2021 Plan for Kopech and Crochet

[Vulture]

7 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

The other thing with Crochet is we have no idea how he would hold up with a regular bullpen workload. We saw him pitch 6 innings after pitching 3 in college and spending time at an alternate site. 
 

He looked about as good as you can look for 6 innings. 

If you used him in a bulk role he could prepare the same as a starter except his pitch count would start in the fourth instead of the first. Kopech/Crochet opener bulk/ tandem seems like the obvious solution to me.

[Vulture]

2 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

I hope both are brought along slowly in the minors, until they are ready to be called up and pitch without restrictions for the rest of the season.

I am confident Katz will develop a solid 2021 game plan, with the objective to have both ready to start the 2022 season without restrictions.

 

There isn’t a pitcher in mlb pitching without restrictions anymore

[Sambuca]

There is not one good reason to start Kopech in the majors next season.  I’m sure they have a plan for him, but he’s also going to dictate some of that plan based on his AAA performance.  Even if they plan to bring him up in June, if he doesn’t find his command until July, he’s not coming up until July.  
 

I am extremely confident in Kopech next season though.  Hopefully their plan keeps his arm fresh for the playoffs.  

[Jerksticks]

I’m of the opinion that Crochet should never be a starter and that having a nuclear weapon in the bullpen that makes Andrew Miller look like Jim Parque is an absolutely wonderful advantage, especially come crunch time.  What a home run of a pick.  

Edited December 19, 2020 by Jerksticks

[ron883]

1 hour ago, Jerksticks said:

I’m of the opinion that Crochet should never be a starter and that having a nuclear weapon in the bullpen that makes Andrew Miller look like Jim Parque is an absolutely wonderful advantage, especially come crunch time.  What a home run of a pick.  

Ya gotta see if the guy can handle being a starter first. There is more value there. He can always become a reliever if he doesn't cut it as a starter. 

Edited December 19, 2020 by Yearnin' for Yermin

[Jerksticks]

7 hours ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Ya gotta see if the guy can handle being a starter first. There is more value there. He can always become a reliever if he doesn't cut it as a starter. 

Traditionally yes, that’s the safe and obvious course of action.  As fans of baseball, that’s for sure what’s been beaten into our heads for so long now it’s not even really an opinion- it’s like etiquette now to say that.   I get it.   
 

But damn, 102 from the left side, able to cover 1-3 innings every other day is insane.  Especially with the uncertainty  stemming from the overall low inning loads of 2020...we need guys to cover more innings than you may think.  I’d love for him to take 100 IP. 
 

I get what you’re saying though, baseball gonna baseball. 

[Dominikk85]

I already wrote in another thread:

I think it depends on whether there is a full (or at least 60+%) minor league season. If there is a full milb season both will be in the minors.

However if there is no milb season (or just a 30 game fall league) then crochet might be put in the pen and that might be it with starting as he probably would need to milb seasons to be ready as a starter and are you sending him back to the minors after two years with some mlb exposure?

 

I just hope there is a milb season.

[Capital G]

19 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Like others have said, if you're going to stretch out Crochet, you kinda have to do it in the minors. He hasn't thrown enough innings as a starter. The other thing they have to do is monitor how his stuff is as a starter, if he drops down to topping out at 94 mph and gets lit up like a christmas tree, then......dude is a reliever, and that's that. 

what did we do w Mark and Sale? I cannot remember but didnt we use the in the BP and then move them to starters and did not have them stretch in the minors? I could be wrong. Any reason why we could not do that w/ Crochet?

[ptatc]

4 minutes ago, Capital G said:

what did we do w Mark and Sale? I cannot remember but didnt we use the in the BP and then move them to starters and did not have them stretch in the minors? I could be wrong. Any reason why we could not do that w/ Crochet?

