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2021 Plan for Kopech and Crochet


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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Isn't pitching 60 innings as a high leverage reliever comparable to all of a sudden trying to race Usain Bolt?

I wouldn't make that comparison as the pitcher gets rest between each pitch, innings and games. The 100 meters is 9 seconds  of all out everything.

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23 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

The Marlins also have the Dodgers, Padres, Mets and Braves FAR ahead of them reaching the world series. Who is blocking the Sox? The Yankees and maybe the Rays? 

Plus Meyers was a very successful college pitcher even if he pitched a lot in relief. And Meyer pitched until Covid shut him down . Crochet was not successful as a college pitcher and Covid did not shut him down , shoulder soreness did. Crochet is high risk/high reward with an electric arm. But unless he is a freak of nature he won't be able to sustain his stuff before he succumbs to injury. It happens to just about everybody who throw's 100 and twice in the last year he was shut down due to shoulder  soreness and forearm tightness. Take your pick TJ or shoulder surgery. One of them is coming.

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12 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Plus Meyers was a very successful college pitcher even if he pitched a lot in relief. And Meyer pitched until Covid shut him down . Crochet was not successful as a college pitcher and Covid did not shut him down , shoulder soreness did. Crochet is high risk/high reward with an electric arm. But unless he is a freak of nature he won't be able to sustain his stuff before he succumbs to injury. It happens to just about everybody who throw's 100 and twice in the last year he was shut down due to shoulder  soreness and forearm tightness. Take your pick TJ or shoulder surgery. One of them is coming.

I wouldn't say surgery is inevitable.  But they need to carefully build up his innings load in an attempt to avoid it.

 

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53 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Here's the trick with that. There are 3 options:

1. Put him as a starter in the minor leagues for some time, stretch him out, with the goal of him being a long-term starter. 

2. Trade him for the most impactful piece you can find right now, let the other team do that development for when they can compete in a couple years  (fathom is right, Luis Castillo is an excellent potential fit here).

3. Put him in the bullpen in 2021 and figure things out afterwards.

If I had to say which gets the greatest overall value for the White Sox franchise, it's the first. If I had to pick which gets the greatest value for the 2021 and 2022 White Sox, and maximizes their chances of a World Series right now, it's the 2nd. If I had to pick the worst option for the White Sox, that minimizes his value both now and in the long term and at the same time maximizes the risk of him being useless to them because he got hurt, it's the 3rd.

Hence, the White Sox are choosing the 3rd.

I think you are right on with 2 and 3 . I'd adjust 1 to say that him pitching at all, with how hard he throws ,there's going to be a good chance of injury anyway. You can stretch him out as a starter  in the minors, but he will still more than likely not be going longer than 3 innings every start until he reaches a point they feel he can do more. At some point you will have to slow him down because fatigue will definitely come into play which is why I think anyone mentioning 100 inning this year is going to be very disappointed.

The Sox just cannot ignore that he could help them win a World Series. You might think that is short sighted but that is why we all talk about White Sox baseball. We want to be able to win a Championship and have that electric arm help in any way he can. If the Sox can still use him in October I'd love to see it. If not then I'd be ecstatic to have him get through a whole minor league season as a starter with no MLB pitching uninjured with 75+ innings.

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2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I wouldn't say surgery is inevitable.  But they need to carefully build up his innings load in an attempt to avoid it.

 

When I look around MLB I don't see too many guys who have thrown 100MPH for too many years who haven't have surgery. Maybe you can name a few relievers maybe even a starter or 2 but there might be nothing the Sox can do to prevent it.

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5 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I think you are right on with 2 and 3 . I'd adjust 1 to say that him pitching at all, with how hard he throws ,there's going to be a good chance of injury anyway. You can stretch him out as a starter  in the minors, but he will still more than likely not be going longer than 3 innings every start until he reaches a point they feel he can do more. At some point you will have to slow him down because fatigue will definitely come into play which is why I think anyone mentioning 100 inning this year is going to be very disappointed.

The Sox just cannot ignore that he could help them win a World Series. You might think that is short sighted but that is why we all talk about White Sox baseball. We want to be able to win a Championship and have that electric arm help in any way he can. If the Sox can still use him in October I'd love to see it. If not then I'd be ecstatic to have him get through a whole minor league season as a starter with no MLB pitching uninjured with 75+ innings.

