few more years. Just look at Charlie Morton's years when he was 33-35. Lynn could be as good, and will pitch more innings than Morton. 

I also don't believe Dunning is ready to carry much of a load, is pretty old for a guy just starting out, and the Sox have 3 RHPs ranked just below Dunning in their pipeline in Kelley, Stiever and Thompson, who are 19, 23, and 20.  Plus we still have Kopech and Cease who have more upside. 

So, GO SOX!

Edited December 8, 2020 by VAfan

[HOFHurt35]

10 minutes ago, Sarava said:

I looked at Dunning as likely a 3 or 4, but possibly between a 2 and 5. Its hard to envision them wanting to completely get rid of him a year from now. That's just a bad take. 

No way on any playing field is Dunning ahead of Kopech or Cease. 

[Vulture]

The Sox have got to add a high end bullpen arm at least. If not a closer, at least a top notch set up man to take over Bummer's role if he is moved to closer.

11 minutes ago, mqr said:

It’s incredibly unlikely that you would be comfortable going into 2021 with Dane Dunning as your 3rd starter.

hes thrown like 80 innings over two years and probably won’t get past like 140 this year.

He’s probably going to be a solid piece at some point, but they don’t have time to wait around and find out and there’s 10 other guys who could be just as good  

 

 

Had this the not happened, I would have expected a free agent signing to bump Dunning down. You don't replace pitching talent, you pile on pitching talent. I find it unlikely the Sox would have 13 better pitchers going into '21. Sure there's a chance he could face plant, but this is in fact a highly regarded prospect that looked like it in his call up. We're down to four that could be as good in the near future not ten. Guys like Kelley, Thompson and Dahquist are 2-3 years away from late season debuts, probably 3-4 from possibly contributing. 

Edited December 8, 2020 by Vulture

[ron883]

4 minutes ago, VAfan said:

Dane Dunning in 2020. Here's are his games.

1. Beat Detroit 5-3. No decision. Pitched 4.1 innings

2. Beat the Royals 5-2. Pitched 5 innings.

3. Beat the Royals 7-4. No decision. 4.2 innings.

4. Beat Pittsburgh 8-1. 6 innings.

5. Beat Minnesota 6-2. 7 innings

6. Lost to Cleveland 4-7. 4 innings.

7. Beat the Cubs 9-5. No decision. 3 innings

8. Lost to Oakland in the playoffs 6-4. Pitched .2 innings, gave up 2 baserunners and was pulled. 

He was given 6.56 runs support in the regular season games he started, never receiving less than 4 runs of support. 

So, in 8 games, Dunning made it to 5 or more innings 3 times, or 37.5% of the time. He gave up 0 runs twice (plus Oakland), and otherwise gave up 3, 3, 2, 4, and 5 runs. 

*************

Meanwhile, I'm not going to lay out all of Lance Lynn's starts. but in 13 starts, he never pitched LESS than 5 innings. He AVERAGED about 6.2 innings per start. 

Dunning gave up 17 runs (15 ER) in 34 innings. Lynn gave up 34 runs (31 ER) in 84 innings. But 10 of those 34 runs were in his last start against Houston. Otherwise, he gave up the following run totals in his starts, 0, 0, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4, 6, 1, 1, 3, 10.  (His only 2 bad games were against Houston.)

He received 4.26 runs per game in support, with 1 run twice, and 3 runs 4 times, plus 4 runs 3 times. In 7 games, Dunning had 4 runs once, 5 runs twice, plus single games of 6, 7, 8, and 9 runs. 

So, if you gave Lance Lynn the kind of run support Dane Dunning received in 2020, he would have been 11-2, or maybe 10-3. 

Plus, let's look at Lynn's 2019 season. 16-11, 3.67 ERA, 208 innings, 246 Ks, 141 ERA+, 7.5 WAR. 

Lance Lynn is a horse. He has the potential to pitch 200 innings. Go into or complete the 7th inning in a ton of his starts. 

**********

So how to evaluate the trade. 

1. The Sox are MUCH better in 2021 with Lance Lynn.  They have a workhorse pitcher they can slot into the top 3 spots who will keep them in just about every game, and will save their bullpen. 

2. Lance Lynn costs only $8 million for 2021. This is way below what his market value should be given his recent production. This won't prevent the Sox from making any other moves they want to make. 

