Joe Musgrove Thread

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

Is something like Stiever and Beard enough to get it done?

I would certainly do that in their spot, but I don’t know if they have better offers or if they have scouts that don’t like Stiever for whatever reason. He should have been roughly top 150 or so and borderline actually ranked in the top 100 last year by midseason if he had been good at AA, but AA didn’t happen and his velocity was down when he appeared in the big leagues so...? I’d do it easily for that deal, but maybe someone in their org is throwing up a big red flag.

[RagahRagah]

2 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

Is something like Stiever and Beard enough to get it done?

Don't we value Stiever enough to try to work into a package for an actually desirable pitcher?

We're really too used to having low standards to the point we have threads for Schwarber and Musgrove, my Lord.

Edited December 27, 2020 by RagahRagah

[striker]

2 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

Is something like Stiever and Beard enough to get it done?

It's hard to imagine another team won't beat that let alone that enticing Cherrington. I wouldn't do that. Maybe Brault for that offer.

Edited December 27, 2020 by striker

[Sarava]

1 hour ago, RagahRagah said:

Don't we value Stiever enough to try to work into a package for an actually desirable pitcher?

We're really too used to having low standards to the point we have threads for Schwarber and Musgrove, my Lord.

I think you're over-valuing Stiever if you think he will bring back something better than Musgrove - who IMO is fine as a #4/#5 starter.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Sarava

[Sambuca]

I do not get how people think having Musgrove in the rotation is the same or even worse than López.  
 

I also don’t think WAR should be used as a basis for who is a better pitcher, or even who has better statistics.  I find it far more useful and accurate for generally quantifying a position player.  

There’s really not much you need to look at to see how much better Musgrove is currently, but also how much better of a position he is in to progress next season.  López could easily be the worst pitcher in the league next year.  

Also, everyone is overvaluing Stiever.  He will not be headlining any package for a player like Musgrove with more than one year of control.  If Stiever is at the front of the trade, he will be paired with multiple equally “good” prospects.

[RagahRagah]

1 hour ago, Sarava said:

I think you're over-valuing Stiever if you think he will bring back something better than Musgrove - who IMO is fine as a #4/#5 starter.

Perhaps I am. But I'd rather contribute pieces towards trades for something we actually need. Otherwise I see no reason not to just sign Quintana (and we don't even need to do that).

[michelangelosmonkey]

29 minutes ago, Sambuca said:

I do not get how people think having Musgrove in the rotation is the same or even worse than López.  
 

I also don’t think WAR should be used as a basis for who is a better pitcher, or even who has better statistics.  I find it far more useful and accurate for generally quantifying a position player.  

There’s really not much you need to look at to see how much better Musgrove is currently, but also how much better of a position he is in to progress next season.  López could easily be the worst pitcher in the league next year.  

Also, everyone is overvaluing Stiever.  He will not be headlining any package for a player like Musgrove with more than one year of control.  If Stiever is at the front of the trade, he will be paired with multiple equally “good” prospects.

I think you are misrepresenting the argument.  The argument is Lopez is a failed prospect who in the last three years has a higher peak (game score or WAR) than Musgrove and you don't have to trade an asset for Lopez...let alone multiple. Also the worst pitcher in baseball in 2018 worked with Katz and became a top 10 pitcher in baseball and we wonder if Katz can do the same for the potential of Lopez.   I for one think Musgrove is overvalued...if you look at his season last year his last two starts in late September were great...but other than that he had a 6 ERA.  In his only good year he had a fantastic April 2019 but after that had a 5.3 ERA...in the no-DH NL.  Musgrove is 28 and if you see some kind of star in here I'm not sure what you are looking at.  As for overvaluing Stiever...seems like the board is undervaluing him.  People are ready to trade him for anything because of a lower than expected velocity in 6 innings in his first major league experience (where Cooper was probably telling him to sacrifice velocity for accuracy).  He was their #6 prospect a year ago when Dane Dunning was #5, is 2 years younger than DD, and is a better athlete with better pure stuff than DD and the board lost their minds over trading DD for a top 10 pitcher in baseball.  If, as you suggest we trade Stiever and two other top 10 prospects for Musgrove, I fear for our future.   

[SoxBlanco]

These numbers are pretty damn good, aren’t they?

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:

These numbers are pretty damn good, aren’t they?

