Trevor Bauer v. Lance Lynn

[VAfan]

Here are two stat lines using Baseball References averages over 162 games.

14 W - 10 L, 3.57 ERA, 196 IP, 73 BB, 194 K, 116 ERA+, 3.62 FIP, 2.67 K/BB ratio, 24.2 career WAR in 9 seasons

13 W - 11 L, 3.90 ERA, 202 IP, 77 BB, 217 K, 113 ERA+, 3.85 FIP, 2.82 K/BB ratio, 17.5 career WAR in 9 seasons.

Which of these two stat lines would you rather have? 

Which one is Lance Lynn and which one is Trevor Bauer? 

**********

Lance Lynn has the first line. Now, he's older, and will turn 34 in May. Bauer will turn 30 in January. But he's also a whole lot cheaper. 

And if you think that Bauer is just going to repeat his Cy Young numbers on a full season when having to play outside the AL/NL Central, then look at Bauer's 2019 season, which was split between Cleveland and Cincy (with no DH):

11-13, 4.48 ERA, 213 innings, 83 BB, 253 K, 106 ERA+, 4.34 FIP, 3.09 K/BB ratio, 1.1 WAR. 

Here's Lance Lynn's 2019 season

16-11, 3.67 ERA, 208.1 innings, 59 BB, 256 Ks, 141 ERA+, 3.13 FIP, 4.17 K/BB ratio, 7.5 WAR.

So, why is everyone clamoring for Bauer over Lynn? 

Younger, yes. Cheaper, no. Better pitcher, maybe. More reliable, no. 

The Sox have Lance Lynn for one year at $8M. They can probably extend him for another two years for Keuchel money, or less. If so, they would spend less for three years of Lynn than Bauer will likely get over the next two years, and may end up with the better pitcher. 

[Dam8610]

3 minutes ago, VAfan said:

Here are two stat lines using Baseball References averages over 162 games.

14 W - 10 L, 3.57 ERA, 196 IP, 73 BB, 194 K, 116 ERA+, 3.62 FIP, 2.67 K/BB ratio, 24.2 career WAR in 9 seasons

13 W - 11 L, 3.90 ERA, 202 IP, 77 BB, 217 K, 113 ERA+, 3.85 FIP, 2.82 K/BB ratio, 17.5 career WAR in 9 seasons.

Which of these two stat lines would you rather have? 

Which one is Lance Lynn and which one is Trevor Bauer? 

**********

Lance Lynn has the first line. Now, he's older, and will turn 34 in May. Bauer will turn 30 in January. But he's also a whole lot cheaper. 

And if you think that Bauer is just going to repeat his Cy Young numbers on a full season when having to play outside the AL/NL Central, then look at Bauer's 2019 season, which was split between Cleveland and Cincy (with no DH):

11-13, 4.48 ERA, 213 innings, 83 BB, 253 K, 106 ERA+, 4.34 FIP, 3.09 K/BB ratio, 1.1 WAR. 

Here's Lance Lynn's 2019 season

16-11, 3.67 ERA, 208.1 innings, 59 BB, 256 Ks, 141 ERA+, 3.13 FIP, 4.17 K/BB ratio, 7.5 WAR.

So, why is everyone clamoring for Bauer over Lynn? 

Younger, yes. Cheaper, no. Better pitcher, maybe. More reliable, no. 

The Sox have Lance Lynn for one year at $8M. They can probably extend him for another two years for Keuchel money, or less. If so, they would spend less for three years of Lynn than Bauer will likely get over the next two years, and may end up with the better pitcher. 

Now do 2018.

[southsideirish71]

7 minutes ago, VAfan said:

Here are two stat lines using Baseball References averages over 162 games.

14 W - 10 L, 3.57 ERA, 196 IP, 73 BB, 194 K, 116 ERA+, 3.62 FIP, 2.67 K/BB ratio, 24.2 career WAR in 9 seasons

13 W - 11 L, 3.90 ERA, 202 IP, 77 BB, 217 K, 113 ERA+, 3.85 FIP, 2.82 K/BB ratio, 17.5 career WAR in 9 seasons.

Which of these two stat lines would you rather have? 

Which one is Lance Lynn and which one is Trevor Bauer? 

**********

Lance Lynn has the first line. Now, he's older, and will turn 34 in May. Bauer will turn 30 in January. But he's also a whole lot cheaper. 

