Joe Musgrove Thread

[hi8is]

6 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

hyperbole

Is that some type of super good creole dish from the south?

How is it pronounced, hyper-bowl-lee??

[shakes]

34 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Is that some type of super good creole dish from the south?

How is it pronounced, hyper-bowl-lee??

If you don't know what hyperbole means than you are the dumbest human being that ever lived, or this is the worst joke in the history of mankind.

[hi8is]

55 minutes ago, shakes said:

you are the dumbest human being that ever lived

I do not deserve this honor. Welcome to Soxtalk.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

More hyperbole isn't going to fix the previous hyperbole, nor will attributing arguments to me that I didn't make, nor will insult humor. You talk about age in relation to Dunning and Steiver, while completely ignoring that Dunning has had both AA and MLB success while Steiver hasn't had any real success above A ball. The problem with your analysis is that you refuse to consider age and amount of control of Lynn and Musgrove while making a big stink about a 3 year age difference between a pitcher who has had success both in the high minors and MLB and a pitcher who hasn't had success above A ball, all while calling Steamer projections "[my] 2021 'vision' stats". No one said Musgrove is better than Lynn, though I wouldn't be surprised if Musgrove has a better 2021 than Lynn, nor would I be surprised if Lynn were better than Musgrove. The things that makes Musgrove a much more attractive acquisition than Lynn is 1) that he would likely only cost Steiver, who is a much more volatile asset than Dunning, to get, 2) once obtained, the Sox would have 3 years of control of Musgrove, and 3) at 28, Musgrove still has room for growth. Lower acquisition cost, more control, and growth potential are always attractive qualities in a potential acquisition, and all things Lynn lacked. Also, since you like hyperbole so much, feel free to look this up, but the basic difference that Steamer sees in 2021 Dunning and 2021 Lynn is IP totals. Dunning projects at 3/4 of the IP of Lynn and 3/4 of the WAR.

I mean, to be fair, is it really ok to say "Stiever hasn't had success above A ball" when he didn't get a chance to have success above A-ball and it wasn't his fault, it was due to a virus and due to the pathetic response of the US Government? This isn't like saying that he got stuck at A-ball because of an injury or because he struggled at AA, this is "AA didn't exist."

One other point from this, Dane Dunning had 3/4 of the WAR of Lynn in 2021, that would be...one heck of a bad deal for the White Sox. Take on nearly 10 million, give up 6 years of control, get 1 or 1.25 extra WAR in 2021 in the process because the pitcher you gave up was that good as a rookie? 

[shakes]

19 minutes ago, hi8is said:

I do not deserve this honor. Welcome to Soxtalk.

?

[RagahRagah]

2 hours ago, shakes said:

If you don't know what hyperbole means than you are the dumbest human being that ever lived, or this is the worst joke in the history of mankind.

Even though he was being funny, if you think that defines who the dumbest person who has ever lived is, you need to get out more.

[shakes]

1 hour ago, RagahRagah said:

Even though he was being funny, if you think that defines who the dumbest person who has ever lived is, you need to get out more.

Yes, I know. Did you not catch the hyperbole in my joke? That was the point. 

[RagahRagah]

6 hours ago, shakes said:

Yes, I know. Did you not catch the hyperbole in my joke? That was the point. 

I will see your hyperbole and raise you another hyperbole.

[michelangelosmonkey]

12 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

More hyperbole isn't going to fix the previous hyperbole, nor will attributing arguments to me that I didn't make, nor will insult humor. You talk about age in relation to Dunning and Steiver, while completely ignoring that Dunning has had both AA and MLB success while Steiver hasn't had any real success above A ball. The problem with your analysis is that you refuse to consider age and amount of control of Lynn and Musgrove while making a big stink about a 3 year age difference between a pitcher who has had success both in the high minors and MLB and a pitcher who hasn't had success above A ball, all while calling Steamer projections "[my] 2021 'vision' stats". No one said Musgrove is better than Lynn, though I wouldn't be surprised if Musgrove has a better 2021 than Lynn, nor would I be surprised if Lynn were better than Musgrove. The things that makes Musgrove a much more attractive acquisition than Lynn is 1) that he would likely only cost Steiver, who is a much more volatile asset than Dunning, to get, 2) once obtained, the Sox would have 3 years of control of Musgrove, and 3) at 28, Musgrove still has room for growth. Lower acquisition cost, more control, and growth potential are always attractive qualities in a potential acquisition, and all things Lynn lacked. Also, since you like hyperbole so much, feel free to look this up, but the basic difference that Steamer sees in 2021 Dunning and 2021 Lynn is IP totals. Dunning projects at 3/4 of the IP of Lynn and 3/4 of the WAR.