In isolation it looks good...but if he can't put it together in meaningful ways in a 6 inning pitching performance what does that matter?  He was drafted by the Blue Jays and they traded him,  Houston had him and they traded him (and Houston is not a dumb team).   He's 28 now...he peaked at #8 best prospect for Astros six years ago...and we want to trade Stiever our #6 prospect, who's 23, ++ for him?   Honestly why is Quintana not just about as good and costs nothing (For the XFIP guys that had Musgrove as the 35th best pitcher in baseball over the last three years...Quintana was right behind him and he's basically free).  

[Jerksticks]

21 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

In isolation it looks good...but if he can't put it together in meaningful ways in a 6 inning pitching performance what does that matter?  He was drafted by the Blue Jays and they traded him,  Houston had him and they traded him (and Houston is not a dumb team).   He's 28 now...he peaked at #8 best prospect for Astros six years ago...and we want to trade Stiever our #6 prospect, who's 23, ++ for him?   Honestly why is Quintana not just about as good and costs nothing (For the XFIP guys that had Musgrove as the 35th best pitcher in baseball over the last three years...Quintana was right behind him and he's basically free).  

Yea I just don’t get it

[Sambuca]

21 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I think you are misrepresenting the argument.  The argument is Lopez is a failed prospect who in the last three years has a higher peak (game score or WAR) than Musgrove and you don't have to trade an asset for Lopez...let alone multiple. Also the worst pitcher in baseball in 2018 worked with Katz and became a top 10 pitcher in baseball and we wonder if Katz can do the same for the potential of Lopez.   I for one think Musgrove is overvalued...if you look at his season last year his last two starts in late September were great...but other than that he had a 6 ERA.  In his only good year he had a fantastic April 2019 but after that had a 5.3 ERA...in the no-DH NL.  Musgrove is 28 and if you see some kind of star in here I'm not sure what you are looking at.  As for overvaluing Stiever...seems like the board is undervaluing him.  People are ready to trade him for anything because of a lower than expected velocity in 6 innings in his first major league experience (where Cooper was probably telling him to sacrifice velocity for accuracy).  He was their #6 prospect a year ago when Dane Dunning was #5, is 2 years younger than DD, and is a better athlete with better pure stuff than DD and the board lost their minds over trading DD for a top 10 pitcher in baseball.  If, as you suggest we trade Stiever and two other top 10 prospects for Musgrove, I fear for our future.   

I am not misrepresenting the argument.  There’s been a lot of different points being made and argued within your exact interpretation/description of “the argument.”

The Giolito and Katz point is irrelevant to me saying López could realistically end up being the worst pitcher in baseball next year.  I also don’t think we can sit here and expect a Hail Mary from Katz on López or any of our young pitchers for that matter.  I’m hopeful but it doesn’t change how bad of a pitcher López is right now and very well could be next year as well.  I’m confused why López should even be a talking point in defense of acquiring Musgrove.  López is a non-factor at this point in a quest to start wining championships immediately. 
 

You can keep cherry picking good starts and bad Musgrove starts, but his peripherals are consistently superior to López.
 

And the way we look at pitchers is way off if now you’re also comparing Stiever to Dunning in terms of a pitcher, prospect, talent, trade asset.  That’s just  not accurate right now, I’m sorry.  

 

[Sambuca]

I also never said anything about Musgrove being a “star.”

[RagahRagah]

46 minutes ago, Sambuca said:

I am not misrepresenting the argument.  There’s been a lot of different points being made and argued within your exact interpretation/description of “the argument.”

The Giolito and Katz point is irrelevant to me saying López could realistically end up being the worst pitcher in baseball next year.  I also don’t think we can sit here and expect a Hail Mary from Katz on López or any of our young pitchers for that matter.  I’m hopeful but it doesn’t change how bad of a pitcher López is right now and very well could be next year as well. I’m confused why López should even be a talking point in defense of acquiring Musgrove. López is a non-factor at this point in a quest to start wining championships immediately. 
 

You can keep cherry picking good starts and bad Musgrove starts, but his peripherals are consistently superior to López.
 

And the way we look at pitchers is way off if now you’re also comparing Stiever to Dunning in terms of a pitcher, prospect, talent, trade asset.  That’s just  not accurate right now, I’m sorry.  

 

Because it is easily possible that López is not beyond repair and there is reason to believe more than before that it might be possible, and that that situation is preferable to giving up anything, let alone some of our notable prospects, to acquire somebody that isn't going to move the needle at all. It's just a waste.

