Vulture Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Musgrove has far superior walk and home run rates recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, ptatc said: FIP is only designed to be used as a stat to determine how the pitcher is performing. It has nothing to do with ERA. It uses HR+BB-K because theoretically those are the only things pitchers can control. It's not meant to equal runs because runs also include other players doing their job. I happen to disagree that those are the only things they can control but thats a different discussion. I think SIERA is a better stat because it at least uses a model of fielding that attempts to see how pitchers use the fielders. It has everything to do with ERA. This is one of the maddening debates I have ever witnessed on this board. FIP is an estimate of what a pitcher’s ERA would be independent of fielding, luck, and sequencing (i.e. the things they control). If you think there are other variables that a pitcher can control (implying that FIP is incomplete), that’s a different argument. However, saying FIP has nothing to do with ERA or can’t be compared to it is 100% wrong. That’s literally its entire purpose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Vulture said: Musgrove has far superior walk and home run rates recently Certainly not last year. Musgrove has definitely been more consistently healthy, but Smyly was notably better last year during the shortened outings including both of those stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarava Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said: I can’t see them moving Cease or Kopech, which means Madrigal would have to be the prospect in question. Did he suggest what position they’d be targeting? Has to be starting pitching right? I'm not so sure they wouldn't move either of them. I think Crochet is less likely to be moved than Kopech and Cease at this point. But if you're going for it and you trade for a good starting pitcher, you're going to have to give up something that stings a bit. I've said this name before...what about Kyle Hendricks? Who knows if the Cubs would move him with where they're at now. He's World Series tested. He's as consistent as any starter in baseball. He's on a nice contract, with 3 years and 42 mil left, plus an option year (not sure of the terms). He would probably fit in as our #2 behind Giolito, and ahead of Lynn and Keuchel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vulture Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2.2 hr/9 and 4.1 bb/9 vs 1.1 hr/9 and 2.5 bb/9 since beginning of 2019 though. I guess that could’ve been lag from not pitching for two years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 15 minutes ago, Vulture said: 2.2 hr/9 and 4.1 bb/9 vs 1.1 hr/9 and 2.5 bb/9 since beginning of 2019 though. I guess that could’ve been lag from not pitching for two years Yeah, his 2019 was terrible, but his 2020 was better. Musgrove is more consistently a weaker pitcher but a healthier one, Smyly seems to have a higher ceiling. The reason I bring that up is that Smyly was signed for 1 year, $11 million, with the Braves paying a premium to get the guy they wanted signed early. Musgrove is $3.75 million this year, with a more expensive Arb-3 year next year. If you write the deal as "Thompson, Adolfo, + x for $15 million that could then be spent on a FA", I don't feel all that impressed by the concept, but at some level "we're trading for Musgrove because we're too cheap to sign a mid-level FA" is doing exactly that. Hence my statement 15 or so posts ago - if we're in such a financial mess that we can't go out and sign a Smyly for $12 million to give what Musgrove might give, we shouldn't be willing to trade multiple guys with multiple years of control for Musgrove, even if they're some distance away from the big leagues. We need to be hoarding years of control instead, because that's how we find the money to sign guys - by having guys on our team in their first 4-5 years, when they are extra cheap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Just curious about something...if you had to pick between Drew Smyly and Joe Musgrove, for next year alone to cover the White Sox's needs, can you make a strong argument for Musgrove? (and yes I know Smyly isn't available). I would take Musgrove. 1) Three years younger. 2) Has recently put up a 170 inning season (Smyly hasn’t since 2016) and is less likely to tire out over the course of a full season. 3) Better xwOBA in small sample that was 2020 (.268 vs .287). 4) Solid xwOBA in larger sample that was 2019 (.312) while Smyly really struggled (probably due recovering from his injury, but still somewhat a red flag). 5) Higher spin rates / more movement on his breaking balls. I actually think Smyly is a pretty fascinating buy low guy, but I’d definitely have more confidence in Musgrove. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I would take Musgrove. 1) Three years younger. 2) Has recently put up a 170 inning season (Smyly hasn’t since 2016) and is less likely to tire out over the course of a full season. 3) Better xwOBA in small sample that was 2020 (.268 vs .287). 4) Solid xwOBA in larger sample that was 2019 (.312) while Smyly really struggled (probably due recovering from his injury, but still somewhat a red flag). 