The only actual argument prior to this that I can find from you in this thread is that Lynn was not a top ten pitcher in 2020 (6th in  CY voting....ERA of 2.53 with the most innings pitched in the majors before last start in late September) and if you use a reasonable time frame of 2 years (FG 5th in WAR) or 3 years (FG 8th in WAR) he is clearly a top ten pitcher.   And let's get this out of the way upfront...I don't care about "future stats" whether they come from inside your head or Zips or Steamer or whatever...you are taking what someone thinks might happen in the future as the foundation of your arguments and at that point it would be better to say something like...my gut tells me that Lynn is going to fall off the mountain...and I can accept that...I argued strongly here last year that EE was a terrible idea for the same reason...stats said he would be good but my gut said he was ready to fall off the cliff.      

As for Musgrove your argument about  him being worth more because he is controlled for more years suggests that this is a good thing ignoring my point which is from May 1st 2019 to September 19th 2020...which is his most recent 32 starts excepting his last two starts in late September in the COVID year...his ERA is 5.40.   And yes his FIP was better...but he committed four of the errors himself.  And most of that was against DH less NL and playing in the low pressure environment  of Pittsburgh.  You can throw all sorts of stats at me but he has not been historically good, he's 28, he's been traded twice by smarter teams than Pittsburgh and you want to give up actual assets to get him.  

Your next argument is that it's fine to give up Stiever for the not historically good Musgrove because Stiever isn't that good and not nearly comparable to Dunning.   I like Dunning and I think it was a fair trade.  I showed you scouting evaluations from the most recent season that they pitched without COVID crazy and they were basically rated exactly the same...and almost all rating sites had them as #5 and 6 in the Sox system.  Further age is a HUGE variable in rating prospects and Stiever is much younger than Dunning.  In fact the whole board was super excited about Stiever after his first mlb start where he gave up 1 run in 3 2/3 and struck out 3 and we were polishing up his hall of fame plaque and then he got shelled against the Reds and suddenly he's worthless and we can't get rid of him soon enough (and oddly ignoring DD giving up 8 ER in his last 7 innings).   Stiever is an exciting pitching prospect and I'm fine with giving him up someday but not for a guy that has not really shown that he is anything but a failed prospect.  (which is where Lopez discussion came in because we have our own failed pitcher with great stuff).   

Finally your argument about Dunning being basically as good as Lynn based on future stats???  Dane pitched a great game against KC and a great game against Pittsburgh in September.  Outside of that he gave up 6 runs a game and was walking 4.5 a game in his other five starts. (And gave up 2 hits to four hitters in the playoffs).   So this great crystal ball machine you base your arguments on sees a guy coming off of major arm surgery...that pitched two pretty good games against the two worst offenses in baseball in September of the COVID year but other than that he was pretty close to garbage...and next year he is going to be nearly as good as 5th best pitcher in baseball over the last 2 seasons?  Maybe...could happen.   

Edited December 28, 2020 by michelangelosmonkey
typo

[Dam8610]

29 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

The only actual argument prior to this that I can find from you in this thread is that Lynn was not a top ten pitcher in 2020 (6th in  CY voting....ERA of 2.53 with the most innings pitched in the majors before last start in late September) and if you use a reasonable time frame of 2 years (FG 5th in WAR) or 3 years (FG 8th in WAR) he is clearly a top ten pitcher.   And let's get this out of the way upfront...I don't care about "future stats" whether they come from inside your head or Zips or Steamer or whatever...you are taking what someone thinks might happen in the future as the foundation of your arguments and at that point it would be better to say something like...my gut tells me that Lynn is going to fall off the mountain...and I can accept that...I argued strongly here last year that EE was a terrible idea for the same reason...stats said he would be good but my gut said he was ready to fall off the cliff.      

As for Musgrove your argument about  him being worth more because he is controlled for more years suggests that this is a good thing ignoring my point which is from May 1st 2019 to September 19th 2020...which is his most recent 32 starts excepting his last two starts in late September in the COVID year...his ERA is 5.40.   And yes his FIP was better...but he committed four of the errors himself.  And most of that was against DH less NL and playing in the low pressure environment  of Pittsburgh.  You can throw all sorts of stats at me but he has not been historically good, he's 28, he's been traded twice by smarter teams than Pittsburgh and you want to give up actual assets to get him.  

