Joe Musgrove Thread

[SoCalChiSox]

31 minutes ago, HoosierSox said:

Stiever + Rutherford. Who says no?

 

JR almost certainly would object.

I think I saw Musgrove would be eligible for arbitration in 2022....so if PIT wanted both Stiever and Rutherford, PIT would also need to send a little cash back, too. 

[South Side Hit Men]

I would have preferred trading for years of Musgrove over a few months of Lynn (with the pending reduction/elimination of 2021 baseball by the owners).

Hope they can make a deal work, would be a very good acquisition.

[iWiN4PreP]

Musgrove if healthy could have a sp1 type year 

[michelangelosmonkey]

4 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Musgrove if healthy could have a sp1 type year 

We have SO many good young pitchers that could be as good or better than Musgrove...we have a 23 year old 2B that just hit .340 and could give us 6 years of 3 WAR per year value at low salary.  Why would we want to do this?   Is Musgrove better than Lopez?  Each with 5 years.  Lopez is younger, Musgrove has 1 more WAR but Lopez a higher peak.  Lopez costs nothing and could break through with new pitching coach.   

[ron883]

28 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

We have SO many good young pitchers that could be as good or better than Musgrove...we have a 23 year old 2B that just hit .340 and could give us 6 years of 3 WAR per year value at low salary.  Why would we want to do this?   Is Musgrove better than Lopez?  Each with 5 years.  Lopez is younger, Musgrove has 1 more WAR but Lopez a higher peak.  Lopez costs nothing and could break through with new pitching coach.   

Madrigal ain't hitting .340 in a regular season. He also may put up a sub .030 ISO. The guy has absolutely no muscle on him. 

[hi8is]

4 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Madrigal ain't hitting .340 in a regular season. He also may put up a sub .030 ISO. The guy has absolutely no muscle on him. 

I could see him hitting at a clip that almost mirrors his BABIP - it’s actually well documented for hitters of his profile.

[iWiN4PreP]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

We have SO many good young pitchers that could be as good or better than Musgrove...we have a 23 year old 2B that just hit .340 and could give us 6 years of 3 WAR per year value at low salary.  Why would we want to do this?   Is Musgrove better than Lopez?  Each with 5 years.  Lopez is younger, Musgrove has 1 more WAR but Lopez a higher peak.  Lopez costs nothing and could break through with new pitching coach.   

Musgrove is a potential stud, his issues are health mainly... lopez has no skill, hes a dud.

[Dominikk85]

3 hours ago, SoCalChiSox said:

JR almost certainly would object.

I think I saw Musgrove would be eligible for arbitration in 2022....so if PIT wanted both Stiever and Rutherford, PIT would also need to send a little cash back, too. 

Stiever and rutherford would be a great price.

Longenhagen has stiever a 40+ and rutherford a 40.

I think he is a little too low on stiever and it should be more like 45 but still that would be a great price for a 28yo guy projected for like 3 war next season and 2022.

The sox would immediately do that trade but I think it would require a better headliner.

 

Madrigal would be too good though, I think it should be a 50 and a young higher upside 40+ or so.

His surplus value would come out at about 40m or so which would require a 50 and a 45 as return for him but madrigal as a 55 alone would be worth about 45m so that would be too much.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Musgrove is a potential stud, his issues are health mainly... lopez has no skill, hes a dud.

Gmab. Musgrove is a year older, has pitched 496 innings to Lopez’s 490, 4.3 rWAR for musgrove versus 3.2 for Lopez. Potential stud? I mean anyone could be but come on, that’s another Reynaldo Lopez you’re just imagining will work out with your pitching coach when the Astros and Pirates couldn’t do it.

[Vulture]

Since beginning of 2019, Musgrove and Lopez have both pitched 210 innings. Lopez allowed 80 walks and 44 home runs, musgrove 55 walks and 26 home runs. That’s a mighty wide divide Lopez would have to cross to get into Musgrove territory. If you’re looking at career war you’re ignoring Musgrove upward trend and Lopez’s downward spiral.

Edited December 25, 2020 by Vulture

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Vulture said:

Since beginning of 2019, Musgrove and Lopez have both pitched 210 innings. Lopez allowed 80 walks and 44 home runs, musgrove 55 walks and 26 home runs. That’s a mighty wide divide Lopez would have to cross to get into Musgrove territory

And over those 2 years, Musgrove pitched 210 innings and put up 2.1 rWAR. More than 20 Pitchers did that in 2020 alone! That makes him a decent 4th or 5th starter if this is a playoff team.

Now look, he’s better than Lopez, I don’t dispute that. But “better than a replacement level player” and “almost an average starter” is a long way from “a potential stud”. Anyone could be, we’ve seen crazier breakouts, Lopez could break out too, but come on, it’s not like Musgrove has no history here. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

13 minutes ago, Vulture said:

Since beginning of 2019, Musgrove and Lopez have both pitched 210 innings. Lopez allowed 80 walks and 44 home runs, musgrove 55 walks and 26 home runs. That’s a mighty wide divide Lopez would have to cross to get into Musgrove territory. If you’re looking at career war you’re ignoring Musgrove upward trend and Lopez’s downward spiral.