[michelangelosmonkey]

5 minutes ago, Sambuca said:

I am not misrepresenting the argument.  There’s been a lot of different points being made and argued within your exact interpretation/description of “the argument.”

The Giolito and Katz point is irrelevant to me saying López could realistically end up being the worst pitcher in baseball next year.  I also don’t think we can sit here and expect a Hail Mary from Katz on López or any of our young pitchers for that matter.  I’m hopeful but it doesn’t change how bad of a pitcher López is right now and very well could be next year as well.  I’m confused why López should even be a talking point in defense of acquiring Musgrove.  López is a non-factor at this point in a quest to start wining championships immediately. 
 

You can keep cherry picking good starts and bad Musgrove starts, but his peripherals are consistently superior to López.
 

And the way we look at pitchers is way off if now you’re also comparing Stiever to Dunning in terms of a pitcher, prospect, talent, trade asset.  That’s just  not accurate right now, I’m sorry.  

 

Ok the only absurd comment made is "Lopez could be the worst starting pitcher in baseball next year".   Of course Lopez could be...or Musgrove or Kershaw...we don't know the future until it happens.  What Lopez is, and it has been said over and over again...is a once exciting pitcher that seems to be failed.  What Musgrove is is a mediocre pitcher on his third organization that is a year older than Lopez, has about the same career WAR and outside of two end of the season starts in late September of COVID year had a 5.5 ERA the previous 160 low pressure innings (Pirates bad) he's pitched against the non-DH league.  And still NO ONE HAS SAID Lopez>Musgrove...people have been saying Musgrove is not so much better that you give up a top 6 prospect...let alone top 6 ++.   And it has also been said that Quintana for free is better than Musgrove for a 3 assets.   

As for your weird take on Stiever vs Dunning...why?   Here is 2019 MLB Pipeline scouting grades   

Pitcher A Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 50

Pitcher B  Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 50

Pitcher A sat out 2019 with Tommy John Surgery

Pitcher B pitched 145 innings in 2019 and had nearly 10K/9 and a 6-1 Strike out to walk rate.   

Pitcher A is three years older than Pitcher B 

Pitcher A threw 34 pretty average major league innings last year

Pitcher B threw 6 pretty bad major league innings last year.

And your position is that Pitcher A is worth more than a top ten pitcher in baseball and Pitcher B is worthless?  Interesting.  

 

[Dam8610]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Ok the only absurd comment made is "Lopez could be the worst starting pitcher in baseball next year".   Of course Lopez could be...or Musgrove or Kershaw...we don't know the future until it happens.  What Lopez is, and it has been said over and over again...is a once exciting pitcher that seems to be failed.  What Musgrove is is a mediocre pitcher on his third organization that is a year older than Lopez, has about the same career WAR and outside of two end of the season starts in late September of COVID year had a 5.5 ERA the previous 160 low pressure innings (Pirates bad) he's pitched against the non-DH league.  And still NO ONE HAS SAID Lopez>Musgrove...people have been saying Musgrove is not so much better that you give up a top 6 prospect...let alone top 6 ++.   And it has also been said that Quintana for free is better than Musgrove for a 3 assets.   

As for your weird take on Stiever vs Dunning...why?   Here is 2019 MLB Pipeline scouting grades   

Pitcher A Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 50

Pitcher B  Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 50

Pitcher A sat out 2019 with Tommy John Surgery

Pitcher B pitched 145 innings in 2019 and had nearly 10K/9 and a 6-1 Strike out to walk rate.   

Pitcher A is three years older than Pitcher B 

Pitcher A threw 34 pretty average major league innings last year

Pitcher B threw 6 pretty bad major league innings last year.

And your position is that Pitcher A is worth more than a top ten pitcher in baseball and Pitcher B is worthless?  Interesting.  

 

Lance Lynn was not a Top 10 pitcher in baseball in 2020 and will not be in 2021. A great deal of your argument here relies on hyperbole and an inability to distinguish between MiLB levels.

[michelangelosmonkey]

6 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

Lance Lynn was not a Top 10 pitcher in baseball in 2020 and will not be in 2021. A great deal of your argument here relies on hyperbole and an inability to distinguish between MiLB levels.

