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2021 Plan for Kopech and Crochet


SoxBlanco

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6 minutes ago, ptatc said:

This is all true. They just need to decide the path. Either way this year he is essentially going to be a reliever with his innings limit whether it be in themajors or minors. 

Here's the trick with that. There are 3 options:

1. Put him as a starter in the minor leagues for some time, stretch him out, with the goal of him being a long-term starter. 

2. Trade him for the most impactful piece you can find right now, let the other team do that development for when they can compete in a couple years  (fathom is right, Luis Castillo is an excellent potential fit here).

3. Put him in the bullpen in 2021 and figure things out afterwards.

If I had to say which gets the greatest overall value for the White Sox franchise, it's the first. If I had to pick which gets the greatest value for the 2021 and 2022 White Sox, and maximizes their chances of a World Series right now, it's the 2nd. If I had to pick the worst option for the White Sox, that minimizes his value both now and in the long term and at the same time maximizes the risk of him being useless to them because he got hurt, it's the 3rd.

Hence, the White Sox are choosing the 3rd.

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23 minutes ago, bmags said:

I do think this is a little different. Rodon did get minors time. And I am at least open to idea that the uncertainty around the minors is making them plan differently, like this guy may be too valuable os they are choosing a path they have more control over.

The biggest difference is that Rodon started for years in college and was coming off a full season. Crochet has none of those innings.

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7 minutes ago, ptatc said:

This is all true. They just need to decide the path. Either way this year he is essentially going to be a reliever with his innings limit whether it be in themajors or minors. 

This seems to be the point that people are missing. I don't understand what specific plan is preferred. Do you guys want him to start in the minors and then just get shut down in the middle of the season?

@southsider2k5, @Harold's Leg Lift, @Jack Parkman, @Balta1701

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Here's the trick with that. There are 3 options:

1. Put him as a starter in the minor leagues for some time, stretch him out, with the goal of him being a long-term starter. 

2. Trade him for the most impactful piece you can find right now  (fathom is right, Luis Castillo is an excellent potential fit here).

3. Put him in the bullpen in 2021 and figure things out afterwards.

If I had to say which gets the greatest overall value for the White Sox franchise, it's the first. If I had to pick which gets the greatest value for the 2021 and 2022 White Sox, and maximizes their chances of a World Series right now, it's the 2nd. If I had to pick the worst option for the White Sox, that minimizes his value and maximizes the risk of him being useless to them because he got hurt, it's the 3rd.

Hence, the White Sox are choosing the 3rd.

Number 1 isn't really an option though.  If he truly starts he will need to he shut down in July.  If you limit his innings to to 3 a start to pitch a full season, he is essentially a reliever. 

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Just now, SoxBlanco said:

This seems to be the point that people are missing. I don't understand what specific plan is preferred. Do you guys want him to start in the minors and then just get shut down in the middle of the season?

@southsider2k5, @Harold's Leg Lift, @Jack Parkman

I would do exactly that. Get him up to 100 innings, give or take a few, and then shut him down. He may even be effective enough as a starter that you could do some of those starts in the big leagues, but I can't speak to that until ST happens.

If you wanted and you thought he was ready, you could bring him back up in September as a reliever down the stretch, a-la David Price in his first year.

Making this extremely convenient...An additional starter named Michael Kopech probably will be coming up in June or early July and could take over additional innings.

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Just now, SoxBlanco said:

This seems to be the point that people are missing. I don't understand what specific plan is preferred. Do you guys want him to start in the minors and then just get shut down in the middle of the season?

@southsider2k5, @Harold's Leg Lift, @Jack Parkman

I said exactly what I though very early in this thread.  Start him off on an innings limit early in the season in the minors at like AA.  Have him start and go 3/4/5 innings for maybe 10-12 starts, then call him up and let him reliever the second half of the season.  Get him to around 100 to 120 innings if possible this season.  Obviously you can adjust based on how he works out and what else happens, but that is my ideal season.

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Just now, ptatc said:

Number 1 isn't really an option though.  If he truly starts he will need to he shut down in July.  If you limit his innings to to 3 a start to pitch a full season, he is essentially a reliever. 

Exactly. This is why I keep asking what specific plan is preferred. 

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Just now, ptatc said:

Number 1 isn't really an option though.  If he truly starts he will need to he shut down in July.  If you limit his innings to to 3 a start to pitch a full season, he is essentially a reliever. 

Why isn't that an option? That's exactly what a team wanting to develop him as a starter should do. 

It's not an option...for the 2021 White Sox because they're willing to sacrifice him to win now. Which is why...trading him should be considered a better option.

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2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I said exactly what I though very early in this thread.  Start him off on an innings limit early in the season in the minors at like AA.  Have him start and go 3/4/5 innings for maybe 10-12 starts, then call him up and let him reliever the second half of the season.  Get him to around 100 to 120 innings if possible this season.  Obviously you can adjust based on how he works out and what else happens, but that is my ideal season.

