It's not the player, it's the process

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Lance Lynn is an upgrade for next year; a substantial one over the uncertainty they still had in their youthful rotation. Lynn is a horse - both in size and durability, he could wear Bartolo Colon as a backpack and still throw 200 innings. There are positives about Lynn, as has been recently documented he added a cutter which enabled him to find much success following a season in which his career looked like it might be coming to a close. He has the chance of being a top tier pitcher, even if I wouldn't be shocked to see him fall back into the 3-4 fWAR range - which would still be a substantial upgrade.

Last season, Lynn was good, but not as great as he had been the year prior; his FIP trickled over 4, but that was driven heavily by a very poor last start. Lynn will also be 34 years old, but he strikes me as a pitcher who is more likely than not to be durable and age as gracefully as his body jiggles when he delivers a pitch to home.

The problem with Lynn isn't the player - who is a clear upgrade - but the process by which the Sox are moving towards their competitive window.

Rick Hahn told us for the past four years that when the window was open, the White Sox would have no interest in trading assets for Rentals. They would fill the gaps with their financial flexibility; utilizing the fact that they had not spent money for the past six years, flush with cash, the White Sox would fill their remaining holes with financial investments in FA or, as I assumed, by absorbing big money contracts to limit any return they'd have to give in trades. There were pieces out there that met this claim; a Darvish/Heyward package almost seemed like a perfect fit for a team that needed a defensive RF who could swing a little, and a rotation anchor.

The White Sox instead traded for a pitcher not just because he was good, but also because he was cheap - make no mistake about it, the 8 million dollar price tag was every bit as enticing as his production that came along with it. The White Sox could have absorbed salary from multiple franchises to take on a high quality SP without surrendering a viable asset, but instead they went the route of doing exactly what they promised they wouldn't; trading a viable asset for a one year rental at the beginning of the window.

Don't blame the fans for trusting the word of their FO; "THE MONEY WILL BE SPENT" Kenny Williams embarrassingly claimed following the White Sox falling out with Manny Machado. The window is open, and the White Sox are continuing to operate like a small market team. Following the Lynn trade, and barring an unforeseen signing of someone like Springer (which is not happening), the White Sox are selling their fans on being all-in next year... and their payroll likely won't be in the top 10 in all of baseball. That's like screaming "I'm all in" at a poker table, when you have only 3 dollars left at a $1/$2 table.

Dane Dunning was a nice piece, but I think Sox fans enjoyed him much more due to the pitchers around him. Dane threw strikes, while other young arms - namely Cease - struggled significantly to do so. As a fan, strikes are enjoyable but the Sox also could not have sold higher on Dane. Coming off Tommy John and turning 27 next year, Dunning was likely nearing a finished product. He also was sheltered by the White Sox last year; making 5 of his 8 starts worse one of the five worst offenses in MLB. Could he continue in a long line of recent arms who greatly exceeded expectations due to elite command? Sure, he absolutely could... but he could also be out of baseball in two years. Pitching is hard, and pitchers always have an edge when they are unknown. I have always said a key to a good rebuild is trading away the assets you know the industry overvalues; only time will tell if the White Sox chose the right starter to move.

The White Sox are definitely better going into next year by a good bit; they needed a horse and durable arm to throw out there and they got exactly that. The problem isn't the player, but it's that we all trusted the process and the process turned out to be one Lance Lynn sized pile of shit sold by a cheap ownership group who had no intention on ever repaying the fans for the misery they were put through by not even trying to put a viable MLB product on the field.

[South Side Hit Men]

The process was discarded when Reinsdorf big timed Hahn and hired the criminal scumbag manager.

[southsideirish71]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Lance Lynn is an upgrade for next year; a substantial one over the uncertainty they still had in their youthful rotation. Lynn is a horse - both in size and durability, he could wear Bartolo Colon as a backpack and still throw 200 innings. There are positives about Lynn, as has been recently documented he added a cutter which enabled him to find much success following a season in which his career looked like it might be coming to a close. He has the chance of being a top tier pitcher, even if I wouldn't be shocked to see him fall back into the 3-4 fWAR range - which would still be a substantial upgrade.

Last season, Lynn was good, but not as great as he had been the year prior; his FIP trickled over 4, but that was driven heavily by a very poor last start. Lynn will also be 34 years old, but he strikes me as a pitcher who is more likely than not to be durable and age as gracefully as his body jiggles when he delivers a pitch to home.

