Salary Projections - 2027

[TheCommish]

So I was curious to see what JR would be willing to spend for Championship teams. Let's say we go again to the playoffs this year and go deeper, it looks like we will be competing now for the not to short future for world series titles. He's shown in the past to be top 5 payroll in that instance.

2021 - Currently 118.88 (w/ Eaton/Lynn, buyouts for Herrera,Cishek,Gonzalez)

2022 - Projected 132.05 (picking up Eaton 8.5 - arb - Giolito proj 7.5, Lopez 3.6, Marshall 4.2, Fry/Engle 2.5 - Madrigal, Vaughn, Mendick, Collins, Cease, Kopech, Steiver, Crochet, Kelley, Cordero, Heuer, Foster on rookie salary - Losing Lynn, Leury

2023 - Projected 131.83 (picking up TA 12.5, Keuchel 20 - arb - Giolito proj 12, Cease/Kopech 2.4, Lopez 6.1, Fry 4.2, Cordero/Heuer/Mendick 1.4 - Madrigal, Vaughn, Collins, Steiver, Crochet, Kelley, Foster on rookie salary) - Losing Abreu, Marshall

2024 - Projected 99.13 (picking up TA 14 - arb - Cease/Kopech - 3.6, Mendick/Cordero/Heuer - 2.5, Madrigal/Vaughn/Crochet/Kelley - 2.4, Collins/Steiver/Foster - 1.4 - Kelley on rookie Salary) - Losing Grandal, Giolito, Keuchel, Lopez, Fry

2025 - Projected 109.25 (picking up Moncada 25, Jimenez 16.5, Bummer 7.25 - arb - Cease/Kopech - 6.1, Mendick/Cordero/Heuer - 4.2, Madrigal/Vaughn/Crochet - 3.6, Collins/Steiver/Foster - 2.5, Kelley - 2.4) - Losing TA

2026 - Projected 80.5 (picking up Jimenez 18.5, Robert 20, Bummer 7.5 - arb - Madrigal/Vaughn/Crochet - 6.1, Collins/Steiver/Foster - 4.2, Kelley - 3.6) - Losing Cease, Kopech, Mendick

 

Projected payroll w/ signings:

141.8 2021 - Closer 13M, SP 10M

160.05 2022 - SP 15M (replacing Lynn) - closer from 2021 at 13M - keep Eaton or replace his 8.5 with RF FA

174.83 2023 - Abreu extension - 2 yrs 30M (15M/Yr) - pick up Keuchel 20M or sign new SP 18M - 3 years

176.58 2024 - Giolito Extension 4/76M (15/18/20/23, extension happens this year - C at 18.25 (replace Grandal) - Closer 13M (3/39)

194.5 2025 - Anderson Extension 3/60 (18/20/22) - C at 18.25

176.75 2026 - Moncada Extension 2/53 (25/28) - C at 18.25

142.35 2027 - Jimenez Extension 1/25 (only going through '27) - C at 18.25 (with TA, Moncada, Giolito extensions)

 

Those are cap numbers that should work for the White Sox. I'm not advocating for signing the players I listed above, but at least the Salary comparisons should be met. Abreu comes off the books in 2024 to be replaced by Vaughn. I still project to sign 2 SP to go along with Giolito and our young core of Crochet/Cease/Kopech/Kelley. Kept the closer on the books for 3 years. 

 

2025 would be the year where the salary starts to get to a point where it's out of the White Sox range. It's because i project 18.25 for C, 20 TA, 25 Moncada, 20 Giolito... and picking up Eloy 18.5 and Robert 20. That's a lot of high priced salaries. I've also got a projected 18M for a SP FA signing projected in that number. Remove only that number with the hopes that Kopech/Crochet are filling out the top of the rotation and it's down to a reasonable 176.5. 

I honestly see no reason that we couldn't honestly afford to grab Bauer at 30M/year - 171 in 2021, 190 in 2022, 204 in 2023, 206 in 2024... it makes sense, because adding a Bauer to this team makes us World Series favorites through 2027!!!!

And if we could draft a C or trade for one in the next year or so, we could save 18.25M from 2024 on... bringing that salary with Bauer even closer to where JR would want it! Also remember inflation and that 175M in 2024 is going to look like a small team salary, the norm should be around 200M at that point. So with Bauer, my projections still are within that range! 

Okay, that's enough looking at numbers! 

[Jack Parkman]

Seeing this, I get exactly what they're doing. 2021 is the only year that the Sox have a chance to win a title. They're not going to be able to fill out their holes around the core guys after this year. In fact, It would not surprise me if a core guy or two get traded next winter. If they have $160M committed for 2022 I see that being outside of Jerry's comfort level. 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Vulture]

That’s not 160 million committed in ‘22. That figure includes 36 million op is speculating will be used to cover holes. “W/ signings” The amount committed according to op including arb projections is 132. And that includes picking up eatons option. Take that off it’s about 124.  Also includes Lopez who can be no tendered...brings baseline to about 120. 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Vulture

[Jack Parkman]

25 minutes ago, Vulture said:

That’s not 160 million committed in ‘22. That figure includes 36 million op is speculating will be used to cover holes. “W/ signings” The amount committed according to op including arb projections is 132. And that includes picking up eatons option. Take that off it’s about 124. 

I don't see Jerry being comfortable past 145. It's going to be hard to fill holes. 

[Vulture]

I was thinking 160 ramping up to 170-175 in a few years might be the range but who knows. doesn’t seem like they’ve been allocating funds willynilly to me though. Guess we’ll just have to see

[ChiSox1917]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Seeing this, I get exactly what they're doing. 2021 is the only year that the Sox have a chance to win a title. They're not going to be able to fill out their holes around the core guys after this year. In fact, It would not surprise me if a core guy or two get traded next winter. If they have $160M committed for 2022 I see that being outside of Jerry's comfort level. 

50/50 shot jerrys dead by 2025

[South Side Hit Men]

I'm hoping for a Mark Cuban type to own the team by 2027. I don't even want to contemplate the possibility of Jerry as managing partner into his 90s, approaching 50 years of control.

It's Christmas for Christ's sake, can't we end the year on a positive note. 

PS - I wouldn't assume or project current CBA parameters past this season (low $0.6M league minimum, six years of player control, etc.). The players need to not only protect themselves but also the integrity of the game at this point, as it's clear owners have no interest.