Your next argument is that it's fine to give up Stiever for the not historically good Musgrove because Stiever isn't that good and not nearly comparable to Dunning.   I like Dunning and I think it was a fair trade.  I showed you scouting evaluations from the most recent season that they pitched without COVID crazy and they were basically rated exactly the same...and almost all rating sites had them as #5 and 6 in the Sox system.  Further age is a HUGE variable in rating prospects and Stiever is much younger than Dunning.  In fact the whole board was super excited about Stiever after his first mlb start where he gave up 1 run in 3 2/3 and struck out 3 and we were polishing up his hall of fame plaque and then he got shelled against the Reds and suddenly he's worthless and we can't get rid of him soon enough (and oddly ignoring DD giving up 8 ER in his last 7 innings).   Stiever is an exciting pitching prospect and I'm fine with giving him up someday but not for a guy that has not really shown that he is anything but a failed prospect.  (which is where Lopez discussion came in because we have our own failed pitcher with great stuff).   

Finally your argument about Dunning being basically as good as Lynn based on future stats???  Dane pitched a great game against KC and a great game against Pittsburgh in September.  Outside of that he gave up 6 runs a game and was walking 4.5 a game in his other five starts. (And gave up 2 hits to four hitters in the playoffs).   So this great crystal ball machine you base your arguments on sees a guy coming off of major arm surgery...that pitched two pretty good games against the two worst offenses in baseball in September of the COVID year but other than that he was pretty close to garbage...and next year he is going to be nearly as good as 5th best pitcher in baseball over the last 2 seasons?  Maybe...could happen.   

Your entire timeframe on Lynn is heavily influenced by a highly unlikely to be repeated 2019 where he put up 6.8 WAR at age 32. Aside from that clear outlier, Lynn has basically been a mid 3 WAR pitcher his entire career. Even the 2020 you tout as being so great would only project out to 4 WAR, and you can't cherry pick out his last two starts because you don't like them, they're also events that happened. It's not a "gut feeling" I have that Lynn isn't going to be the 2019 version, the phenomenon I believe will take place is called "reversion to the mean", and the predictive stats see it coming as well. There is no measure that does not heavily weight his outlier 2019 by which Lance Lynn is a top 10 pitcher in baseball.

Regarding Musgrove, you seem to be confusing the terms "more attractive acquisition" and "better player". I like Musgrove as an acquisition option because he's likely to be a 3 WAR pitcher over the next 3 years, which is something that would slot in very nicely in the 4 spot of the rotation and very very nicely in the 5 spot if 1 (in 2021) or 2 (in 2022 and 2023) of Kopech, Cease, and Crochet work out, because 3 WAR is essentially what a playoff team wants out of its 3 starter. If you're getting that type of production from your 5 starter, you're through the moon happy. Again you cherry picked stats to try to make Musgrove look bad, but the overall trend arrow on him is up, he's 28, and the Pirates have a history,  especially recently,  of squandering talented arms only to have them go on to fantastic success elsewhere.

Regarding Steiver vs. Dunning, there's a point where prospect grades stop mattering and MLB performance starts mattering, otherwise Mookie Betts would be a below average hitter struggling to keep his job rather than a perennial MVP candidate on the best team in baseball, and Shane Bieber would be struggling to hold on to his #5 rotation spot instead of being the reigning AL Cy Young award winner. I don't care about prospect grades, Dunning had success at MLB, and looks like he'll be a 2-3 WAR pitcher if he pitches a full season in 2020. That's a solid 3 or 4 starter with room for growth. That's also why comparing Steiver to him is a bit unfair to Steiver, who is 23 and hasn't had success above A ball. I know for some reason that isn't a big deal, but there are a lot of pitchers with Steiver's resume or similar that never make it to MLB. His outcome range is too volatile to know he'll even pitch in MLB at this point. Comparing that to a pitcher who has already developed himself into a ML 3-4 starter, there's no real comparison. I don't care what prospect grades or rankings say.

You keep missing my point on the Dunning v. Lynn thing, so I'll just state it this way: if the Rangers get 3/4 of the WAR from Dunning in 2021 that the White Sox get from Lynn, which is not an incredibly unlikely outcome, then the Sox got fleeced by the Rangers in that deal.