I don't think it's short sighted to bring him up to the big leagues after doing a certain number of innings in the minor leagues, because while they're burning a little service time, they're winning games down the stretch.  If you're developing him as a starter, and he gets a little bullpen burn, great! 

It's the "Full season in the big leagues as a reliever" I would question. You could trade him for something way more impactful than that, someone who would make this team better right now and in 2022. It hurts the 2021-2022 teams because they won't have whoever they would have gotten by trading Crochet, and it hurts the 2023 and on team because they don't have him as a starter. And on top of that, it holds all the injury risk with the White Sox. It's just the all-around riskiest, worst play. Even if it somehow works out in the end, he stays healthy and becomes a solid contributor and they win a title, it's a bad move and they won that title in spite of making a bad move.

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5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I don't think it's short sighted to bring him up to the big leagues after doing a certain number of innings in the minor leagues, because while they're burning a little service time, they're winning games down the stretch.  If you're developing him as a starter, and he gets a little bullpen burn, great! 

It's the "Full season in the big leagues as a reliever" I would question. You could trade him for something way more impactful than that, someone who would make this team better right now and in 2022. It hurts the 2021-2022 teams because they won't have whoever they would have gotten by trading Crochet, and it hurts the 2023 and on team because they don't have him as a starter. And on top of that, it holds all the injury risk with the White Sox. It's just the all-around riskiest, worst play. Even if it somehow works out in the end, he stays healthy and becomes a solid contributor and they win a title, it's a bad move and they won that title in spite of making a bad move.

And all those things are reasons why I have been advocating trading him. Options 1 and 3 involved him pitching and building up innings therefore risking that arm falling apart. It's definitely going to get very fatigued and maybe  by mid season starting games in the minors. Basically you prefer him pitching a whole season just because ideally that's what's best but that's going to require quite a few 1 inning appearances .

Lets say he can get 15 starts in the minors and averages 3 innings per start so maybe's he's at 45-50 innings by pitching May through August , then in Sept. give him some relief appearances in the minor and MLB . Maybe 6 appearances max going 1 or 2 innings. Let's say he average 1.1 innings, then he's perhaps up to 50-60 IP. Then the playoffs where hopefully he can help the team by pitching another 10+ innings in relief. Win a World Series. Build up his innings as a starter,  and he doesn't get injured . Is everybody happy ?

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6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

And all those things are reasons why I have been advocating trading him. Options 1 and 3 involved him pitching and building up innings therefore risking that arm falling apart. It's definitely going to get very fatigued and maybe  by mid season starting games in the minors. Basically you prefer him pitching a whole season just because ideally that's what's best but that's going to require quite a few 1 inning appearances .

Lets say he can get 15 starts in the minors and averages 3 innings per start so maybe's he's at 45-50 innings by pitching May through August , then in Sept. give him some relief appearances in the minor and MLB . Maybe 6 appearances max going 1 or 2 innings. Let's say he average 1.1 innings, then he's perhaps up to 50-60 IP. Then the playoffs where hopefully he can help the team by pitching another 10+ innings in relief. Win a World Series. Build up his innings as a starter,  and he doesn't get injured . Is everybody happy ?

That works for me. I especially like him being on an every 5 day schedule.

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1 hour ago, EloyJenkins said:

Not sure if it's been mentioned...but why not just make him the #5 freaking starter in MLB THIS season. (Make Lopez the 2-3 inning guy on his start days) Keep him on an innings count and Kopech replaces him in July

So you are advocating the Sox not get another starter this off season ? Cease and Crochet at number 4 and 5 ? That's not something most of us think is very wise for SP depth. Kopech would be a better choice as a 5 with Crochet in the minors. Kopech's arm surgery is behind him now and he has had some success in the minors. Both will be on an innings limit but Kopech is likely to give you more innings as a starter than Crochet. Crochet has never had any success as a starter and I would prefer he have that at some level before starting in MLB for the Sox. Cease and Kopech or Cease and Crochet would burn out the BP. We do need 1 more SP because no one really got any innings in the 2020 Covid season and there is going to be a lot of tired arms out there.

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10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

That works for me. I especially like him being on an every 5 day schedule.