 And if you think that Bauer is just going to repeat his Cy Young numbers on a full season when having to play outside the AL/NL Central, then look at Bauer's 2019 season, which was split between Cleveland and Cincy (with no DH):

11-13, 4.48 ERA, 213 innings, 83 BB, 253 K, 106 ERA+, 4.34 FIP, 3.09 K/BB ratio, 1.1 WAR. 

Here's Lance Lynn's 2019 season

16-11, 3.67 ERA, 208.1 innings, 59 BB, 256 Ks, 141 ERA+, 3.13 FIP, 4.17 K/BB ratio, 7.5 WAR.

So, why is everyone clamoring for Bauer over Lynn? 

Younger, yes. Cheaper, no. Better pitcher, maybe. More reliable, no. 

The Sox have Lance Lynn for one year at $8M. They can probably extend him for another two years for Keuchel money, or less. If so, they would spend less for three years of Lynn than Bauer will likely get over the next two years, and may end up with the better pitcher. 

Great he is cheaper.  He is also under control only for a year. In the end I believe our run is more than for 2021.  What exactly are we saving this money for again.  Its obviously not for long term primary acquisitions.  We keep dumpster diving year after year and then find players that qualify as cheap on the contract status at the end of their contract or older players that are damaged in one way or another who are willing to sign short term deals to increase their value.

Edited December 8, 2020 by southsideirish71

[wegner]

I'm looking forward to the Trevor Bauer & Lance Lynn thread!!!

[Dam8610]

Just now, wegner said:

I'm looking forward to the Trevor Bauer & Lance Lynn thread!!!

Keep the dream alive, as long as you realize it's only a dream.

[wegner]

3 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Keep the dream alive, as long as you realize it's only a dream.

“Hold fast to dreams,
For if dreams die
Life is a broken-winged bird,
That cannot fly.”
― Langston Hughes

[VAfan]

48 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Now do 2018.

2018 is Bauer's only great season out of 9, if you discount this year because it was shortened and only against limited opponents. 

Lynn has been the more consistent pitcher.  Bauer might be the better choice going forward for the next 3-4 years, but he isn't reliable enough to give a big 4-5 year contract to, and has said himself he'd prefer a one year deal. 

So if it's Lynn at $8M for one year v. Bauer at $25M (just pulling a number out of a hat) for one year, I know which deal I'd take if I were the Sox. 

[Dam8610]

2 minutes ago, VAfan said:

2018 is Bauer's only great season out of 9, if you discount this year because it was shortened and only against limited opponents. 

Lynn has been the more consistent pitcher.  Bauer might be the better choice going forward for the next 3-4 years, but he isn't reliable enough to give a big 4-5 year contract to, and has said himself he'd prefer a one year deal. 

So if it's Lynn at $8M for one year v. Bauer at $25M (just pulling a number out of a hat) for one year, I know which deal I'd take if I were the Sox. 

"If you take a whole bunch of relevant information out, you can easily argue Lance Lynn is better than Trevor Bauer." No kidding, I was pointing out that you were leaving out relevant information. Bauer is 5.3 WAR/162 over the last 3 years, entering his age 30 season, and only costs money. Lynn is 4.6 WAR/162 over the last 3 years, entering his age 34 season, and cost 6 years of Dunning, who reasonably could produce 15-25 WAR over that timeframe. It's Bauer in a no contest when discussing which pitcher would be better for the team both in 2021 and long term.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

11 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

"If you take a whole bunch of relevant information out, you can easily argue Lance Lynn is better than Trevor Bauer." No kidding, I was pointing out that you were leaving out relevant information. Bauer is 5.3 WAR/162 over the last 3 years, entering his age 30 season, and only costs money. Lynn is 4.6 WAR/162 over the last 3 years, entering his age 34 season, and cost 6 years of Dunning, who reasonably could produce 15-25 WAR over that timeframe. It's Bauer in a no contest when discussing which pitcher would be better for the team both in 2021 and long term.

Why do people keep saying Bauer “only costs money”? Are you all forgetting the draft pick compensation? A pick that won’t be far behind #29 overall where Dunning was once selected.

[Dam8610]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Why do people keep saying Bauer “only costs money”? Are you all forgetting the draft pick compensation? A pick that won’t be far behind #29 overall where Dunning was once selected.

