Dominikk85 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Longenhagen is probably higher on Madrigal than most other publications. For example, Pipeline just did a 2018 redraft and didn’t even have Nick in the top 10. A think 50 FV grade is probably consensus given a complete lack of power potential at the moment. Yeah longenhagen did believe that madrigal would eventually grow into about 15 homer power which might not be in play anymore. But otoh if madrigal becomes an elite defender and baserunner he might be a 3 win player even with a 95-100 wrc+ bat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 32 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said: Yeah longenhagen did believe that madrigal would eventually grow into about 15 homer power which might not be in play anymore. But otoh if madrigal becomes an elite defender and baserunner he might be a 3 win player even with a 95-100 wrc+ bat. I still haven’t given up on Madrigal having some pop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 17 minutes ago, hi8is said: I still haven’t given up on Madrigal having some pop. I just don’t see it. It’s not like he has warning track power and just needs to add a few more feet. The problem is right now if he hits in in the air, it’s generally an out. Like it or not, he seems to be a line drive/ground ball hitter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldsox Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 hours ago, Flash said: Agree to disagree. Call me nuts. Flash, I can tell you're a smart guy who knows baseball, but really...... Moose is well into his 30's, has four years to go on his contract at $14-$20MM per year, and he has been a free agent three count em three times since 2017, without an overwhelming demand for his services. Bluntly, he is overpaid, and he's getting older. His stats are mediocre. Why would you give up Madrigal for him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 15 minutes ago, fathom said: I just don’t see it. It’s not like he has warning track power and just needs to add a few more feet. The problem is right now if he hits in in the air, it’s generally an out. Like it or not, he seems to be a line drive/ground ball hitter. I’m accounting for his injuries when looking at the small sample size we saw last year. Also accounting for physical growth and player development. He demonstrated more power prior to the injury in college... not saying he will be a 15 hr annual guy at all but think he will grow into some more power. That much, I haven’t given up on yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RagahRagah Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 19 minutes ago, hi8is said: I’m accounting for his injuries when looking at the small sample size we saw last year. Also accounting for physical growth and player development. He demonstrated more power prior to the injury in college... not saying he will be a 15 hr annual guy at all but think he will grow into some more power. That much, I haven’t given up on yet. It's pretty common for people here to immediately assume everything (bad) about a player after 1 rookie (or even 60 games). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, RagahRagah said: It's pretty common for people here to immediately assume everything (bad) about a player after 1 rookie (or even 60 games). For sure, except for Dunning. Easiest guy to project ever once he got traded. All he has to do is basically show up to the park next year to log a quick 200 IP, 4 WAR season with his eyes closed. Talk about a high floor. His ceiling? I don’t even know- last time I said Greg Maddux combined with Nolan Ryan, but that’s just insulting to King Dane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RagahRagah Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, fathom said: He’s never hit for power at any level. Not talking necessarily about power. After not even 60 games (he was injured a decent amount of that time, too), based on what I have seen here we have apparently surmised: 1. He will never have more power. 2. He will never have more pop in his bat. 3. He will always be a bad baserunner. 4. He will always think he is faster than he is. 5. More outfielders will play shallow every time now and thus, he will never get a base hit ever again. 6. He's short, so screw him. 7. Surely none of these things can ever change (being short is one he definitely can't but in all seriousness...), because God knows these things also always applied to his minor league career and his minor league career traits surely cannot ever apply to him growing as a major leage player. He will never improve. Probably because he's short. Damn midget. Does that cover all the bad takes? Everyone was writing off Moncada after less than 1 season here and look how that turned out. It's tiresome. No one has any damn patience. Need I remind people he hit .340 in his rookie season. And if you're gonna use "small sample size" as an excuse to discredit him then maybe you should... take your own advice with the criticisms of said sample size? Edited December 24, 2020 by RagahRagah 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rey21 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 I’d gladly trade Kopech for Castillo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 17 minutes ago, fathom said: He’s never hit for power at any level. Hit a home run rehabbing at the training site while injured and hit a home run the day before draft day. I think “he has hit with little power” is accurate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 44 minutes ago, oldsox said: Flash, I can tell you're a smart guy who knows baseball, but really...... Moose is well into his 30's, has four years to go on his contract at $14-$20MM per year, and he has been a free agent three count em three times since 2017, without an overwhelming demand for his services. Bluntly, he is overpaid, and he's getting older. His stats are mediocre. Why would you give up Madrigal for him? oldsox...I think you are confusing my old age with 'smarts' . Moustakas, when healthy, is a 2.5-3 WAR player. He hits left handed and with power. At $14M for '21 is he overpaid? Not really. Do I think Moose is a better player today and would bring us closer to the promised land?...yes. Would I seek a straight up trade with Cincy, Madrigal for Moose?...no, but its not out of the realm of sanity. The issue, as you correctly point out is contract value and control and, on both counts, you have to favor Madrigal. That said, the hypothetical trade I posited was Cease, Madrigal, Lopez and Rutherford for Castillo and Moose. I also stipulated that it would likely be viewed as too light by Cincy but, in my view, adding Castillo to this rotation would almost be unfair and, in the short term, Moose would be considerably more valuable than Madrigal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 21 minutes ago, Rey21 said: I’d gladly trade Kopech for Castillo. Reds wouldn't Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominikk85 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3 hours ago, oldsox said: Flash, I can tell you're a smart guy who knows baseball, but really...... Moose is well into his 30's, has four years to go on his contract at $14-$20MM per year, and he has been a free agent three count em three times since 2017, without an overwhelming demand for his services. Bluntly, he is overpaid, and he's getting older. His stats are mediocre. Why would you give up Madrigal for him? I think he means moose actually would be a negative compensation. He still can hit but overall his contract has negative value so including him would add salary to the package and thus lower the prospect price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominikk85 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Flash said: In the 5 years Yoan has been in MLB he is avergaged 1.6 WAR/yr. This was inflated due to his strong 2019 of 4 plus. Given recency bias of 0.7 WAR in 2020 as most models will have, and the fact that its an algorithm that doesn't conflate how publications rank him or whether or not he had Covid in the context of a $60M contract, one can understand how he has negative SV according to BTV. Again, let's not confuse SV with market value. Does this account for the shortened season? Moncada was worth 1.6 fWAR last year but prorated that would have been 4.2 war for a full season. Using that moncada averaged 4 war the last 3 seasons. Edited December 24, 2020 by Dominikk85 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 I thought something happened given that this thread is hot, only to find dozens of posts of people arguing about nothing. Gotta love SoxTalk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 I love the word “proprietary” used to describe a baseball player valuation formula. So funny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldsox Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 21 hours ago, Jerksticks said: I love the word “proprietary” used to describe a baseball player valuation formula. So funny Same here. I wonder how much was paid to the guy who created the BA formula 150 years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harold's Leg Lift Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 On 12/23/2020 at 6:40 PM, Dominikk85 said: Isnt 30 mil a bit light on madrigal? Longenhagen has him a 55 which is worth about 40-45m. The 30m would put him at more like a 50. Longenhagen had Kyle Lewis as a 45. We have stop using him as an appeal to authority. We know more than enough about Madrigal to be able to make our own evaluations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just now, Harold's Leg Lift said: Longenhagen had Kyle Lewis as a 45. We have stop using him as an appeal to authority. We know more than enough about Madrigal to be able to make our own evaluations. Agree with you on this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RagahRagah Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 9 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said: Longenhagen had Kyle Lewis as a 45. We have stop using him as an appeal to authority. We know more than enough about Madrigal to be able to make our own evaluations. Based on the constant bad takes on him on this site I really doubt that, honestly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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