Interesting that you use 2019 as cutoff and not 2018 when Lopez put up a 3.4 War which is nearly double the best year of Musgrove.  Lopez has great stuff too.  Both are somewhat failed prospects...why trade for theirs?  

[Vulture]

I don’t consider fangraphs war valid considering they gave Lynn a 1.6 in a season in which he put up 123 ERA+ in 186 innings but 2.0 to Esteban Loiaza in a season he had 80 ERA+ in 152 innings, for example. Musgrove is clearly vastly superior to Lopez rather than “another Reynaldo Lopez.”

[Vulture]

5 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Interesting that you use 2019 as cutoff and not 2018 when Lopez put up a 3.4 War which is nearly double the best year of Musgrove.  Lopez has great stuff too.  Both are somewhat failed prospects...why trade for theirs?  

How’s that interesting? Isn’t the last two years more relevant than three years ago or did you fail to notice Lopez sucking balls the last two years? 25 more walks and 18 more home runs over exact number of innings. Not even close.

Edited December 25, 2020 by Vulture

[Vulture]

Or to put it another way, Lopez allowed 66% more home runs and 45% more walks

[Balta1701]

15 minutes ago, Vulture said:

I don’t consider fangraphs war valid considering they gave Lynn a 1.6 in a season in which he put up 123 ERA+ in 186 innings but 2.0 to Esteban Loiaza in a season he had 80 ERA+ in 152 innings, for example. Musgrove is clearly vastly superior to Lopez rather than “another Reynaldo Lopez.”

 

14 minutes ago, Vulture said:

How’s that interesting? Isn’t the last two years more relevant than three years ago or did you fail to notice Lopez sucking balls the last two years? 25 more walks and 18 more home runs over exact number of innings. Not even close.

 

5 minutes ago, Vulture said:

Or to put it another way, Lopez allowed 66% more home runs and 45% more walks

Dude you started this when you called Musgrove a “potential stud”. You haven’t even tried to support that statement. Are you going to? 

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 hour ago, Vulture said:

How’s that interesting? Isn’t the last two years more relevant than three years ago or did you fail to notice Lopez sucking balls the last two years? 25 more walks and 18 more home runs over exact number of innings. Not even close.

The two pitchers have pitched a combined 10 years.  Only one year were either of them a "stud" and that was Lopez in 2018...a year you choose to ignore. To call Lopez trash and Musgrove gold just seems confused.  They both have had a lot of chances and i wouldnt trade much for either...but i also wouldnt be shocked if either turned it around for a nice three year run. Maybe Lopez for Musgrove 

[Orlando]

 

In the right hands, this guy becomes a legit #2-3

Edited December 25, 2020 by Orlando

[ChiSoxFanMike]

16 minutes ago, Orlando said:

 

In the right hands, this guy becomes a legit #2-3

Musgrove’s talent + Katz’s coaching would have the potential to be amazing for the Sox. Not to mention that pitchers tend to get better once they leave Pittsburgh anyway.

[SoCalChiSox]

6 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

We have SO many good young pitchers that could be as good or better than Musgrove...we have a 23 year old 2B that just hit .340 and could give us 6 years of 3 WAR per year value at low salary.  Why would we want to do this?   Is Musgrove better than Lopez?  Each with 5 years.  Lopez is younger, Musgrove has 1 more WAR but Lopez a higher peak.  Lopez costs nothing and could break through with new pitching coach.   

I think 6 years of 3 WAR from Madrigal is not realistic unless he is both a GG caliber defender and like a .360 OBP guy. A 2 WAR guy sure but 3, much less 3 for 6 years in row is pushing it.

I dont want to move him either (unless its for like Snell) but I don't see him as a superstar either.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I think 6 years of 3 WAR from Madrigal is not realistic unless he is both a GG caliber defender and like a .360 OBP guy. A 2 WAR guy sure but 3, much less 3 for 6 years in row is pushing it.

I dont want to move him either (unless its for like Snell) but I don't see him as a superstar either.

It really comes down to the bat with Madrigal.  I know people are shitting on him over a couple base-running & fielding blunders, but I have zero concerns he won’t at least be above-average in both areas even if he’s not as good as originally advertised.  That being said, a 3 win outcome is very possible if he hits anywhere close to how he did last year.  Steamer is projecting him as a 108 wRC+ hitter next year and ultimately a 2.6 win player, with his BABIP regressing significantly but his ISO improving from amongst the lowest in baseball to what would only be the 10% decile of all qualified hitters.  IMO, he has a real chance to beat that wRC+ projection with a slightly higher contact rate / batting average and that alone could get him to 3.0 win mark if healthy.

While the complete lack of power will never be sexy, getting 2.5 to 3.0 wins out of the 2B spot for dirt cheap has real value for us as the rest of our young core starts to get expensive.  He’s most definitely movable for the right piece because of the lack of ceiling, but that also makes him less attractive to rebuilding clubs.  I wouldn’t move him for two years of Musgrove now that we have Lynn in the #2 spot and can simply buy a starter to serve as depth until Kopech is ready.  For better or worse, I think he’s our starting 2B for the foreseeable future as long he can find a way to consistently hit a +.300 clip with a ~.360 or better OBP.