The problem with Lynn isn't the player - who is a clear upgrade - but the process by which the Sox are moving towards their competitive window.

Rick Hahn told us for the past four years that when the window was open, the White Sox would have no interest in trading assets for Rentals. They would fill the gaps with their financial flexibility; utilizing the fact that they had not spent money for the past six years, flush with cash, the White Sox would fill their remaining holes with financial investments in FA or, as I assumed, by absorbing big money contracts to limit any return they'd have to give in trades. There were pieces out there that met this claim; a Darvish/Heyward package almost seemed like a perfect fit for a team that needed a defensive RF who could swing a little, and a rotation anchor.

 The White Sox instead traded for a pitcher not just because he was good, but also because he was cheap - make no mistake about it, the 8 million dollar price tag was every bit as enticing as his production that came along with it. The White Sox could have absorbed salary from multiple franchises to take on a high quality SP without surrendering a viable asset, but instead they went the route of doing exactly what they promised they wouldn't; trading a viable asset for a one year rental at the beginning of the window.

Don't blame the fans for trusting the word of their FO; "THE MONEY WILL BE SPENT" Kenny Williams embarrassingly claimed following the White Sox falling out with Manny Machado. The window is open, and the White Sox are continuing to operate like a small market team. Following the Lynn trade, and barring an unforeseen signing of someone like Springer (which is not happening), the White Sox are selling their fans on being all-in next year... and their payroll likely won't be in the top 10 in all of baseball. That's like screaming "I'm all in" at a poker table, when you have only 3 dollars left at a $1/$2 table.

Dane Dunning was a nice piece, but I think Sox fans enjoyed him much more due to the pitchers around him. Dane threw strikes, while other young arms - namely Cease - struggled significantly to do so. As a fan, strikes are enjoyable but the Sox also could not have sold higher on Dane. Coming off Tommy John and turning 27 next year, Dunning was likely nearing a finished product. He also was sheltered by the White Sox last year; making 5 of his 8 starts worse one of the five worst offenses in MLB. Could he continue in a long line of recent arms who greatly exceeded expectations due to elite command? Sure, he absolutely could... but he could also be out of baseball in two years. Pitching is hard, and pitchers always have an edge when they are unknown. I have always said a key to a good rebuild is trading away the assets you know the industry overvalues; only time will tell if the White Sox chose the right starter to move.

The White Sox are definitely better going into next year by a good bit; they needed a horse and durable arm to throw out there and they got exactly that. The problem isn't the player, but it's that we all trusted the process and the process turned out to be one Lance Lynn sized pile of shit sold by a cheap ownership group who had no intention on ever repaying the fans for the misery they were put through by not even trying to put a viable MLB product on the field.

Take everything Hahn said with a grain of salt.   Rick is no longer in charge of the plan.  TLR+JR are.   If Hahn had his way TLR is not the manager of this team.  JR has given TLR 3 years of a contract to make a run.  They will do everything in their power to push all chips in.  Well by chips we mean prospects and other bargain bin acquisitions.   JR will spend.  But he will sprinkle it across multiple mediocre pick ups over a big named guy to tip us over the top.  Lighting in the bottle was invented here.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, southsideirish71 said:

Take everything Hahn said with a grain of salt.   Rick is no longer in charge of the plan.  TLR+JR are.   If Hahn had his way TLR is not the manager of this team.  JR has given TLR 3 years of a contract to make a run.  They will do everything in their power to push all chips in.  Well by chips we mean prospects and other bargain bin acquisitions.   JR will spend.  But he will sprinkle it across multiple mediocre pick ups over a big named guy to tip us over the top.  Lighting in the bottle was invented here.  

Rick is the General Manager; his words still matter. If he has no power to make decisions then he shouldn't be making statements such as that and he should likely head somewhere else.

Fans aren't the bad guys for expecting their team to follow through on their claims from the past.

[Buehrle>Wood]

7 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

The process was discarded when Reinsdorf big timed Hahn and hired the criminal scumbag manager.

Lance Lynn wouldn't be here without La Russa. Praise Tony

[southsideirish71]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Rick is the General Manager; his words still matter. If he has no power to make decisions then he shouldn't be making statements such as that and he should likely head somewhere else.

 Fans aren't the bad guys for expecting their team to follow through on their claims from the past.