5) Higher spin rates / more movement on his breaking balls. I actually think Smyly is a pretty fascinating buy low guy, but I’d definitely have more confidence in Musgrove. I get it, but it's surprisingly closer than you think when you look at the stats isn't it? And when you write it as "we're trading all this stuff for Musgrove to avoid paying that modest sum", even moving Thompson and Adolfo doesn't sound particularly appealing. But that's what we're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iWiN4PreP Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Musgrove isn't going to cost much of anything. Easy buy. Then buy another SP for the hell of it. Get Musgrove and Kluber. No reason not to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, iWiN4PreP said: Musgrove isn't going to cost much of anything. Easy buy. Then buy another SP for the hell of it. Get Musgrove and Kluber. No reason not to. I mean in this thread it's been said the Pirates want a top-60 prospect or the equivalent for Musgrove.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iWiN4PreP Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: I mean in this thread it's been said the Pirates want a top-60 prospect or the equivalent for Musgrove.. The return on Bell was weak. They won't be getting much for Musgrove methinks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sambuca Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: I mean in this thread it's been said the Pirates want a top-60 prospect or the equivalent for Musgrove.. I honestly do not think a trade with Stiever as the “headliner” gets it done. If Stiever is in the package, the other piece(s) would be almost equal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almagest Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: I mean in this thread it's been said the Pirates want a top-60 prospect or the equivalent for Musgrove.. I like Musgrove fine, but no thanks on that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iWiN4PreP Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Pirates are giving up their players for salary relief. It won't take much of anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: I get it, but it's surprisingly closer than you think when you look at the stats isn't it? And when you write it as "we're trading all this stuff for Musgrove to avoid paying that modest sum", even moving Thompson and Adolfo doesn't sound particularly appealing. But that's what we're talking about. I totally get what you’re saying, although I don’t agree they’re as close you think they are. That being said, all else being equal, yeah I’d rather spend money than trade our prospects. I do think Musgrove is far more interesting than the free agents willing to take a 1/$10Mish deal though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Sarava said: I'm not so sure they wouldn't move either of them. I think Crochet is less likely to be moved than Kopech and Cease at this point. But if you're going for it and you trade for a good starting pitcher, you're going to have to give up something that stings a bit. I've said this name before...what about Kyle Hendricks? Who knows if the Cubs would move him with where they're at now. He's World Series tested. He's as consistent as any starter in baseball. He's on a nice contract, with 3 years and 42 mil left, plus an option year (not sure of the terms). He would probably fit in as our #2 behind Giolito, and ahead of Lynn and Keuchel. The problem is we can’t afford to trade these guys and manage to have enough depth now that Dunning is gone. Right now we still need to add a starter, so including Cease or Kopech in a package for one has us still short one. Plus we’d be selling low on both guys. I just can’t see it in all honesty...at least after the Lynn trade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 27 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said: Musgrove isn't going to cost much of anything. Easy buy. Then buy another SP for the hell of it. Get Musgrove and Kluber. No reason not to. Other than budgets, roster spots, and the development of our young arms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 27 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: I mean in this thread it's been said the Pirates want a top-60 prospect or the equivalent for Musgrove.. Where has this been said? I probably missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said: Pirates are giving up their players for salary relief. It won't take much of anything. He’d already be on the Sox if that were the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 34 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Where has this been said? I probably missed it. This was the post I was referencing. Notably a whole lot of people have suggested Madrigal in here, including a lot of mentions on the first 2 pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 hours ago, Balta1701 said: Just curious about something...if you had to pick between Drew Smyly and Joe Musgrove, for next year alone to cover the White Sox's needs, can you make a strong argument for Musgrove? (and yes I know Smyly isn't available). One thing I like about musgrove v smyly is Smyly had a velo increase this year. If that regresses like happens than who knows. Musgroves changes started with pitt parting ways with searage. Musgrove wasn’t a particularly bad fit for searage having already thrown a sinker, but they moved off the sinker and leaned into his great offspeed pitches. This article written last year lays out their hopes for their new pitching coach (who sounds a lot like Katz), and he ended up doing all those things and voila https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-deep-joe-musgrove-could-be-better-if-he-so-chooses/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drake Is Our Leader Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 (edited) wow Edited January 18, 2021 by Drake Is Our Leader 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleepy Harold Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 / fin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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