Will your plan better prepare him to be a starter in 2021?  I don't think so.  If he's only going to pitch about 100 innings this year, why not let him do it against major league hitters with our best coaches there to help him?

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2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Why isn't that an option? That's exactly what a team wanting to develop him as a starter should do. 

It's not an option...for the 2021 White Sox because they're willing to sacrifice him to win now. Which is why...trading him should be considered a better option.

I disagree. No one really wants a pitcher to stop pitching in July and sit for a few added months. They would prefer to stretch it out over the entire season.

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1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:

Will your plan better prepare him to be a starter in 2021?  I don't think so.  If he's only going to pitch about 100 innings this year, why not let him do it against major league hitters with our best coaches there to help him?

Yes.  This is 2021, so that is the plan for this year.  It also allow him to get half a season of conditioning and work as a starter, both to learn how to pace himself, build an innings base, and the mental approach of looking to go multiple innings instead of the batter to batter approach of relieving.

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5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I said exactly what I though very early in this thread.  Start him off on an innings limit early in the season in the minors at like AA.  Have him start and go 3/4/5 innings for maybe 10-12 starts, then call him up and let him reliever the second half of the season.  Get him to around 100 to 120 innings if possible this season.  Obviously you can adjust based on how he works out and what else happens, but that is my ideal season.

You could very easily do that. The counter point is if he is on that innings limit per start, why not just have him in the MLB all year?

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Just now, ptatc said:

You could very easily do that. The counter point is if he is on that innings limit per start, why not just have him in the MLB all year?

Because the Sox have plans of being a playoff team this season, and they don't need to cover 4-6 innings by the bullpen every time he starts.

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Just now, southsider2k5 said:

Because the Sox have plans of being a playoff team this season, and they don't need to cover 4-6 innings by the bullpen every time he starts.

I agree except the 4-6 innings per start for 12 starts is probably a little high.  The low end of 48 would work but the 72 on the high end would not leave him much to pitch in the MLB. Once he gets to the pen his innings need to decrease due to the number of times he warms up and such. 

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36 minutes ago, bmags said:

I do think this is a little different. Rodon did get minors time. And I am at least open to idea that the uncertainty around the minors is making them plan differently, like this guy may be too valuable os they are choosing a path they have more control over.

Right. I can agree with this. The internal discussions about Crochet have probably been endless among guys who know everything about the kid.It doesn't mean they are choosing the right path, just that all things considered it's likely the most logical one.Do the best they can do protect his arm , get some innings and help the team. Maybe Crochet agrees with that path.

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Just now, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Max Meyer (3rd pick in the draft) started 15 games in college.  Crochet started 13.  Meyer was affected by the pandemic (unless Crochet truly was the only one) and the Marlins are not planning on him pitching out of the major league bullpen.  They're developing him as a starter.  

The Marlins also have the Dodgers, Padres, Mets and Braves FAR ahead of them reaching the world series. Who is blocking the Sox? The Yankees and maybe the Rays? 

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3 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Max Meyer (3rd pick in the draft) started 15 games in college.  Crochet started 13.  Meyer was affected by the pandemic (unless Crochet truly was the only one) and the Marlins are not planning on him pitching out of the major league bullpen.  They're developing him as a starter.  

He threw over 144 innings total with a max of 76 and 27 in the pandemic year. Crochet threw 130 with a max of 65 and 3 in the pandemic year with being shut down due to a shoulder "issue" I won't call it an injury since you think having an issue significant enough to stop pitching not an injury.

You may feel comfortable enough that his arm won't explode with all of these factors. I wouldn't be and it doesn't look like the Sox are either.

Your described path is a possible one, I just don't think its the only one nor the best one.

The best one is probably the one SS2k5 is stating but even it has its drawbacks.

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9 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I agree except the 4-6 innings per start for 12 starts is probably a little high.  The low end of 48 would work but the 72 on the high end would not leave him much to pitch in the MLB. Once he gets to the pen his innings need to decrease due to the number of times he warms up and such. 

I mean if possible he could go more, but I see it like training for a marathon.  You don't go out and run 20 miles on the first day.  You work your way up to it by increasing bit by bit over time.

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1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

I mean if possible he could go more, but I see it like training for a marathon.  You don't go out and run 20 miles on the first day.  You work your way up to it by increasing bit by bit over time.

That's what I mean by your values are probably to high from where his starting point. He has been training for a 5K so far. He needs to take it slow to train for the marathon.

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3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

That's what I mean by your values are probably to high from where his starting point. He has been training for a 5K so far. He needs to take it slow to train for the marathon.

Isn't pitching 60 innings as a high leverage reliever comparable to all of a sudden trying to race Usain Bolt?

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