caulfield12 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, bmags said: and had Colgate at 9, illinois at 3 and ohio st at 8. I don't think advanced metrics were any more impressive than anything else this year, it was just a very weird year and now there's a tournament where weird things happen and people will work backwards to find what shows it was going to happen that way. The Patriot League didn’t even have any non-conference this year? If I was Illinois - I’m running a drag Kofi PnR to the middle with Donsumu in the corner. They won’t help off him and you’ll get lob after lob. When they adjust, you have a kick-back for a close out situation with Ayo. I have zero idea what they were running on ‘O’. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralChamps21 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 Somebody needs to compare tournament results over the past 6-8 years and compare them to all the different metrics out there and see if there is any strong correlation with any of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 (edited) It’s readily apparent the Big Ten was overrated this year and it all stems from the preseason rankings where a number of Big Ten teams were placed inside the top 25 and top 10. Those high preseason ranks stayed with the conference all season so even when a team like Iowa loses to a top 10 team like Illinois they don’t fall much in the rankings because they lost to a “top” team. But let’s take a quick look at Illinois’ non-conference schedule. Beat two doormats to start the season, barely survived Ohio U, beat a mediocre Duke team, lost decidedly to a very good Baylor team, and lost a close game to a good but not great Missouri team. That’s not overly impressive for a team that finished the season ranked #2 in the country despite 6 losses. It’s also apparent the PAC-12 was vastly underrated. I mean 21-8 Iowa gets a #2 seed while regular season PAC-12 champ 20-6 Oregon gets a #7 seed? Makes no sense. Today’s game is a toss up and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Oregon won. Ditto for seeding on the rest of the Big Ten and PAC-12. Edited March 22, 2021 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 Clayton Custer is on the score right now. Moser was on with Mully and Haugh earlier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said: Somebody needs to compare tournament results over the past 6-8 years and compare them to all the different metrics out there and see if there is any strong correlation with any of them. I think kenpom is great, I'm just saying this year specifically pointing to a metric and saying "see loyola is good because they were top ten in this metric" is silly. Loyola is good, but the advanced metrics had the same limited data the rest of us had that makes this an especially difficult year, and it's questionable if a one-and-done tourney even satisfies it - but loyola winning the MVC often with good margins of victory and then beating a good team and then beating a great team is more than enough evidence that loyola was a very good team. Doesn't really need a NET rating to prove it. I do think big ten benefitted from there being no tourney last year as many of the teams like Illinois got hot in conference, then had a pretty mediocre non-con this year, then got hot in conference. But I still think Illinois is a top ten team in a normal year, but as others mentioned, teams like the PAC-12 probably ended up on harder draws due to there being so much less cross-conference play this year. And also there were no fans, which may have helped some bad road teams or younger teams not show weaknesses that the fans + pressure of the tournament exposed or didn't let get developed. THat's not an ILL story but could be an Oklahoma State story. Anyway, kenpom is great, NET rating is better than an AP top 25, but this is just a really weird year and i think certain conferences were just inevitably going to be undervalued because of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: It’s readily apparent the Big Ten was overrated this year and it all stems from the preseason rankings where a number of Big Ten teams were placed inside the top 25 and top 10. Those high preseason ranks stayed with the conference all season so even when a team like Iowa loses to a top 10 team like Illinois they don’t fall much in the rankings because they lost to a “top” team. But let’s take a quick look at Illinois’ non-conference schedule. Beat two doormats to start the season, barely survived Ohio U, beat a mediocre Duke team, lost decidedly to a very good Baylor team, and lost a close game to a good but not great Missouri team. That’s not overly impressive for a team that finished the season ranked #2 in the country despite 6 losses. It’s also apparent the PAC-12 was vastly underrated. I mean 21-8 Iowa gets a #2 seed while regular season PAC-12 champ 20-6 Oregon gets a #7 seed? Makes no sense. Today’s game is a toss up