Look at Hahns presser after they let Renteria go and see him talk about his future manager.  Then look at what was hired.  Do you think he was describing TLR.  His statements were made when he was in charge of things.  Think about it this way.  He has architected a rebuild and just as this is about to take off.  Dad comes in and grounds him and takes over.  

[South Side Hit Men]

9 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Lance Lynn wouldn't be here without La Russa. Praise Tony

The last time Lance Lynn pitched....

Gave up 15 runs to Houston in 11 innings. Better hope he improves against good teams since he and his 4.80 Playoff ERA is considered a "playoff ace."

Edited December 8, 2020 by South Side Hit Men

[RagahRagah]

I rarely say I agree with Ray but this is spot on. There are a lot of obvious ways this could go wrong. The front office can't possibly be dumb enough to not realize this... can they?

Edited December 8, 2020 by RagahRagah

[SoCalChiSox]

As others have said, its not really in Rick's hands anymore and so I cannot really blame him for this. He had a vision as to how this window would work and the principles that would govern it but JR has pretty much torched that. He's gonna have to fight TLR just to have a say in the decisions now, much less have any veto power. 

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

The last time Lance Lynn pitched....

Gave up 15 runs to Houston in 11 innings. Better hope he improves against good teams since he and his 4.80 Playoff ERA is considered a "playoff ace."

My concern with Lynn is moreso his 2017/2018 seasons than anything else. I always worry about late career resurgences, and I'm always weary that he could easily revert back to that form of production; which, isn't great. That said, his changes are very real but for how long I'm not sure.

[SoxAce]

1 minute ago, RagahRagah said:

I rarely say I agree with Ray but this is spot on.

Almost like he had to sleep on the deal then posted today considering his takes yesterday.  But yea it was a very solid post.

[SonofaRoache]

I am torn on this. I would have liked to add another nice piece on our end and gotten a better deal longer term. I am also okay with Lynn for 3 years as he'd be a very good number 3 on a winning team. But this being said, if Lynn is your guy there is no reason you can't add Springer or Bauer. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

Almost like he had to sleep on the deal then posted today considering his takes yesterday.  But yea it was a very solid post.

My takes yesterday we're pretty much the same thing but saddled with late night "this shit again" emotions; I wasn't glowingly endorsing Dunning, and I wasn't hating Lynn. I still have my doubts about Lynn being a 5-6 fWAR pitcher, and I certainly would take the under if the number was available to me. I still am not in love with a rejuvenation driven by a cutter, but I'm also a huge advocate for durability being as valuable for an arm as stuff. A pitcher can't produce if he can't stay healthy. Lynn is going to go out there and take the ball every 5th day, and go deep into games.

My issue yesterday had more to do with the process, but it was expressed out of frustration much more so than out of logical analysis.

I pointed out that Dunning's numbers were a smoke screen given his competition and that this could be peak Dane value. I'm just really frustrated with the lack of spending, and I can't help but think that Lynns price was every bit as enticing to the White Sox as his production.

All in all, I'm excited for next year - in which I, the guy who argues coaches mean very little, will blame every loss on Tony La Russa - but I think this is a real bad sign going forward for how the Sox are going to support and supplement their young core.

I also know Sox fans were joking about this, but I have no idea why we had to include Weems. I get that people here haven't heard of him and think BP is being out of town stupid, but some scouts there clearly like the guy and it's frustrating that are throw in had to be an asset valued well by even a single publication.

Edited December 8, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[southsider2k5]

20 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

Look at Hahns presser after they let Renteria go and see him talk about his future manager.  Then look at what was hired.  Do you think he was describing TLR.  His statements were made when he was in charge of things.  Think about it this way.  He has architected a rebuild and just as this is about to take off.  Dad comes in and grounds him and takes over.  

Plus Hahn has already said he will mislead people when he doesn't think it is beneficial for the public to know what is happening behind the scenes.

[SonofaRoache]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

My takes yesterday we're pretty much the same thing but saddled with late night "this shit again" emotions; I wasn't glowingly endorsing Dunning, and I wasn't hating Lynn. I still have my doubts about Lynn being a 5-6 fWAR pitcher, and I certainly would take the under if the number was available to me. I still am not in love with a rejuvenation driven by a cutter, but I'm also a huge advocate for durability being as valuable for an arm as stuff. A pitcher can't produce if he can't stay healthy. Lynn is going to go out there and take the ball every 5th day, and go deep into games.