Both of those were full time starters in college. Their arms could do it. Crochet has never had that workload. That makes it much more difficult from a purely physical perspective. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

19 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

ASSUMING WE HAVE A NORMAL-ISH SEASON

Kopech starts at Charlotte and works up slowly to 5 to 6 innings, and comes up around June unless other problems dictate an earlier arrival.

Crochet starts at Birmingham as a stater, working mostly 75 to 80 pitches an outing getting around a dozen starts between AA and AAA before evenutally coming up as a reliever, to finish the season.  He ends up somewhere between 100-120 innings this year.

I think that's quite a stretch on Crochets innings. I think we'd be lucky to get 75 innings between the minors and the Sox. Both will be monitored very closely and not over pitched, especially if they do well, so that they can be available for the last month or 2 of the season and see if they are playoff worthy in roles that coincide with their minor league work and innings pitched to that point.

[Capital G]

50 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Both of those were full time starters in college. Their arms could do it. Crochet has never had that workload. That makes it much more difficult from a purely physical perspective. 

Makes sense. I was not aware that he wasn't a starter in college. 

[Blackout Friday]

Bullpen for crochet now and forever. Cap kopech at 110 innings in AAA and shut him down for the year. 

[Balta1701]

12 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

I’m of the opinion that Crochet should never be a starter and that having a nuclear weapon in the bullpen that makes Andrew Miller look like Jim Parque is an absolutely wonderful advantage, especially come crunch time.  What a home run of a pick.  

At least someone is saying this, if you think he’s a reliever long term that’s fair, it’s different from “I want him as a reliever this year but will convert him down the road at a time TBD” which I don’t think is feasible. Now here’s the argument against this:

1. I don’t think anyone would have been ok with the draft pick if we were drafting a guy who will only ever be a reliever at #12.

2. While relievers are great high leverage weapons, they don’t provide the same value to a team as a starter.

3. Relievers are cheaper than starters. Hendricks has been as good as anyone in baseball the last 2 years and he’s probably be signed right now if you put $50 million on the table. Gerrit Cole was $326. A cheap team can afford a top fight reliever but will be buying bottom of the barrel starters.

4. It is interesting that the Brewers have had no one step up and pay the price for Hader with multiple years of control. He was as good as anyone 2 years ago, and everyone knows he’s available. It seems getting top value for those relief arms in trades has become more difficult. Teams know they can find relievers elsewhere.

5. Relievers, as we know, are volatile. A guy can be amazing, an all star, and then just fall flat, even with a really good arm. Starters pitch enough that things tend to even out. I don’t think Lance Lynn is a top 10 pitcher in baseball, but I can’t deny that in 2019 he absolutely was.

6. This team in particular needs starting pitching. Any one of Cease, Lopez, and Kopech might eventually get stuck in the pen if they can’t make it as a starter, and they have several good relievers already.

7. As he would be throwing max effort each pitch, there’s no guarantee that being a reliever will keep him healthier than being a starter.

[ptatc]

31 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

At least someone is saying this, if you think he’s a reliever long term that’s fair, it’s different from “I want him as a reliever this year but will convert him down the road at a time TBD” which I don’t think is feasible. Now here’s the argument against this:

1. I don’t think anyone would have been ok with the draft pick if we were drafting a guy who will only ever be a reliever at #12.

2. While relievers are great high leverage weapons, they don’t provide the same value to a team as a starter.

3. Relievers are cheaper than starters. Hendricks has been as good as anyone in baseball the last 2 years and he’s probably be signed right now if you put $50 million on the table. Gerrit Cole was $326. A cheap team can afford a top fight reliever but will be buying bottom of the barrel starters.

4. It is interesting that the Brewers have had no one step up and pay the price for Hader with multiple years of control. He was as good as anyone 2 years ago, and everyone knows he’s available. It seems getting top value for those relief arms in trades has become more difficult. Teams know they can find relievers elsewhere.

