Trevor Bauer v. Lance Lynn

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Just now, wegner said:

You're my favorite poet Cali 

I don't want to be ,

a broken-winged bird

 my flight without power

tis certain a cat devours.

[RagahRagah]

45 minutes ago, Blackout Friday said:

Lance Lynn was traded for market value. Move the fuck on. 

If I had a dollar for every person that missed/ignored the point today alone I wouldn't need to work for a while.

[Dam8610]

9 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Ok, Matthew Thompson org no. 7 prospect 2019 second rounder.

That's more accurate, because Thompson is a lottery ticket who's way more likely than not at this point to flame out and never reach MLB, which is why the average WAR of a 2nd round pick is less than 5.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

That's more accurate, because Thompson is a lottery ticket who's way more likely than not at this point to flame out and never reach MLB, which is why the average WAR of a 2nd round pick is less than 5.

He’s still worth something. I know Mazara didn’t work out but he was traded for the Sox 2018 2nd round pick. Someone like Thompson could easily land you a high leverage reliever in July.

[Dam8610]

9 hours ago, Blackout Friday said:

Lance Lynn was traded for market value. Move the fuck on. 

I disagree with this premise. So do a lot of others here. If you believe your stated premise and don't wish to discuss it further, take your own advice and move the fuck on.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

And tbh, assuming someone like Dunning is going to be worth 15-25 WAR over the next 6 seasons is silly. If we are going to play the game of second round picks only average 5 WAR over their careers or whatever, odds are someone like Dunning at this point in his career is more likely to reach less than 10 WAR for his career than 15+. If we are going to go by the odds and historical averages. Just sayin

[Dam8610]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

He’s still worth something. I know Mazara didn’t work out but he was traded for the Sox 2018 2nd round pick. Someone like Thompson could easily land you a high leverage reliever in July.

That's value creation. That doesn't change the value of a 2nd round pick. The average 2nd rounder still never reaches MLB.

[Dam8610]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And tbh, assuming someone like Dunning is going to be worth 15-25 WAR over the next 6 seasons is silly. If we are going to play the game of second round picks only average 5 WAR over their careers or whatever, odds are someone like Dunning at this point in his career is more likely to reach less than 10 WAR for his career than 15+. If we are going to go by the odds and historical averages. Just sayin

Dunning being worth 15-25 WAR over the next 6 seasons is way more likely than Thompson being worth 1.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, Dam8610 said:

Dunning being worth 15-25 WAR over the next 6 seasons is way more likely than Thompson being worth 1.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

According to that article, the average WAR for a 55 FV pitcher is 3.7 (which I believe Dunning was heading into 2020). Not much better than that second round pick eh? And certainly nowhere near the 15-25 over 6 season “assumption” you’ve been putting out there...

Edited December 9, 2020 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

6 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

That's value creation. That doesn't change the value of a 2nd round pick. The average 2nd rounder still never reaches MLB.

And the average 55 FV pitcher like Dunning achieves 3.7 WAR (median 2.2 WAR). Sounds like you’re the one reaching here.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

And by the way, 55 FV for Dunning is extremely generous. Fangraphs has him at 45 FV.

[Dam8610]

4 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

A link without any explanation. Are you trying to show that 2 years ago, FanGraphs thought Dunning was worth $18 million? Because things have happened in the intervening two years.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, Dam8610 said:

A link without any explanation. Are you trying to show that 2 years ago, FanGraphs thought Dunning was worth $18 million? Because things have happened in the intervening two years.

Read subsequent posts. What was Dunning’s FV heading into the shortened 2020 season? You seem to be attributing a tremendous increase in Dunning’s value based on an extremely SSS and starts against terrible teams like KC and Pitt. He had one really good start against a good hitting team whoop dee do. If we’re being honest about the assessment here, we are taking his 2020 numbers with a grain of salt and looking at his prospect ranking heading into last season, which wasn’t all that much better than guys like Kelley and Thompson.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

I’m not losing sleep over Dane Dunning. He turns 26 this month, has already had TJS, was a borderline top 100 prospect, and was absolutely brutal in his last 3 starts at the end of the 2020 season when we needed him most.

Could he be a solid mid rotation starter? Sure. But so could Crochet, Kopech, Cease, Kelley, Thompson, Steiver, etc. Or the Sox could simply sign one that’s more trustworthy to me than Dunning in 2021 like Quintana for truly “just money” while not breaking the bank.

[Dam8610]

9 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And by the way, 55 FV for Dunning is extremely generous. Fangraphs has him at 45 FV.

Why are you going off of their last projection of him as a prospect when he's been in MLB and the data has changed since then? They have very conservative estimates for WAR for 55 FV prospects because a 55 FV prospect can be in rookie ball or AAA. Many 55 FV prospects in rookie ball never make MLB. Dunning got knocked to a 45 automatically because they ding pitchers half a grade for a TJ surgery, you'll note in the article you cited he was a 50 FV prospect. Meanwhile, the same website you're citing to try to prove me wrong has a projection system, Steamer, that is incredibly conservative and dings projections heavily for lack of MLB experience. Steamer projects 2021 Dunning for 2.4 WAR. Six years of approximately that production is about 15 WAR, aka the low end of what I've been saying. So FanGraphs actually thinks I'm right. Check the projection if you don't believe me:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dane-dunning/19409/stats?position=P

[Dam8610]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’m not losing sleep over Dane Dunning. He turns 26 this month, has already had TJS, was a borderline top 100 prospect, and was absolutely brutal in his last 3 starts at the end of the 2020 season when we needed him most.

Could he be a solid mid rotation starter? Sure. But so could Crochet, Kopech, Cease, Kelley, Thompson, Steiver, etc. Or the Sox could simply sign one that’s more trustworthy to me than Dunning in 2021 like Quintana for truly “just money” while not breaking the bank.