Are you drunk?  Lance Lynn the last three years by any metric is a top ten pitcher in baseball...though in fairness I didn't use the 2021 stats that you see in your head.  It also seems you prefer to use the last two starts in September of the COVID year as the entire basis for comparison of pitchers and if we can all agree that this is the way to do it...you win....Musgrove is WAY better than Lynn.   As far as me not understanding Milb levels....wow...there are LEVELS in the minor leagues???  That's why I come to you for insight...you not only see the future but you also have keen insight into arcane knowledge like "AA" and "A" baseball.   Maybe my problem in analysis is I stuck to age, Pipeline scouting stats, athleticism, track record, and multiple rating sites showing DD #5 and Stiever #6 in Sox system when I should have used your 2021 "vision" stats and the last two starts in COVID year (though please ignore DD's last two starts and concentrate more on his 2021 stats) to come to my hyperbolic claim that Stiever isn't garbage.  For you convenience here is the actual definition of hyperbole as you seem to be so very confused:  Hyperbole: 1) obvious and intentional exaggeration.  2) an extravagant statement or figure of speech not intended to be taken literally

[Rounding_Third]

17 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I don't think Pitt will overvalue him or be inclined to keep him, they will want a tolerable return for him, but they absolutely know they're rebuilding. They had more of a tie to Josh Bell than to Musgrove, and their GM is fairly new and knows exactly the kind of mess he has to rebuild. They won't give him away for nothing, they could conceivably hold him to the trade deadline if the market remains cold, but I would seriously doubt they'd hold him through next offseason (and would be surprised and disappointed in their GM if he did). They will just want a fair deal, and that probably doesn't even mean a top 100 prospect, it means a decent prospect from some team and maybe a filler/gamble piece.

Pitt-based articles (editorials so take it for what its worth) are pretty much in unison that Pirates will hold out for a top prospect for Musgrove; maybe even as high as top 60 and that the Lynn-Dunning trade shifted market a little to the seller's advantage for pitching.  Your trade deadline point makes a lot of sense, too, Pitt gets more value at that time vs the pennant team(s) in need; including Sox.  But it sure looks like the Sox want to go within org for #4-5; Cease & Kopech most likely.  They expect Kopech on opening day roster.  As much as I'd like a FA starter, they have a good plan.  In case of need they still can still make a deal before the deadline.  With the 2020 revenue losses, the 2021 season still hanging on covid & vaccine, the CBA expiration, it gives them a few extra months to play it out.   And there's a decent possibility that both Cease & Kopech could be very good.       

Edited December 27, 2020 by Rounding_Third

[Sarava]

9 hours ago, RagahRagah said:

Because it is easily possible that López is not beyond repair and there is reason to believe more than before that it might be possible, and that that situation is preferable to giving up anything, let alone some of our notable prospects, to acquire somebody that isn't going to move the needle at all. It's just a waste.

Giving Lopez another shot in the rotation makes me cringe. I mean, it probably will happen when injuries occur at some point in 2021. But that's the only path that is acceptable to me.

The Sox need to get a #4/5 starter, period. Be it Quintana, Musgrove or someone else. I would worry that if it's Quintana or someone else on the free agent market, that might take away the dollars that could otherwise be used on a shutdown closer. And I keep thinking back to 2016, where the Indians and Cubs rode shutdown pens to the World Series. We shouldn't underestimate what a killer pen could do for the Sox.

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, Sarava said:

Giving Lopez another shot in the rotation makes me cringe. I mean, it probably will happen when injuries occur at some point in 2021. But that's the only path that is acceptable to me.

The Sox need to get a #4/5 starter, period. Be it Quintana, Musgrove or someone else. I would worry that if it's Quintana or someone else on the free agent market, that might take away the dollars that could otherwise be used on a shutdown closer. And I keep thinking back to 2016, where the Indians and Cubs rode shutdown pens to the World Series. We shouldn't underestimate what a killer pen could do for the Sox.

If we’re serious about competing this year, then we need to sign a legit #4 type starter, have Kopech start the year in AAA and serve as the #6 starter, and use Lopez as a reliever and potential #7 starter in the event of multiple injuries.  We should NOT consider Reynaldo as a place-holder until Kopech is ready / service time manipulated and hand him a major league starter role.  Now is the time to see him what he can do coming out of the pen in shorter stints and based on Katz’s comments that sounds like the likely plan for him next year.