5. Relievers, as we know, are volatile. A guy can be amazing, an all star, and then just fall flat, even with a really good arm. Starters pitch enough that things tend to even out. I don’t think Lance Lynn is a top 10 pitcher in baseball, but I can’t deny that in 2019 he absolutely was.

6. This team in particular needs starting pitching. Any one of Cease, Lopez, and Kopech might eventually get stuck in the pen if they can’t make it as a starter, and they have several good relievers already.

7. As he would be throwing max effort each pitch, there’s no guarantee that being a reliever will keep him healthier than being a starter.

Its definitely a valid perspective.  He has never had the workload so there is no guarantee he can retain his stuff or health as a starter.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

13 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Its definitely a valid perspective.  He has never had the workload so there is no guarantee he can retain his stuff or health as a starter.

I was hoping I'd see u here. A lot of people are speculating that Crochet can go 100-125 IP this year and I think that's way too optimistic based on his college career. I'm thinking more in the 65-75 IP range and if he can do that without any DL stints then thank your lucky stars. What is your opinion ?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, Capital G said:

Makes sense. I was not aware that he wasn't a starter in college. 

He was a starter or tried to be his last 2 years at Tenn. but he made only 13 starts and had 36 appearances . 2019 65 IP and 2020 1 start, a few innings before he got injured then drafted .  Threw innings in summer camp before Sox brought him up and pitched 6 innings regular season and got injured again in the playoffs. He's never shown he can sustain a high level of performance. That's the problem with trying to get him to be a starting pitcher , his health throwing that hard or if he might have to dial it back as a starter and you still might get injury either way. The kid is tough . Pitched with a broken jaw but I'm pretty sure the Sox are going to try to keep his arm healthy to contribute in 2020 late in the season and into the playoffs and severely limit his innings he throws in the minors. Whether that means a spot start every now and then for 3 innings combined with some BP work we don't know.

[Jerksticks]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

At least someone is saying this, if you think he’s a reliever long term that’s fair, it’s different from “I want him as a reliever this year but will convert him down the road at a time TBD” which I don’t think is feasible. Now here’s the argument against this:

1. I don’t think anyone would have been ok with the draft pick if we were drafting a guy who will only ever be a reliever at #12.

2. While relievers are great high leverage weapons, they don’t provide the same value to a team as a starter.

3. Relievers are cheaper than starters. Hendricks has been as good as anyone in baseball the last 2 years and he’s probably be signed right now if you put $50 million on the table. Gerrit Cole was $326. A cheap team can afford a top fight reliever but will be buying bottom of the barrel starters.

4. It is interesting that the Brewers have had no one step up and pay the price for Hader with multiple years of control. He was as good as anyone 2 years ago, and everyone knows he’s available. It seems getting top value for those relief arms in trades has become more difficult. Teams know they can find relievers elsewhere.

5. Relievers, as we know, are volatile. A guy can be amazing, an all star, and then just fall flat, even with a really good arm. Starters pitch enough that things tend to even out. I don’t think Lance Lynn is a top 10 pitcher in baseball, but I can’t deny that in 2019 he absolutely was.

6. This team in particular needs starting pitching. Any one of Cease, Lopez, and Kopech might eventually get stuck in the pen if they can’t make it as a starter, and they have several good relievers already.

7. As he would be throwing max effort each pitch, there’s no guarantee that being a reliever will keep him healthier than being a starter.

All fair points.  I just wonder if we NEED to force Crochet to try being a starter when we have Lopez, Cease & Kopech already arguably years further along in workload, with the Kelley, Thompson, Dalquist, Stiever etc tier of guys also arguably more ramped up as well.  
 

Not trying to get too Caulfieldish here with the name dropping but there are tons of guys that can potentially fill the SP role without having to remove the most electric lefty arm in baseball from our bullpen.  
 

If Kopech is looking really good there’s no reason to develop Crochet as a starter IMO.  

[SpringfieldFan]

Granted it's way early to project but maybe the question on Crochet long term is whether you want the next Goose Gossage or the next Randy Johnson. Intriguing choice to think about.

