Joe Musgrove Thread

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Wow thats pretty hostile.  I wasnt being dense about his "bad" start..he had a total of 0 quality starts in 2020 before the wonder two.  He had two starts, in September, after his injury,  where he gave up 2 runs in 3 innings and 4 runs in 5 innings.  I thought those were bad two...as were several other ugly 2020 starts....thats how you end up with an era near 6 in mid September.   As for the corraborating scouts where you imply I'm an idiot..you gave one un-named high ranking NL "official".   Pirates VP of sales is a NL official.  Anyway Im tired of this.  Two inarguable facts-- JM was amazing his last two starts and he was terrible the previous 32. peace

You keeping saying this about his last 32 starts, but he put up a 3.91 FIP over those starts with good peripherals.  You keep anchoring on ERA as the end all be all for some reason and even then he was at 4.36 over this same period of time, so saying he was terrible is simply not true whether you consider advanced metrics or not.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Chicago White Sox

[michelangelosmonkey]

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You keeping saying this about his last 32 starts, but he put up a 3.91 FIP over those starts with good peripherals.  You keep anchoring on ERA as the end all be all for some reason and even then he was at 4.36 over this same period of time, so saying he was terrible is simply not true whether you consider advanced metrics or not.

No his last 32 starts from May 1st 2019 to mid September 2020 his ERA was 5.28.   And ultimately FIP should equal ERA...and I wrote that I went back and looked at several three year periods where a guy with a FIP half a run lower than his ERA portended a break out guy and in the two periods I found no examples.  Doesn't mean I'm right...doesn't mean you are wrong...it just means I'm very cautious about this.  And honestly...if Reylo had finished 2020 with the exact same two starts in late September against the exact same two teams...NO ONE on this board would be saying...this guy is a breakthrough #3 starter or maybe better.    We would all be saying...well that was weird...interesting...intriguing...but I don't trust it.   

[poppysox]

4 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I like Q because of his history with us, his being a lefty, even when he's not been very good the last three years he was basically as good as Musgrove 2018-20(by WAR not fWAR which I'm still a bit dubious of) and he will only cost money...plus they only need a two year window before I think they will have a number of these young guys blossom.  I don't want Musgrove blocking Cease, Crochet, Kopech development.    I still think they might get Bauer because I fully believe they will drop $150-200 mill on a contract in the next 12 months...I'm just not positive Bauer is the guy they want to do it for.  It's SO early in their window and they have proven to be willing to spend top 5 payroll in the 00's, 90's and 80's if the team is good.   The team is good...management has said they will spend...but they are still shopping.    

I prefer Q or Richards to Musgrove because of the only money part of the equation.  I think you are right with your view that JR would be willing to spring for the big bucks but I doubt he views Bauer to be worth the high end of that range.  Five years at 150 feels about right.

[michelangelosmonkey]

9 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

No his last 32 starts from May 1st 2019 to mid September 2020 his ERA was 5.28.   And ultimately FIP should equal ERA...and I wrote that I went back and looked at several three year periods where a guy with a FIP half a run lower than his ERA portended a break out guy and in the two periods I found no examples.  Doesn't mean I'm right...doesn't mean you are wrong...it just means I'm very cautious about this.  And honestly...if Reylo had finished 2020 with the exact same two starts in late September against the exact same two teams...NO ONE on this board would be saying...this guy is a breakthrough #3 starter or maybe better.    We would all be saying...well that was weird...interesting...intriguing...but I don't trust it.   

And just to have a bit of fun with Cherry Picking...his ten best starts in 2019:

68 Innings pitched, 84 strike outs to 18 walks, 1.19 ERA

Oh Reylo...how you tantalized us...and now you are unredeemable garbage.  

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

And just to have a bit of fun with Cherry Picking...his ten best starts in 2019:

68 Innings pitched, 84 strike outs to 18 walks, 1.19 ERA

Oh Reylo...how you tantalized us...and now you are unredeemable garbage.  

That’s great, but what did Lopez do materially different in those starts rather than in his bad ones?  If the answer is nothing, I’m not sure what you’re arguing other than almost all pitchers have good & bad starts which no one is debating.

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

That’s great, but what did Lopez do materially different in those starts rather than in his bad ones?  If the answer is nothing, I’m not sure what you’re arguing other than almost all pitchers have good & bad starts which no one is debating.

I'm arguing that somewhere inside of Reylo is an amazing pitcher.  I hope Katz can pull it out of him.  Nothing more than that.    

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I'm arguing that somewhere inside of Reylo is an amazing pitcher.  I hope Katz can pull it out of him.  Nothing more than that.    

Gotcha...I thought this was in regard to Musgrove.  Unfortunately for Lopez he has probably run out of starting opportunities and will need prove himself in the bullpen.  Maybe in shorter stints his stuff will play up and he’ll be able to maintain better focus.

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Gotcha...I thought this was in regard to Musgrove.  Unfortunately for Lopez he has probably run out of starting opportunities and will need prove himself in the bullpen.  Maybe in shorter stints his stuff will play up and he’ll be able to maintain better focus.

