Old: Mega Hendriks Speculation Thread

[fathom]

1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:

Good stuff. Thanks for posting that. It makes sense that if you have a great offense and a great bullpen, you're going to give yourself a great chance. In games where it's 5-5 in the 5th inning, your great bullpen takes over and your great offense continues to score runs (I know it's not that simplistic, but the point remains).

I have no problem with adding to the bullpen, signing one more Quintana-like SP, and rolling into the season ready to go.  We can always evaluate starting pitching at the trade deadline, as well.  We'll have a better idea of where we stand with Cease and Kopech at that point.

Really think the Sox need more depth on offense to avoid a dynamic offense potentially turning into average. But that’s for another thread.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I think the worse your team is the more low leverage situations your RP's pitch in, the more likely you are to trade RP's, the more likely you are to use inexperienced arms in games, and the more likely you are to have middle relievers in games who are typically the lesser of arms. Haven't really looked at that though and it's an interesting point for sure.

That's definitely true, and this is all correlations.

In looking at 2020:

-Having a top anything got you into the playoffs

but for a full season, if you can only have one, it seems like you definitely want Top offense.

But I'm wondering if you could only pick 2 is the answer actually Top Offense/SP or Top Offense/Bullpen?

The Braves did offense/sp, bullpen was pretty trash. It seems like it makes it a lot harder with bad rp though.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, fathom said:

Really think the Sox need more depth on offense to avoid a dynamic offense potentially turning into average. But that’s for another thread.

Due to injury?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If the rotation plan is to extend Giolito & Lynn and hope that two out of Kopech, Cease, Crochet, & Stiever hit, why not splurge on an elite closer?  And realistically, we have a great young / cheap relief core for the next handful of years, so I’m not sure value shopping for two lesser relievers is better than just getting the best 9th inning guy possible.

This is actually a really good point.

If you sign a cheaper arm and he fails, you're forced to use someone like Bummer there. Relief pitching arbitration really only rewards closers and saves. By failing and forcing a young guy in the role, you're potentially making him very expensive which negates the savings you made by not signing the tops arms.  There is financial risk to not signing the top arm. 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[fathom]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Due to injury?

Yes, and if Yoan isn’t back to form. Too easy to foreshadow a lineup with Eaton, Leury, Madrigal and Engel in it.  That’s not exactly the ‘27 Yankees.

[bmags]

Just now, fathom said:

Really think the Sox need more depth on offense to avoid a dynamic offense potentially turning into average. But that’s for another thread.

I agree, but this is my hope if we get health eaton.

Likely diminishing production:

- Anderson

- Abreu

That doesn't mean they won't be great, but they were MVP and MVP caliber last year. That doesn't happen every year for non-Trout people.

But, the addition of Eaton and hopefully Vaughn specifically adds guys that are (in theory) lower strikeout, higher walk players. That replaces a low contact player in EE, a nothing player in Mazara.

And then you hope for good Moncada.

You hope it adds up into probably less power, but maybe better obp/sequencing to overcome it.

But yes. La Stella seems like a great play to me! 

Becaue man, nobody mentions it, but if Tim or Yoan go down we have Tim Beckham.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

I agree, but this is my hope if we get health eaton.

Likely diminishing production:

- Anderson

- Abreu

That doesn't mean they won't be great, but they were MVP and MVP caliber last year. That doesn't happen every year for non-Trout people.

But, the addition of Eaton and hopefully Vaughn specifically adds guys that are (in theory) lower strikeout, higher walk players. That replaces a low contact player in EE, a nothing player in Mazara.

And then you hope for good Moncada.

You hope it adds up into probably less power, but maybe better obp/sequencing to overcome it.

But yes. La Stella seems like a great play to me! 

Becaue man, nobody mentions it, but if Tim or Yoan go down we have Tim Beckham.

also likely to see a huge downgrade from McCann to Collins.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, fathom said:

Yes, and if Yoan isn’t back to form. Too easy to foreshadow a lineup with Eaton, Leury, Madrigal and Engel in it.  That’s not exactly the ‘27 Yankees.

Madrigal may not have power, but he’ll still be an above league average hitter with his contact ability IMO.  I think the real concern is the high likelihood of the corner OFs and Moncada missing extended periods of time.  We definitely need a LH bat that could fill into some of those spots if need be.

[maloney.adam]

I was reading through the Al’s tweets last night and found these responses but just didn’t post them. Did anyone happen to catch Jesse Rogers saying this?

Edited December 16, 2020 by maloney.adam

[fathom]

1 minute ago, maloney.adam said:

I was reading through Al’s tweets last night and found these but just didn’t post them. I don’t know if anyone was listening yesterday to Jesse Rogers and caught this?

Yes he said they’re going to move on. Said a MLB exec predicted Colome would get overpaid.  That’s only Sox nugget he had. I mentioned in other thread, but he also mentioned Yu is very much available.

[almagest]

10 minutes ago, bmags said:

I agree, but this is my hope if we get health eaton.

Likely diminishing production:

- Anderson

- Abreu

That doesn't mean they won't be great, but they were MVP and MVP caliber last year. That doesn't happen every year for non-Trout people.

But, the addition of Eaton and hopefully Vaughn specifically adds guys that are (in theory) lower strikeout, higher walk players. That replaces a low contact player in EE, a nothing player in Mazara.

And then you hope for good Moncada.