Edited December 25, 2020 by Chicago White Sox

[thxfrthmmrs]

6 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

And over those 2 years, Musgrove pitched 210 innings and put up 2.1 rWAR. More than 20 Pitchers did that in 2020 alone! That makes him a decent 4th or 5th starter if this is a playoff team.

Now look, he’s better than Lopez, I don’t dispute that. But “better than a replacement level player” and “almost an average starter” is a long way from “a potential stud”. Anyone could be, we’ve seen crazier breakouts, Lopez could break out too, but come on, it’s not like Musgrove has no history here. 

 

bWAR is not a good stat to evaluate pitcher value and predict future performance. Use fWAR and Statcast, there is a huge difference between Musgrove and Lopez.

[michelangelosmonkey]

5 hours ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I think 6 years of 3 WAR from Madrigal is not realistic unless he is both a GG caliber defender and like a .360 OBP guy. A 2 WAR guy sure but 3, much less 3 for 6 years in row is pushing it.

I dont want to move him either (unless its for like Snell) but I don't see him as a superstar either.

Look at LeMahieu 3 years with Colorado...from 15-17.  He put up 10.3 WAR while hitting just 8 homer runs per year...he started hitting more home runs after that but he certainly had a 6 year stretch averaging 3 WAR.  Placido Polanco averaged 3 WAR for 14 years and only once hit more than 15 home runs.  Howie Kendrick hit a few more homers but was a worse fielder and had a six year stretch of 4 WAR.  Nellie Fox 10 year stretch of 5 WAR a year.  Rod Carew is the ceiling for little-power, slick fielding, fast 2B and he had 7 WAR a year for 7 years.  Half the board wants to trade away Madrigal for a bucket of balls and replace him with a 30 year old 1 WAR 2b with the idea that Madrigal is just a guy...based on a couple of fielding/baserunning errors as a 23 year old rookie by the same people that ignore his .380 OBP as a rookie and the mounds of scouts saying he will be a + fielder and + baserunner.  I wouldn't even trade him straight up for Snell...Snell is 28, had one amazing season but his other 4 he's average 1 WAR.  It's ok to not see Madrigal as a superstar.  NO one thought Placido Polanco was a superstar...he only made two All Star games...yet 42 WAR in 14 years is exactly the kind of career I expect Madrigal to have.  And in a team with a galaxy of stars...a guy that we never talk about but never strikes out, plays GG caliber 2b and gets on base with good speed.  Is REALLY valuable.         

[Dominikk85]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

It really comes down to the bat with Madrigal.  I know people are shitting on him over a couple base-running & fielding blunders, but I have zero concerns he won’t at least be above-average in both areas even if he’s not as good as originally advertised.  That being said, a 3 win outcome is very possible if he hits anywhere close to how he did last year.  Steamer is projecting him as a 108 wRC+ hitter next year and ultimately a 2.6 win player, with his BABIP regressing significantly but his ISO improving from amongst the lowest in baseball to what would only be the 10% decile of all qualified hitters.  IMO, he has a real chance to beat that wRC+ projection with a slightly higher contact rate / batting average and that alone could get him to 3.0 win mark if healthy.

While the complete lack of power will never be sexy, getting 2.5 to 3.0 wins out of the 2B spot for dirt cheap has real value for us as the rest of our young core starts to get expensive.  He’s most definitely movable for the right piece because of the lack of ceiling, but that also makes him less attractive to rebuilding clubs.  I wouldn’t move him for two years of Musgrove now that we have Lynn in the #2 spot and can simply buy a starter to serve as depth until Kopech is ready.  For better or worse, I think he’s our starting 2B for the foreseeable future as long he can find a way to consistently hit a +.300 clip with a ~.360 or better OBP.

Even with only a 100 wrc+ madrigal could be a 2.5 to 3 war guy. In 2018 for example ozzie albies had a 101 wrc+ and was worth 3.5 war.

Albies was very good with the glove but not andrelton simmons level either (third in the league at 3b).

So if madrigal can be a top3 defender at his position he could be a 3 war player at 2b or a 2.5 war if his defense is more middle of the pack.

I still also could see him becoming like a 10 homer guy and producing a 110 wrc+

 

[GradMc]

17 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

There’s no chance that Musgrove would cost Madrigal. 

They'd be foolish to trade Madrigal.

I'm sick of trade talk.

Open up the friggin wallet and sign FA difference makers.

In the post season, it's all about pitching.  

Bauer and Hendriks.

Reinsdorf with his poor owner routine got old with me decades ago. 

Oh I long for the day to watch affluent sportsmen take the reigns of ownership.

With the team they're assembling you're gonna need deep-pockets to not only keep this talented team together but to showcase them in a world class venue.

The Chicago White Sox can go from obscurity to a global brand with the right ownership and marketing campaign. 

 

Edited December 25, 2020 by GradMc