He’s argued that reylo is better than musgrove because of Lopez 2018 bWAR.

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Gotcha...I thought this was in regard to Musgrove.  Unfortunately for Lopez he has probably run out of starting opportunities and will need prove himself in the bullpen.  Maybe in shorter stints his stuff will play up and he’ll be able to maintain better focus.

Yes...there's a lot to hate about Lopez...but it's just hard to forget the 14 strikeout 6 inning game against the Tigers or the one hitter against the Indians late in the season.  He's only 27 and Katz...ever hopeful...but I agree we don't want to start the season with him as our fifth starter.  

[thxfrthmmrs]

3 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

He didn't have one AWEFUL game that drove down his stats.  That was Lance Lynn.  Again...his WAR (baseball reference) show's him for his whole career as a 1 WAR kind of a guy.  When people started throwing around his fWAR and all sorts of reasons why he is a hidden gem...I looked deeper.  Not sure why you are slamming me...if he had a long history of being really good and then had a down period because of arm troubles and I ignored that well then I'm a dope.   But why is what I'm saying not at least interesting?   I'm not saying it's conclusive...spin rates, and xfip and usage rates and whatever all sounds very sciency...but why have the results been so mediocre.  Especially when the two GREAT performances came from weird situations.  If you told me the New Orleans Saints pass defense was amazing and used as a data point their game against the Broncos where they held them to 1 completion and 13 yards of total passing offense...without the context that Denver was missing their top 4 quarterbacks because of COVID I would say the stats are a bit tainted.  I am fairly certain no team in 50 years has played 10 road games in 7 days.  Danny Duffy and his 5 ERA also shut out the Indians.    

So you simplify admit you choose to ignore these data points because you don’t understand it. His stats are only mediocre if you choose to ignore his best starts. If those starts are fluke performances you could ignore them, but they arent, they are dominant performances where he was mastering his curveball and slider. You could make up all the excuses they Cleveland and STL couldn’t hit (which is very funny to be honest), but the movement and command of those pitches would tough for any MLB hitters to hit (this is all backed by statcasts data, which I know you would continue to ignore because you simplify won’t take the time to learn).

[michelangelosmonkey]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

He’s argued that reylo is better than musgrove because of Lopez 2018 bWAR.

Stop it...I NEVER agued that Lopez is better than Musgrove...I argued Lopez and Musgrove were both 27+ year old failed top prospects and that Stiever + Lopez ++ is better than Musgrove.

[thxfrthmmrs]

4 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Stop it...I NEVER agued that Lopez is better than Musgrove...I argued Lopez and Musgrove were both 27+ year old failed top prospects and that Stiever + Lopez ++ is better than Musgrove.

Musgrove isn’t a failed to prospect by any means. He was always a mid to back up top of arm and he has been exactly that. He’s also a late bloomer poised to breakout after significantly improving his secondary pitches, think of guys like Arrieta and Morton.

[michelangelosmonkey]

Just now, thxfrthmmrs said:

So you simplify admit you choose to ignore these data points because you don’t understand it. His stats are only mediocre if you choose to ignore his best starts. If those starts are fluke performances you could ignore them, but they arent, they are dominant performances where he was mastering his curveball and slider. You could make up all the excuses they Cleveland and STL couldn’t hit (which is very funny to be honest), but the movement and command of those pitches would tough for any MLB hitters to hit (this is all backed by statcasts data, which I know you would continue to ignore because you simplify won’t take the time to learn).

You should have seen how great the Saints cornerbacks played the Bronco's WRs in that game where the Bronco's quarterback wasn't in the league two days before the game...ONE completion....13 yards passing...all the field cast data showing coverage rates were off the charts saying Saints secondary could be set for an amazing rise...or, you know, maybe it was just a weird thing that happened once.    

[thxfrthmmrs]

3 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

You should have seen how great the Saints cornerbacks played the Bronco's WRs in that game where the Bronco's quarterback wasn't in the league two days before the game...ONE completion....13 yards passing...all the field cast data showing coverage rates were off the charts saying Saints secondary could be set for an amazing rise...or, you know, maybe it was just a weird thing that happened once.    

Dumbest post I have seen on this site. You’re comparing a player who has never played that position at the pro level to a MLB pitcher who has shown moderate success at his position.

[michelangelosmonkey]

3 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Musgrove isn’t a failed to prospect by any means. He was always a mid to back up top of arm and he has been exactly that. He’s also a late bloomer poised to breakout after significantly improving his secondary pitches, think of guys like Arrieta and Morton.

Wow...Arrieta is a great example...27, garbage before then...but his FIP and ERA were pretty much the same except 2012 when there was a huge difference and maybe that's what the Cubs saw.   

[michelangelosmonkey]

Just now, thxfrthmmrs said:

Dumbest post I have seen on this site. You’re comparing a player who has never played that position at the pro level to a MLB pitcher who has shown moderate success at his position.

No I'm saying the Cards playing 3 doubleheaders in a week on the road, then having a day game after a night game...10 games in less than 7 days  on the road might lead to exhaustion and partly explain the best game of his career.  

