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Old: Mega Hendriks Speculation Thread


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2 minutes ago, almagest said:

I'm onboard with Steiver +, depending on the +. Don't want to mortgage the farm, and if the Sox absorb most/all of that deal it shouldn't cost too much.

I am 100% ok with a low return for absorbing the contract.  What I don't want is a huge return so the Cubs carry a portion of the deal.

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

I don't know what to think about this, since a lot of bad teams purposely don't invest much in bullpen, but:

2020

Screen Shot 2020-12-16 at 2.18.49 PM.png

10 of top 11 bullpens made playoffs. The mariners were last one out, easy to say a better bullpen puts them in perhaps.

The Astros/Yanks/Cubs were at a huge disadvantage for much of year, and Astros would have never made it in in any other division.

2019

Screen Shot 2020-12-16 at 2.22.00 PM.png

2019 - 8 top 10 made playoffs. The Braves and Nationals didn't really struggle to get in, and the Mets improbably tried to build a great bullpen and sucked at it.

There is much more divergence in SP.

But hitting? Top offenses made it in.

I gotta tell ya. If I'm sox - I got a great offense. I have the makings of a great bullpen. Do I try to load up SP? I kinda think bullpen is attractive.

The issue is that RP are not valued in advanced metrics. Very few are better than replacement value by WAR because it is a counting stat so this tends to be undervalued. 

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3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

So we don’t want to give Hendrix 4 years because he might not be good 4 years from now when he is 35. But trading minor league and perhaps major league talent for Yu Darvish who is owed $59 million for his age 35,36, and 37 seasons seems like a good option. OK.

RP vs. SP

RPs tend to be extremely volatile and quite frankly, aren't all that important. 

SPs of the caliber of Darvish are extremely hard to find and are extremely important. 

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2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

So we don’t want to give Hendrix 4 years because he might not be good 4 years from now when he is 35. But trading minor league and perhaps major league talent for Yu Darvish who is owed $59 million for his age 35,36, and 37 seasons seems like a good option. OK.

I'd be ok with both.

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9 minutes ago, ptatc said:

The issue is that RP are not valued in advanced metrics. Very few are better than replacement value by WAR because it is a counting stat so this tends to be undervalued. 

When evaluating bullpens, I typically remove the 2-3 worst arms. The real problem is blow up outings can cause guys to go negative and they never recover. By removing the front end guys who aren't that good, I think you get a better look at the impact of the bullpen. Mainly because you want to know how good bullpens are at keeping games close or closing games out. You don't really care how good your bullpen is in games that are pretty much out of hand.

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6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

When evaluating bullpens, I typically remove the 2-3 worst arms. The real problem is blow up outings can cause guys to go negative and they never recover. By removing the front end guys who aren't that good, I think you get a better look at the impact of the bullpen. Mainly because you want to know how good bullpens are at keeping games close or closing games out. You don't really care how good your bullpen is in games that are pretty much out of hand.

I agree. I just think the bullpens are undervalued especially when looking only at such stats as WAR or ERA. It hard to evaluate statistically when the sample sizes are so small with the number of batters they face.

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32 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

RP vs. SP

RPs tend to be extremely volatile and quite frankly, aren't all that important. 

SPs of the caliber of Darvish are extremely hard to find and are extremely important. 

Did you just come out of a time machine from the 1970s? Bullpen is obviously of prime importance these days as the outcomes of playoff series clearly demonstrate.

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16 minutes ago, Vulture said:

Did you just come out of a time machine from the 1970s? Bullpen is obviously of prime importance these days as the outcomes of playoff series clearly demonstrate.

Exactly and that is the future.  Baseball probably will end up with "starters" going 2 to 3 innings max.

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1 hour ago, fathom said:

Yes, and if Yoan isn’t back to form. Too easy to foreshadow a lineup with Eaton, Leury, Madrigal and Engel in it.  That’s not exactly the ‘27 Yankees.

Pretty sure Madrigal is vastly superior to Joe Dugan at the plate. Don’t forget Koenig and Grabowski. Not exactly world beaters when it came to hitting.

although I agree. It would be best to pick up another bat

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6 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

This I agree with. I hate the way the club approached the 2018 and 2019 seasons. It didn't make any sense. 

Yea, it wasn't exactly a big tank. Cost us better draft position and money. If you are going to buy guys when you tank they better be damn good so you can flip them.

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