My issue yesterday had more to do with the process, but it was expressed out of frustration much more so than out of logical analysis.

I pointed out that Dunning's numbers were a smoke screen given his competition and that this could be peak Dane value. I'm just really frustrated with the lack of spending, and I can't help but think that Lynns price was every bit as enticing to the White Sox as his production.

All in all, I'm excited for next year - in which I, the guy who argues coaches mean very little, will blame every loss on Tony La Russa - but I think this is a real bad sign going forward for how the Sox are going to support and supplement their young core.

I'm gonna have to agree with this. I'd like this more if we sign a big fish as well in Bauer or Springer. I don't like half assing the rebuild in any way. They worked hard to get here so they should finish it strong and let the cards fall where they may. You can't get cheap and dumb now. 

Edited December 8, 2020 by SonofaRoache

[Dam8610]

The only place I disagree with you is the notion that Dunning is a finished product. He still has upside IMO. 2021 will be his age 26 season, not 27. Corey Kluber did not have a good season until his age 27 season. Everyone keeps saying these are outliers, and of course they are, any Cy Young winning pitcher is an outlier, but I can find examples littered throughout baseball of pitchers with mediocre stuff and great command who are solid mid rotation starters or better. The asset given up was a valuable asset, and very definitely could come back to bite the White Sox, even as early as 2021. Steiver should've been the top end of this deal, not Dunning.

[TheFutureIsNear]

Fans need to give up on the fairly tale that the Sox are going to build some decade long dynasty. Not going to happen. Go for the World Series when you can and this move signifies that. If this is the only major move made you can b****, but until then you’re just whining for the sake of whining 

[chetkincaid]

44 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

Take everything Hahn said with a grain of salt.   Rick is no longer in charge of the plan.  TLR+JR are.   If Hahn had his way TLR is not the manager of this team.  JR has given TLR 3 years of a contract to make a run.  They will do everything in their power to push all chips in.  Well by chips we mean prospects and other bargain bin acquisitions.   JR will spend.  But he will sprinkle it across multiple mediocre pick ups over a big named guy to tip us over the top.  Lighting in the bottle was invented here.  

This feels disgusting. What an indictment of ownership.

I kind of hope Hahn and KW leave.

[Dam8610]

6 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Fans need to give up on the fairy tale that the Sox are going to build some decade long dynasty.

Well the front office is certainly helping with that by giving up cost controlled assets for rentals. Whether we want to believe in that "fairy tale" or not, the front office is making the potential for it to be a reality into an impossibility. This alone won't do it, but more moves like it certainly would.

[SonofaRoache]

10 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Fans need to give up on the fairly tale that the Sox are going to build some decade long dynasty. Not going to happen. Go for the World Series when you can and this move signifies that. If this is the only major move made you can b****, but until then you’re just whining for the sake of whining 

This is not necessarily true. If our core works out we can stretch this thing to 8 years of competing if we do it right. We won't win it all every year, but our hats can be in the ring. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

One concern that I think many of us haven't really addressed is there is obviously a real possibility that Kopech and Cease are not good. I like the stuff and the ceiling, but if both fall flat on their face next season the White Sox are entering the 2021 off-season needing to fill three rotation spots with the 4th one opening up the next off-season. That's less than ideal to say the least, which is why I thought control was so important in this deal.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

17 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Fans need to give up on the fairly tale that the Sox are going to build some decade long dynasty. Not going to happen. Go for the World Series when you can and this move signifies that. If this is the only major move made you can b****, but until then you’re just whining for the sake of whining 

I didn't buy into the team literally not trying to even put MLB players on the field for 4-5 years so that they could be competitive for two years. The rebuild has to result in a competitive window longer than the rebuild took otherwise it's a failure imo.

[KrankinSox]

Y'all are a bunch of boners. That is all.

[fathom]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I didn't buy into the team literally not trying to even put MLB players on the field for 4-5 years so that they could be competitive for two years. The rebuild has to result in a competitive window longer than the rebuild took otherwise it's a failure imo.

Two years of competitiveness now?  Good god, I’m the pessimist?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, fathom said:

Two years of competitiveness now?  Good god, I’m the pessimist?

I was replying to his post; I don't believe it'll be two years and done. I do have concerns about entering next off-season having to fill 3 SP rotation spots if Kopech and Cease aren't good.