You hope it adds up into probably less power, but maybe better obp/sequencing to overcome it.

But yes. La Stella seems like a great play to me! 

Becaue man, nobody mentions it, but if Tim or Yoan go down we have Tim Beckham.

Robert has also shown to be vulnerable to extended slumps. I honestly don't know what we'll get from him on offense, and we saw how the team tanked once he stopped hitting.

[Balta1701]

10 minutes ago, fathom said:

also likely to see a huge downgrade from McCann to Collins.

One would also hope That Eloy and especially Robert show development progress to balance some of that out.

[fathom]

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Madrigal may not have power, but he’ll still be an above league average hitter with his contact ability IMO.  I think the real concern is the high likelihood of the corner OFs and Moncada missing extended periods of time.  We definitely need a LH bat that could fill into some of those spots if need be.

Twins 2019 had an incredible offense and then 2020 saw a handful of injuries and underperformance that derailed their season.  Their lack of depth resulted in mediocre players like Wade and Blankenship in the lineup in important games.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I am a fan of bringing in Schwarber still.  DH him, no pressure on Vaughn but also won't block Vaughn as he still can get time in LF (injured Eloy) and RF (injured Eaton).  Plus could spell Abreu 5-10 games a year. I can easily gfet him 120 starts that way.  Give him 7 million.  Provides some insurance if a serious offensive guy goes down.

[fathom]

Just now, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I am a fan of bringing in Schwarber still.  DH him, no pressure on Vaughn but also won't block Vaughn as he still can get time in LF (injured Eloy) and RF (injured Eaton).  Plus could spell Abreu 5-10 games a year. I can easily gfet him 120 starts that way.  Give him 7 million.  Provides some insurance if a serious offensive guy goes down.

Agreed, him or LaStella or bust. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, almagest said:

Robert has also shown to be vulnerable to extended slumps. I honestly don't know what we'll get from him on offense, and we saw how the team tanked once he stopped hitting.

That’s based on 2 months of baseball in a bizarre year. Based on that, Bergman was vulnerable to extended slumps (narrator: he wasn’t).

[maloney.adam]

10 minutes ago, fathom said:

Yes he said they’re going to move on. Said a MLB exec predicted Colome would get overpaid.  That’s only Sox nugget he had. I mentioned in other thread, but he also mentioned Yu is very much available.

So if anyone was hoping they would bring back Colome that appears to be pretty much out the window now. He was good but quite frankly he would always make things interesting in the end.

Edited December 16, 2020 by maloney.adam

[bmags]

I have said it multiple times, but I believe if the sox pass on Colome it's because they didn't believe in his health moving forward.

[almagest]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

That’s based on 2 months of baseball in a bizarre year. Based on that, Bergman was vulnerable to extended slumps (narrator: he wasn’t).

It's the only reference point we have. By your logic there's nothing we can predict with him, as his entire MLB career is also based on 2 months of baseball in a bizarre year.

[fathom]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

That’s based on 2 months of baseball in a bizarre year. Based on that, Bergman was vulnerable to extended slumps (narrator: he wasn’t).

Only thing is when Bergman slumps it still looks like he’s played baseball before. I get what you’re saying though. 

[TomPickle]

2 minutes ago, almagest said:

It's the only reference point we have. By your logic there's nothing we can predict with him, as his entire MLB career is also based on 2 months of baseball in a bizarre year.

The difference here is you're trying to project forward trends based on very limited data. If you said he might be vulnerable to velocity and lacks plate discipline, which could lead to slumps then I wouldn't disagree with you. But how you phrased it makes it seem like more of a mental thing where he can't get out of slump and we do not have nearly a long enough track record to say something like that in my opinion.

[South Side Hit Men]

I’m going to go against general consensus and state I hope the Sox pass on Hendricks if a high four year deal is required. Outside of say Mariano Rivera, it never turns out well, and a penny pinching team can’t afford mistakes.

Use the $14M to get two solid late inning arms, and or sign one and use the rest for another starter. It’s a much better use of self-imposed limited resources.

[iWiN4PreP]

Maybe we should just trade the farm (Stevier + anyone lower) for Darvish, huh 

[almagest]

6 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

The difference here is you're trying to project forward trends based on very limited data. If you said he might be vulnerable to velocity and lacks plate discipline, which could lead to slumps then I wouldn't disagree with you. But how you phrased it makes it seem like more of a mental thing where he can't get out of slump and we do not have nearly a long enough track record to say something like that in my opinion.

 

How did you infer that I think Robert is prone to slumping due to "a mental thing"? I said absolutely nothing of the sort, nor does anything I said come close to that. I also wouldn't agree it's because he's vulnerable to velocity or lacks plate discipline, because he showed both at times last year. I have no idea WHY he slumped, only that he was hot, then slumped, and our offense suffered a large amount as a result.

I'm also trying to project forward trends based on the only data we have. Otherwise you can't predict his performance at all, and I don't see how that's any different or makes anyone feel better about him carrying a large part of the offense next year. If he runs hot and cold next year or otherwise is not the player people are expecting him to be this offense isn't built to absorb that, as we saw last season, and you can't convince me Adam Eaton is the answer to that.

[almagest]

9 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Maybe we should just trade the farm (Stevier + anyone lower) for Darvish, huh 

I'm onboard with Steiver +, depending on the +. Don't want to mortgage the farm, and if the Sox absorb most/all of that deal it shouldn't cost too much.