 

[thxfrthmmrs]

5 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

No I'm saying the Cards playing 3 doubleheaders in a week on the road, then having a day game after a night game...10 games in less than 7 days  on the road might lead to exhaustion and partly explain the best game of his career.  

 

Cardinals playing all these games must have made Musgrove’s pitches spin better and move a lot more.

[michelangelosmonkey]

13 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Musgrove isn’t a failed to prospect by any means. He was always a mid to back up top of arm and he has been exactly that. He’s also a late bloomer poised to breakout after significantly improving his secondary pitches, think of guys like Arrieta and Morton.

 

 

1 minute ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Cardinals playing all these games must have made Musgrove’s pitches spin better and move a lot more.

And he decided to wait to unleash this masterful new pitching in the last 13 innings of what had been a season giving up nearly 6 runs a game.  I think our positions are pretty well set and your contempt for me is spilling over...so let's move in.  Still, the Arrieta comp is interesting.  

[Dominikk85]

7 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I don't get why you are ignoring his previous 32 starts before those last two fluky starts in 2020.   ERA of 5.28 in 32 starts...a full season of Reylo.   ERA is what actually happened.  xFIP is what some people think may have happened if what happened didn't happen...and as I wrote...FIP should be predictive...you should be able to get in your time machine and go back and find someone on a bad team that has a FIP 1/2 a run lower than his ERA and then see how that flower blossomed...and I went over two different three year periods from 10 and 13 years ago (arbitrarily) and basically found no one.  I wouldn't mind taking a flier on someone like that for nothing...but trading assets for that????   People on here are willing to trade Madrigal ++ for him.  

But you will also be hard pressed to find someone who maintains an era half a run worse than his FIP. Musgrove has thrown less than 500 innings in his career.

There are systemic fip under and overperformers but they are rather rare and you can't say that with certainty until you have 1000+ innings.

I would put way more stock into his FIP and k-bb rate than into era over an arbitrary amount of starts. In fact the highest negative FIP to era gap among active starters with 1000+ innings is Strasburg at .22. This likely means Musgroves .4 FIP to era gap is likely an artifact due to sample size and his FIP is a lot more predictive than his era.

Edited January 2, 2021 by Dominikk85

[Dick Allen]

12 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

But you will also be hard pressed to find someone who maintains an era half a run worse than his FIP. Musgrove has thrown less than 500 innings in his career.

There are systemic fip under and overperformers but they are rather rare and you can't say that with certainty until you have 1000+ innings.

I would put way more stock into his FIP and k-bb rate than into era over an arbitrary amount of starts. In fact the highest negative FIP to era gap among active starters with 1000+ innings is Strasburg at .22. This likely means Musgroves .4 FIP to era gap is likely an artifact due to sample size and his FIP is a lot more predictive than his era.

I am just leery about giving up too much for a guy who never has really done it, and he is 28.  Javy Vazquez had one good year with the Sox. It was when the team sucked. He was horrible the other 2 years once when they won 90 games, the other when they won the division, yet had a high WAR. His FIP was almost a full run lower than his actual ERA those seasons, IMO he was not accurately portrayed advanced stats wise. You would never have wanted him starting a must win game. His postseason ERA is over 10.00, yet his k rate is high.Same with Samardzija his lone season with the White Sox. You have to give him credit, he parlayed his football mentality, “young arm”, and advanced stats to 9 figures of earnings. But he was really never much more than mediocre. 
 

I wouldn’t give up too much to get Musgrove, but also wouldn’t be surprised if the Sox had a lot of interest. I know when they were shopping Sale and Q, Musgrove was a guy they really liked.

Edited January 2, 2021 by Dick Allen

[Vulture]

17 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

But you will also be hard pressed to find someone who maintains an era half a run worse than his FIP. Musgrove has thrown less than 500 innings in his career.

There are systemic fip under and overperformers but they are rather rare and you can't say that with certainty until you have 1000+ innings.

I would put way more stock into his FIP and k-bb rate than into era over an arbitrary amount of starts. In fact the highest negative FIP to era gap among active starters with 1000+ innings is Strasburg at .22. This likely means Musgroves .4 FIP to era gap is likely an artifact due to sample size and his FIP is a lot more predictive than his era.

FIP doesn’t measure runs so it can’t be half a run worse than ERA

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, Vulture said:

FIP doesn’t measure runs so it can’t be half a run worse than ERA

I don’t follow.

[Vulture]

I’m not so sure Madrigal is a top young player. Between his noodle armed lackluster defense, base running and complete lack of power he’s going to have to hit .330 to have any real value.

[Vulture]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t follow.

You said his fip is half a run worse than his ERA. I pointed out fip doesn’t measure runs, so it can’t be said to be half a run worse.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, Vulture said:

You said his fip is half a run worse than his ERA. I pointed out fip doesn’t measure runs, so it can’t be said to be half a run worse.

I didn’t say that, but FIP basically measures ERA so of course it can be compared to it.  A guy with a 4.00 ERA & 3.50 FIP would have an ERA a half run worse than his FIP.  I feel like I’m missing something painfully obvious here, because this is just basic math.