[he gone.]

I've always been a Musgrove guy going back to his days in Houston. He's been a fantasy draft candidate for me almost every single year. Just a solid, solid pitcher. I'd definitely give up the likes of Stiever/Collins to get it done, however would not do it for Madrigal. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

4 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Your entire timeframe on Lynn is heavily influenced by a highly unlikely to be repeated 2019 where he put up 6.8 WAR at age 32. Aside from that clear outlier, Lynn has basically been a mid 3 WAR pitcher his entire career. Even the 2020 you tout as being so great would only project out to 4 WAR, and you can't cherry pick out his last two starts because you don't like them, they're also events that happened. It's not a "gut feeling" I have that Lynn isn't going to be the 2019 version, the phenomenon I believe will take place is called "reversion to the mean", and the predictive stats see it coming as well. There is no measure that does not heavily weight his outlier 2019 by which Lance Lynn is a top 10 pitcher in baseball.

Regarding Musgrove, you seem to be confusing the terms "more attractive acquisition" and "better player". I like Musgrove as an acquisition option because he's likely to be a 3 WAR pitcher over the next 3 years, which is something that would slot in very nicely in the 4 spot of the rotation and very very nicely in the 5 spot if 1 (in 2021) or 2 (in 2022 and 2023) of Kopech, Cease, and Crochet work out, because 3 WAR is essentially what a playoff team wants out of its 3 starter. If you're getting that type of production from your 5 starter, you're through the moon happy. Again you cherry picked stats to try to make Musgrove look bad, but the overall trend arrow on him is up, he's 28, and the Pirates have a history,  especially recently,  of squandering talented arms only to have them go on to fantastic success elsewhere.

Regarding Steiver vs. Dunning, there's a point where prospect grades stop mattering and MLB performance starts mattering, otherwise Mookie Betts would be a below average hitter struggling to keep his job rather than a perennial MVP candidate on the best team in baseball, and Shane Bieber would be struggling to hold on to his #5 rotation spot instead of being the reigning AL Cy Young award winner. I don't care about prospect grades, Dunning had success at MLB, and looks like he'll be a 2-3 WAR pitcher if he pitches a full season in 2020. That's a solid 3 or 4 starter with room for growth. That's also why comparing Steiver to him is a bit unfair to Steiver, who is 23 and hasn't had success above A ball. I know for some reason that isn't a big deal, but there are a lot of pitchers with Steiver's resume or similar that never make it to MLB. His outcome range is too volatile to know he'll even pitch in MLB at this point. Comparing that to a pitcher who has already developed himself into a ML 3-4 starter, there's no real comparison. I don't care what prospect grades or rankings say.

You keep missing my point on the Dunning v. Lynn thing, so I'll just state it this way: if the Rangers get 3/4 of the WAR from Dunning in 2021 that the White Sox get from Lynn, which is not an incredibly unlikely outcome, then the Sox got fleeced by the Rangers in that deal.

So Lance Lynn is a 3 WAR pitcher.  Ignoring last year where he was 6th in CY YOUNG voting and had an ERA of 2.50 and pitched the most innings in baseball but gave up 9 ER in a meaningless last start of the year that skewed his stats?   And still he had 2.2 WAR which = 5.9 in normal year (162/60=2.7 multiplier).  So LL has put up in career order WAR of 2, 2.1, 3.6, 3.4, 3.2, arm trouble year, 7.6, 5.9 and you see what??? 

And Musgrove is a 3 WAR pitcher in spite HIS career WAR which has been 0.5, 0.1, 1.3, 1.8 and 1.3 (using the 2.7 multiplier to be fair).

And Dane Dunning is going to be a 3 WAR guy next year based on TWO good games against the worst offenses in baseball...and lets ignore all other data as that would be cherry picking.   

And Stiever is nothing because at 23 he only had ONE good game in the majors and one bad start...and we can ignore the 6-1 K/BB rate prior and all the scouts and evaluations because, oh shut up.  

OK...really not a lot of room to argue with this.   I feel soundly defeated.  

[GREEDY]

4 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

 I feel soundly defeated.  

I can't decide if you are underwhelmed by Musgrove or just don't want him in particular?

He makes sense if Hahn is on a tight budget. The veteran free agent equivalent option (under 4 million) will not be a peach.  Those claiming to prefer Quintana or Richards as the alternative will need to find 5 million+ in the couch cushions.  