Okay, we got it, you don't like Dunning and think he's going to flame out. You could just say that instead of trying to twist and contort statistical analysis to try to make a point on which it does not agree with you, because the numbers as they look right now say you're wrong.

[Dam8610]

23 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And by the way, 55 FV for Dunning is extremely generous. Fangraphs has him at 45 FV.

Also by the way, Bieber is a 45 FV on FanGraphs as well as of his last prospect grade. Guess he'll never amount to anything, too, right?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Why are you going off of their last projection of him as a prospect when he's been in MLB and the data has changed since then? They have very conservative estimates for WAR for 55 FV prospects because a 55 FV prospect can be in rookie ball or AAA. Many 55 FV prospects in rookie ball never make MLB. Dunning got knocked to a 45 automatically because they ding pitchers half a grade for a TJ surgery, you'll note in the article you cited he was a 50 FV prospect. Meanwhile, the same website you're citing to try to prove me wrong has a projection system, Steamer, that is incredibly conservative and dings projections heavily for lack of MLB experience. Steamer projects 2021 Dunning for 2.4 WAR. Six years of approximately that production is about 15 WAR, aka the low end of what I've been saying. So FanGraphs actually thinks I'm right. Check the projection if you don't believe me:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dane-dunning/19409/stats?position=P

And Steamer projects Quintana for 1.7, Paxton for 2.4, Odorizzi for 1.8, Porcello for 1.9  in 2021. All available for truly just money and less than $10M AAV. Anyone of those guys plus Lynn is barely more than half of what they’d pay Bauer plus Dunning in 2021.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Also by the way, Bieber is a 45 FV on FanGraphs as well as of his last prospect grade. Guess he'll never amount to anything, too, right?

Oh ok if we are going to play that game Bieber was also a 4th round pick. But second round picks have negligible value. Got it

[Dam8610]

6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And Steamer projects Quintana for 1.7, Paxton for 2.4, Odorizzi for 1.8, Porcello for 1.9  in 2021. All available for truly just money and less than $10M AAV. Anyone of those guys plus Lynn is barely more than half of what they’d pay Bauer plus Dunning in 2021.

Nice goalpost shift, but as a counterargument, I don't give a shit about Jerry's pocketbook, and I DO give a shit about winning after 2021, therefore Bauer and Dunning is the more sound strategy from my perspective, ignoring the fact that Steamer projects Lynn for 3.2 WAR and Bauer for 3.8 WAR.

4 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Oh ok if we are going to play that game Bieber was also a 4th round pick. But second round picks have negligible value. Got it

That actually further proves my point about draft picks. Bieber likely will account for all of the 4th round WAR from his draft class, because 4th round picks hit at a worse rate than 2nd round picks. Finding a MLB talent in the 2nd or 4th round is like finding a needle in a haystack. A 50 FV prospect in AAA producing 15 WAR is much less rare.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

13 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Nice goalpost shift, but as a counterargument, I don't give a shit about Jerry's pocketbook, and I DO give a shit about winning after 2021, therefore Bauer and Dunning is the more sound strategy from my perspective, ignoring the fact that Steamer projects Lynn for 3.2 WAR and Bauer for 3.8 WAR.

That actually further proves my point about draft picks. Bieber likely will account for all of the 4th round WAR from his draft class, because 4th round picks hit at a worse rate than 2nd round picks. Finding a MLB talent in the 2nd or 4th round is like finding a needle in a haystack. A 50 FV prospect in AAA producing 15 WAR is much less rare.

So let’s say Quintana + Lynn costs $16M in 2021 and produces 5.0 WAR. While Bauer + Dunning costs $34M and produces 6.8 WAR. The second option cost also us a second round draft pick but the first option cost us Avery Weems. Not sure how the second option is obviously better. Putting aside that it’s unrealistic with this ownership (they’re never signing a big money contract for a pitcher like Bauer), I’m still not convinced it’s a better use of resources. 

So then you say, yea but you’d have Bauer and Dunning for many years beyond 2021. How do you know that’s a good thing? The first option leaves the organization with all kinds of flexibility in 2022 and beyond while the second option leaves the organization devastated by one injury (TJS perhaps) to Bauer or what if Dunning flames out? Even if Dunning and Bauer are rock solid for many years to come (unlikely), you can always sign more pitching each offseason for “just money”.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

When the trade was first made, my immediate reaction was extend Lynn for two years. But after thinking about it more, I’d wait. They have time. If he’s a stud again to start this year, offer him a two year extension. If not, let him walk and pursue one of Verlander, Grienke, or Scherzer on a short term deal selling them on the idea of winning a title at the tail end of their career.

[Ducksnort]

People who are not thrilled about the Lance Lynn signing...hypothetical question for you.

If the Sox only have Lynn for 2021 and he signs somewhere else next offseason, but they win the world series with him in 2021 and he is a major reason why they won it, and also Dunning turns into an ace for Texas and ends up winning a Cy Young in the next 6 years, what would you think of the trade then?

Edited December 9, 2020 by ScooterMcGee

[fathom]

1 minute ago, ScooterMcGee said:

People who are not thrilled about the Lance Lynn signing...hypothetical question for you.

If the Sox only have Lynn for 2021 and he signs somewhere else next offseason, but they win the world series with him in 2021 and he is a major reason why they won it, and also Dunning turns into an ace for Texas and ends up winning a Cy Young in the next 6 years, what would you think of the trade then?

Flags fly forever....and with all due respect to certain people, Dunning is in no way a Cy Young caliber pitcher.  He’s one more elbow surgery away from being the pitching coach at IMG Academy.