3. Lance Lynn might be extended past 2021. He'll be 34 in May, so he won't command a huge deal for years 2022, and 2023.  He should be the kind of pitcher the Sox can afford. Of course we'd all like the Sox to spend more, but we're likely never going to get there. 

4. Dane Dunning is a maybe pitcher.  Who knows what Dunning's upside is?  It's probably not higher than a 4th or 5th starter, maybe a ceiling of a #3 starter. But for 2021, he wasn't going to give the Sox 30 starts, and he seldom pitched even 5 full innings.  

5. Dane Dunning is older than Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech and only a year younger than Reynaldo Lopez.  If Dunning were 23 or 24, you might be able to take his numbers and project him to become a better pitcher. But he's about to be 26. Lopez had pitched seasons of 188 and 184 innings by Dunning's age. So, even though you have more control of Dunning, he's not going to be a full time starter until 2022 at the earliest, when he'll be 27. The White Sox have lots more arms on the way who may have higher ceilings than Dane Dunning. 

6. Dane Dunning is NOT Shane Bieber. I just had to respond to the post that suggested Dunning's upside was Bieber. Bieber is YOUNGER than Dunning and has already pitched 406 ML innings compared to Dunning's 34.  To even make that comparison is just ridiculous. 

**********

7. Should the White Sox have just signed Trevor Bauer? 

Bauer, will be 30 in January, pitched since 2012, career ERA of 3.9, only had a sub-4 ERA in 2 of 9 seasons, total WAR of 17.5. 

Lynn, will be 34 in May 2021, pitched since 2011, career ERA of 3.57, has had a sub-4 ERA in 8 of 9 seasons (missed 2016), total WAR of 24.2. 

Also, in 2020, Bauer's best year, he fattened up by pitching against DET 2x, PIT 2x, KC 1X. He also faced MIL 3x, Cubs 2x, and White Sox 1x. 

Lynn has been the much more consistent pitcher of the 2. 

When you do a cost comparison, Lynn comes out well ahead of Bauer. 

************

My bottom line.

I'm good with this trade. I hope the Sox extend Lynn because I think he'll remain effective for a few more years. Just look at Charlie Morton's years when he was 33-35. Lynn could be as good, and will pitch more innings than Morton. 

I also don't believe Dunning is ready to carry much of a load, is pretty old for a guy just starting out, and the Sox have 3 RHPs ranked just below Dunning in their pipeline in Kelley, Stiever and Thompson, who are 19, 23, and 20.  Plus we still have Kopech and Cease who have more upside. 

So, GO SOX!

Excellent post. You clearly did your research. You make some great points, and I agree with most of them. 

[Vulture]

Lynn actually averaged more than 7 innings per start. 83/13. I think he was the only pitcher to do so in '20.

[mqr]

I would like to go on record that I hate the idea of giving Bauer or Springer enormous contracts. In my mind they already missed the opportunities to add huge contracts where it made sense.  
 

Machado was a fuck up. Wheeler was a fuck up. Bigger fuck up still was not targeting haper instead. These two though? Meh. 

Edited December 8, 2020 by mqr

[SoxAce]

28 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I thought this was possible too but someone asked Passan and it's real

 

Damn NotCishek basically just told @Quin and @ChiliIrishHammock24 to suck it.

Edited December 8, 2020 by SoxAce

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

5 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

Damn NotCishek basically just told @Quin and @ChiliIrishHammock24 to suck it.

Yup. I apologized and gave him his props on Twitter for it. Credit due, credit earned.

[Vulture]

Can we discuss Weems magically appearing at #10, a guy who is clearly more like a borderline top thirty at best, on BP's prospect list shortly before being included in this deal? Surely a major league baseball team isn't using a publication like BP as reference, yet this is quite the coincidence. Do the Sox have an inside man at BP? All I know is I'm taking their rankings with a massive shaker full of salt when preparing for a fantasy draft after this.

[flavum]

Good deal for the 2021 team if Lynn starts an ALCS game. With expanded postseason, just making it there is less of a thing. It’s now get there, and advance to the LCS. The Sox have a better shot at this now, so I’m good with it. Giolito, Lynn, Keuchel, Cease, plus another acquisition - and Kopech, Lopez, etc is a good place to be going into spring training. 

 

Edited December 8, 2020 by flavum