 

[michelangelosmonkey]

5 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

I can't decide if you are underwhelmed by Musgrove or just don't want him in particular?

He makes sense if Hahn is on a tight budget. The veteran free agent equivalent option (under 4 million) will not be a peach.  Those claiming to prefer Quintana or Richards as the alternative will need to find 5 million+ in the couch cushions.  

 

If Musgrove was a free agent I'm fine with that.  I think Quintana makes way more sense because he doesn't cost anything and in almost every season of his career he's been better than Musgrove.   But I think giving up your #6 prospect for a guy that has never had an actually good year and yet comparing him to a 3 WAR starter is crazy talk.  I honestly still think they sign Bauer and I believe the JR is cheap is nonsense...we had a top 5 payroll in mid 2000's when the team was good, a top 5 payroll in the 1990's when the team was good...and mid 80's when they signed Carlton Fisk to a huge contract.   I think Sox will spend $175 mill (top five budget now) when the time is right...and them being judicious shoppers now is sensible...they will make a big splash...the off season isn't done and maybe trade deadline is a better time to shop.    

[RagahRagah]

12 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

I can't decide if you are underwhelmed by Musgrove or just don't want him in particular?

He makes sense if Hahn is on a tight budget. The veteran free agent equivalent option (under 4 million) will not be a peach.  Those claiming to prefer Quintana or Richards as the alternative will need to find 5 million+ in the couch cushions. 

 

Where on earth do statements like this come from, as if the Sox don't have any money to spend?

[GREEDY]

1 hour ago, RagahRagah said:

Where on earth do statements like this come from, as if the Sox don't have any money to spend?

How about where I said in the exact same paragraph "IF HAHN IS ON A TIGHT BUDGET"?  

I prefer Bauer... so there.  Find the other 20 million per year.  You know they have the money to spend.  

Edited December 28, 2020 by GREEDY

[GREEDY]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

If Musgrove was a free agent I'm fine with that.

Why debate Musgrove's value and ability then? 

I'm glad your taek is a simple one:  don't trade assets, spend.  Which if you go back and see was my exact take as well.  

 

[RagahRagah]

57 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

How about where I said in the exact same paragraph "IF HAHN IS ON A TIGHT BUDGET"?  

I prefer Bauer... so there.  Find the other 20 million per year.  You know they have the money to spend.  

If we can't spend 5 mil on a starter lol

[South Side Hit Men]

9 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

If we can't spend 5 mil on a starter lol

Hell, JR still hasn’t paid for a meal since getting a Diners Club card in the 1960s.

 

 

[Rounding_Third]

2 hours ago, GREEDY said:

I can't decide if you are underwhelmed by Musgrove or just don't want him in particular?

He makes sense if Hahn is on a tight budget. The veteran free agent equivalent option (under 4 million) will not be a peach.  Those claiming to prefer Quintana or Richards as the alternative will need to find 5 million+ in the couch cushions.  

 

With Musgrove at $3.75m, Quintana would probably only be another $1-2m over that.  Richards probably > $5m over and outside the "tight budget" approach.  There are a few other FA's (previously posted) that have similar stats as Musgrove's that would probably get around the same salary.  He'd be a nice addition but why give up prospects when you don't have to?  Anyway, as much as I'd like to see them acquire another SP, right now it sounds like they're going with what that got at 4&5 and possibly do a trade before the deadline, if needed. If they get a SP before ST, it probably means something's changed with Cease or Kopech status. Not trying to predict anything, it just sounds like they're pretty confident with what they have.    

[Dominikk85]

3 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

So Lance Lynn is a 3 WAR pitcher.  Ignoring last year where he was 6th in CY YOUNG voting and had an ERA of 2.50 and pitched the most innings in baseball but gave up 9 ER in a meaningless last start of the year that skewed his stats?   And still he had 2.2 WAR which = 5.9 in normal year (162/60=2.7 multiplier).  So LL has put up in career order WAR of 2, 2.1, 3.6, 3.4, 3.2, arm trouble year, 7.6, 5.9 and you see what??? 

And Musgrove is a 3 WAR pitcher in spite HIS career WAR which has been 0.5, 0.1, 1.3, 1.8 and 1.3 (using the 2.7 multiplier to be fair).

And Dane Dunning is going to be a 3 WAR guy next year based on TWO good games against the worst offenses in baseball...and lets ignore all other data as that would be cherry picking.   