Great so now we just need to know how much baseball is going to delay the MiLB season , when the MLB season is going to start and make it through Crochet's 1st year in the minor or in the majors uninjured. Piece of cake.  I still like option 2 best.

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36 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Great so now we just need to know how much baseball is going to delay the MiLB season , when the MLB season is going to start and make it through Crochet's 1st year in the minor or in the majors uninjured. Piece of cake.  I still like option 2 best.

Better than the choice the White Sox made.

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Just now, Balta1701 said:

I don’t know of many relievers who are kept on a schedule like that. Especially not on a team trying to win a pennant.

I though you meant in the minors. This obviously wouldn't work in the majors.

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5 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I though you meant in the minors. This obviously wouldn't work in the majors.

I’ve got zero problem with that if he’s not burning big league service time. Just get me more than 75 innings and work on the routine and the secondary stuff. If he’s in the big league bullpen in September and helps down the stretch, so much the better.

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12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Better than the choice the White Sox made.

I think pitching in the minors or majors is almost equal as far as injuries go. I will agree with you in principle that being a reliever in MLB could maximize injury potential but if he opens innings rather then coming in with men on base without the constant up and down prep that relievers usually have to do I am not as opposed to that as you are. I think you have have to keep him prepped as a starter on his throwing program and use him as the last man in the pen or a long reliever who doesn't actually pitch very long ,not like what you would expect from a typical long reliever . Mostly 1-3 innings and every 4th or 5th day. But I really don't see the Sox keeping him on the 25 all year long. He could start the season in the minors despite what Katz said . I think that no matter what he will be in the minors for some period of time in 2021.

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12 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I think pitching in the minors or majors is almost equal as far as injuries go. I will agree with you in principle that being a reliever in MLB could maximize injury potential but if he opens innings rather then coming in with men on base without the constant up and down prep that relievers usually have to do I am not as opposed to that as you are. I think you have have to keep him prepped as a starter on his throwing program and use him as the last man in the pen or a long reliever who doesn't actually pitch very long ,not like what you would expect from a typical long reliever . Mostly 1-3 innings and every 4th or 5th day. But I really don't see the Sox keeping him on the 25 all year long. He could start the season in the minors despite what Katz said . I think that no matter what he will be in the minors for some period of time in 2021.

I think the effort a pitcher puts into a big league game is likely a lot higher than a minor league game, and there’s ping to be way more pressure to extend outings or throw that strikeout pitch harder on a team that could compete for the AL. Plus, what’s the big league rule - don’t get beat on your second best pitch? We need him time to work on secondary stuff, without worrying about it if he struggles with it.

I also think any concept of “The Crochet Rules” being enforced by the big league team is fantasy. If Crochet isn’t supposed to pitch that day, but LaRussa needs him in innings 10-12, he will use him. And hell, those innings start with someone on! If you’ve got a roster spot on the big league team reserved for a guy you can’t use when you need him, you’ve created a real disadvantage.

I will rethink this is there’s no minor league season at all, the big league bullpen and some openers might be our best option. But this team will not give up big league games to develop Crochet as a starter, nor should they.

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2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

When I look around MLB I don't see too many guys who have thrown 100MPH for too many years who haven't have surgery. Maybe you can name a few relievers maybe even a starter or 2 but there might be nothing the Sox can do to prevent it.

Chapman. 

Verlander lasted until age 39. 

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16 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Chapman. 

Verlander lasted until age 39. 

Exactly my point. Outliers, freaks of nature and Chapman is a reliever. Guys like Bundy happen a lot more . Throw gas ,get injured and adjust  and if you are lucky you can become a starting pitcher but years down the line when you have been no help to the team that drafted you.

DeGrom still throws pretty hard after Tommy John in 2010 and surgery for nerve damage in the same elbow in 2016. In rookie ball he had TJ missed all of 2011 and the Mets didn't bring him up until 2014 when he was 26.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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  • 4 weeks later...
8 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

oh god. How stupid can you be.

 

Doesn’t sound stupid to me. Build up his innings while getting to work with Katz and contributing to the big league team. But I guess there’s no reason to rehash this argument. As I’ve pointed out throughout this thread, I agree with what the Sox are doing with Crochet. It’s such a unique situation because there aren’t guys like him with such a small amount of innings in previous years. Both options have advantages and disadvantages, but I prefer him working with our big league coaches to build up to 90-100 innings. 

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