and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Oregon won. Ditto for seeding on the rest of the Big Ten and PAC-12. USC/KU, Ohio U/Creighton, Iowa/Oregon, Abilene/UCLA, even LSU/Michigan has many going with the Tigers. In iowa’s defense, they have the second most Q1 wins and first or second in AP Top 25 wins. Lost to Gonzaga at Sioux Falls, at home to OSU, at Illinois and then again in tourney (CJ Frederick out first time), at Michigan...so that leaves two Indiana losses and choking away a seven point lead at Minny in the final 40 seconds when they were ranked early in the season. Beat Wisconsin 2-3 times, Ohio State in Columbus by a big margin, North Carolina ranked when they beat them, Purdue, at Rutgers when ranked, NW when ranked, etc. Oregon lost at home to Missouri by 8. They also beat Oregon two seasons ago, so that will help Garza, Weiskamp, Bohannon and McCaffrey add some confidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnin' two Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 34 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Or wait one more year for ND, although Loyola’s likely to have a somewhat down year losing their two best players. Is Brey in trouble? I haven't heard anything, and while they were bad this year, they were pretty decent last year. He could be though. Also, not sure ND is a better job than IU or MU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: USC/KU, Ohio U/Creighton, Iowa/Oregon, Abilene/UCLA, even LSU/Michigan has many going with the Tigers. In iowa’s defense, they have the second most Q1 wins and first or second in AP Top 25 wins. Lost to Gonzaga at Sioux Falls, at home to OSU, at Illinois and then again in tourney (CJ Frederick out first time), at Michigan...so that leaves two Indiana losses and choking away a seven point lead at Minny in the final 40 seconds when they were ranked early in the season. Beat Wisconsin 2-3 times, Ohio State in Columbus by a big margin, North Carolina ranked when they beat them, Purdue, at Rutgers when ranked, NW when ranked, etc. Oregon lost at home to Missouri by 8. They also beat Oregon two seasons ago, so that will help Garza, Weiskamp, Bohannon and McCaffrey add some confidence. Don’t get me wrong, Iowa is a good team. But they also benefitted from the inflated Big Ten preseason rankings while PAC-12 teams didn’t. So Oregon’s strong conference record was unjustifiably diminished as a result. Were Oregon’s non-conference results any worse than Illinois? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thxfrthmmrs Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: People should take 10 minutes to watch that video I posted to understand what Loyola is doing defensively and what makes them so effective. Hell, if Underwood had taken 10 minutes to watch that video, Illinois would have been much better prepared yesterday than they were ? I watched it and it definitely helped break down their defensive philosophy. And I agreed Underwood did not prepare the team enough to face this D, that’s why they got embarrassed. From the video, you could clearly learn their tendencies and limitations, and what the teams that had success against them were doing. Is Loyola underrated, talented, and a tough team to beat? Yes. But with the talent Illini had, they could have handled this team with a better game plan, or at least making necessary half time adjustments. But I saw zero half time adjustment yesterday. When they got stifled on offense, the players got frustrated, then Ayo, Curbelo, and Frazier started playing hero ball forcing up tough shots and turning the ball over. It was pretty evident where Illinois fell short yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOFHurt35 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: It’s readily apparent the Big Ten was overrated this year... Because of 1 random game results? This argument is made every year when big conference schools get upset. It's dumb. If Illinois plays Loyola 10 times, there's a good chance they beat them on 7-8 of those. Same for Ohio St vs Oral Roberts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 Iowa and Oregon playing at a blistering pace. Oregon is hitting some crazy shots, Hawkeye bench and Garza keeping them in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 1 hour ago, turnin' two said: Is Brey in trouble? I haven't heard anything, and while they were bad this year, they were pretty decent last year. He could be though. Also, not sure ND is a better job than IU or MU. It’s widely assumed he’s done after next year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted March 22, 2021 Author Share Posted March 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Iowa and Oregon playing at a blistering pace. Oregon is hitting some crazy shots, Hawkeye bench and Garza keeping them in it. It is a really entertaining game. I don't know that Iowa can keep up with how well Oregon is shooting the ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 Ya this game rocks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted March 22, 2021 Author Share Posted March 22, 2021 Was entertaining - Oregon just went on a massive run at the end of the half. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 (edited) 3/11 from 3 won't cut it. Need Bohannon, Frederick or Weiskamp to get hot in second half. Murray hasn't gotten going, but Pat MCaffrey with best game of the season. Look like two evenly matched teams, Oregon clearly more athletic across the board. Garza hasn't even missed a FT but still behind... and he funally misses. Jinxed. Doesn't seem possible to be facing a 10~11 point lead here. Iowa hasn't played badly but Murray and Perkins showing their youth. Edited March 22, 2021 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 22 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said: Because of 1 random game results? This argument is made every year when big conference schools get upset. It's dumb. If Illinois plays Loyola 10 times, there's a good chance they beat them on 7-8 of those. Same for Ohio St vs Oral Roberts. What did the Big Ten do to earn all those very high preseason rankings? Are you watching the games this tournament? This isn’t some fluky/random thing. Big Ten teams are getting rolled defensively. PAC-12 has done nothing but impress, especially offensively. Why was their conference’s highest seed a #5? There’s no logical explanation for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 Well, it's not over yet but don't even feel that upset like blowing 17 point lead to NW State in 2006 or another huge lead against UNLV in 87. Oregon has been shooting lights out... but Iowa defense needs to be a lot tougher, was always going to be their Achilles' heel from the very beginning of the season. Heck, any and every McCaffrey team has lacked defensive focus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 27 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said: Because of 1 random game results? This argument is made every year when big conference schools get upset. It's dumb. If Illinois plays Loyola 10 times, there's a good chance they beat them on 7-8 of those. Same for Ohio St vs Oral Roberts. Lol, no on the Loyola-Illinois thing. And we do this every freakin year with the valley too. Some of you guys are delusional. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: What did the Big Ten do to earn all those very high preseason rankings? Are you watching the games this tournament? This isn’t some fluky/random thing. Big Ten teams are getting rolled defensively. PAC-12 has done nothing but impress, especially offensively. Why was their conference’s highest seed a #5? There’s no logical explanation for that. Nobody paid much attention with UCLA. Washington and Arizona/Arizona State down...with most of the focus on Evan Mobley. USC the only consistent Top 25 team, so rarely in the highlights, etc. Perception issues. Colorado rarely a basketball power, OSU back to AC Green and Gary Payton days Edited March 22, 2021 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 26 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Iowa and Oregon playing at a blistering pace. Oregon is hitting some crazy shots, Hawkeye bench and Garza keeping them in it. The entire PAC-12 plays with this kind of speed. It’s really impressive. I didn’t see much of the PAC-12 during the regular season but I’ve watched UCLA, OSU, Colorado and now Oregon in the tourney and the pace is simply too much for most teams to handle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Rowand44 said: Lol, no on the Loyola-Illinois thing. And we do this every freakin year with the valley too. Some of you guys are delusional. Yep. And every year they’re surprised when a Valley team goes on a run by knocking off a couple power conference teams and then dismisses it as a “fluke.” Whatever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 (edited) 13 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: The entire PAC-12 plays with this kind of speed. It’s really impressive. I didn’t see much of the PAC-12 during the regular season but I’ve watched UCLA, OSU, Colorado and now Oregon in the tourney and the pace is simply too much for most teams to handle. If they had Nunge, it would make a huge difference defensively. But this game is mostly about 7/14 vs 3/11 from three point range. Can't give up almost 60% shooting. Edited March 22, 2021 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 If Oregon plays this well, they will destroy KU/USC and set up a great game with Gonzaga. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted March 22, 2021 Author Share Posted March 22, 2021 1 minute ago, caulfield12 said: If Oregon plays this well, they will destroy KU/USC and set up a great game with Gonzaga. Oregon is good. I hope Iowa has a run in them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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