And Stiever is nothing because at 23 he only had ONE good game in the majors and one bad start...and we can ignore the 6-1 K/BB rate prior and all the scouts and evaluations because, oh shut up.  

OK...really not a lot of room to argue with this.   I feel soundly defeated.  

To be fair his fWAR is quite a bit higher,last 3 years 2.2, 3.3 and 1 (2.7 over full season).

That is a 2.7 average over the last 3 seasons.

It depends on how much you believe his fip underperformance is systemic (last 3 years 4.23 era and 3.7 fip).

There is probably some skill involved but the pirates also were a pretty bad team defensively so that might have inflated his era a little too compared to his fip.

[Dam8610]

3 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

So Lance Lynn is a 3 WAR pitcher.  Ignoring last year where he was 6th in CY YOUNG voting and had an ERA of 2.50 and pitched the most innings in baseball but gave up 9 ER in a meaningless last start of the year that skewed his stats?   And still he had 2.2 WAR which = 5.9 in normal year (162/60=2.7 multiplier).  So LL has put up in career order WAR of 2, 2.1, 3.6, 3.4, 3.2, arm trouble year, 7.6, 5.9 and you see what??? 

And Musgrove is a 3 WAR pitcher in spite HIS career WAR which has been 0.5, 0.1, 1.3, 1.8 and 1.3 (using the 2.7 multiplier to be fair).

And Dane Dunning is going to be a 3 WAR guy next year based on TWO good games against the worst offenses in baseball...and lets ignore all other data as that would be cherry picking.   

And Stiever is nothing because at 23 he only had ONE good game in the majors and one bad start...and we can ignore the 6-1 K/BB rate prior and all the scouts and evaluations because, oh shut up.  

OK...really not a lot of room to argue with this.   I feel soundly defeated.  

You can't remove bad starts just because you don't like them. Lynn's fWAR was 1.5 last year, which works out to 4 with a 2.7 multiplier. If his last start was worth -0.7 WAR, I find that to be a pretty significant data point to consider. Honestly, I hope Lynn defies both the aging curve and career norms and is as good as you think he will be, I just personally don't want the White Sox to bet their 2021 season on it.

Musgrove was a 3.3 fWAR pitcher in 2019 and a 2.7 fWAR pitcher in 2020 using the multiplier. That's a 3 WAR pitcher to me. Sorry you don't see it that way.

Steamer projects Dunning at 2.4 WAR next year based on 149 IP. If that performance level holds over more IP, he will be worth more than that. If there is a higher performance level over 149 IP, he will be worth more than that. Yes, there are a lot of variables, but there's a decent chance (I'd say ~30%) Dunning could be worth 3 WAR next year.

You really need to stop with the hyperbole. Steiver's range of outcomes is more volatile based on his body of work than Dunning's. He could end up a 5 WAR/yr pitcher or never see MLB again. That volatility makes Steiver less valuable.

Again with the hyperbole. The numbers point to what I'm saying, accept it or don't, but that won't change.

[hi8is]

17 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

You can't remove bad starts just because you don't like them. Lynn's fWAR was 1.5 last year, which works out to 4 with a 2.7 multiplier. If his last start was worth -0.7 WAR, I find that to be a pretty significant data point to consider. Honestly, I hope Lynn defies both the aging curve and career norms and is as good as you think he will be, I just personally don't want the White Sox to bet their 2021 season on it.

Musgrove was a 3.3 fWAR pitcher in 2019 and a 2.7 fWAR pitcher in 2020 using the multiplier. That's a 3 WAR pitcher to me. Sorry you don't see it that way.

Steamer projects Dunning at 2.4 WAR next year based on 149 IP. If that performance level holds over more IP, he will be worth more than that. If there is a higher performance level over 149 IP, he will be worth more than that. Yes, there are a lot of variables, but there's a decent chance (I'd say ~30%) Dunning could be worth 3 WAR next year.

You really need to stop with the hyperbole. Steiver's range of outcomes is more volatile based on his body of work than Dunning's. He could end up a 5 WAR/yr pitcher or never see MLB again. That volatility makes Steiver less valuable.

Again with the hyperbole. The numbers point to what I'm saying, accept it or don't, but that won't change.

You say hyperbole, I say hyper-bowl-lee.

[Sleepy Harold]

Looks like this may be heating up a bit. 

[Whisox05]