[hi8is]

A Yankees site weighs in on their view of Musgrove.

https://yanksgoyard.com/2020/12/27/yankees-rumors-pirates-joe-musgrove-not-an-option/amp/

[Dominikk85]

Musgrove is way better than lopez. Lopez good 2018 was fueled by massive babip luck.

Musgrove has a 4.2 career fip (3.7 over the last 3 seasons) while musgrove has a 4.9 career fip (5 over the last 3).

Lopez does have some upside and a good arm but apart from control issues he also doesn't really have a great pitch, by pVal at fangraphs really no pitch is positive.

Obviously with better command and some axis adjustment that could change but the time is ticking for him.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Dominikk85

[bmags]

54 minutes ago, hi8is said:

A Yankees site weighs in on their view of Musgrove.

https://yanksgoyard.com/2020/12/27/yankees-rumors-pirates-joe-musgrove-not-an-option/amp/

“. Musgrove feels like a shrewd addition for a team looking for formidable depth in the No. 4 or No. 5 spots, not a team desperately in need of a No. 2 arm.”

[Dominikk85]

19 minutes ago, bmags said:

“. Musgrove feels like a shrewd addition for a team looking for formidable depth in the No. 4 or No. 5 spots, not a team desperately in need of a No. 2 arm.”

The sox situation is different though, they could of course use a two but a good 4 would be ok too as their top 3 are not extremely dominant but definitely above average.

I mean giolito, Lynn, keuchel, musgrove/Quintana and cease/kopech would definitely be one of the better rotations in baseball. Not dodgers level of course but probably top 5 in the majors.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Dominikk85

[hi8is]

13 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

The sox situation is different though, they could of course use a two but a good 4 would be ok too as their top 3 are not extremely dominant but definitely above average.

I mean giolito, Lynn, keuchel, musgrove/Quintana and cease/kopech would definitely be one of the better rotations in baseball. Not dodgers level of course but probably top 5 in the majors.

Yea but I believe some here have been arguing here that Musgrove will be better than Lynn... which I still don’t see.

[Dam8610]

9 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Are you drunk?  Lance Lynn the last three years by any metric is a top ten pitcher in baseball...though in fairness I didn't use the 2021 stats that you see in your head.  It also seems you prefer to use the last two starts in September of the COVID year as the entire basis for comparison of pitchers and if we can all agree that this is the way to do it...you win....Musgrove is WAY better than Lynn.   As far as me not understanding Milb levels....wow...there are LEVELS in the minor leagues???  That's why I come to you for insight...you not only see the future but you also have keen insight into arcane knowledge like "AA" and "A" baseball.   Maybe my problem in analysis is I stuck to age, Pipeline scouting stats, athleticism, track record, and multiple rating sites showing DD #5 and Stiever #6 in Sox system when I should have used your 2021 "vision" stats and the last two starts in COVID year (though please ignore DD's last two starts and concentrate more on his 2021 stats) to come to my hyperbolic claim that Stiever isn't garbage.  For you convenience here is the actual definition of hyperbole as you seem to be so very confused:  Hyperbole: 1) obvious and intentional exaggeration.  2) an extravagant statement or figure of speech not intended to be taken literally

More hyperbole isn't going to fix the previous hyperbole, nor will attributing arguments to me that I didn't make, nor will insult humor. You talk about age in relation to Dunning and Steiver, while completely ignoring that Dunning has had both AA and MLB success while Steiver hasn't had any real success above A ball. The problem with your analysis is that you refuse to consider age and amount of control of Lynn and Musgrove while making a big stink about a 3 year age difference between a pitcher who has had success both in the high minors and MLB and a pitcher who hasn't had success above A ball, all while calling Steamer projections "[my] 2021 'vision' stats". No one said Musgrove is better than Lynn, though I wouldn't be surprised if Musgrove has a better 2021 than Lynn, nor would I be surprised if Lynn were better than Musgrove. The things that makes Musgrove a much more attractive acquisition than Lynn is 1) that he would likely only cost Steiver, who is a much more volatile asset than Dunning, to get, 2) once obtained, the Sox would have 3 years of control of Musgrove, and 3) at 28, Musgrove still has room for growth. Lower acquisition cost, more control, and growth potential are always attractive qualities in a potential acquisition, and all things Lynn lacked. Also, since you like hyperbole so much, feel free to look this up, but the basic difference that Steamer sees in 2021 Dunning and 2021 Lynn is IP totals. Dunning projects at 3/4 of the IP of Lynn and 3/4 of the WAR.