[Balta1701]

29 minutes ago, SpringfieldFan said:

Granted it's way early to project but maybe the question on Crochet long term is whether you want the next Goose Gossage or the next Randy Johnson. Intriguing choice to think about.

Randy Johnson without hesitation.

[Balta1701]

31 minutes ago, SpringfieldFan said:

Granted it's way early to project but maybe the question on Crochet long term is whether you want the next Goose Gossage or the next Randy Johnson. Intriguing choice to think about.

Wait, you mentioned “Goose” Gossage and then came up with the pitcher who hit a bird with a fastball...you’re really a bird aren’t you? 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

18 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Randy Johnson without hesitation.

Id say so too but 2021 isn't the year we can find out what he can be. Do you really think in 2022 he'll be ready to pitch 150+ innings ? My guess is he's a TJ or rotator cuff injury waiting to happen. Baby him along there's a slight chance to build up his arm to handle a bigger load. Or maybe he just throws so damn hard surgery is inevitable.

[Balta1701]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Id say so too but 2021 isn't the year we can find out what he can be. Do you really think in 2022 he'll be ready to pitch 150+ innings ? My guess is he's a TJ or rotator cuff injury waiting to happen. Baby him along there's a slight chance to build up his arm to handle a bigger load. Or maybe he just throws so damn hard surgery is inevitable.

I think if he’s going to be a TJS then that’s going to happen regardless of where we put him, all the 103 mph pitches out of the bullpen will get him there if that’s where he’s going. 

I’m not sure whether we can get him to 150 innings in 2022. But I can say that if he pitches 60 innings in the 2021 bullpen, he won’t get there. Furthermore, we will be having this same conversation next offseason - should we try to make him a starter in 2022 for part of the year and stretch him out to pitch 150 innings in 2023 - because it would be such a boost if we could get him there. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think if he’s going to be a TJS then that’s going to happen regardless of where we put him, all the 103 mph pitches out of the bullpen will get him there if that’s where he’s going. 

I’m not sure whether we can get him to 150 innings in 2022. But I can say that if he pitches 60 innings in the 2021 bullpen, he won’t get there. Furthermore, we will be having this same conversation next offseason - should we try to make him a starter in 2022 for part of the year and stretch him out to pitch 150 innings in 2023 - because it would be such a boost if we could get him there. 

If he is going to have Tommy John surgery I'd rather try to avoid or delay it by babying him along. Maybe it can't be avoiding but I'd sure like to try and if that means less innings this year so be it. With you wanting him amped up to 100 innings this year I think you are pushing him closer to that surgery. No way to know that for sure but since the Sox probably care about his health as much as his arm I'd bet against him throwing 100 innings this year.

[Balta1701]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

If he is going to have Tommy John surgery I'd rather try to avoid or delay it by babying him along. Maybe it can't be avoiding but I'd sure like to try and if that means less innings this year so be it. With you wanting him amped up to 100 innings this year I think you are pushing him closer to that surgery. No way to know that for sure but since the Sox probably care about his health as much as his arm I'd bet against him throwing 100 innings this year.

Babying him along is not having him throw 60 innings as a high leverage guy in the 2021 bullpen of a team with aspirations to win their division. If that's your number 1 concern, you have him spend the majority of the year at BHam/Charlotte building up his arm there.

I think most people would say, if he's going to be a reliever, he's going to be on the big league roster because they could use that arm in the pen. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

51 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Babying him along is not having him throw 60 innings as a high leverage guy in the 2021 bullpen of a team with aspirations to win their division. If that's your number 1 concern, you have him spend the majority of the year at BHam/Charlotte building up his arm there.

I think most people would say, if he's going to be a reliever, he's going to be on the big league roster because they could use that arm in the pen. 

Do you think 60 innings up and down (MiLB /MLB) is any more or less stressful to his arm ? Is 100 innings up and down more or less stressful ?