It will be over 30 picks behind #29, and getting a Dane Dunning out of a pick at the end of Round 1 is incredibly rare. Yes, there's a draft pick that's lost. The average WAR of that draft pick is probably 2. Let's round up and call it 5, which is a huge roundup, by the way. Losing 5 WAR to get 20-25 makes a lot of sense. Losing 15 WAR to get 5 does not, and that's assuming Lynn gives you a 5 WAR season.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

It will be over 30 picks behind #29, and getting a Dane Dunning out of a pick at the end of Round 1 is incredibly rare. Yes, there's a draft pick that's lost. The average WAR of that draft pick is probably 2. Let's round up and call it 5, which is a huge roundup, by the way. Losing 5 WAR to get 20-25 makes a lot of sense. Losing 15 WAR to get 5 does not, and that's assuming Lynn gives you a 5 WAR season.

It’s still something. It’s not “only money”

[Dam8610]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

It’s still something. It’s not “only money”

+20 vs -10 seems like a no brainer.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

7 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

+20 vs -10 seems like a no brainer.

You missed the point

[nitetrain8601]

30 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You missed the point

I don't think he has. You can't leave out relevant information. No reason why the Sox should be penny pinching like they are.

Edited December 9, 2020 by nitetrain8601

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Just now, nitetrain8601 said:

I don't think he has. You can't leave out relevant information. No reason why the Sox should be pinny pinching like they are.

What information did I leave out? It’s everyone else leaving out relevant info by saying signing Bauer is “just money”. That’s factually incorrect. No opinions. Just wrong. You can downplay the value of the lost draft pick but it’s certainly worth “something”

[Dam8610]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

What information did I leave out? It’s everyone else leaving out relevant info by saying signing Bauer is “just money”. That’s factually incorrect. No opinions. Just wrong. You can downplay the value of the lost draft pick but it’s certainly worth “something”

That's fair, but there's no comparison between the value of an average 2nd round pick and current Dane Dunning.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

That's fair, but there's no comparison between the value of an average 2nd round pick and current Dane Dunning.

It’s a comp pick after the first round, no? Better than a second round pick.

Jared Kelley was a second round pick for the Sox in 2020. Will he turn out better than Dunning? Probably not but he very well could. There’s a reason many teams have shied away from signing free agents with QO attached (and also why the union wants that rule changed). Because those lost draft picks have real value.

[SCCWS]

It is fun to compare Bauer and Lynn. Hell, we could  also compare  Eaton and Springer. Some portion of the fan base had dreams of adding Bauer and/or Springer but the FO didn't. So now we need some bullpen help and another starter (?) and start counting down to when pitchers and catchers report. 

[Dam8610]

Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

It’s a comp pick after the first round, no? Better than a second round pick.

Jared Kelley was a second round pick for the Sox in 2020. Will he turn out better than Dunning? Probably not but he very well could. There’s a reason many teams have shied away from signing free agents with QO attached (and also why the union wants that rule changed). Because those lost draft picks have real value.

The give up is a 2nd round pick for the White Sox. I don't know or care what the Reds get.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Just now, Dam8610 said:

The give up is a 2nd round pick for the White Sox. I don't know or care what the Reds get.

True. So it would be like losing Jared Kelley, org no. 5 prospect and 55 FV. That’s still “something.”

[Dam8610]

Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

True. So it would be like losing Jared Kelley, org no. 5 prospect and 55 FV. That’s still “something.”

The average 2nd rounder is not even close to Jared Kelley and to pretend that's the case is incredibly disingenuous. Jared Kelley was a Top 15 talent who made it to the Sox 2nd round pick likely because they promised him Top 15 money and no one else would give it to him. The Sox aren't going to do that every draft and the opportunity doesn't exist in most drafts.

[Blackout Friday]

Lance Lynn was traded for market value. Move the fuck on. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

34 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

The average 2nd rounder is not even close to Jared Kelley and to pretend that's the case is incredibly disingenuous. Jared Kelley was a Top 15 talent who made it to the Sox 2nd round pick likely because they promised him Top 15 money and no one else would give it to him. The Sox aren't going to do that every draft and the opportunity doesn't exist in most drafts.

Ok, Matthew Thompson org no. 7 prospect 2019 second rounder.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

8 hours ago, wegner said:

“Hold fast to dreams,
For if dreams die
Life is a broken-winged bird,
That cannot fly.”
― Langston Hughes

Rose are Red,

Violets are blue,

We got Lance Lynn,

I want Bauer too.

[wegner]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Rose are Red,

Violets are blue,

We got Lance Lynn,

I want Bauer too.

You're my favorite poet Cali